With the jumps season upon us now I thought I would take a look to see how the favourites have ran over the last 3 years. And no surprise that backing all of them would have resulted in you losing a pretty big wedge. But I’m not here to tell you about how to lose, I just want you to make a few quid. Learn how to make lots of ‘few quids’ and it mounts up into a big wad!
Having looked at a few things like type of race, age, sex, etc nothing stood out, all showed either break even, losses or for some a very small profit, but not worth the risk.
Eventually the magic Holy Grail wand landed on horses with a recent run, and the trend splits it straight in two which is a positive thing that it is not a quirk in the data. The same trend also holds up if I run it for the last 5 years but I’ll just show you the last 3 years of data here.
| DSLR Ranges | Ran | Won | SR | PL Exc |
PL SP |
| 0-7 | 12 | 3 | 25 | -1.32 | -1.5 |
| 8-14 | 16 | 6 | 37.5 | 2.55 | 2.25 |
| 15-21 | 47 | 20 | 42.55 | 31.27 | 26.38 |
| 22-28 | 60 | 23 | 38.33 | 16.18 | 12.89 |
| 29-42 | 70 | 10 | 14.29 | -38.31 | -39.23 |
| 43-56 | 31 | 9 | 29.03 | 1.93 | 0.46 |
| 57-90 | 27 | 6 | 22.22 | -2.88 | -5.44 |
| 91-150 | 16 | 3 | 18.75 | -4.99 | -5.5 |
| 150+ | 49 | 15 | 30.61 | -6.15 | -7.07 |
You can clearly see that backing a favourite at Cheltenham that last ran 28 days or less ago shows a decent profit. As usual betting on the exchanges shows a higher profit than using a normal bookmaker. The SR is good as well at over 38%.
Rules:
Back all Favourites at Cheltenham (including joints) as long as they last raced 28 days ago or less, whether that be under NH rules or on the flat.