Question about trading

[glynners]

I'll be the first to admit I'm an amature when it comes to betting and one thing that confuses me a little is 'Trading'

I may be being stupid but here goes....I think it involves betting on something when odds are high and then laying it when the odds drop significantly but ensuring you arent liable for more than you could win... i think :doh

am I on the right track so far?

[mathare]

Your aim is to back at a higher price than you lay at - yes. That way you should make more from the back than you lose on the lay (if it wins) and make at least as much on the lay as you lose on the back (if it loses).

So you may back a runner at 10 for £5 and lay it again at 5. If you lay it for £5 and it wins you lose £20 on the lay but return £50 on the back making you a profit of £25 (exc. commission). If it loses you win £5 on the lay and lose £5 on the back.

Now suppose you back it at 10 for £5 but lay it at 5 for £9. If it wins you lose £36 on the lay and return £50 on the back for a profit of £9 (exc. comm). If it loses you win £9 on the lay and lose £5 on the back for a profit of £4 (exc. comm). You win this way whether it wins or loses, but your profit if it wins is reduced

[mathare]

Oh yeah - you can either back at the high price first, anticipating the odds coming in, or you can lay at the low price first, anticipating the odds to drift out. Both work out the same way but by laying first you are committing more money to the bet initially due to your liability on the lay until you trade the bet off whereas all you have at risk when you back first is your stake.

[Win2Win]

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[glynners]

cheers matt,

I'll give example I was looking at to show why I ask. nothing major but it got me thinking

Earlier today I backed D Villa to be Top Scorer at World Cup @ 18 for £2, now, after his 2 goals hes gone down to 6s.

So in theory if I lay him for a £5 at 6 I'll be up either way? (granted its only a couple of quid either way but just in theory so I can get my head round it)

[glynners]

Just download & play with Betangel Free www.exchangebots.com

i'll give that a do aswell, cheers :)

[mathare]

Earlier today I backed D Villa to be Top Scorer at World Cup @ 18 for £2, now, after his 2 goals hes gone down to 6s.

So in theory if I lay him for a £5 at 6 I'll be up either way? (granted its only a couple of quid either way but just in theory so I can get my head round it)You effectively have £34 of profit on the back to play with on the trade. As long as you don't lay him for more than £34 liability you'll be fine. £5 at 6s means your liability is £25.

If he wins the Golden Boot you profit to the tune of £9 but if he doesn't win you make £3. You could increase the lay stakes a bit more if you want a better balance or weight it towards him winning/not winning if you want a sure profit plus a bit of a gamble

[Win2Win]

Trade back your stake, then you have a free bet :)

[glynners]

Just one more thing, this probably is really thick of me, but if say I bet £2 on odds of 1000 on betfair on someone to be top scorer, then say the guy scores hat-trick and his odds dramatically drop, let to around 10 because of it. Can I lay him for £100 even if I dont have that in credit?

Because the way I'm thinking, if he wins golden boot, i make £1998 from original bet then lose £1000 on the lay.

But if he doesnt win I make £100.

this is all just theory, again trying to get my head round the fundamentals

[MattR]

Yep, that's right Glynners, minus commission of course. You can lay because you already have a potential win of 1998 so you are laying against that.

[glynners]

Cheers Matt, I hoped it would be that, but I would also be able to understand why you'd need the actual credit before you could lay

:)

[clotty]

Trade back your stake, then you have a free bet :)

Just out of curiosity, would you advise this action in every similar circumstance? For example, you backed at 100 and it steamed down to 60, would it not make sense to ensure some profit on the lay, as th chances of a success on the back are very slim?

[MattR]

Clotty, personally, I would weight it depending on what I thought would happen. For instance if it were a team that got through the group stage but I couldn't see them winning I would green it up even at least. If I felt they could go through another stage then get it to how Keith says for a free bet or perhaps a small win just in case they should lose, and then lay some more once through.

[wb]

As matt says, each bet should be judged on its own merits seperately. If you really feel that the bet wont win, it is probably best to green up. BUT... if you do trade out, for what is usually a SMALL profit, will you be kicking yourself if the bet goes on to win?

To give an example:

You backed a horse at 10 using £20. The price drops to 5. Assuming you are on 5% commission, You can trade out by laying the horse using £40.20 to ensure a profit of £18.19. But if the horse goes on to win, will you be happy with £18.19 when you would have won £180 if you had of left things be?

It really is a tough decision sometimes. Best of luck with it anyway :)