Golden Lays staking

[andyp]

I was looking at Keiths Golden Lays results last night and noticed that rarely does he have 2 losing bets in a row (in fact i dont think he has).

So i thought, for a staking plan would it be avisable to bet to level stakes each bet, but when you have a losing bet, the following stake would be what we had just lost.

Example

Bet 1 = £10 stake @ 3.2 - horse comes 4th = £10 Profit
Bet 2 = £10 stake @ 7.8 - horse comes 7th = £10 Profit
Bet 3 = £10 stake @ 5.2 - horse comes 1st = - £42 loss
Bet 4 = £52 stake (£10 normal stake + £42 loss from previous bet) @ 4.6 - horse comes 5th = £52 profit

This would hopefully always keep us in profit. I understand that my starting betting bank must be bigger, but if the selections continue to be this good it may be an excellent way to guarentee profit?!

Any suggestions welcome.. :)

[mathare]

Suppose 2 in a row do come along though, then what do you do? Do you chase your losses with the next one? What if that wins?

While this is worth bearing in mind I would suggest you monitor the Golden lays for a while longer and work out a likely long term strike rate and use that to work out the chances of losing runs of 2, 3, 4 etc in length (I posted a spreadie that will help with this a short while back) and use that to see how likely you are to end up with a huge stake riding on a selection.

[Win2Win]

The 3 months of Golden lay results probably equate to 2-3 weeks Pro-Loser results, and we can go a few weeks with them before hitting 5 in a row!!

[roma]

Suppose 2 in a row do come along though, then what do you do? Do you chase your losses with the next one? What if that wins?


Example - altered a bit

Bet 1 = £10 stake @ 3.2 - horse comes 4th = £10 Profit
Bet 2 = £10 stake @ 7.8 - horse comes 7th = £10 Profit
Bet 3 = £10 stake @ 5.2 - horse comes 1st = - £42 loss
Bet 4 = £52 stake (£10 normal stake + £42 loss from previous bet) @ 9 - horse comes 1st = - £416 loss
Bet 5 = £468 stake (£10 normal stake + £416 + £42 losses from previous bets) @ 6 - horse comes 1st = - £2340 loss

:yikes: :yikes: :yikes:

I like stepped stakes generally but with lays (or odds-on backing) it is scary ...

I expect 3 in a row is unlikely but 2 is surely possible and then you would need that £2000+ in your Betfair account to cover the liability on the third bet even if it did not come 1st (and hide under the table with a bottle of valium while the race was on) :yikes:

Yes I put a winner at 9 in there, but I don't think that's unrealistic, I've had two Golden Lay winners this month and they were at 7.4 and 10. Last month's were lower but sod's law and all that ...

If it was £1 stakes it would not be so bad, but I think to feel safe I would want to be able to cover three losses in a row and still be able to place the 4th bet (which would mean a stake of £280 with a liability of up to £2520 at cutoff of 10 in the above example with £1 stakes, plus originally you'd have to have had the amount already lost) - it's a lot to be risking for a quid

(that's if my maths is right now on the 3rd edit) Ooo

[roma]

Although if it turns out that 2 in a row is very unlikely, like one in 1000 or something, you could increase the stake as you suggest after a win and if the second one lost, just write it off, and accept that it would set you back a couple of months or so depending on the winning odds. Whether that would be more profitable than level stakes depends on the probability of 2 in a row and the winning odds and all that. My experience of stepped stakes is that "unlikely" runs always happen sooner than you think they will :(

[tophatter]

two in a row isnt unlkely though, in fact it is very likely maybe inevetible. Thee has only been around 120 selections so far and you can not make assumptions about losing runs on a sample that small. The strike rate is over 90% at the moment but in doing the Pro-losers I have had runs of 100 bets with a 90% strike rate. I also have had runs of 100 bets with 75% strike rate. Even if it stayed at 90%+ I still think you will have two in a row several time in a year and three and four or more in a row will probably happen at least once a year and again probably more.

Best thing as with all these things is not to be in a rush and just take it slowly and let it work naturally - there is no rush. Its like baking a cake, if you put the heat up on the oven too high and try and cook it quicker than advised you may have it nice and cooked on the outside but the deeper you get into it will not be done properly and if you are not careful you will end up with a nasty taste in the mouth and end up feeling sick!

[andyp]

Thanks people. Dont worry, no rush of bood to the head for me... i am happy just building my bank up gradually and with £5 stakes! Just used the £10 as an example.

Thanks again

[Win2Win]

If you mix the Golden Lays with Vegy's tips, you'll NEVER get two winners in a row :D

[roma]

If you mix the Golden Lays with Vegy's tips, you'll NEVER get two winners in a row :D

Vegy's Only Good System Ever - NH Backs!
Thursday, May 18th
COURSE TIME SELECTION RP Fc RESULT SP LSP TOTAL LSP
Perth 2.05 Broken Reed 4-5 WON 11-10
Perth 2.35 Portavadie 7-4 Non Rnner
Perth 4.45 Spring Margot 2-1 WON 2-1


:yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: