Partial lottery wheel

[tipp]

Hello
Does anybody know where to find or how to create v=?,k=6,t=3,m=4.Partial Wheel for the Lotto, I would imagine there must be a formula or a software program. I have posted here as I think they use them for casino's also. Hope you can help.

Thank's
Tipp

[eruptive plot]

dont mean to put you off,but check this out http://www.lotterymanual.com/PAGE2.htm?source=google

[presto]

i would just stay well clear of the lottery - it really is a mug's game.
just look at the odd's (at a glance) as an accumulator bet.

6/49
5/48
4/47
3/46
2/45
1/44

SO:

8.16 X 9.6 X 11.75 X 15.3 X 22.5 X 44 = 13,942,026 / 1
so to win the jackpot the odd's are roughly 14 million to 1. i don't know how big the lottery jpot is - around £3 mill at a guess, so 14mill/1 to win £3 mill is pretty cack - and if there is more than 1 winner then :splapme

............................................

[TheOldhamWhisper]

And I'd also steer clear of any Lottery Manuals that claim they can increase your chances of winning! The odds are the same for any 6 numbers and there is no manual, system or other device that can change that fact!

[presto]

i just looked at the manual too - :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh what a joke:

hot numbers :laugh
40% advantage :laugh
random numbers are bad :laugh (they have the same chance as any other).
lazy picks :laugh

[bigcumba]

Remember when the lottery first started and there were no end of software programs around to 'help' you find that winning line.... some of them even had the cheek to charge you for the software and I'm sure I even saw one boxed version in the old Electronics Boutique shops. The lottery is definitely not my idea of even a fun bet, though my wife does a couple of quid a week on it with her mum.... still if we do win the big one I won't be complaining!

[tipp]

Thanks Eruptive Plot
In theory they may be correct, In practice they are wrong, Once you have
three numbers its a bit like holding a pair of aces in poker and trying to make a hand with a ten card flop instead of three card flop. If you have a row of six numbers with three in, you get the same three in multiple rows and many
chances to make one a four number or more. It is 57-1 aganst getting three
numbers, it makes sense to exploit having achieved that, by having as many other numbers to try to get more, as is financially practicle. the alternative
is random rows, which of course might have a winning row among them,
but if a row has the first three in it and no more,you start your next row from zero and have to find three more to yet again have only three solitary numbers to make your fortune. If the the odds of a jackpot line are nearly
14,000,000 to one, then what are the remaining odds of getting three more
from the remaining 46 numbers.
However all this is not achieving my objective.

Thanks for your input.

Be lucky
Tipp

[tipp]

Hello Whisper
So if I perm any 6 from seven, seven rows effectivly do I not then have
the situation = any 6 from 49 but from 7 numbers rather than 6. and if 3 come up will I not have them several times.
Best Wishes Tipp.

[tipp]

Hey ,Presto
Who said anything about manuals,or winning millions, My interest in the lottery is multiple threes and fours. Hence my original request.

Cheers Tipp

[presto]

i was just commenting on the manual in the link (the 2nd post). - and what tosh they are trying to flog for $20.

instead of looking at a lottery system be it singles, multiples etc, that are a 'guaranteed loss' whatever way you look at them, wouldn't it be more productive to look at something with a 'skill' element, such as footy / horse racing or whatever. to look foe the big payoff with a small bet on larged price accie bet.

[tipp]

Hi Guys and Girls
Heres a thought, When I go to the lottery selling shop there are a few
people buying tickets,but when there is a roll over there are queues of them.
What are they saying ?
I don't want three million but I wouldn't mind seven million.
Tipp,

[vegyjones]

What are they saying ?
We don't know! :ooo

It's unlikely any of us were in your particular lottery selling shop at the time :doh

That reminds me, I must get down to the shop and buy myself a lottery!
Someone should tell Richard Branson they're that easy to buy! :yikes:

[wb]

This reminds me of an argument I had with my wife when I picked my lotto numbers as: 1,2,3,4,5,6 & 7

She could not understand that my particular combination had exactly the same chance as her combination.


