X-poker diary..

[thai-swe]

Hi!
Going to post my results on the x-poker here, layed 8 hands today using a progression but dont let it go to far though it can bust my hole bank.

Friday 31/3

1000 unit bank

1. lay hand 4 @2.55 for 30 units -46.5 units
2. lay hand 2 @3.14 for 60 units +58.5 units
3. lay hand 3 @2.04 for 30 units -31.1 units
4. n/b
5. lay hand 4 @2.84 for 50 units -92.0 units
6. lay hand 1 @2.29 for 140 units +136.5 units
took a break...10 minutes
(simpsons on telly, alredy seen that episode though)

7. lay hand 1 @3.40 for 30 units +29.25 units
8. lay hand 3 @3.37 for 30 units +29.25 units
Stop for today

Reached 253.5 in winnings and had 169.6 in losses
Thats 83.9 units profit for today..

Nice day today.

/thai

[peza2605]

taking a break for the simpsons..... class:D

[thai-swe]

Well what can i say, just love the show:wiggle:

[peza2605]

barney gumball is just like me

[thai-swe]

Did another session and turned out nice..

Opening Bank 1083.9units

1. lay hand 3 @ 2.22 for 30 units -36.60 units
2. lay hand 1 @ 2.78 for 50 units +48.75 units

took a break..

3. lay hand 1 @ 3.20 for 30 units +29.25 units
4. lay hand 1 @ 2.48 for 30 units -44.40 units
5. n/b
6. lay hand 2 @ 3.24 for 60 units +58.50 units

took a Break...

7. lay hand 1 @ 2.98 for 30 units +29.25 units
8. n/b
9. lay hand 1 @ 2.49 for 15 units -22.35 units
10.lay hand 1 @ 3.84 for 30 units -85.20 units
11.lay hand 2 @ 2.72 for 120 units +117 units

Ok here i stop for this session

282.75 - 188.50 =94.25 units profit
Av.odds. 2.77
S/R 55.55%

bank up to 1178.15 units

:REGamblMo

well losing sessions will come..

/thai

[bigcumba]

This is looking interesting Thai, keep it going! :)

[thai-swe]

Bigc i will, i would like add that i just do it on paper and se how good I am at this:smk

The thing is you need to have disaplin and use profit goal and stoploss..

Now i wish you a great weekend guys!

/thai

[thai-swe]

Come home from soccer practise and got the feeling for playing some x-poker and here are the results for today, may come more..


New day! Opening bank 1178.15 units

Trying some trade on them in (these)

CET.
16:13 1. lay hand 4 @2.03 for 15 units.LOST +14.62
16:15 2. lay hand 2 @1.46 for 15 units.LOST +14.62
16:19 3. lay hand 3 @3.14 for 15 units. (Back it @2.36 for 7 units)Lost +7 units
16:23 4. lay hand 2 @2.40 for 15 units. (Back it @1.73 for 7 units)Won -16 units
16:26 5. N/B
16:29 6. lay hand 3 @2.72 for 20 units. (back it @1.84 for 10 units)LOST +9.75units
16:33 7. lay hand 3 @2.36 for 15 units. (back it @1.89 for 7.5 units)LOST +7units
16:37 8. lay hand 1 @1.56 for 15 units. (back it @1.32 for 7.5 units)LOst +7units
16:41 9. n/b
16:44 10.lay hand 1 @2.61 for 15 units. (back it @1.89 for 7.5 units)Won -17.5units
16:47 11.lay hand 4 @3.16 for 15 units. (back it @12.2 for 15 units, hedge it at 12.4) +12 guaranteed

ON 11th i locked in profit
laybility 32.4

183-32.4 =150.6 units
150.6/12.4 =12 units
So i layed it @12.4 for 12 units for a guaranteed profit of 12 units

Nice 40 minutes of play 71.99 units in winnings and 33.5 in losses
Profit 38.48units..

Bank 1216.63 units..:lickme

/thai

[thai-swe]

Some wrong in calculations i fixed it now...:rolleyes:

[thai-swe]

1/4-06 (note. a loss is an win for me)

19:10 1. lay hand 3 @2.31 for 15 units (no trade)Lost +14.65 units
19:12 2. N/B
19:16 3. lay hand 1 @3.40 for 15 units (no trade)Lost +14.65 units
19:20 4. lay hand 1 @3.60 for 15 units (back it @2.00 for 7.5 units)Won -13.5 units
19:24 5. lay hand 1 @3.04 for 15 units (back it @6.5 for 8 units)Lost +6.55 units
19:27 6. n/b

(Break.. "my name is earl" on telly)

20:06 7. n/b
20:09 8. lay hand 3 @3.26 for 15 units (back it @4.40 for 7 units)Lost +7 units

break...

20:55 9. lay hand 3 @3.02 for 15 units (back it @3.50 for 7 units)Lost +7 units
20:58 10.lay hand 1 @2.39 for 15 units (back it @1.64 for 7 units)Won -16 units

This session
In winnings:49.85 units
In losses:29.50 units
In profit:20.35 units

Bank 1236.98 units, it adds up:)
Will se if i play tomorrow..

Good night and Gl Barca in el clasico!:waver

[thai-swe]

(Saturday)

22:56 1. lay hand 4 @2.38 for 15 units. (back it @1.33 for 13 units)Lost +2 units
23:00 2. lay hand 2 @3.04 for 15 units. (back it @4.00 for 11 units)Won +3 units
23:04 3. lay hand 2 @2.38 for 15 units. (no trade) Lost +15 units
23:07 4. lay hand 1 @2.09 for 15 units. (back it @1.46 for 12 units)Won -10.85units
23:11 5. lay hand 3 @2.72 for 15 units. (no trade)lost +15 units

break..

00:07 6. lay hand 4 @2.12 for 15 units. (back it @1.71 for 7 units)Won -12units
00:10 7. lay hand 3 @2.65 for 15 units. (back it @1.49 for 9 units)Lost +6 units
00:14 8. lay hand 3 @2.07 for 15 units. (back it @18.0 for 1 unit)Lost +14 units
00:17 9. lay hand 4 @2.46 for 15 units. (back it @1.25 for 14 units)won -18.4 units
00:21 10.lay hand 4 @2.90 for 15 units. (back it @1.41 for 14 units)won -22.5 units

Down 9 units at this stage decied to play it more tomorrow instead..

(Sunday)

13:06 11.lay hand 2 @2.34 for 15 units. (back it @3.96 for 10 units)Lost +5 units
13:10 12.lay hand 1 @2.54 for 15 units. (back it @1.96 for 8 units)Lost +7 units
13:13 13.lay hand 2 @2.57 for 15 units. (back it @2.53 for 7 units)Lost +7 units
13:17 14.lay hand 2 @3.19 for 15 units. (back it @1.71 for 12 units, and 2 units @1.90)LOst +1 unit
13:21 15.lay hand 3 @2.72 for 15 units. (back it @5.24 for 8 units)Lost +7 units

Oh after a nice 5 whitout loss i stop this session

This session:
In Losses:63.35units
In winnings:82*(0.975)= 79.95units
IN commisssion:2.05 units
In PROFIT: 16.6 units..
In S/R:73.3%

New Bank 1253.58 units

Trading is fun but not that much profit really, but hey it´s profit!:)
This game is all about patience and cut losses and lock in profit :)
/thai

[thai-swe]

Some1 know a better way to keep record of my results?

[thai-swe]

Tried some x-blackjack today, here´s my result

Trying the x-bj

15:10 lay dealer @3.75 for 10 units (back it @248 for 1 unit) +9 units
15:14 lay dealer @3.75 for 10 units (back it @2.01 for 5units) +5 units
15:17 lay dealer @3.75 for 10 units (back it @4.34 for 7units) -4.6 units
15:21 lay dealer @3.75 for 10 units (back it @4.06 for 7 units) +3 units
15:25 lay dealer @3.77 for 10 units (back it @2.18 for 7 units) +3 units
15:27 lay dealer @3.74 for 10 units (back it @2.78 for 5 units) -18 units
15:30 lay dealer @3.74 for 10 units (back it @13.8 for 3 units) +7 units
15:34 lay dealer @3.75 for 10 units (back it @19.9 for 2 units) +8 units
15:37 lay dealer @3.75 for 10 units (back it @1.63 for 9 units) +1 unit
15:40 lay dealer @3.74 for 10 units (back it @7.75 for 5 units) +5 units

Winnings: 41 units*(0.975) =39.95 units
Losses: 22.6 units
Profit: 17.35 units

...
/Thai

[thai-swe]

Total bank 1270.93 units...

[roma]

wow .. I didn' tknow they had x-blackjack, maybe I will give that a try

not tonight though after 3 glasses of wine :geek

It's looking good Thai, are you giving the trial a certain time before you move onto real money? Or is it just for fun?

[thai-swe]

Hi Roma..
Yes it´s a trial think i will do it for a month or so and se if it´s consistant.
Then i will try it whit real money.:)

Good idea to not play wile you you have alcohole in your blod, bad things can happend:D

/thai

[thai-swe]

Not much of a profit today only 8.3 units for 54 minutes trading..but hey it´s still profit:)

4/4-2006
Bank 1270.93 units

15:40 1. lay hand 2 @2.82 for 15 units. (back it @2.45 for 7 units)Lost +8 units
15:44 2. lay hand 4 @2.77 for 15 units. (back it @2.06 for 10 units)Won -16.5 units
15:47 3. lay hand 3 @2.37 for 15 units. (back it @1.81 for 13 units)Won -10 units
15:51 4. N/B
15:55 5. lay hand 4 @2.48 for 20 units. (back it @10 for 4 units)Lost +16 units
15:59 6. N/B
16:02 7. lay hand 4 @2.73 for 15 units. (back it @1.50 for 14 units)Won -19 units
16:05 8. lay hand 4 @2.13 for 15 units. (back it @2.12 for 7 units)Lost +8 units
16:08 9. lay hand 4 @2.15 for 15 units. (back it @4.10 for 9 units)Lost +6 units
16:12 10.n/b
16:16 11.lay hand 3 @2.81 for 15 units. (back it @3.54 for 7 units)Won -9 units
16:19 12.lay hand 2 @3.30 for 20 units. (back it @3.80 for 10 units)Lost +10 units
16:23 13.lay hand 4 @2.83 for 15 units. (back it @8.40 for 5 units)Won +9.5 units (good that i traded that)
16:27 14.lay hand 2 @3.13 for 15 units. (back it @5.05 for 9 units)Lost +6 units
16:30 15.lay hand 2 @2.72 for 15 units. (back it @1.47 for 14 units)Lost +1 units

I stop here today.
Todays session in:
Time:54 minutes
Losses:54.5 units
Winnings:64.5 * 0.975 = 62.8 units
Profit:8.3 units
Commission:1.7 units
S/R: 57%
Bank 1278.93 units

Ohh not that good session, but i demonstrate the advantages with lock ing profit look at hand number 13..
The price went up to 8.40 and i it won in the end..
....
/thai

[thai-swe]

HI!
Tried to back some at the xpoker today and here are my results..
I do not count this into my bank here at the diary!
trying to back, aiming for 10 units Profit/session.

1. back hand 4 @2.24 for 8 units Lost -8 units
2. back hand 1 @2.71 for 10.5 units -10.5 units
3. back hand 3 @2.17 for 24.3 units -24.3 units
4. back hand 1 @2.66 for 31.8 units -31.8 units
5. back hand 3 @1.55 for 153 units +84.15 units (10 units Won, new session..)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. back hand 3 @2.15 for 8.6 units +10 units (10 units Won, new session..)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. back hand 2 @1.84 for 11.9 units +10 units (10 units Won, new session..)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. back hand 4 @2.73 for 5.7 units -5.7 units
2. back hand 1 @3.08 for 7.5 units +15.7 units (10 units Won, new session..)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. back hand 1 @2.06 for 9.4 units -9.4 units
2. back hand 1 @2.47 for 13.2 units +19.4 units (10 units Won, new session..)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. back hand 4 @2.57 for 6.4 units +10 units (10 units Won, new session..)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. back hand 2 @2.33 for 7.5 units -7.5 units
2. back hand 1 @2.81 for 9.6 units -9.6 units
3. back hand 3 @2.75 for 15.5 units -15.5 units
4. back hand 4 @2.68 for 26 units +43.68 units (11 units Won, new session..)

Stop here at 71 unit up..

