system test selections.

[system1]

I wanted to post some selections from my system. here goes my rep on the line
Catterick
2:00 - Selling Hurdle - beau torero
2:30 - Handicap Chase - derainey
3:00 - Novices Hurdle - the duke s speech
4:00 - Maiden Chase - brave rebelion
Southwell
3:40 - Banded Stakes - noul
4:40 - Banded Stakes - the job

[Win2Win]

You haven't said if they are win or lays, so wait until the results before telling us. :wink

[system1]

on the nose mate.

[system1]

2 out of 6. a loss at level stakes. not good tipping but perfect for my system, 1st horse in.

[system1]

todays selections, lets hope for better wheather.
backed to win
Carlisle
2:10 - Novice Hurdle - some touch
3:50 - Handicap Chase - dickie lewis
Towcester
3:40 - Novice Chase - lord olympia
4:50 - Hunt Chase - paddy for paddy
Wincanton
2:20 - Handicap Chase - chabrimal minister
4:40 - Handicap Chase - christopher

heres a fun e/w lucky 31
2:00 - Handicap Hurdle - jackie boy (towc)
2:55 - Handicap Hurdle - kawagino (winc)
3:05 - Handicap Hurdle - andy gin (towc)
3:30 - Hunter Chase - guldage (winc)
4:25 - Handicap Hurdle - primative poppy (carl)
5:10 - National Hunt Flat - handle with care (winc)

[system1]

2 out of six again, again a level stakes loss, but perfect for my system.
made a profit on my lucky 31, with 2 8/1 winners. posted 6 horses instead of 5 handle with care was put there by mistake.

[wb]

2 out of six again, again a level stakes loss, but perfect for my system.

No offence, but how are 2 losing days good for your system? Would 200 losing days be 100 times as good?
Sorry, I'm not being rude, but I just don't understand how losing days are perfect for the system.

[system1]

the system stops at a winner. i never back more than 5 a day, and the stakes are arranged to profit if any of the 5 come in. its very early days (5 weeks), and still at a paper stage but it works well. combined with a good selection system and a way of dealing with the losing days. so when a winner comes in the first race its perfect.

[Win2Win]

:ermmm :dunker :splapme Stop at a winner, and then watch the selections you don't back after that win at 33/1 & 50/1.....lovely plan :)

[system1]

thats a bit smug mate. lets have your selections, i,ll take you on today. you against my stupid system.

[Win2Win]

Their is no logical sense in a stop-at-a-winner system, what I state is true, and as a professional gambler for years, I wouldn't even consider using such a plan. My results on the site speak for themselves.

I'm just trying to make you aware, that you are losing profit with this plan, when I would have thought your intentions were to make more profit.

[system1]

i pick selections from the days racing, a star rating system means i can select the top 5. getting a winner in this block of 5 is my aim, i make more than 5 selections, but the hope is that the top rated horses perform better than the lower rated, which is the case at the moment. fair enough, my results show i would make more by going to 2 blocks of 5 a day when avaiable.

[mathare]

thats a bit smug mate. lets have your selections, i,ll take you on today. you against my stupid system.I think Keith publishes enough systems for you to measure your performance against :rolleyes:

[system1]

todays selections
to win
3:00 - Beginner's Chase - ever present
2:20 - Handicap Chase - bay island
2:50 - Hunters' Chase - coole glen
4:00 - Hunt Chase - the lyme volunteer
3:15 - Amtr Chase - back nine
5:00 - Novice Hurdle - aztec warrior

lucky 31 e/w
4:10 - Handicap Chase - strong resolve
3:25 - Novice Chase - sunley future
2:40 - Handicap Chase - royal acadou
3:50 - Handicap Hurdle - alpha gamble
4:25 - Hunt Chase - haut cercy

[MarcusMel]

Keith is right there is no logical or Mathematical sense in stop at a winner. It is a psycological thing. You personally feel better if you end the days betting by stopping at a winner. As a subset of your selections though it will long term make no difference.

