Horse Race Betting - Advice Wanted

[clotty]

I'm interested in getting into horse betting and so I thought it would be worth me posting here.

I know nothing about the sport, but the odds look very nice, plus the number of events is very useful and I think could potentialy boost my profits very nicely.

I'm basically hoping you'd be able to give me a little bit of advice on what to look for in the stats when analysing. What factors should I take into account and how seriously should I take each factor? Should I start in a particular type of event or would it be best to just explore them all at once?

I'd also be grateful if you could point me to some recommended links.

Thanks in advance if you are able to help.

Clotty.

[silax]

ok 99% of all people who gamble lose money
if you're wanting to know how to make money from it the first thing to learn is how to gamble not how to pick winners.
a good idea is to start to papertrade (no money)
its not easy and takes a lot of learning

[clotty]

I'm very aware of the amount of punters whole gamble and lose and I would certainly begin any type of betting in a new field I'm not used to with a paper trial.

I consistantly make good money by betting on football, but want to explore horse racing as there are many more events to take advantage of and it would add another dimension to my betting power if I was able to bet profitably in another sport other than football.

[Win2Win]

You publish your profitable info here and you can have Vegy's WIN tips for free :yikes: (very profitable for laying :laugh)

[presto]

try starting with the free bet's on the main page. - just to start getting used to the horses, and remember to keep good records. then maybe move on to be a full member - plenty more systems there and lays too.

af for your own stats / analysis - why not get a free 'trial' copy of RSB - racing system builder. that is the most advanced system analyst out there.

[mathare]

If you want an in I would suggest you pick a subset of all the races and focus on those. It could be you pick the races where Keith provides a free bet, it could be you go with the 2yo races when the flat starts in a few weeks, or you pick milers, sprints or something. How you do it is kinds arbitrary and not all that relevant (although picking the 2yo races would make it much harder than it needs to be).

Look through the cards and try and pick a winner. It doesn't matter how you pick it at this stage. When the race has been run go back through the full result on Sporting Life or Racing Post (preferably) and see where your pick finished. If it didn't win have a look at the horse that did win and look at reasons why it might have beaten all the others. Does the history for the horse show it is better on the going/course/distance/class etc.?

Horse racing is just about using history as a guide to how the future might (should) pan out. You ought to be looking at each horse in your chosen type of race, looking at it's past performances in races similar to today. By that I mean I would focus on going, course, distance and class.

Start by ruling out the no-hopers (they are pretty easy to spot) and then pay more attention to the rest of the field. Have they faced the others in this race before? How did they get on?

As you get more experienced I would start to think about the effects of weight on each horse and perhaps running style (front runner, back marker etc.) but that is more advanced than where it sounds like you are for now.

Hope some of that helps and good luck.

A good papertrade method is to start a £1000 mythical challenge in the appropriate thread and keep accurate figures on your strike rate and current bank.

[Merlin]

Just spend a couple of afternoons in a betting shop......then you will know first hand what not to do :laugh:

[Merlin]

If your really green - I would spend some time looking at say 2 non-handicap races per day.....concentrating on the first 3 in the betting (as these are the ones that win the most races)....and paper trade a bet in this kind of race.....see how you get on.....

[Fadetoblack]

Just spend a couple of afternoons in a betting shop......then you will know first hand what not to do :laugh:

Honest to Jesus...I was forced to do that on saturday evening to watch the newbury bumper - I lost my cool in a matter of minutes.

Firstly, I'm unable to remain quiet when people are waxing nonsensical. One man said he'd never back a horse at odds on first time out. Pepperoni Pete had run before I said. What? he replied.

I listened to them abuse JP Magnier all the way through the race, all the way up to the line when he guided his horse to victory. I'm not Magnier's biggest fan but a lot of the time, even if he doesn't look the most stylish, he gets the job done and his strike rate cannot be argued with. I tried though...it was like pissing into a northerly wind.

[presto]

it's worse when you hear them complain about the jockey's ride



................................ on the :censored: cartoon racing :doh

[Onlyforfun]

it's worse when you hear them complain about the jockey's ride



................................ on the :censored: cartoon racing :doh

:laugh :laugh :laugh

[clotty]

Thanks for the advice, it's been very useful, although I still have a few questions.

What websites would you recommend I use for stat analysis when it comes to Horse Racing? Can anyone recommend what type of horse events are easiest to predict and therefore probably best for me to begin with?

[MarcusMel]

Start with non-handicap class D or higher 12 or less runners on turf and where most of the horses have some form to go on.

Goto the Racing Post sign up and there is a gold mine of statistics to work with. Be patient. Some pros only do 1 or 2 bets a month others as many as they can. Betting style is a life choice. We are all in competition with one another yet strangely believe we are taking the bookies money:doh.

[clotty]

Instead of starting a new thread I'll bring this post back from the ashes with a whole new set of questions.

Sorry I ask a lot of questions (and be warned there are a lot and half way through you might start to look like -> :yikes:), but its the only way you learn and gain information and information will help beat the bookie (or the punter on exchanges) :D

Okay, so first question, how does the horse class structure work. Do certain classes show stronger trends are more reliability than others?

How does a horses age come matter? What ages are most reliable? Do horses start to decline in ability once they hit a certain age, in the same way a footballer would, or are they always retired before they get to that point?