See grahf:)

[thai-swe]

Got a cleen sheet today, my first one and i hope it will be more sessions as this:)

Trading X-poker (never let´it ride)

16:51 1. Lay Hand 3 @3.05 for 20 units Back @9.40 for 7 units Lost +13 units
16:54 2. Lay Hand 2 @2.07 for 20 units Back @4.18 for 12 units Lost +8 units
16:58 3. N/B
17:01 4. N/B
17:04 5. Lay Hand 3 @2.16 for 20 units Back @5.84 for 10 units Won +25 units
17:07 6. Lay Hand 1 @2.57 for 20 units Back @35.5 for 2 units Lost +18 units
17:11 7. N/B
17:15 8. Lay Hand 2 @3.06 for 20 units Back @2.63 for 15 units Lost +5 units
17:19 9. Lay Hand 1 @2.95 for 20 units Back @2.16 for 15 units Lost +5 units
17:22 10.Lay Hand 3 @2.59 for 20 units Back @2.34 for 12 units Lost +8 units

Stop here nice clean sheet today..

Bank up 82 units*(0.975) =80 units

Including a graf over this session here, not commission in the graf:rolleyes:

[thai-swe]

Overall profit 8 sessions...:D
2486

[thai-swe]

Trading X-poker (never let´it ride)

12:59 1. Lay hand 3 @3.22 for 20 units (back it @4.56 for 15 units)Lost +5 units
13:03 2. Lay hand 4 @2.66 for 20 units (back it @3.44 for 12 units)Lost +8 units
13:06 3. Lay hand 4 @2.89 for 20 units (Back it @6.85 for 8 units)Lost +12 units
13:10 4. N/B
13:13 5. Lay hand 4 @2.92 for 15 units (Back it @1.90 for 20 units)Won -10 units
13:17 6. Lay hand 3 @2.78 for 20 units (Back it @2.87 for 20 units)Won +2 units

Stop here for today
Winnings 27*(0.975)= 26.3
Losses 10
Profit 16.3 units

Bank 1377.3 units:)

/thai

[thai-swe]

Trading X-poker (never let´it ride)

12:06 N/B
12:09 Lay hand 1 @3.04 for 20 units (Back it @2.18 for 20 units. Hedge it -8 units
12:13 Lay hand 2 @2.85 for 20 units (Back it @5.70 for 20 units. Hedge it +10 units
12:16 Lay hand 3 @2.43 for 20 units (Back it @2.66 for 20 units. Hedge it +1.8 units
12:19 N/B

Break..

12:27 Lay hand 1 @2.59 for 20 units (Back it @2.16 for 20 units. Hedge it -4 units
12:31 N/B
12:34 Lay hand 2 @2.44 for 20 units (Back it @2.00 for 10 units) Lost +9.75 units
12:38 Lay hand 4 @3.12 for 20 units (Back it @4.20 for 20 units. Hedge it +6.2 units
12:41 N/B
12:45 Lay hand 3 @2.27 for 20 units (Back it @2.35 for 20 units. Hedge it +0.6 units
12:49 Lay hand 3 @2.70 for 20 units (Back it @3.18 for 20 units. Hedge it +2.9 units
12:52 Lay hand 1 @2.40 for 20 units (Back it @1.85 for 20 units. Hedge it -5.9 units
12:55 N/B
12:59 Lay hand 3 @2.60 for 20 units (Back it @1.15 for 20 units) -29 units
13:02 Lay hand 4 @3.16 for 20 units (Back it @3.90 for 20 units. Hedge it +3.7 units
13:06 Lay hand 2 @2.85 for 20 units (Back it @90 for 20 units. Hedge it +18.5 units

Stop here
In winnings 53.5 units
In losses 47 units
In profit 6.5 units

phuu not that good session but still profit huh..
Bank 1383.8 units:)

[Win2Win]

Will you be starting a service to put our bets on? :)

[shaunhurn]

Nice reading, i managed to win 7k on poker i then lost it ;fire, easy come easy go but with zero discipline i should of expected it

[thai-swe]

Well keith not that secure method just yet:D

Sorry to hear that shaunhurn, i assume that you didnt trade? Why not set up profit goals and stoploss?

Well GL whit your x-poker in the future..


