Thoughts on the weeks races - Derby Week

[markwales]

Firstly, I wasn't sure whether to create a new thread, or follow the stable discussion, however I think this needs a thread of it's own as it talks about 'the races' rather than the stables thoughts of their own horses.

It's here at last, the eagerly awaited Derby week ! Not only do we have the Derby and Oaks at Epsom, but the first Group 1 sprint of the year in the Temple Stakes, as well as the French Derby over at Chantille……a cracking weeks racing awaits.

This has to be the biggest quantity of entries that we've seen on any race day so far. Including our biggest ever field of 19 runners going to post for the '2yo Derby and Oaks Hope Stakes', where the young 2yo's will take on the undulations of Epsom for the first time. This will give us a good form guide to next years classics, as the day builds up to this years Blue Ribbon event.

Many other races catch the eye. The Prix Du Jockey Club over at Chantille has attracted a very decent field of 8. Horses which either didn't qualify for the Epsom Derby, or have preferential weather conditions across the channel will line up for the 1st Group 1 prize of the day. It looks a very tight race to call, and not one for the feint hearted to be betting on. Also on the card is the Prix du Gros-Chene over 5f. This Group 2 event has attracted some classy animals, a few of which might have gone for the Temple Stakes later in the day, however once again weather conditions were key to the entries.
Of the other races at Chantille, the 1m and 1m 2f maidens for 2yo's look to be hotly contested affairs which will have plenty of winners come out of them.

A whole host of stables have taken up the first All Weather challenge at Wolverhampton. With trainers not really knowing the required going preferences we may just see some 'interesting' results. The Stayers classic looks to have a small but select 7 runner field, expect some chunky RR's here !!
In the 0-120 handicap Rose Of Oldham looks sure to go off a very short priced favourite, however weight could be the key here. The stable realise that Rose needs a run, and this may be the ideal opportunity.
In our sponsored race of the week, the "Workshy's Sandpit A/W Classic" over 1m 2f has attracted some of the top 1m 2f runners that we've seen out so far. I wouldn't like to be putting together a betting market on this race, as there are a few which are open to big improvement, and lightly exposed. It looks sure to be a tight race with so many chasing the £2000 purse.

Baden Baden awaits our first visit to Germany, and opens up with some nice 2yo Group sprints. Some very decent looking types look to be making the trip, and this weeks races should give us a good guide to which will step up to Group 1 class as the season progresses.
The big race of the day on German turf is the Stayers Group 3 race. 14 of the best distance colts and fillies line up for what looks a very tight race indeed. The more I look at the race, the more outcomes I envisage. The weather and ground conditions will be crucial to some stables hopes, and we may see several horses with their chances in ruins once the ground has been declared.
The mudlarks go onto the track for the Badener Meile Group 3 contest, and as seems to be the trend this week, a very hard race to call on racecard form alone.

We always thought that Epsom would provide some nice fields this week, but little did we expect to see 30 2yo's lining up over the first 2 races. These are the first longer distance races for the youngsters, and I'm sure we'll see some classic hopefuls come through with flying colours, whilst others retire to the yards to contemplate handicap company for the foreseeable future.
The Diomed Stakes has been cancelled due to lack of entries, the only disappointment on the Epsom card.
The first of the 3 big Group 1 races is the Temple Stakes. 9 quality animals going to post for what will certainly be a very fast run race. For the favourite, although no doubt a worthy one, it will be by no means a walk in the park, and there's every chance that this could provide us with a very close finish indeed. Over the minimum distance if a horse gets a bad start, it's very difficult to get back into the race, so all stables will be counting on their jocks to perform on the day.
The Oaks is the penultimate race of the day, and a race, which in my opinion is very weak for a Group 1 classic. I'm not saying that there won't be a very good winner to come out of the race, because that may just well be the case. What I am saying is that it is now wide open after the withdrawal of Ceylon Sapphire to take her crack at the boys in the Derby. The current form of the YLN stable means that all their entries have to be respected, whereas the very lightly raced Whisperski of the TOW yard has been a very interesting supplementary entry. PSS comes into the race double handed, and both hold good chances. The others, on form, look up against it, but the perils of Tattenham Corner await, and anything could happen.
Finally, the big race of the day….THE DERBY.
I'll go through all the horses chances in a Derby preview thread that I'll post tonight or tomorrow.
Contrary to what some may believe, this is a VERY good field. Of the 8 runners, I foresee at LEAST 7 getting over the 100 RR barrier, and maybe 4 or 5 reaching the dizzy heights of 110-120+

Full preview to follow.
In anyone would like to join me in giving their preview of the race and runners, please do so. The more opinions we have, the better the race will be received come race day !!!
Come on everyone, this is THE BIGGIE!!….let's get all our thoughts down in print for this one.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Some interesting Antepost action by one or two shrewd punters could see some healthy profits on the race with quite a bit of money being placed on the 'unquoted' option at 10/1. I was expecting a few people tying in the profit once Ceylon Sapphire had been officially supplemented, but the late entry seems to have attracted even further support. If she can pull this off, she will prove herself to be one of the best horses in the game!

Original favourite King Lebron (who ran a very impressive 112 in his Classics Trial) has been friendless despite the stables recent impressive form. This would be the one the bookies would love to win!

Eire Express and Dry County cannot be discounted on last season's 'Form' race which saw Dry County get the better of 3 others in the race won by Babe Magnet - with the TOW colt out of the way, Dry County could be the 'dark horse' of the race if he runs to his best.

Gov Lepetomane earned the tag of 'professional' loser last season but finally broke his maiden with a good performance in the Group 2 Derby Trial. Despite several seconds, he has finished runner up to some quality animals and beaten off some top class opposition in the process - don't write off his chances!

Mac the Knife ran the mighty Big George to within half a length early in his career and his recent 102 in the Group 2 race a fortnight ago puts him back on top form for the race.

Dans La Maison looked a little backward as a juvenile, but he qualified by winning the Lingfield trial - beating both Dry County and Mac the Knife in that event. May need to reproduce that form to win this!

The 'surprise' entry is the supplemented Swansea Jack. This young colt has had a baptism of fire. He was supplemented to the 2000 Guineas and although finishing last, ran a decent race for his first effort. He will have to improve a huge amount for the experience to trouble the judges, but stranger things have happened!

The bookies forecast:

1 King Lebron
2 Ceylon Sapphire
3 Dry County

[Onlyforfun]

As they say "Its only money", but the FF stable lumped on unquoted at 10/1 for the Derby! Just as well as her price is ludicrouslt short as no filly has ever won the Sim Derby.

Ceylon has her work cut out in this race but the stable agree with bookies and see King Lebron as the major danger to their star filly. However, she has made short work of the colts before at sprint distances and if the going has a hint of firm in it, her experience in 6 group races may well make all the difference.

She will have to be at her very best, but the owners feel that if there is a chance, it has to be taken.

[yerotsluap]

The YLN stable is left sweating on the ground for the Derby, anything on the firm or soft side of good would probably ruin the chances of King Lebron. The stable is very worried about the addition of Ceylon Sapphire to the race and feels that the very classy filly will be the one to beat come Derby day. All in all the Derby field looks reasonably strong and should see some top notch performances.

YLN Stable Forecast
1. King Lebron
2. Ceylon Sapphire
3. Mac The Knife

The other main event of the week, the Oaks, seems to have a fairly weak field or that could be just how it feels having seen the defection of Ceylon sapphire to the Derby. The two YLN fillys are in with a chance in this one provided the ground suits, Gold Or Platinum needs softer ground than Field Of Cloth Of Gold, but so long as the ground is not rock solid one of the YLN fillies will be in with a chance. This race would have had more excitement prior to it had Ceylon Sapphire remained in it but it may just have opened the race up and made it more competitive.

YLN stable forecast
1. Field Of Cloth Of Gold
2. Whisperski
3. Gold Or Platinum

[Workshy]

Derby week looks very juicy.

The first race of interest looks to be the Prix du Gros-Chene Gr. 2 in Chantille where the quick turnout, after a promising debut of Hot Lips might see a strongly contested race with the top class maiden Lusitania who looks to have a very good oppurtunity, a win being extremely appreciated by the stable I'm sure.

1st: Lusitania
2nd: Hot Lips

Still in Chantille, the Prix du Jockey-Club Gr.1 [French Derby] looks sure to produce a very impressive winner with the likes of Babe Magnet from the highly competative TOW stable and Cameron, an exciting colt who was an eye catching winner at the Curragh last week taking a almost unthinkable step up in class. I have no doubts that the PPP stable know what they're doing with this potentially classy animal. Beyond these 2, I can see the field struggling.