On racing post it has information on the jockey and trainer. What should I look for in a jockey or trainer, or are they quite irrelevent to a horses performance?

Also, I've seen numerous times punters saying that a horse has raced a few days before their current race and they use it as a positive. Wouldn't a horse be tired if it had raced only a day or two before it's current race?

National Hunt, Hurdles, Flat Racing ... what do I need to know about them and how should they affect what I look for in selections?

LAYING. Is there any criteria that lets you know a horse is almost certainly not going to win? Is it often that horses step up a class and win their first race?

And of most interest to me is how punters debate over the ground. How does that affect the race? Do the horses not all have the same ground to run on meaning it doesn't matter whether ground is hard or soft?

Have I asked enough questions? :doh

Once again, apologies for my questions, but I know very little about horse racing.

Thanks very much for any feedback, no matter how small.

Clotty. :spinning

[mathare]

I'm going to be quite brief because it's late and I am tired but here are some quick answers...


Okay, so first question, how does the horse class structure work. Do certain classes show stronger trends are more reliability than others?The higher the class number the better the horses and the more reliable the form, generally speaking. A Premiership team's form tend to hold up better than some non-league side, the same is true of horses. The better, more valuable races are contested by the better horses too. It's horses in the top few grades and donkeys in grades 6 and 7 really.


How does a horses age come matter? What ages are most reliable? Do horses start to decline in ability once they hit a certain age, in the same way a footballer would, or are they always retired before they get to that point?Depends on the racing code somewhat. Horses tend to start on the flat at 2yo and the best will often be retired to stud as 3yo. Some will run on as 4yo's and 5yo's. Some will be turned into National Hunt horses around this sort of time by being schooled over hurdles and/or fences. NH horses tend to be older because it takes a mature horse to jump obstacles and in such races stamina is more important than speed. Think of the wily old pro facing a nippy young kid. The pro may not run as fast but he knows how to pace himself to last the 90 minutes. Oh yeah, and male horses going on to be NH horses tend to be gelded (they have their knackers chopped off). Apparently it hurts when you catch your :icon_tong on the top of a fence! :yikes:


On racing post it has information on the jockey and trainer. What should I look for in a jockey or trainer, or are they quite irrelevent to a horses performance?At this stage of your gambling career they are irrelevant. In the future you will learn that some trainers produce certain types of horse and some jockeys have riding styles that suit only certain courses but for now none of this matters. Start simple and build up from there.


Also, I've seen numerous times punters saying that a horse has raced a few days before their current race and they use it as a positive. Wouldn't a horse be tired if it had raced only a day or two before it's current race?I used to think this but it's not true. A horse racing within the last 3 weeks or so can be assumed to be at the peak of it's fitness. If kept off the track for a while some horses lose the sharpness that comes with racing. Think footballers and match fitness. They can do all the gym work they like but it is competitive matches that brings then to peak fitness.


National Hunt, Hurdles, Flat Racing ... what do I need to know about them and how should they affect what I look for in selections?Flat racing is about speed and NH is about stamina - generally. Hurdles are smaller than fences and most horses are only any good over one of hurdles and fences. Check past results to see which it is for a particular horse. For flat nags look for horses who have run the distance before and horses who have failed to stay longer distances or been running on at the end of shorter races.


LAYING. Is there any criteria that lets you know a horse is almost certainly not going to win? Is it often that horses step up a class and win their first race?The only surefire thing is number of legs. Three-legged horses don't win. Horses are not machines and make mistakes, as do jockeys. They also pull off some awesome performances that they shouldn't have been capable off. Laying horses is a tricky business. Everyone thinks it is easy to pick a loser, and it is. But picking ones at odds that make it profitable is very difficult. This is not something suited to beginners.


And of most interest to me is how punters debate over the ground. How does that affect the race? Do the horses not all have the same ground to run on meaning it doesn't matter whether ground is hard or soft?The more extreme the going (hard, heavy) the less suited it is to most horses and the more a horse who relishes that going can take advantage. Imagine Didier Drogba playing on concrete. He won't play his normal game because diving face first will hurt when he hits the deck, but put him on a muddy pitch and he can splash around on the floor to his heart's content. So it is with horses. Some suit fast ground they can skip off the top of, some like ti sloppy underfoot. The going is rarely exactly the same across the width of the course, or it's length. It will be sloppier in some places and drier in others (think puddles in the street). So racing line plays a part as to which horses get the perceived best ground. On heavier going some horses are far less sure of their footing so run slower. The weight on their back also has a greater effect on softer ground. Try running wearing a backpack on a nice firm running track. Then try the same through the long jump pit. Which is easier for you?

[clotty]

:yikes: Wow! Thanks an awful lot for that quick reply! I'm going to scramble my brains over that info and will start a paper trade to see where it gets me.

I don't suppose there is anything else I need to know about is there?

Thanks, again.

[mathare]

I don't suppose there is anything else I need to know about is there?You now know more than most mug punters. What you need to do know is understand what you do and don't know and that comes with experience. Watch some racing, paper trade some bets and generally settle into the life that comes with it. And enjoy it - it's supposed to be fun! :D

[Win2Win]

......it's supposed to be fun! :D
No one told me that when I drop £10,000 in a day :(

[mathare]

No one told me that when I drop £10,000 in a day :(You could have just picked it up again? :doh

Or was Vegy lurking behind you? :icon_tong