/Thai

[shaunhurn]

it was really hard to explain and now its in the past.. move forward

[thai-swe]

Monday 10/4

Trading X-poker (never let´it ride)

13:38 1. N/B
13:41 2. Lay hand 3 @2.80 for 20 units (Back it @10.60 for 6 units)Lost +14 units
13:45 3. Lay hand 3 @2.89 for 15 units (Back it @4.42 for 9 units)Lost +6 units
13:48 4. N/B
13:52 5. N/B

Break..(Betfair games gets laggy)

Stop here, not long session a know but i had to go..

In winnings 20 units*(0.975)=19.5 units
In losses 0 units
In profit 19.5 units
Bank 1403.3 units

/thai

[kingmob]

I traded yesterday for about 5-6 hrs. I ended up losing 300 bucks.

I think I have it figured out pretty well, but I will love me some advice.

I think I would have ended up about even, if I haven't made some disastrous mistakes. I tried to over-insure my lay bets, by laying on other hands. When doing that, you have to lay on a hand with the worst odds, and obviously the lay odds are really against you. It happened twice to me, where I did that, and the cards came up against the probabilities to cost me some serious bucks. Bad luck, but still that's a bad idea.

So far, the ground rules that I think must be established when trading:

1. Don't chase the liability with liability(Lay with larger lay)
2. Go for a sure profit, even if you think that the next round will give you better match odds to lock in on the profit
3. Have a set liability, and don't go over it.
4. Limit yourself not to play every turn. Sometimes its really hard to determine the starting Card to lay.
5. Try to always play the weakest card

I played by laying the weakest pair, and tried to hedge myself for guaranteed profit by backing the same pair. I worked about 85-90% of the time. But that other 10% is when you are in trouble. I would go 20-30 cards without a loss, make around 70-80 dollars, and then I would get a bad flop, and the weakest pair would become a favourite and there goes my hour of work.

What do you guys think is the best way to do this? Do you guys this its more advantageous to back and try to lay for profit, or to lay and back for profit?

Also, I learned to put some excess money on other pairs to try to lock in on additional profit.

I hear there are bots available now that do the work on the Poker Exchanges for you. Anybody know anyting about this?

[roma]

I have been trading blackjack rather than poker but I guess the principles are the same.

I wait for a hand to lose several times in a row before I back it, or win several times in a row before I lay it. Then once I have placed my bet, on the next deal I trade either to guarantee a profit or to minimise a loss. Of course you can get a long run. So I increase the stakes after a loss but I have a rule that if I lose three times in a row, I stop. Sometimes I forget about this rule and the result is always bad! I am not sure yet if this will be profitable long term and I wonder what Thai-Swe's rules are because he seems to be doing very well if only on paper. :)

The risk I think is if you don't stop when you are losing. It feels like you must try to get back to evens but really it is better to stop and come back to it fresh the next day.

Most of the time I can see I am playing against bots. Apart from that I do not know anything about them.

[mathare]

Almost every bet on the exchange games will be from a bot. Take the poker example and before any cards are dealt watch the markets form at 3.98/4.02. That's bots creating the market around the true odds of 4.0 since at that point each hand has an equal chance of winning.

I did look at exchange poker at the start of the year and produced my thoughts for members upstairs somewhere.

[kingmob]

Mr. Mathare, would you be helpful enough to find that info somewhere. I don't know where it could be or what to search for.

Also, are all the bots on the x-poker are human run? If so, is it even profitable?

[mathare]

Check your PMs Kingmob

[thai-swe]

As response to romas thoughs i can say that i have been using a lot of diffrent plans over the diary.
The plan that works best for me is trading the x-poker i like to lay favorites pre-flop or at flop and then hopefully trade out whit profit.

Starting on paper is good, just remember always trade out for profit and small loss if possible, better to be safe then sorry...

Ohh regarding bots, they put money in to the market so you can play 24/7 for slighter worse odds..it´s not betfairs bots though they belong to people that can afford big loss short term but always win long term (big bank)

More sessions from me are coming up..
See ya out there :)
/Thai-swe

[kingmob]

Anybody know where one get those bots?

BTW, I have been playing more, and I have played for about 5-6 hours over the last day or so, and haven't lost anything, in fact won about 150 bucks or so.

I have learned to maximize my profits and minimize losses.

My one recommendation so far is to almost never lay first. Laying exposes you to huge liabilities.

Its almost always better to back, and preferrably do it after the first flop.


You can also, win a good coin, if you wait till the last round, and see if there is a huge favourite on the table against one or two really weak hands with odds higher than 11 or so. Then you can back with a lot of cash to win a decent pot. The odds are really in your favour. Just something to think about.

[kingmob]

Mathare, your mailbox is full, so I coudn't properly thank you, So thank you :)

You pretty much stated my experience in your summary, and just like me gave up on laying. Laying will not work in the long term. What I am doing right now is a lot safer, but still profitable albeit a little slower.

[thai-swe]

Anybody know where one get those bots?

You cant get them anyware, the existing bots are created by the owner of them, they can program c++ or java..:wink

Ps. you also need a big BR for having a bot...
/thai-swe

[mathare]

Mathare, your mailbox is full, so I coudn't properly thank you, So thank you :)I just spotted that and emptied it a bit, but no worries. Glad you found some of it useful anyway :)

[kingmob]

I made a grand today playing X-poker. I think the way I described above is as safe and profitable as it gets with it.

[kingmob]

Made another $1000 today. This could become a very nice income maker for me.

[mathare]

Perhaps you could give a few lessons for other forum members KM.

Note the odds and cards for a sample hand or two and talk us through them perhaps...

[kingmob]

Mathare, I'm up over 4500 in less than 3 days. I think this might be the opportunity I was looking for.

There is a mathematical formula that probably can explain what I'm doing, but I haven't wrote it down on paper yet to look at my methods to deduct it.

I will play around with this for a few more days and see how its turning out and then let you guys know how I'm doing and how you guys can profit from this too.

But I am very excited.

[Nick777]

This is a very dangerous game....

I thought I'd make £30 a day = £900 per month. To start with it was all roses, each day building and building. I was backing the favourite after the first two cards were dealt. Then I hit the inevitable run of 16 consecutive favourites losing. Cost me £3,000.

I did it again a few weeks later and lost another £3,000.

I have been keeping records and currently stand £976 DOWN.

Now I just skim.....make £2 profit per run. Start with £2. If it loses then put enough on to get that £2 back and the original intended profit of £2. When I get to 12 or so losers, I'm up to about £100. Won't go above £100 but will go for a few hands at £100 to try and recoup. Give up with a loss of £500.

Let you know how it goes. Made £90 in the last few days, just going on when I have a chance to rake in the £2's....:D

[roma]

I've tried this kind of thing too Nick. It so seems like it ought to work ... but then it doesn't ... :(

I was starting with just 50p stakes on x-poker and had to go over £200 once or twice to cover the losses. I was going to try it with a £1000 bank but I did some tests with random numbers and worked out I would inevitably lose it long term, even with only 50p starting stakes, and it would be more profitable to invest the £1000 in banks for the backing systems at 2% stakes.

Based on the tests I did and what I have read in books, I think long term you will find you will be getting the £500 losses more often than you can make £500 profit ... the same being true whatever your threshold is ... and this is why it does not work ... though of course you could be lucky and make a profit short term.

So good luck and I hope it's just for fun! And keep posting :)

[Nick777]

I must be the unluckiest guy in the world...I've been backing the favouties after the flop, and got stung a couple of times....especially when there were 16 consecutive losing hands...so I tried laying the favourite.....guess what.......11 consecutive winning hands on the favourite.......I was slaughtered.....not sure what to do now.....

[Nick777]

Maybe bots are the answer.....get the bots to watch for those long runs and then when one occurs, back or lay at a certain point e.g. 20 consecutive hands either way, then increase starting from £2 up to £128.......

you'd need 27 consecutive losers and the max you could lose would be £128...

[roma]

No ... sadly it does not make any difference if you start when there have already been a certain number of losers. :(

You would only be betting when a long run occurs, so you would be betting far less frequently. Therefore you would hit a run of 16 losers, starting with YOUR first bet, regardless of how many losers there have been before, just as often.

Say the chance of a run of at least 16 is 1 in 300 (that is a wild guess and obviously will vary with the odds). The chance of a run of 32 may be 1 in 300x300. So it is true that it is very unlikely. But because you are only starting to bet after the first 16 have lost, you are only betting 1 in 300 times. Therefore the chance of YOU getting a run of 16 starting with your first bet (ie a total run of 32) is still 1 in 300. And you will not make quite enough money from the other 299 runs to cover the loss when you hit the 300th.