:headbange

[presto]

Hi Guys and Girls
Heres a thought, When I go to the lottery selling shop there are a few
people buying tickets,but when there is a roll over there are queues of them.
What are they saying ?
I don't want three million but I wouldn't mind seven million.
Tipp,

GREED

[vegyjones]

Are you allowed to pick seven numbers!

That's kind of cheating! :doh

No wonder she didn't understand that your seven had the same chance as her six! :D

[wb]

Are you allowed to pick seven numbers!

That's kind of cheating! :doh

No wonder she didn't understand that your seven had the same chance as her six! :D

:laugh

Mabey it was six. Have not done the lottery in ages.

[vegyjones]

You don't back Rangers to win then :yikes:

:peeky (Note to self - Do not start Scottish football wars on the forum!!)

[tipp]

Bums and willies veggie

[vegyjones]

Buns and Wellies Teep

[bigcumba]

This reminds me of an argument I had with my wife when I picked my lotto numbers as: 1,2,3,4,5,6 & 7

the main problem with that sort of combination is that there are likely to be a few dozen folk out there, all doing the same thing, thinking no one else will be that clever, and would get a fright when the jackpot came up split 25 ways! :)

[wb]

the main problem with that sort of combination is that there are likely to be a few dozen folk out there, all doing the same thing, thinking no one else will be that clever, and would get a fright when the jackpot came up split 25 ways! :)

Yeah. I think I just did it to get on her nerves though.

[tipp]

Bigcumber

Check that perm on those exact back numbers you will be surprised.Tipp

[bigcumba]

Bigcumber

Check that perm on those exact back numbers you will be surprised.Tipp

I imagine you're right on that Tipp... I'd be more inclined though to go for the other end of the numbers though - from 49 down, probably less folk trying that one. Also the numbers from 32 up don't get used by folk doing birthdays unless they use years rather than days, so it's 'supposed' to be a better idea to include more of those.

[tipp]

Hi again Big cumber
I share your reasoning, I do a wheel on the first 8 numbers and another on the last 8 with good results. the trouble is now so many people also share the
same reasoning about the aniversary dates it has cancelled its self out now.
Tipp

[tipp]

Bigcumber, Believe in big J and the afterlife, It's a nailed on certainty.

[mathare]

Believe in big JI know a few people on here believe in a big J :smokin

[TheOldhamWhisper]

This reminds me of an argument I had with my wife when I picked my lotto numbers as: 1,2,3,4,5,6 & 7



The numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 are played every week by some 42,000 people who all think they will be multi-millionaires when their numbers come up :doh

So if I perm any 6 from seven, seven rows effectivly do I not then have
the situation = any 6 from 49 but from 7 numbers rather than 6. and if 3 come up will I not have them several times

I actually used to play this myself and indeed you do get bigger payoffs. I won £595 and £386 on the two occasions that I hit 4 numbers and several times I hit 3 numbers for £40 - but you have to also bear in mind that it was costing me £7 per week to play. My chances of winning the jackpot? Exactly the same as anyone else playing 7 lines (whether they are permutations or random numbers).

If you really want to play the lottery, at least play the Irish lottery in a bookies and get 'true odds'.

[eruptive plot]

If you really want to play the lottery, at least play the Irish lottery in a bookies and get 'true odds'.



a bookie that gives "true odds":yikes:
thats a new one tow.
i know what your trying to say, "BETTER value than camelot"

[tipp]

Hello Oldham Whisper
Shall we have a little comparision with what you get for your quid between the honest Bookie and the lottery.

For your pound on the Irish Lottey you have to find 3 winning numbers to
win about £450 .

