'andycaps

[Godspot]

2.25 Ayr (0-123) 25f st

-7 STRONG RESOLVE (29) Noted, Prev, fresh, CD, BF, can be rated higher on previous form but
9 SEE YOU THERE (26) Noted, nr fresh, D
28 HUGO DE GREZ(FR) (16) Noted, fit & CD, figure could be double if based on previous form which would put him well clear & a bit of a stand out.
A single win bet is suggested.

[Godspot]

One is sub-standard:

1.50 Sedgefield Class 3 (0-120) 21f hvy

(-20) Fourty Acers, 7 ticks, Having clocked a 98 speed figure I can estimate his rating at about [123], here he is off’ve 120 OR, that’s about right & you couldn’t say for sure he is well in.
(+15) Topinambour, 8 ticks, must have more chance of toppling the Pipe horse than King Of The Arctic later.

& one contains a mare that should be rated in the low 140's...

2.50 Sedgefield Class 3 (0-130) 16.5f hvy

(-2) Bongo Fury, 6 ticks, Posted, fit, personal best last time, In receipt of 7lb when beating a [100,OR] by 7l’s, albeit comfortably: it may be stable form & McCoy’s strength in a finish that decides this. If she does win the second last time, Hashid is more well h’capped than I thought. At first glance I thought she hadn’t got in lightly but the fact that Master Albert was rated [125, OR] in 3rd livens it up a bit. According to Raceform’s SS, Bongo Fury clocked a Class A time last week. This is the class factor; King Of The Arctic may look interesting and in any other race he would be a good thing in a normal Class C but when there is something as unexposed as Bongo Fury’s h’cap mark you may begin to wonder. He was running round with 0-106 – 115’s when he achieved his best, this is a rise in class. Somehow I feel Bongo Fury is above being well h’capped, this is her h’cap debut and on last week’s figures is entitled to a rating much higher – she could be just passing through the handicap sphere.

(+23) King Of The Arctic, 10 ticks, Noted, fit, personal best last time, the only negative being the stable’s form but this was a fair personal best achieved only 20 days ago but then they had a winner yesterday.

Interesting scenario on the figures today, Fourty Acers has to overcome a gap much wider than Bongo Fury and does not have a figure that suggests he can, the opposite can be said for Bongo. She is the safest bet today especially if Fourty Acers wins...

The big question for me though, is have I RULED myself out of any qualifiers?

[mathare]

The big question for me though, is have I RULED myself out of any qualifiers?By definition you can't have. If you have defined a strict set of system rules they act as filters on a racecard and the selections just drop out naturally. You don't need to do anything.

[Godspot]

So far two bets down, this can't go on, can it?

1.25 Ascot (0-112) 17f g c

13 13 CHARLTON KINGS(IRE)

A chance to redeem himself, has less questions to answer than most.

3.10 Ascot (0-140) 17f g c

13 10 BAMBI DE L'ORME(FR)
15 5 JERICHO III(FR)
29 25 COSSACK DANCER(IRE)
46 39 MAMBO DES MOTTES(FR)

Mambo has to be the h’cap snip of the day.

Two more bets that you're probably better off laying, time will tell...

As part of an on-going experiment I'm adding some AW selections below:


3 Mighty Moon 3.20 Wolves (0-105) 12f
7 Scottish River 3.55 Wolves (0-65) 9.5f
4 Dig Deep 5.5 Kemp(aw) (0-85) 7f

If one of them wins I may start bringing in the AW but at present I'm just keeping a record of how would be selections do.

[Godspot]

So where are we? £4 down & £4.30 back, not quite 10% ROI.
I did think yesterday that Charlton King's was a much safer bet, a lot less opposition & almost twice the price.
Typical! That's the first time (out of three) I've made some AW selections & not had a winner. Anyway, Saturday......