[system1]

2 out of 6 again yesterday. a small level stakes profit.
These will do better.
Ayr
4:00 - Handicap Chase - green ideal
Chepstow
4:50 - Handicap Chase - nycteos
5:25 - Handicap Hurdle - canavan

Sandown Park
3:20 - Handicap Hurdle - tarlac
3:55 - National Ht Ft Rce - wydello

Wolverhampton
2:25 - Handicap - bayeux de moi
4:45 - Stakes - border music

[MarcusMel]

Moved to System Qualifiers

[system1]

4 out of 7. a level stakes profit.

[system1]

4:00 - Handicap Chase - green ideal win 9/2
4:50 - Handicap Chase - nycteos win 5/6
2:25 - Handicap - bayeux de moi win 7/4
4:45 - Stakes - border music win 8/11
5:25 - Handicap Hurdle - canavan
3:20 - Handicap Hurdle - tarlac
3:55 - National Ht Ft Rce - wydello

[wb]

Some nice wins there! I honestly think you are wasting money if you are stopping at a winner though. you have had some good pics which would have been wasted on the stop at a winner thing I reckon.

Well done anyway

[system1]

i accept what you say but at the moment, i have to be realistic about my ability. blocks of 5 and stopping at a winner works for me. theres more to it than winning. i want to develop disipline as well, i dont go past 5, i stop win or lose, it helps me accept that there will be days i win and days i lose. accepting that is part of the disipline required. its a personal thing, its early days with a paper system i belive in.

[wb]

Fair enough. As long as you are profiting, that is the main thing. Just don't forget to paper trade the results using different staking and see if any profitable trends emerge.

[system1]

todays selections to win. not happy with todays racing, i dont feel confident.
Market Rasen
2:15 - Novice Hurdle - oscatello
2:45 - Novice Hurdle - custom design

Warwick
2:30 - Novice Hurdle - killdonan
4:30 - Hunter Chase - knife edge

Naas
3:40 - Novice Handicap Chase - seisiun eile
5:10 - National Hunt Flat Race - in the high grass

[Fadetoblack]

What's your selection for the 5:40 at Naas?

[system1]

I didnt have one. if anything i would go eachway on country cousin.

[Fadetoblack]

I'm sure you had 5:40 in there :doh

That's the NHF by the way

[system1]

i did, i edited it when you so kindly brought it to my attention.

[Fadetoblack]

:laugh that stung...

[system1]

2:15 - Novice Hurdle - oscatello
2:45 - Novice Hurdle - custom design

Warwick
2:30 - Novice Hurdle - killdonan
4:30 - Hunter Chase - knife edge

Naas
3:40 - Novice Handicap Chase - seisiun eile
5:10 - National Hunt Flat Race - in the high grass

4 out of 6. :)

[MarcusMel]

I have no idea what the Profit or Loss of this system is.

[system1]

coutry cousin 3rd eachway.

[wb]

I have no idea what the Profit or Loss of this system is.


Nor me. System, can you please state your stake, bank, P&L etc.

[system1]

ok, your not going to like this.
i use a modified martingale staking system. I bet in blocks of 5, if i dont win in five , i split the target in half and chase the both targets each in other blocks of 5. when i split i stick to the original target (i.e say the target has risen to 20 and the original target was 5 the new target after the split would be 12.5, so when the winner comes in i still hit the target.
I know you will say this is risky and i will meet a long losing run soon, but so far the system has absorbed them. i,ve been doing it for around 2 months, but seriously logging all the details for 5 weeks. The worst so far has been 2 back to back losing blocks of 5, which i managed to put write in a few days. I will continue to see what it throws up, if i get a bad run it will be an opportunity to refine the system further. it depends on a good selection system and i think i,ve got one.

[wb]

Fair enough, but it would be handy to post p&l and how the bank is doing.
Well done with the selections by the way

[system1]

Since it has been suggested that stopping at a winner is not sensible, io have been working through my past selections. if i would have gone to 2 blocks of 5 in a day were possible ( if i have hit my target in the 5 the remaider can be made up to another block of 5) , i would have hit my target 20 times in the last 15 days. I havent been staking with figures, its the losing runs im interested in. i aim to run it for a while and determine my bank by working out how costly the losing runs would be. what ever that figure might be i would aim to treble it at least to set the bank. however much money i can raise will determine the target.




remember i,m still learning :mover

[Win2Win]

Remember, we've all done that and are just trying to save you time :)

[system1]

if your all right, theres a losing streak coming to wipe me out. but when, and why? and can i find a way to ride it out? i appreciate all comments and advice, i am learning a lot from the forum, but you know how it is when learning lessons, sometimes you have to learn it first hand.

[bigcumba]

sometimes you have to learn it first hand.

That may be true, but when it does happen (and it will, believe me!) I only hope it doesn't bite you on the :butthead: too painfully... and like everyone else I'm speaking from bitter experience.

[system1]

i had a bitter experiance about 2 years ago, i devised a system that involved making multiple bets across the field with betfair. it worked on paper during stupidly short paper trial, i switched to cash too soon and got wiped out. i wont switch too early this time.

[system1]

todays selections backed to win
Stratford
2:40 - Beginner's Chase - reel misile
3:10 - Selling Hurdle - soviet joy
5:10 - National Hunt Flat - fredensborg
Taunton

2:50 - Beginner's Chase - give me love
3:50 - Handicap Chase - jupon vert
4:50 - Class Chase - bar gayne

[system1]

a losing day! who,d have thought it

[system1]

my records show Ive got a 85% chance of hitting a winner in tomorrows block of 5. and a 39% chance of it coming in the first selection.

[kookooheed]

so if you got a 39% chance of hitting in the 1st selection it must be a 6/4 chance. am i right. i also get the impression that you are in your young twenties and thinking that this sport is an easy game.believe me this is a long journey,and to make long term profits takes a lot of hard work.listen to the guys on this site because they put in a lot of hard work and have a lot of winning and losing experience

[system1]

I,m listening and learning. I,m not saying i,m going to get rich quick, but i know i,ve got a way of making a small steady stream of money. I expect things to go wrong from time to time, and have ways of dealing with it. My selection methods are good and getting better, because i,m learning. my aim is to set a bank in a few months that will support my system. If i get 3 losing days in a row, I,ll stop posting.

[system1]

I know that everyone is probaly of sick of people like me on the forum, but i have faith in my system, all i ask is let me prove myself with my selections over time. give me some time, and if i,m wrong i,ll accept it.

[MarcusMel]

If the system is a winning one long term then you want to work out when to stop betting into a loseing streak. While it makes no difference long term wether you bet into a losing streak at level stakes it is a significant difference for geometic (erm losses out of control) staking system. So since it is known that wins bunch together stop betting after a losing bunch of 5 and wait for a winner to signal when to start betting again.

[system1]

Its been on trial for 2 months, but only 5 weeks of good record keeping, so its not long term yet. I have been able to absorb the losing days easily so far. it means i dont hit many targets as quickly if i get more than 2 a week, at the moment the average losing days per 7 day week is 1.75. i believe i can get that down, as since i,ve tightened up my rating system results have improved a lot. I am waiting for a bad streak, to see what it throws up, i have several ideas to mimimise the damage of this streak, i think i can contain a losing streak, accepting that targets will slow down dramatically during it. I will be applying this wait for a winner to start again to my results.
my system doesnt rely on level stakes profits, but recently i have been using it as a gauge for my results, obviously the better my level stakes profits, the less strain on the bank.

[MarcusMel]

I repeat:- No method of chosing horses or staking can be profitable if the system is a losing one at level stakes.

[system1]

Cheltenham
2:00 - 2m Novices'Hurdle - masafi
2:35 - Arkle Chase (2m) - racing demon
3:15 - Champion Hurdle - brave inca
4:00 - Handicap Chase - moulin riche
4:40 - Country Handicap - native jack
5:20 - Handicap Hurdle - ouste

without the restrictions of the selection method i,m working with I would have gone for foreman in the 2.35 and commanche war paint in the 4.40

[system1]

I disagree marcus. you,ve had your say I,ve had mine.

[system1]

Publishing my selections has served its purpose for now, I was lookin at my records last night, and i think i,ve made a breakthrough on selections, a figure has been jumping out at me for a while, i woke up this morning with the solution. I am also experimenting with a second compound bank, more research for a while, then i,ll be back to publish my new improved selections with a bank to prove the system.

[MarcusMel]

Wishing you luck - and thankyou for publishing here.