On Lotto you get approximately (or used to when it started) this for a quid


20 X £0.0011p trebles with each number paying 20/1 3 winning numbers = £10.

15 X £0.0011p fourfolds with each number paying 20/1, 4 winning numbers =
£213.

6 X £0.0011p fivefolds with each number paying 20/1. 5 winning numbers =
£4492-00.

6 X £0.0022p fivefolds with bonus ball with each number paying 20/1 =
£197262.00.

1 X £0.10p sixfold with each number paying 20/1 =£8,576,612.00

Total stakes approx £0-30p

Commissions and other expenses £0-20p

Good Causes £0-50p

= £1-00


Now, Oldham Whisper, How many people do (YOU) know who have won over
one million on multiple bets down the honest Bookie, Or half a million even
or maybe one hundred grand, no , how about 50k or 1k. Not many I would
Guess . I dont know what the top limits are at the Bookies these days but the best used to be £500,000. The bookie on the corner by me has a limit of 10k, Well there are hundreds of lottery millionaires.In Folly Road in Mildenhall
there are known to be four people who have seperatly won over a million. I bet they are glad they never took heed of your advice.
It is a mugs bet but thousnds of people win every week with no skill or expertise whatsoever.

Be Lucky
Tipp

[Win2Win]

Now, Oldham Whisper, How many people do (YOU) know who have won over
one million on multiple bets down the honest Bookie, Or half a million even
or maybe one hundred grand, no , how about 50k or 1k. Not many I would
Guess
Quite a large number actually. 1K is easy when you know the folk I do, 10K are also common (£250 stakes hit it easily), 50K not uncommon (these are the big players so Mr Bookie doesn't shout about these win). 100K I know of 3. 250K I'm aware of 2 this year, but I don't know them.....£1M...bookies only increased there limits this year.

The lottery is a mugs bet & a rip-off......70% take out :yikes: That make the Tote look like an angel with 20%-30% take=out.

I know of no one who has won over £5000 on the lottery since it started, and that is 1000's of people, a good lot of people who have knocked up over £1,000 on the Irish lottery for around £1.

The odds of 14,000,000+ are way against you in the Lotto, with multiple bets at least the person selects the odds they want.

By the way, it is much, much easier winning £1M on the Scoop6 than the Lotto, and more fun as the stake lasts for 3 hours....rather than a few seconds on flying balls!!

[tipp]

Hello Win to Win
Exactly how many millionares has the scoop six created ?.
A colleague of mine Won £180,000-00 on the lottery
Best Reguards
Tipp

[Win2Win]

It's a question of odds not how many :doh

[bigcumba]

I'm sure relatively few folk win big on the scoop 6, but then again you have to look at it proportionately - compare the number of folk actually betting on the scoop 6 each week and contributing to the prize pool to the number doing the lottery. If millions were doing the scoop 6 each week you'd have many more big winners, and as Keith said the Tote don't cream off 70% of the money for themselves.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

(Tipp) Are you defending the lottery or criticising it?

You cannot seriously be comparing the lottery and Scoop6?? How about chucking in the premium bond winners instead? There have been more of those that the lottery and Scoop6 put together - and it doesn't cost any money at all (you effectively just lend the money).

Stop trying to glorify something that IS NOT and NEVER WILL BE a value for money gambling proposition (using ANY system!!).

[Win2Win]

..... (using ANY system!!).

Bugger....that's Project 4 out the window :laugh

[tipp]

Hello Win to Win.

How many Millionaires has the Scoop Six created ?. And if it ever does it
will be to a £2-00 Stakes. A collegue of mine won £180,000. on the lottery
for 5 numbers and the bonus ball.
If a Scoop Six had races with 20,18,16,16,14,12, Runners in them it would
take 15,482,880 bets to fully cover them at £2 per entry.

Stake £30,965,760-00.

Reguards
Tipp

[TheOldhamWhisper]

....If a Scoop Six had races with 20,18,16,16,14,12, Runners in them it would
take 15,482,880 bets to fully cover them at £2 per entry.

Stake £30,965,760-00.


But it doesn't - because punters wouldn't play at those odds!:ermmm

[mathare]

Hello Win to Win.

How many Millionaires has the Scoop Six created ?. And if it ever does it
will be to a £2-00 Stakes. A collegue of mine won £180,000. on the lottery
for 5 numbers and the bonus ball.
If a Scoop Six had races with 20,18,16,16,14,12, Runners in them it would
take 15,482,880 bets to fully cover them at £2 per entry.