1.40 Ascot Class 3 19.5f gd hn

28 -3 -3 7 g TIPPERARY ALL STAR(FR)
31 2 7 8 g OVERSTRAND(IRE)
37 11 10 6 g ACAMBO, fresh & of the classier types I prefer this one but…
34 13 2 6 g VERASI
35 16 1 6 g TARLAC(GER), CD, fresh, beat 6 horses with no speed figure last time & doesn’t warrant being fav in my book.
34 14 12 8 g PIRATE FLAGSHIP, nr fresh
37 32 23 5 g KINGS QUAY, BF, has been a lot of support for this one but 4yo’s don’t do too well in this race.
45 38 32 7 g PILCA(FR), bang in form & I know the odds are shortening every time I look at them. He’s ahead on the figures, even for accounting that he’s out of the h’cap proper. His two recent wins were on ‘gd ground & the way he hit the front two out over a furlong further last week suggests he could be thereabouts again. 6yo’s don’t have a good record either but I’m proposing an EW bet at the best price you can get. What I'll do here is split my stake, say it's a £1, I'll have 20p win Acambo & 40p EW Pilca.

3.25 Newc (0-130) 20f st c

41 21 13 8 g SILVER SEDGE(IRE), CD, fit, improver
39 28 20 8 g LORD RODNEY(IRE), D, fresh, improver
44 20 20 8 g GREAT AS GOLD, CD, fit

I thought I saw a decent bet here until I noticed Great As Gold who clocked a figure some time ago. He is with the same trainer as that Transit who beat Bongo Fury on Tuesday and has a similar form profile. Could be a real live wire and at current odds of 9/1 forecast I suggest we split our stake, 2/3rd’ on Lord Rodney, whose form got a boost by the 3rd last Saturday & a 1/3rd on this Great As Gold. Call it 70p & 30, easier on the maths.

I started noting horses who’s Split Second rating was above their OR, I have a little list of what I term as Bubbling Under my main Notebook. So far it has resulted in Brown Fox, 4th, Zimbabwe, 1st 2/1f, Our Samson, 2nd evs fav & NOW!

1.20 Newc, 16f st (0-98) hh

17 14 That’s Racing, no others even nearly qualify. If you use Raceform’s Split Second the figures are even higher, (+24). I wasn't going to include this as a main selection but after analysing all the other h'caps today, this doesn't look too bad, it's 5/s fc & we'll have a straight win bet here.

So that's 3 races covered, 3 units between 5 horses mentioned. Now for the non-h'caps....:giggle

[Godspot]

All selections placed Saturday. £3.35 returns on outlay of £3 (that's SP, could have had 10's about Acambo & a possible 25/s Pilca at early prices) bringing the grand totals to £7 down & £7.65 back, almost a 10% ROI.

Before I forget, I must log this for future reference. Corals & Pipe, I remember that from the past. While all else had Acambo had 9/10/ & 11/s - this morning, Corals were going 15/2 about Acambo.

[Godspot]

I can't believe now I took on that Another Promise on Saturday, once I got the Daily Mirror I realised I may have got that race wrong.
Two bets today, a Noted horse worth opposing & a Bubbling Under, worth going with.

2.45 Taunton 23.5f gs (0-120) c

+16 +15 ABRAGANTE, Noted, is running off a mark 11lb higher than when winning & notching his best speed figure over ½ mile shorter than today’s trip at Haydock in early November. Is going to be a short price today on the back of his hurdle win at Exeter & could be worth taking on, especially with something like….
+29 +26 YANN’S, Prev, fresh, CD, is on a mark 6lb lower than his last winning one, which just so happens to have been here over CD with today’s jockey on board. In fact he’s won twice over this CD with today’s pilot & both times after a layoff.

3.15 Taunton 19f gs (0-110) cj’s c

+31 +20 BELUGA, doubts about ground & course & no McCoy this time.
+34 +27 SITTING DUCK, CD, BF, less question marks & every chance today of reversing placings with above.

No stake splitting today, we'll just have two single unit win bets.