1st: Cameron
2nd: Babe Magnet

Over to Wolverhampton, the 1m 2f "Come to Workshy's sandpit" A/W Classic Grp 3 race looks to be a cracker. For betting purposes the race looks a mystery. For racing fans it it sure to be a high quality race with some very professional horses going to post. One to take a watching brief on, expect a strongly run race with a few horses having very good dirt pedigree. Race sponsors have sent 2 fillies to the race but it would be no suprise if they were both found out by a colt.

1st: Best Showmanship
2nd: Shock Horror

Over to Baden Baden in Germany, where there has been 67mm of rain over the last week with more forecast, the going currently soft is expected to become more yielding. We have 2 good quality 2yo group sprints and both will give a decent guide to some juvenile breeders cup contenders. The TOW stable look to hold a strong hand in both races and will be disappointed to leave Germany without some nice prize money.

Still in Germany, the Stayers Group 3 looks to be a very strong race with some top class stayers taken to make this a true test of stamina on the ground. The winner is sure to go on to better things.

Over the big meeting of the week, Epsom. Current weather forecasts suggest it will be perfect racing ground and there will be no excuses.

We have 2 exciting 2yo races both boasting large fields and sure to produce top class winners who are sure to have an eye on next years classics. An interesting runner looks to be Sticky Wicket in the 2yo Derby and Oaks Hope Stakes, whom after a promising debut might just make his experience tell over this field. A big danger looks to be Lady Muck of the in form YLN yard. This fillie, although still very juvenile is reportably burning the gallops at home and a big run is expected. I think a better persuader in the plate may have helped this filly overcome her greeness but nevertheless a promising debut is guaranteed.

On to the first Group 1 sprint of the season, the Temple Stakes. Sure to be a very fast contest, the winner will be the horse who's in the best nick on the day. This race see's the return to the racecourse of 2yo champ Nos Boss who has been layed out for this race. The colt is expected to replicate his championship form but will be facing stiff competition from the likes of Perfect Model from the SSS yard, Early Promise from the TOW yard and Reverend Johnson of the SOF yard. Potentially the best race of the meeting, the winner may well be one for the hall of fame.

1st: Nos Boss
2nd: Perfect Model
3rd: Early Promise

On to what looks a weak Oaks, one horse stands out for me, Bacon Role, a impressive winner lto, this PSS filly sets the bench mark and will be very hard to beat. An interesting supplemented entry, Whisperski of the TOW stable, showed good promise in her one visit to the racecourse last season in a race which has produced some good winners.

1st: Bacon Role
2nd: Whisperski

Finally, the The Derby Stakes Gr.1. Much debate over how this race will pan out suggests nobody really knows who will win. Market leader and the sole filly in the race, Ceylon Sapphire sets a high standard but I feel is very beatable. With biased in mind, we hope that King Lebron takes on Ceylon Sapphire early in the race and they burn each other out, leaving the race for Dans La Maison to win :D

1st: Dans La Maison
2nd: Ceylon Sapphire
3rd: King Lebron

Yes, I'm completely biased.

[markwales]

Quality previews chaps.....

[John]

No sooner than Sunday August 15th brings the arrival of over one hundred and fifty horses that battle it out between the rails, in what could be described as the most prestigious week at Win2Win Downs so far. A current report has arrived from France, and makes very interesting reading. The report from Epsom is expected to arrive late tomorrow afternoon.

CHANTILLE

Mile Maiden
After a two-hour ferry ride to Chantille, a large bunch of hot-looking 2yo’s will take the plunge. Early predictions reveal that Night Crawler will be looking to capitalise on his fine debut race, and will take all the beating here. The other exciting-looking colt is Ace In The Hole from Mathare's stable, who also has all the ticks in the right boxes and looks keen to go well again. Another one to look out for is debutant Four Candles from the TOW yard, who has trained on nicely since he was introduced into the stable and looks like a decent sort. However, inexperience and a lower speed rating could prove costly. Last of the picks that connections feel is in with a chance comes Troy from NRU, a calm, cool and collected colt over from Ireland who again on paper looks the business. The winner of this race will surely go on to a very prosperous future.

Predicted 1-2-3
1. Night Crawler
2. Ace In The Hole
3. Troy
----------------------------
1m2f Maiden
The 1m2f Maiden sees nine horses go to post. If the ground stays on the drier side, this could be a race for the PPP stable to snatch all the glory. Hooverround looks the better of the two from this yard on paper, although the inexperienced jockey will need to be on top form to guide this filly to victory. The yard also sends stable mate I’ll Do It Later to the track, who also makes lots of appeal. South African-born colt, Dead Zone, would really have appreciated the sun blazing through the sky with rock solid ground, but should still be comfortable with a few clouds in view. His only downfall on paper is behaviour, his boisterousness could be the key to a letdown. Having said that, if he remains calm on the day, he could be in with every chance.


Predicted 1-2-3
1. Hooverround
2. I’ll Do It Later
3. Dead Zone
----------------------------
Group 2 ‘Prix du Gros-Chene’
This highly competitive affair looks far too tough for even the most elite tipster to call. Can Lusitania finally get it right and win her first race? She certainly has the ability and would put most of these away with no problem whatsoever performing at true class. She will be paraded in all her glamour and hopefully her galloping will match her silken image. Temperament could cause her yet another upset, but that should be her only real worry provided the weather stays fine. The Fun’s Fully yard send Pewter Jug over the sea and he has every right to be included. Achieving several Group 3 wins, he then went on to win her first Group 2 race three weeks ago beating a quality range of horses including Blackjack Magic (reversed form from previously) who also is involved here. ‘The Jug’ will stand every chance of winning this, and I would estimate a top three finish is more than likely barring a big upset. RAW not only have Group 1 winner Blackjack Magic, but Pegasus is the horse that also stands out having finished 2nd to Big George in the Open Mile last season. Again, ground will be the issue for the two from RAW; the more rain the better, as these horses gallop much more fluently when the going has a bit of squelchiness to it. Chiselled and polished from Plater’s yard again, sees Hot Lips take the plunge. With only the one race to her name it is hard to gauge her true ability, her debut was unlucky as she faultered coming out of the stalls but managed to achieve a very respectable race rating of 95. Hopefully the vital first experience points will be enough to see her make a strong challenge here today. Finally, the newly exposed Tommy Gun will be all out here today, although due to inexperience, greenness could prove costly. On the other hand the horse has shown what he is made of so far, and could be in with a sniff should he act accordingly. The ground could be the killer, though the estimated tricast is as follows…

Predicted 1-2-3
1. Pewter Jug
2. Blackjack Magic
3. Lusitania
----------------------------
Group 1 ‘Prix du Jockey-Club’
Babe Magnet and Cameron are the two that stand out some distance from the rest of the field based on paper stats and previous form. Both yards will be expecting to win, and upsets could easily be caused should either of them get it wrong on the day. Rumours are spreading that Back Of The Field does have what it takes to win a Group 2 race, after reports have been flying left, right, and centre, that the JJJ yard have been testing steroids on their horses to make them more determined to win. The JJJ trainer has been questioned by the BHB who in swift response to their accusations replied, “I’m not breaking rules of any sort, I am merely testing drugs. The line has to be drawn somewhere, you people are too quick to jump to conclusions these days.” The HBI (Horse Bureau Investigation) will be fully alert on race day, and will work in partnership with the BHB to look for any suspicious goings on.

Predicted 1-2-3
1. Cameron
2. Babe Magnet
3. Roulette King
----------------------------

Epsom review to follow tomorrow…

[Onlyforfun]

FFF Group Race Preview

First up for FFF is the Prix du Gros-Chene G2 at Chantille. Pewter Jug travels to France for this exciting race. As with many of the stables runners this week the going is the key. Hampered in most of his races by soft ground, he has still managed plenty of places up to G1 and a G3 victory. Should we get good or firmer ground on Sunday, the others in the field will struggle to keep up with this speedy colt as of the other colts only Waco Kid and the filly Lusitania will be seen to their best advantage. Between these three, this is a very open race, if the ground dries out, "the Jug" stands his best chance yet of a G2 win, but if it stays Good, he should still place.

Prediction:

1- Lusitania
2- Pewter Jug
3- Waco Kid

Also at Chantille we have an interest in the Prix de Royaumont G3 with Emerald Girl. With only two runners declared, this nice filly, who qualified for the Oaks, is guaranteed some prize money, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her make short work of Rockett Powered who doesn't look like a 1m4f horse, at least to this observer, and wants a lot further.

Prediction:

1- Emerald Girl
2- Rockett Powered

Our booze cruising lads in France are the envy of our next entries grooms who get to go to glamerous Wolverhampton, where Iron Age makes an appearance in the "Come to Workshys Sandpit" AW Clasisc G3. Iron Age was bred for the 10f trip and as he runs on anything we have decided to see if the AW can bring out something special in him. Still a Maiden and relatively inexperienced, with his tremendous attitude the stable feels he has an excellent EW chance in this open race. If not, its off to Claimers or maybe the stud farm as his physical and mental attributes should command a valuable fee.

Prediction:

1- Coupling
2- Bronzewing
3- Iron Age

The stable is bypassing Germany in protest at the high travel costs and we feel that our mudlarks will be better suited by the higher quality of the Ascot meeting.

So, last but by no means least is the "Challenge the Sapphire Derby" at Epsom. Thats right folks, you heard it here first, FFF has put up an additional £500 sponsorship for the great race, to bring the total prize fund to a whopping £10000.

Connections of Ceylon Sapphire decided that despite the Oaks providing slightly (we think) easier pickings, the lack of strength in depth in the 1m4f division merited a crack at the big one. Ceylon has yet to race at the full mile and a half, but if her work is anything to go by, she will love the extra furlong from her last walkover in France and if there is a hint of firm in the going the boys are really going to struggle to hold off her late acceleration.

The main worries are that the ground will be on the soft side of good or that despite our best efforts, we haven't been able to book a top class jockey due to the late declaration. We are worried by her normal riders tendency to get boxed in. (Any similarity to Soviet Song and J Murtaugh are purely coincidental :rolleyes: ).

Of the rest of the field our main challenger seems to be the late developer King Lebron. "The King" ran a storming 112 on heavy ground lto, but we feel he will be hard pushed to repeat that on firmer ground. His stable are in flying form though and he is sure to make the places at the very least.

Dry County is an interesting prospect from the SSS stable, running a fairly decent 88 in his trial on unsuitable ground. But as with King Lebron lack of experience is a big worry in a race of this magnitude.

Gov Lepetomane has been campaigned over a variety of distances with only one run over the trip, posting a 98 on what was probably not far off his ideal going. Is going to have to run above himself to get in the frame.

Eire Express also ran a close up 2nd in his trial but with a lack of solid Group form has it all to prove.

Mac the Knife has qualified for this race twice coming 3rd in the Lingfield Trial then 1st at Brighton. His obvious relish for that helter skelter course puts him in the frame at Epsom but again has to improve to make an impression.

Who knows what Swansea Jack is doing in this company. It is thought his owners are on holiday in the UK from Brazil after the arrest warrant for "Mad Merlin" was suspended after a campaign by The Sun and fancied a day at the races, and after robbing that train, well, he can afford it!

The winner of the Lingfield trial, Dans La Maison, comes into this race with stats against him. No winner of the Sim Derby has ever come out of this race. Another inexperienced colt, anything other than his favoued good ground should see his chances evaporate.

Conclusion:

Everything depends on the going. If there is any firm at all in the going, it will play straight into Ceylon Sapphires hands with none of the boys being able to handle it. If it comes up good, the race is wide open between Ceylon, King Lebron, Dry County, Mac The Knife and Dans La Maison. Ceylon would still be exp[ected to go close under these conditions as she trounced some very useful colts in the July Cup last year including Nos Boss And Rev Johnson on this surface.

If the going is any softer the complexion of the race changes entirely with Dry County, Gov Lepetomane, Eire Express and Mac the Knife having the main chance.

Prediction:
1- Ceylon Sapphire
2- King Lebron
3- Dans La Maison

Whatever happens, the FFF staff will not be disappointed after what we're sure will be a great occassion. If all else fails, there is still the Irish Oaks!

Good luck all!

[Nick777]

Excellent stuff boys and girls....most enjoyable.

For the RAW stable there is no interest in the Oaks or the Derby since there are no runners in there for us partly due to the conditions.

In the Derby, Ceylon Sapphire looks nailed on and I've had a large wedge on her in the Simfair market. She maybe a filly against the boys, but I suspect that the 1m4f will be more suited to her than the sprinting. Conditions are "Sunny spells" and Ceylon goes well on the firm and the good. Rain would bea bad thing. As for the others, if the ground turns firm, or even stays good, then they can kiss their chances goodbye.

King Lebron ran the fantastic rating of 112 in the listed classic trial (first week of the season) but that was on the heavy ground. The firmer the ground gets, the less chance he has. I think this horse is a good lay since the ground will firm up and the going will end up "Good to firm".

Gov Lepetomane will come in second about 3 lengths behind Sapphire.

For the Oaks, all rests on the going, but I think that Gold or platinum will be the one to beat if the going gets a little on the soft side. She has plenty of experience and has the right distance in the Oaks.

Finally, watch NOS BOSS get turned over in the Group 1 Temple stakes for the shock of the year....... :D

You heard it here first......