Stake £30,965,760-00.At least we're comparing apples with apples here then :ermmm :rolleyes:

IF the Scoop Six races had fields as you state then you may well be right (I can't be :butthead: to calculate it). But what does that have to do with anything? It varies from week to week with the Scoop Six but full coverage with the lottery is just under £14m

Why are you so obsessed with the lottery here Tipp? What is the point you're trying to make?

[presto]

heres a comparrison.

how many millinaires has the lottery made, compared to good old fashioned 'hard work'.

there are 425,000 millinaires in the UK, the majority of them worked hard to get that cash.

[presto]

heres a good article about millionaires:

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/foolseyeview/2005/fev050421c.htm

[tipp]

Dear Oldham Whisper
I am not defending the lotto I think it is terrible value, but compared with
the bookmakers Irish Lottery bet I think it is amazing value.
The bookmakers bet is asking you to pick a staight three from six possibilities
out of 42 numbers, nothing for all the other combinations if you want to have
a 3 from 6 like the lottery it will cost you £20
A 4 from 6 will cost you another £15
A 5 from 6 £6
a 6 fold £1
The odds for a winning number on the bookies irish lottery is 5/1 so a £1
winning 6 fold pays a paltry £46,655 five numbers or less not a 1p

All my original post was, to find out if anybody on the forum knew anything
about a partial lottery wheel. Obviusly they do not. So thanks anyway.
Tipp

[mathare]

I am not defending the lotto I think it is terrible value, but compared with the bookmakers Irish Lottery bet I think it is amazing value.
Paying £10,000 for a Mars Bar is amazing value compared to paying £20,000 for one. But I could still go down the shop and buy one for less than 50p so I don't bang on about how great being able to buy a Mars Bar for ten grand is :rolleyes:

[Win2Win]

heres a comparrison.

how many millinaires has the lottery made, compared to good old fashioned 'hard work'.

there are 425,000 millinaires in the UK, the majority of them worked hard to get that cash.

:D :D :D :D :D

[Win2Win]

Hello Win to Win.

How many Millionaires has the Scoop Six created ?. And if it ever does it
will be to a £2-00 Stakes. A collegue of mine won £180,000. on the lottery
for 5 numbers and the bonus ball.
If a Scoop Six had races with 20,18,16,16,14,12, Runners in them it would
take 15,482,880 bets to fully cover them at £2 per entry.

Stake £30,965,760-00.

Reguards
Tipp

:splapme

14.5M/1 Lottery.....Back them all - lose 70%
15.4M/1 (your Scoop6 example)...Back them all - Lose 30%

[TheOldhamWhisper]

All my original post was, to find out if anybody on the forum knew anything about a partial lottery wheel.


Does anybody know where to find or how to create v=?,k=6,t=3,m=4.Partial Wheel for the Lotto, I would imagine there must be a formula or a software program. I have posted here as I think they use them for casino's also


This assumes that v, k, t and m would be terms commonly used in casinos or lotteries - in which case, I know nothing about either subject because they could stand for velocity, kinetic energy, table size and monetary value for all I know! :ooo

In all the reading I have done whilst trying to find something constructive to tell you in this thread, I have found no mention whatsoever of the aforementioned variables. If you could enlighten us as to what the letters represent, someone may be able to help.

(But I can tell you the answer - the goodies are exactly the same no matter how fancy the wrapping paper!):ermmm

[tipp]

Mathare
I wouldn't go as far as saying a Mars bar was amazing value at £10,000 or
£20,000 But if I had to pay those prices I would rather have won the
Lotto than the Bookies version first.

[tophatter]

Just spotted this thread - the reason I probably had not before is because the word lottery appears in it and my brain would have told me not to waste my time.

A lottery is a lottery and that is all there is to it. You just have to accept that and either do it like you a do a raffle or not do it at all. Applying gambling principles to it is a waste of time as it is not a gambling activity.

[tipp]

Win to Win
There are probably more millionaires who have been made by somebody elses
hard work.

