Odds on favs.

[wb]

Dont worry, Im not going to do this or anything, Im just curious:)

I was just wondering what would happen if you picked out all the odds on favs for the day and backed them. I know that it would probrally not be profitable, as if it was that easy, everyone would be doing it, but I wonder what long term S/R would be.
any Ideas?

[mathare]

It has been proven in the past that there is a fav-longshot bias that means backing odds on favs is better overall than backing outsiders, at least in terms of profit/loss. Neither made any money but the loss was much less on the odds on favs.

[WEANIEWORM]

i woudnt they have a habit of coming second a hell of a lot

[Johnny2Tone]

This may be useful.

Flats 1991 to 2005

Odds less or equal to 1/2
1722 bets win 74% place 88%
return 97% win 98% eachway

odds greater than 1/2 less than or equal to 10/11
6365 bets win 54% place 78%
return 93% win 94% eachway

Jumps 1991 to 2005

Odds less or equal to 1/2
2254 bets win 76% place 86%
return 100% win 99% eachway

odds greater than 1/2 less than or equal to 10/11
7127 bets win 55% place 75%
return 94% win 94% eachway

A return of over 100% = profit, so from the above you will not win any money by backing odds-on (singles) but you will lose it more slowly.

Doubles - maybe?

Cheers
John

[tophatter]

As with any bets of any price you just have to be a little selective and you can win. If it was as easy as saying you just back a horse in a certain price bracket and you would win there would be no gambling as there would be no one to lay the bet. The winning punter needs the losing punters in order to win. In general the lower the price, the lower the ROI but the greater the potential for staking plans and long term longevity as losing runs will be lower and so you have a greater time scale for things to level out. Personally, I prefer low price betting as Im more a steady gambler who prefers a slow steady growth