Staking for Lays pro and false

[Street cry]

This is directed at Keith or TH but any help much appreciated.
I started doing the false lays exactly two months ago and have recently added pro losers . I started laying with a fixed liability of 5 per cent and made a 3 percent profit on investment at about an 85 per cent strike rate which i thought was good . I adjusted to fixed stake after a month as i was advised by Keith that the falsies work better that way . I have not had the same profitability from the same strike rate this way, i understand that with fixed stake you have the market working for you but as i found better profitability with fixed liability i am thinking of reverting to it . Obviously i understand i don't have a great sample of lays yet to analyze and i realise that fixed stake is probably more conducive to protecting the bank . I would just like to clarify that firstly my strike rate of 85 per cent is about right and i would like to assertain the long term figure for ROI maybe 3 percent is too high . If using fixed liability is wrong for falsies or pro losers please let me know . I know this is long winded and probably been covered elsewhere but i would just like to know more than anything that i am doing things right thanks .

[Street cry]

Forgot to say please move this if it is in the wrong place

[presto]

in my experience:

fixed stake = lower risk, lower potential profit
fixed liability = higher risk, higher potential profit

you also have to consider the odd's as these affect both systems differently.

high odd's
fixed stake = higher (maximum) liabilities on these, a day of winning high odd's can be bad news for the fixed liabilities as these hit the system hard,

fixed liabilities - high odd's on these have the same liabilities as the lower odd's selections. so a day of high winning odd's wont do as much damage to the bank as it would do to FS,

low odd's
fixed stake - low odd's winning selections will hardley make a dent in the FS bank, as they hold little liability.

set liability - low odd's give the greatedt profit (when they dont win) on the FL bank, but when they do win, hit at full liability.

....................................

you have also got to consider that the past 2 months the falsies have been doing well. that is why the set liabilities would appear to be doing better, as you are being a bit more risky on a good set of result's. if the result's arnt as good as they have been - then the lower risk approach would seem better.

i do beleive that you should bet the way that you are more comfortable with, but not chop and change.

[Street cry]

Thanks PRESTO i kinda knew what you said but it was nice to hear i am on the right lines . I think from looking at my results that the reason i preferred fixed liability was due to the fact the winners i have had have mostly been quite high 9/1 etc so as you said the fixed liability performed better . As i carry on one would expect that this will change and i am probably safer using fixed stake and going "with the market" could i ask what your ROI is long term for false lays and pro losers if you do either of them if not no worries and many thanks for your help.

[mathare]

It's worth thinking about your overlay as well when considering whether to go fixed stakes or fixed liability.

With fixed stakes any overlay on the losing horses (wiining lays) doesn't affect your profit. You need to minimise your overlay on those horses that win. With fixed stakes the reverse is true and you need to minimise your overlay on losing horses to maximise profits.

So with the false lays do you want to worry about the overlay on 15% (fixed stake) of horses or 85% of horses as it is with fixed liability? Some overlay is inherent in the fact we are laying on the exchanges but if the way you are laying these horses (time of day, race by race or all at once etc.) means a large overlay it may be worth going to fixed stakes so only 15% of horses overlaid matter rather than 85%.

[presto]

i havn't got any recent ROI figures for the falsies. but i will post some older ones - note the system is constantly changing - so these may not be too accurate. - these are the falsies with fixed liability.

dec (04)
SR 85%
ROI 4.43%

jan (05)
SR 76.7%
ROI - 8.5%

feb
SR 81.7%
ROI 6.14%

mar
SR 83.8%
ROI -0.44%

apr
SR 85.7%
ROI 0.54%

may
SR 85.8%
ROI 2.27%

june
SR 85.3
ROI 0.51%

july
SR 81.66
ROI 0.20

august
SR 87.16
ROI 3.46

sep
SR 83.74
ROI 0.2

......................................

my spreadsheet's in a bit of a mess at the moment but for the falsies i would hazard a guess that the SR is around 83% and a ROI of around 2% in the period dec - sep.

since then however the falsies have been performing better, though i havnt got the stats to hand.

the pro-lays have a SR of around 86-88% depending on your cut off. but i would say the ROI is slightly lower than that of the falsies - due to the higher odd's. though they do have a higher turnover.

[Street cry]

Thanks MATHARE that was something i had thought about but the importance hadn't really registered until now . Yeah you are right in the respect that my overlay is probably quite large and therefore all in all i am best off sticking to fixed stakes

[Street cry]

Thanks PRESTO i reckoned on similar figures to that so looks like i am ok . Thanks to both you and MATHARE for your time and help . I am gonna continue with fixed stakes for 0.5 percent of my bank and see how it goes . I predict that i will increase the bank 300 percent in 12 years with about 2 percent ROI . Thanks again

[presto]

i think that you will do much better than that,

with the falsies - starting with 4% liability. i managed a 100% increase after 12 months. though much of this has come since september onwards.

[Street cry]

LOL should have read 12 months this includes pro losers and obviously a massive turn over

[presto]

months sounds a lot better :)

one thing i would highly reccomend doing now though, would be looking at %reduction trigger point's.

basically when bank doubles reduce from 0.5% stake to 0.4% stake etc...... it may reduce potential profit in the long run, but will increase bank safety etc....

another thing i should also point out would be - don't expect targets to be met all the time. sometimes targets can distract us from what is really happening. the lays for example (for me anyway) have been on a longish losing streak (6 months), though over the entire year i am up a nice ammount.

[Win2Win]

The False lays made a rocketing 50pts in Novermber, and so far in December are pretty stagnant, with around 5pts profit, so it is not your staking, and stagnation in gambling is normal, and much better than losing :)

[Street cry]

Thanks guys you've been a great help