Tipp

[mathare]

Mathare
I wouldn't go as far as saying a Mars bar was amazing value at £10,000 or
£20,000 But if I had to pay those prices I would rather have won the
Lotto than the Bookies version first.But the whole point that we are trying to get across to you is it doesn't matter which you would would rather have first because they are both incredibly bad bets

[presto]

i will GUARANTEE one sure fire way to make a million:

You can make a guaranteed million by saving in cash, but the light is at the end of a very long tunnel. Let's assume that you earn 5% in your tax-free cash mini-ISA and save the maximum £250 a month (£3,000 a year) into one. After a slog lasting 59 years, your nest egg is worth £1,034,462. So, start saving at sixteen and you'll be a millionaire when you reach 75

[TheOldhamWhisper]

...I would rather have won the
Lotto than the Bookies version first.

I probably didn't make it clear - it isn't a bookies 'version' - the bookie simply offers odds based on the chances of the balls being drawn. You are not actually participating in a lottery, just betting on the outcome of it. So, again we are not comparing like with like.

I also know several lottery millionaires - in fact I work for one! And on behalf of ALL the charities and good causes who benefit, I would like you to continue to support us through the lottery (although if you gave us the quid instead, we could claim an extra 25p back off the taxman) :)

[tipp]

Win to Win
The scoop stake should be £30,800,000 not 15.4M
Tipp

[tipp]

Sorry have to go for a little while, my mummy say's my tea is ready.
Tipp

[mathare]

The scoop stake should be £30,800,000 not 15.4MYou said they were the stakes at £2 per entry but the lottery is only £1 a go so Keith has put them on level terms, each to a £1 stake

[mathare]

Sorry have to go for a little while, my mummy say's my tea is ready.Let's hope she let's you stay up late tonight to watch the excitement of the millionaire maker on BBC1 eh :rolleyes:

[Win2Win]

Here is the difference in English;
Lottery - Select any 6 numbers! It's a lottery you could wait till you are 10,000 years old and never win.
Pro-Gambling - Select horses where the odds are in my favour long term, and make a steady income during my life.

[presto]

Here is the difference in English;
Lottery - Select any 6 numbers! It's a lottery you could wait till you are 10,000 years old and never win.
Pro-Gambling - Select horses where the odds are in my favour long term, and make a steady income during my life.

hard work - 1
pipe dream - 0

game, set, match.

[tipp]

Hello Oldham Whisper
I am aware that we have not been writing about the actual Irish Lottery.
The Codes in my first post are

v = How many of the lottery numbers you use in your perm,

k = how many lottery numbers in one entry.

t = the target number of winning Lottery numbers you seek.

m = the number of winning Lottery numbers you need in v to garantee t.

b = the minimum number of lines required to to achieve it.

This is called an abbreviated wheel because it does not contain all the possible combinations. While full wheels are fairly easy to compile abbreviated
wheels are quite difficult These are the variables used by mathamaticians and
people who compete against each other in competitions to compile the smallest wheel. Or least tickets required. I never explained this at the start
because I was hoping to find someone who recognised them

Be Lucky
Tipp

[Win2Win]

m = the number of winning Lottery numbers you need in v to garantee t.

Unless you have a crystal ball.....'m' doesn't exist :doh

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Try here (http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/pascal_combinations_permutations.htm) - I think there should be enough info to get you started on the right track :)

[tipp]

Hello Presto
I wonder what £1,034,462 will buy in 2065 and how much a Lottery ticket
will cost, and how much the first prize will be. Lets face it a lot of people get paid more than 1M now.











Of course I know the answers.
The lottery will cost half as much as the Scoop Six and the Jackpot wil be
fifteen time more than the Scoop Six.
Tipp

[tipp]

Thanks Oldham Whisper
Looks interesting I shall check it out.
Tipp.

[mathare]

I've got a good idea - starting with this Wednesday why don't you post your Lotto tips for us all :)

It's such a good bet and we all want to make money so why not share the love, as well as the knowledge you seem to have in abundance

[tipp]

Mathare
I have already revealed my lottery stategy earlier in the thread which you would have been aware of if you had read the thread instead of being
so intent on trying to be offensive, The only person who has said anything
constuctive in reply to my original query has been The Oldham Whisper, As you are the poker manager perhaps I have posted in the wrong thread, If so
perhaps you could move it to another,Then you could use the little button
that prevents you seeing my posts,and I will use the little button to stop seeing yours.Tipp

[tipp]

Mathare.
That bloke on your avitare don't happen to be a member does he ?,Tipp.