This is because you are usually betting at slightly worse than the real odds (because most of the time you have to take the odds that are offered, and there is that little difference between the lay odds and the back odds).

If you set your threshold at £128, you will just find that long term you lose the £128 more often than you can win £128 on the smaller runs.

The only way that this will make money is if you have an "edge" ie if you use this kind of staking with a system that would make money at level stakes. Otherwise long term you will lose. And if it would make money at level stakes, you can probably make more by doing level stakes because you will be able to safely bet a larger proportion of your bank.

Or, it can make money short term if you are lucky and can stop before you hit a big losing run.

There is a great book called Fixed Odds Sports Betting by Joseph Buchdahl, I bought it with my Amazon token that SC gave me for winning his comp and it was a great buy for someone like me who is always tempted to do this kind of staking .. it explains all this much better than I can in the Staking Strategy chapter.

As for what to do now ... maybe stop?

I lost about £500 doing this kind of thing which is a lot for me, it was about 25% of my total betting banks at the time, it was very very hard to stop and not to try to win that back but as I most definitely did not want to lose that amount again, I wrote it off ... maybe I would have won it back ... but maybe I would have lost all of my betting banks ... :yikes:

[mathare]

That's agood book is that Roma, I agree.

But in terms of exchange poker I will give my thoughts on it again. In my opinion this is a game for trading only.

My tactic was to lay a dominated hand pre-flop and back it again at bigger odds on the flop or turn.

By a dominated hand I'm talking about things like K9 v J9. If a 9 hits the second hand is dominated as the K9 is still in front. If a J hits there are still outs for the K9 to go back in front.

I've not used this strategy for a while but to me it's one that makes a lot of sense.

And I'd forget bots really if I were you Nick. The exchange poker markets are already flooded with them. What do you think sets the odds available in the first place? It's bots setting up 3.98/4.02 on the first round of betting and pretty much the correct odds on every other round. You are fighting a losing battle more or less due to the number of bots each setting roughly the right odds (give or take a little less for the backs, more for the lays). So in effect you're just playing the stats at breakeven odds but having to pay commission so you're in effect losing on each hand on average.

[roma]

What if instead of waiting for a certain number of losses in a row to have passed, you watched & waited until you would have been a certain number of points down if you were betting, and then you start betting level stakes on the assumption that a correction is due? & as soon as you are 1 point in profit, stop betting for real and wait for your theoretical bank to be well down again.

Not really doable on Betfair as from my random number tests I think you would have to wait until you would theoretically have been about 30 pts down, at least the first time, in case you happen to have started when a big losing run was due. (For subsequent runs with my small sample it works when you are another 15 pts down each time.) I ended up with 5 pts profit over about 1350 numbers. One time I would have had to wait 600 goes before I bet! Also one time the "real" bets did go down to -9 before coming up into profit so you would need a good bank. And there must be a "point of no return" beyond which it becomes very unlikely to recover.

So on Betfair you would have to sit there for hours (or days???) waiting for your chance to bet. Also thinking about the commission plus the fact that the odds are slightly against you, you might be as well off %-wise betting red/black on European roulette in a casino. Some of them make you bet on every throw but others don't.

Is this another one of those things that sounds like it ought to work, but in fact doesn't? Or would this really tip the odds in your favour?

- though whether it is worth it for the hours you would have to put in, even with a casino with a very fast roulette wheel, I am not sure!
:(

[roma]

Answering my own question, the problem is that if the loss was very gradual, then a correction would NOT be due ... maybe even the opposite. So I suppose it wouldn't work
:(

[thai-swe]

I Promised more sessions and they will come cuz iam back finaly!

Bank 1403.3 units

[thai-swe]

Trying some baccarat with a prog that i need to test :)..
(I´m including the Comm..2.5%)

21:11 back Bank @1.97 for 5 units Won + 4.72 Units
21:14 back Bank @1.97 for 5 Units Won + 4.72 Units
21:17 back Bank @1.97 for 10 units Won +9.45 Units

--->Stop here, use target of 10+ Units

+18.89 Units For the day, I´m happy with that:lickme
Bank 1422.19 Units

[simcom]

Hey, I'm new but found this thread/forum through a search for some Exchange Games related topic, but spent so long here browsing around I forgot what I was originally looking for!

Just interested to know if there was ever any feedback from kingmob about what mathare told him? I'm intrigued!