[Godspot]

3.00 Ayr 16f hvy (0-110) ch

+24 +32 FEARLESS FOURSOME, fit, (ex7), 7/4f fc, a Bubbling Under selection using Raceform’s SS, has already won since being noted & the opposition here doesn’t look up to much - not one has a win to it's name in their last 6 outings. Be lucky to get 2/1

[bigcumba]

Fancy this one as well today... most picked in all my systems, as was Abragante yesterday. :)

[Godspot]

as was Abragante yesterday. It may have been greed/value but I went with the fc 15/2 about Yann's but then Abragante was eliminated on grounds of distance, close though in the end.

Three more bets since last I looked, that's £10 down & total returns after yesterday are £10.28. Almost a whopping 3% ROI!

A right mixed bag for today....

2.20 16f gd Mussel (0-120)h

+12 +11 Saif Sareea, Prev, nr fresh, CD, 11 ticks, 8 tips, 11/4f fc
+23 (+32) Transit, Noted fr Chase sf, fit, 9 ticks, 2 tips, 7/2 2f fc
+25 +25 Sir Night, almost Bubbling Under, fit, 8 ticks, 2 tips, 11/2 3f fc

I don't like races like this, where you have someone switching from one code to another but Transit clocked a fair figure (in brackets) which must give him a chance. At these odds there should be a way of splitting the pound stake between them & as long as one of them wins, we should still profit from the race, I'm sure they have the race between them.

2.50 20f gd Mussel (0-102) c

+36 + 6 (+46) Chevalier Errant (7ex), CD, fit, 8 ticks, 11 tips, 7/4 clr f fc. Was 6l’s clear 6 out when making all, here over three miles last Sunday, must be a fair chance of a repeat. This is a bit like yesterday - you'll be lucky to get 7/4, if odds on, no bet.

3.15 Kempton 5f (0-58)

+20 +15 Succeed, 10 ticks, fit, 3 tips, 3/1 2f fc
+22 +28 Spirit Of Coniston, 9 ticks, CD, fit, 1 tip (Topspeed), 33/1 fc. Has (Postdata) ticks across the board & only one has more, above, comes out top on my figures & at fc odds this looks interesting & I'll split the pound 50p EW here.

[Godspot]

Sorry, it's a bit late but I have to have Anshabil, 1pm Hereford as a selection.

[danbo1000]

Was the race delayed or something? you seem to have posted that selection half an hour after the horse had already won...:doh

[vegyjones]

When it says he posted 1 hour ago Dan, it encompasses the whole hour. I can confirm that it was posted just in time for the 1 o'clock!

[danbo1000]

:yikes:
Nice little tip then

[vegyjones]

I donno, I like my tps to win by 20 lengths + , so it'as a big thumbs down from me! :laugh

[mathare]

When it says he posted 1 hour ago Dan, it encompasses the whole hour. I can confirm that it was posted just in time for the 1 o'clock!It was in fact posted at 12.44pm

[danbo1000]

I donno, I like my tps to win by 20 lengths + , so it'as a big thumbs down from me! :laugh

You would love my tips then, they often do win by 20+, shame they are laying tips though...:(

[Godspot]

Today's advice (& hopefully for the duration of the challenge) will be available in much better time, I hope.
Profit Seeker & myself have been holding a bit of a Stewards Enquiry which has resulted in a challenge to achieve 200pts profit by the end of Gold Cup day 2007. From now onwards we have a new stake plan. Where before I was splitting a one unit between however many horses i fancied in a race, take last weeks Ladbroke Hurdle; the profit would have been a lot more if i had put a whole unit on Acambo & split another whole unit EW on Pilca. From now on each horse selected has it's own unit to waste/invest.

Since I last totted up I've had 3 more bets, so £13 down to return £15.78 after yesterday. What with the challenge these figures can be reset to £00.00, until about 12.55pm....

1.00 Font 22f gd/st (0-104) cj c

+18 +15 +6 He’s The Gaffer, Noted, C, fresh3/1f fc
+29 +27 +17 Glen Thyne, BU, BF, fresh, 4/1 fc

I have to give this twice BF one more shout off this weight with these figures. When you think the third column is not weight adjusted, Glen Thyne’s would be a lot higher if they were. At FC odds he looks the value.