[Win2Win]

When you manage to win you're £M's on the lottery, I'll invite you to my private Island in the Philippines :)

[tipp]

Hello Win to Win.
I think I have done it tonight,When are we going. I will check my tickets.
Tipp

[eruptive plot]

Mathare
I have already revealed my lottery stategy earlier in the thread which you would have been aware of if you had read the thread instead of being
so intent on trying to be offensive, The only person who has said anything
constuctive in reply to my original query has been The Oldham Whisper, As you are the poker manager perhaps I have posted in the wrong thread, If so
perhaps you could move it to another,Then you could use the little button
that prevents you seeing my posts,and I will use the little button to stop seeing yours.Tipp
you are just not being logical.look at the big picture.
camelot take out40-50% out of the pool.
the bookies tke out10-25%.
ask youself a

very simple question,wher does the value lie?
i'm sure that 99.9 percent of the members on this site will agree with me that you will get more back per pound with the bookies than camelot

[presto]

have you thaught about the euro-millions lottery?
the jackpot for that is far better at around £15million


it is however far worse value (and that's saying something) than the national lottery with the jackpot 75mill/1

[mathare]

Mathare
I have already revealed my lottery stategy earlier in the thread which you would have been aware of if you had read the thread instead of being
so intent on trying to be offensive, The only person who has said anything
constuctive in reply to my original query has been The Oldham WhisperOK, then answer me this:

Why are you persisting with the lottery strategy when it is a bad bet due to the odds and the operator's takeout compared to the odds available from the bookmakers and exchanges on sporting events?

Are you after a single big win or interested in making smaller, regular profits?

[presto]

if you are just after the big win then go for premium bond's - there terrible value for a basic rate taxpayer, but you could win a big prize - there are 2X £1mill payouts a month along with quite a few other biggies.

[tipp]

Presto
Whatever has given you the idea i'm after a big win,that's not what this post has been about at all. My stategy is designed to capture 3 or 4 numbers in a wheel of 8 numbers which pays multiple 3 and 4 number wins paying up to a couple of grand. Of course I might get lucky and get more. Then again I might not. Tipp.

[eruptive plot]

but why bet 49 numbers when you can get more with 42 numbers?

[mathare]

Whatever has given you the idea i'm after a big win,To me that would be your obsession throughout this thread on which type of bet has made the most millionaires

[tipp]

Disruptive Plot
You are showing your utter ignorace of the arguments you have quoted the
bookies takeout when it is not EVEN A POOL !.
Tipp.

[eruptive plot]

ever hear'd of something called percentage my friend?
we are all trying to help one another on this site!!!

[tipp]

Disruptive Plot
Feel free to enlighten me,Explain how percentage = takeout.
Tipp.

[tophatter]

I can offer constructive advice too Tipp and that is simply any bet that involves more than one result to ensure a winning return has to be considered a bit of (money losing) fun. If I was able to garantee I would live to an age of maybe 30,000 years I might try and do the lottery as a long term investment as I would probably be able to buy enough tickets in my lifetime to make it a small risk bet the like of which I do on a daily basis without the age problem.

Once you get into accumulators you are ramping odds up alarmingly and when you add the words random and lottery its just not worth it. You are better off spending the time spent trying to find the secret code to change a lottery into a gamble by taking a more likely longshot punt than those games give you and getting on your knees and praying to the lord that you will be one of the lucky ones chosen at random. It probably wont work but the odds wont be any greater than they are of you making money from a lottery by trying to defy the law of randomness and lotteries.

Now that is constructive!

[eruptive plot]

if camelot take out 50% out of £100 you get £50
if the enemy take out 20% you get £80:splapme

[bigcumba]

Disruptive Plot
You are showing your utter ignorace of the arguments you have quoted the
bookies takeout when it is not EVEN A POOL !.
Tipp.

I have a feeling you are spoiling for an argument, especially as you continue to call Eruptive Plot by the wrong name, and also by your attitiude to some other posts. As has been said already, we are all on here to try and help others... suggesting someone is 'utterly ignorant' is certainly not being helpful in any way whatsoever.

[tophatter]

Tipp,

were you the fella who posted a thread a couple of years ago trying to work out a way of making a garanteed weekly profit?

If you are not then forgive me but it was the same sort of toytown dream. The easiest way to make money from gambling is in fact very difficult but possible. You have to use maths, statistics and history and knowledge to give you an ever so slight edge. Once you have got that you need to repeat it many thousands of times over a long period of time and you start to make money.

Any other money derived from gambling without the use of those attributes is down to luck and the laws of gambling dictate that over time that will be taken from you with interest. There is no such thing as an unlucky or lucky gambler, there is such a thing as a lucky person though and those are the only ones who can make money out of things such as the lottery. The trouble is they dont know they are lucky or not until they have won money from it and will continue to throw money away in the hope they are indeed lucky. The huge prize on offer is not a gift from a genorous being it is a ruthless and effective hook. The bigger the prize the less genorous the prize giver!

[mathare]

Feel free to enlighten me,Explain how percentage = takeout.Allow me, if you don't mind...

Bookies make a market up roughly based on what they rate the percentage chances of each runner winning and then tweak these odds to reflect what the bookie thinks will reflect public opinion. The punters them come along and place their bets and the bookmaker shifts his odds about to attract more money away from runners that are seeing too much action and generally balance his book.

But his odds have a built-in profit margin called an overround. If you were to convert his odds to percentage chance of winning you would see that the book summed to 110% or so. This is odd, you think, because it can only be 100% chance of one of the runners winning. The extra 10% is the bookies overround and that's what feeds his kids and keeps his Rolls Royce on the road.

So each and every price the bookmaker puts up has an implicit takeout from it.

Suppose you have a fair coin and ask a bookmaker for a quote on the next flip coming down heads. You know was well as he does that this is a 50% chance so the bookie should offer you evens on your bet. But he'll probably offer you 4/5. So in ten flips you might get 5 heads and 5 tails. You lose 5 times your stake on the tails in win 4 times your stake on the heads. So in those 10 flips you have lost one times your stake. That's the bookies takeout and it exists in every market.

It's not equally balanced across all prices in most markets though. A 10% overround in a 10 runner race will not be equally spread 1% across each price. Some prices will actually be more generous than they ought to be and some downright meaner. By knowing which is which you can make value bets and make a profit from the bookmaker despite his takeout. This is what Keith was saying earlier about pro gamblers betting when things are in their favour. With the lottery it is NEVER in your favour due to the huge takeout by the operators and because each ball has an equal chance of being drawn.

[wb]

Tipp,

I hope you are not from Tipperary in Ireland, because if so, you are making a show of us. Any gambling on the lotto will not pay unless you get lucky. The only way to make any money in this game (gambling) is long-term hard work and perserverence.
Don't get me wrong, I do the (Irish) lotto the very odd time, because it is my only chance at being a millionaire - but I am sensible enough to realise the odds are stacked against me.

A set of balls will never make money (unless it's Storm Cat)

Regards,

Wayne.

[tipp]

It is quite difficult to reply to your posts individually so If this continues I
shall just reply in general.
TH no I wasn't

Bookies do not take out 20% they get their profit from something they call the over round Kieth may well know how much this is I don't ,But my old mate John McCririck woul go mad if he thought it was 20%

[mathare]

Bookies do not take out 20% they get their profit from something they call the over round Kieth may well know how much this is I don't ,But my old mate John McCririck woul go mad if he thought it was 20%20% is not unusual. It is often 10-15% and in big handicaps like the Grand National it can be 60%+. But on average it's around 10-15% I would say

[tipp]

Sorry mathare your post was not there when I started writing my last one I have touched one of your subjects.

