Betting Advice
Horse Racing Systems
Horse racing systems are a way of betting without the
need to think. Some Pros don't believe in
them, whereas I use both horse racing systems & method
styles of betting, although you could argue
that a method is in a way a system, a method
tends to be flexible, a system is not.
I give free horse racing systems qualifiers and the members systems qualifiers.
If you're new to betting or membership, its
advised to select 1-3 systems that suits you,
taking into account the SR (strike rate),
ROI% (return on investment), and number of
qualifiers. Once you've got your head around
using a system, and have made a bit of money
you can then progress to another system.
Only use as many free horse racing systems as your Betting Bank can
support. The minimum I recommend for a betting bank is £50 for Win bets, and £100 for lays.
You follow a system qualifier whether it
is 100/1 or 1/100, and you back it with the
specified stake according to your selected
staking plan. To deviate in anyway results
in the system becoming a method, and will
probably result in a loss, so in simple terms;
if you pick and choose system qualifiers,
then you have made it flexible, so it is
no longer a system.
Never expect a system to make you instant
profits, they are likely to go into negative
equity 1-3 times in the first year while
it builds the bank up and stabilises. There
is no quick way in betting of getting rich,
I spend 10hrs+, 365 days a year, and I've
been a Pro for years. Its more than a full
time job, and if you don't have the passion
for it, you'll never win no matter what betting
service you use. A good knowledge of maths
and statistics is also needed, without these
you may struggle.
The majority of punters go from one betting service to another looking for fast profits, and finishing the year having spent a fortune, lost a fortune, and start the New Year ready to repeat it all again!
The main thing to remember with a Horse racing system is that every qualifier has an equal chance
of winning, regardless of what the bookmaker
price is, they do get it wrong, and systems
allow you to take advantage of it.
Methods Betting
A method bet is a selection that you pick
yourself either from your knowledge, race
watching, paddock watching, etc (in some
cases a feeling!!).
My main method betting is by race watching,
I never use 3rd party information, and with
the amount of racing on TV its easy to get
the hang of these days armed with a video.
You can go into plenty of detail with method
bets, F/c (forecast) price, handicap rating,
postmark, speed rating, form, etc, but you
can do too much, and its best to keep what
works as simple as you can.
If you're new to this type of betting, start
with something simple, such as favourites
in flat maiden & novice hurdle/chase,
and take it from there. This will ensure
a decent SR even if you don't profit at first.
Always write down every bet you do, even
if its just fun. In fact keep fun bets
in a separate list, and you'll soon see how
much this fun is costing you.
When selecting your own horses, take no notice
of tipsters or what they write in the press.
99% of them are not Pro-punters, and they
will swing your decision, usually towards a loser. I get the Racing
Post daily, but never read the race previews,
or tips of any kind.
Even with method betting you need a staking
plan, and betting bank. Without them you
will fail.
Betting Banks
A betting bank is a fixed amount of money
you put aside to use for a particular system,
or method, and is an amount you are prepared
to lose. So if you start with £100, and your
betting bank reaches £10,000, and you then lose it
all, you have only lost £100. It is hard
to accept this at first, but it is true.
It would also prove that whatever you were
doing was correct, and you need to do some
work to ensure the failure doesn't happen
again.
How big should your betting bank be? Whatever
you can afford. Also, think of it as a bank
account, there is nothing to stop you make
deposits into it, this can speed up profitability
in the long term.
Although the way the betting bank works will
depend on the staking plan, its basically
worth sticking to the simple rule that when
the bank trebles, the stake doubles. This
ensures that the more money you make, the
bigger the safety net.
If you use more than 1 system/method, ensure
you have separate betting banks, or you will
probably fail.
You need to remember that when a failure
does occur, in the majority of cases it is
not the system/method that has failed, it
is the betting bank size, or stake that causes
it, and those two things are set by yourself.
Many people consider a failure is not their
fault, and prefer to blame something else,
but no one else set the initial bank/stake.
I've known many people see a betting bank go into negative equity, and they give up
on it. As mentioned above, this does happen
in the first year, and does not mean a failure.
They are just impatient, and want instant
profit, which doesn't exist in this business.
If it was that easy Pros and bookmakers would
only need to be in business for a couple
of months then we could all clear off to
the Bahamas!
Staking Plans
This subject can be argued amongst most punters
till the Martians land, but apart from picking
winners, it is 50% of the problem for making
a profit.
There are many staking plans available, with
some mentioned on the free site, and the
best listed on the members update page.
Different staking plans, suit different systems/methods,
so if one doesn't work, try another. It is
possible to have ten systems, all with different
staking plans to make the best of them.