[mathare]

I have touched one of your subjects.:yikes: Never 'eard 'em called that before :icon_tong

[tipp]

Is best percentage on Betfair the Betfair overround

[tipp]

That look a lot like Vegyjones thinghy,Are you related

[mathare]

Is best percentage on Betfair the Betfair overroundIf I knew what you meant by this I'd answer it.

I'll have a guess and suggest that what you are asking is: "is the number above the odds for the runners in Betfair the Betfair market % and thus equivalent to the bookies overround?". In which case the answer is yes and this is rarely more than 1% or so just before the off of a horse race

[Win2Win]

Why not start with £1....and keep putting it on Evens chances....you'll get to £1M before you win the lottery :)

[vegyjones]

Shouldn't this thread be stamped with an IDIOT alert? :doh

[Win2Win]

Shouldn't this thread be stamped with an IDIOT alert? :doh
Now you're here....................YES :D

[tipp]

Hello Win to Win,
Before I could afford writing paper we ( my mates and I ) used to get an
offcut of pine floorboard and a pencil and see how far we could get starting
with a halfpenny in old money (£ s d ) and see how many times we could write down the result of doubling it.
1/2 d
1 d
2 d
4 d
8 d
1 s 4 p
2 s 8 p
5 s 4 d
10 s 8 d
£1. 1s 4 d
£2. 2s 8 d

see how many times you can continue doubling. Playing evens.

Have fun .Tipp

[Win2Win]

Here are next weeks winning lottery numbers
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
:D

[tipp]

Yep they're all in there somewhere, and possibly they will make another
couple of millionaires like yesterday, That makes 425,002 millionaires.
I bet they regret not having done the bookmakers IRISH Lottery.
If they had asked for advice here they might not have made that mistake.
Tipp

[mathare]

Still not obsessed with a big win then :rolleyes:

[tipp]

Sorry Mathare I only have two obsessions in life, Race Horses and Racing Motorcycles.
But a little occassional help from gallant Camelot does not go amiss.
Tipp

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Yep they're all in there somewhere, and possibly they will make another
couple of millionaires like yesterday, That makes 425,002 millionaires.
I bet they regret not having done the bookmakers IRISH Lottery.
If they had asked for advice here they might not have made that mistake.
Tipp

I don't normally give out negative rep, but I think you've earned it. ;fire

[Win2Win]

If anyone enjoy's being taxed 70%, more power to them! :laugh

[bigcumba]

If they had asked for advice here they might not have made that mistake.
Tipp

ditto what Oldham just posted.

[mathare]

Sorry Mathare I only have two obsessions in life, Race Horses and Racing Motorcycles.
But a little occassional help from gallant Camelot does not go amiss.
TippSo who gives a flying ::hump how many millionaires any type of gambling makes each week? Not me, that's for sure.

[tipp]

Always took the view the more tax you pay the better you're doing. I am sure you must find this don't you .
Tipp

[mathare]

Always took the view the more tax you pay the better you're doing. I am sure you must find this don't you .
TippNope, when I am a pro gambler paying zero tax I'll be at my happiest thank you very much

[tipp]

Surely the govenment didn't create the Lottery just to give us something
else to bet on, it was to raise funds for what they deem good causes,
The Oldham Whisper has said the people he works for have been benefitiary's and as it is a pool competition there seems to be plenty left after deductions to provide some pretty good payouts. I don't begrudge the 50% that goes to these
causes, our towns got a great community building with lottery money help.
This country would be a poorer place without it, If anybody doesn't like it
it's not compulsary to take part. But you are still free to enjoy the benefits
it has funded,
Tipp

[mathare]

Mathare has said the people he works for have been benefitiary'sI work for a UK defence company - I doubt we've benefitted greatly from Camelot. After all, scratchcards to fund weapons aren't big sellers at the minute :splapme

[tipp]

Oop's should have been The Oldham Whisper please accept my sincere appology.
Now I see why you are so war like, I will make allowance,
Tipp

[Win2Win]

Surely the govenment didn't create the Lottery just to give us something
else to bet on, it was to raise funds for what they deem good causes,


Don't be so naive....they knew how much other goverments where getting from it. Another back door way of taxing the poor.