Mostly though it comes down to preference,
and Id recommend level staking for a beginner.
Once you're used to handling the betting
bank, listing all bets, etc, and have made
a few quid, you can then try using a staking
plan.
One thing punters never seem to realise is
that the BB (base bet) on a BB+SR plan may
be 50, and if they change to a stepping
plan, to use that BB is suicide, as it is
more likely to need a BB of 50p-1, even
this low can result in a bet of 200 during
a losing run, which means a bank of 500
would be in danger.
This is where mathematics comes into betting.
If you want to use anything other that level
stakes, you need to work out the above before
you've even bet. I have published the optimum
plans for the members systems on the forum
to save you the work, but it will help you
in the future to work it out yourself, as
wont be around forever.
Losing Runs
This is what kills of many peoples betting
banks, and forces them to give up, and is
usually due to the initial stake being set
too high.
You need to remember that the lower the SR,
the longer the likely losing runs.
A 50% SR can give you a losing run of 8,
although unlikely, it is still statistically
possible. 35% can give you a run of around
18, getting down to 20% and a losing run
of 30 isn't unknown. You must take this into
account when setting your bank and stake.
Its always best to be over cautious when
starting off; you can always adjust a few
months down the line.
Bookmaker / Betting Exchanges
Bookmakers have been around for decades,
and with the betting exchanges around now the punter
has more choice than ever. Which one you
use it up to yourself, but I use the betting exchanges around 98% of the time now, unless I can
haggle over a price while on course.
One thing that people forget is that there
is usually little difference between odds
on horses between the two, as you do pay
2%-5% commission on the exchanges, and you
need to take this into account. Any horses
over 5/1 should be place on the exchanges
with out question. This year alone the free
Draw Bias system threw up a 50/1 SP winner,
110/1+ on the exchanges, and a 40/1 Sp, at
around 80/1 on the exchanges, that's 100%
more.
If you haven't used the betting exchanges, then you
are throwing away potential profit (please
sign up via the site), as the above example
would give you the profit to handle an extra
losing run of 50, or at 10 stakes, you've
made 500 more than the man next to you who
used the bookmaker.
One other thing people ignore is the Tote,
which has its uses in certain situations,
especially short priced placed horses, as
sometimes they are ignored in the betting,
and go off a bigger price. There are a few
other quirks, but I'm not giving all the
secrets away.
Horse Racing Research
Research is probably the most essential part
of a Pro-punters armoury, as without it
we wouldn't have a clue about trends. We
all know simple ones, such as non-handicap
Favs win more races than handicap Favs, and
that is a researched trend. However the pro-punter
must find one that the majority don't know
in order to profit from it.
In the old days we used to use old copies
of the Sporting Life, or Raceform results
books, etc, but with computers these days
it is much easier to keep your own records
or use such tools as Raceform Online, or
RSB (Racing System Builder) - Links and further
information can be found on the site/forum.
These services, although costly, will allow
you to trawl through years of data, and come
up with past trends. In the case of RSB,
for a small daily charge, they will even
work out the system qualifiers for you.
Designing your own horse racing system is simple, although
some can be complex, just begin with a simple
rule such as back the shortest priced forecast
horse of the day. This one rule gives you
one bet a day, with a 50%+ SR, and has been
profitable over the last few years. However,
there is a drawback. Due to the low odds,
it is high turnover, for low profit (ROI%
around 1%-3%, 10%+ is good), but gives you
some idea, and you can add new rules as you
progress. Skipping handicap races will improve
the SR, and so on.
If I didn't do any research, I would never
make money, and it is a subject you must
constantly keep on top of.
Laying Horses
With betting exchanges now having a good foothold
in the betting market, its possible to back
horses, football teams, etc, to lose (LAY),
although bookmakers are starting to give
odds for laying as I type.
It may sound simple to back a horse to lose,
as its easier than picking a winner. But
there is a catch the majority don't realise.
Taking an example from a recent race that
won at an SP of 100/1, it was taken on the
betting exchanges at 1000/1. This means that someone
who wanted to make a simple 2 profit, actually
lost 2000!! So he has to find another 1000
losers to get that money back before he even
can look at a profit.
For an evens chance (1/1), you have just
as much chance of picking a loser, as you
do of it winning, although statistically,
you do actually have 55% in your favour,
as that's what the research shows, but it
is still high risk at those odds.
I use what I call Pro-Losers, which are systems
that work exactly the same way as winning
systems, except they select qualifiers that
produce a known ROI% loss. So if a given
Pro-Loser system gives a long term 30% ROI%,
that means you'll make 30p in the pound,
although this doesn't include over betting
(offering too high a price), and commission
deductions, but with experience you should
still manage an ROI% of 15%-20%.
If you're new to laying (again sign up via
the site), just start at 2 level stakes,
before moving on to any of the staking plans
given to members on the forum, while you
get your head around it all.
One good thing about the betting exchanges is you
can lay off any mistakes. Say you backed
horse B with 50, but it should have been
horse A! Then you lay horse B as well. You'll
lose the commission, and the spread between
the win-lose price, but its a small percentage
of the 50. Not many people consider that
option either.
You can also have an arb on the betting exchanges,
check the forum for further info, as its
too complicated for here.
Also keep your laying and winning banks separate,
and as with winning bets, NEVER chase your
losses, you will fail in the end. Stick to
the plans & systems, and any losses should
be recovered over time. Patience, not greed,
will see you become a successful Pro-Punter. Remember that last bit of advice it will save you a fortune, NEVER chase losses when laying.
Long term Profits
As mentioned above, the first year will only
see you betting banks in the embryonic stages.
After that they should really take off. Take
a look at the members system research on
the forum, to see the difference between
the first year, and the 10th. In some case
you may only start with a 1 stake, and make
100 that year, but if you're doing 10 systems,
that's a potential 1000, and is probably
1000 more than you've ever finished a year
in profit before.
You will also have to accept losses, sometimes
wiping out your betting bank. This doesn't mean the
system has failed, as the members systems
are proven over 10 years, but that your betting
bank was too low, or stake too high. Re-adjust
them, and start again.
Laying does tend to
throw up quicker profits due to the higher
number of daily qualifiers, but can suffer
days that make you want to cry, but do have
the potential to increase your betting bank
by up to 100% a month. It is not unknown for laying banks to drop 80%!
In order to cover all angles, its best to
run win and lay betting banks.
Horse Racing Festivals & Busy Racing Days
I've only recently researched this myself,
as the BHA have been fiddling about with
the racing calendar over the last few years, and so we have
more racing than ever. This can cause problems
on days were there is plenty of racing, where
you used a fixed stake adjusted daily.
I take a normal day as 1-4 meetings, and
from 2004 summer racing will include mostly
3 afternoon meetings, and 3 evening meetings.
This is basically 2 days racing in one, and
it is recommended you adjust the daily stake
when the afternoon meetings have finished.
If you are unable to do this you must decrease
your stake by a set percentage, of between
(25%-50%), on win and lay bets.
Bank holidays will not be as bad according
to the BHA as in the past, but the OFT (Office
of Fair Trading) may change that in the future.
A bank holiday may contain 10-16 meetings,
and so is technically 3-4 racing days in
one. In this situation I would reduce stakes
by (50%-75%) for the days racing, win and
lay. You may think you may miss out on potential
profit. This is greed, remember patience
and security makes a Pro-Punter. If you reduce
the stakes, it protects you if it all goes
pear-shaped on the day. I also reduce stakes
during sudden changes in going.
Festivals are similar to the above in that
the competition is always hot, and is not
a normal betting environment. So meetings
such as Royal Ascot, Cheltenham Festival,
Aintree Grand National meetings, are best
if you reduce the stakes by (25%-50%).
Conclusion
Hopefully the above pools together all the
basic information on the site and forum in
order to get you on you way to improving
your betting returns. If you have any questions
at all, please post them on the forum.
Additional Betting Tips
Its best to have more than one bookmaker/exchange
account so you can compare prices.
The Scoop 6 is worth considering once it
is over 50,000, as it is not always won
by the pro-syndicates.
If you have any doubt about a method bet,
don't bet, you'll have another chance soon.
If you do find you are losing, and have nearly
lost the bank, stop betting and re-adjust
everything. You should never lose the bank
if you have the maths right.
Generally speaking, your first year at being
a pro-punter will be hit and miss as you
find your feet, but you will then have goals
and enough experience to progress further
the following year. It took me 3 years to
get into top gear.
Feel free to publish your own tips, systems,
advice on the forum, this also helps you
to correct mistakes quicker so you don't
look like a complete fool, and will not only
help yourself in the long term, but others
as well.
Never over bet on the exchanges when laying.
By that I mean don't offer 7/1 for a 4/1
shot, 2/1 for an evens, etc, You should never
really bet over the odds of more than 50%,
but your best trying to keep it to 30% or
less. This doesn't have to be strict, as
long as the 10% on some and 60% on others
average out. To simplify things, its best
never to lay over 11pts.
Horse racing systems | Free horse racing systems | Betting bank | Staking plan
Betting service | Betting exchanges
|