2.10 Here 19f st (0-144) c

+6 –10 Hoo La Baloo, Noted, D, fit, 9/2 fc
+8 +9 Kalca Mome, Noted, CD, fit, 5/2f fc
+20 –3 Iron Man, Noted, fit, 11/2 fc
+32 +22 Kosmos Bleu, Prev, fresh, 8/1 fc

If he should drift out to 12/s, EW, if not, WIN will do nicely.

2.45 Here 26f st (0-95) h

+9 –9 +18 Parkinson, BU, fit, 7/4f fc
+14 +3 +19 Alderbrook Girl, BU, D, fresh, 6/1 fc. Chance could be enhanced if you were to weight adjust the third column. If I can get 2/1 on Parkinson, I'll have a pound on each, if not just a pound on Alderbrook Girl.

3.40 Font 20f gd/st (0-140) h

+18 +19 –19 Border Castle, Noted, fit , 5/2 2f fc
+27 +23 –7 Nation State, Noted, fit & was a fancy for last week’s big h’cap but expected to improve for today’s trip & gets the nod here. 9/4f fc, if I can't get 2/1, NO BET!

A possible 5 bets today then with a couple of provisio's. :wink

[sparkyminer]

Profit Seeker & myself have been holding a bit of a Stewards Enquiry

Hmmmmmmmm.....Conversations you're glad you missed out on.:rolleyes: :yikes: :D

[bigcumba]

If he should drift out to 12/s, EW, if not, WIN will do nicely.


Anyone remember reading that bit in the system rules? Thought not....



If I can get 2/1 on Parkinson, I'll have a pound on each, if not just a pound on Alderbrook Girl.



That bit? Nope?



if I can't get 2/1, NO BET!

A possible 5 bets today then with a couple of provisio's. :wink

[/quote]

How the hell can this be a system if you can only bet depending on YOUR personal opinion of the horse, or of value. There are a lot of members who can't get their bets on during the day so have to either take the price on offer on Betfair early, or back at SP via the bookies... Systems allow them to back no matter the price, so there's no need to be adjusting the rules to suit on a race by race basis. Like I said on your rules thread, this is not a system, and to be honest I think I'll be moving this to the fun bets area after a bit of further discussion with the rest of the mods.

[Godspot]

I happen to agree, seeing as I'm using two sets of figures now, I only started with one. The race above, He's The Gaffer vs. Glen Thyne was a good example, a clash of opinion on the figures.

I happen to agree, as I seem to be conducting an experiment & lumbering myself with 'mission impossible,' and to be honest, this is far wide of the mark of what I actually set out to do.

However, before I go in search of another pot of midnight oil....

3.15 Sedge

(+6) Hello It’s Me, BU, 5/2f fc
(+27) Alfadora, BU, 10/s fc. This is one of the best BU's I have listed so far and I'm making it my bet of the day.

Whatever happens today though, i think i will have to re-address the situation in maybe the Help/Advice with systems thread.

[Godspot]

First of all, this is not a suggested bet, it is just here to help me decide on the rules. It's an interesting race, nevertheless.

There are two horses in this race (emboldened), which have gone in my Notebook this season for running Topspeed figures above their official h’cap rating. I have included other runners who have previously achieved a similar feat just to compare what they are up against. The figure columns on the left show how much their weight adjusted RPR & TS figures are above their official rating. For those who don’t like weight adjusted figures – there is a figure in brackets which shows how much higher their TS figure is ahead of their official h’cap rating. Either way you look at it – in this particular race, She’s Supersonic comes out clearly ahead.

3.10 Leop 16f hvy (0-130) h

+16 +10 Power Elite, 26 dys, CD, Best TS, 133, OR 130 (+3). Figures achieved on ground better than this.
+27 +26 The Spoonplayer, 46 dys, Best TS, 125, OR 118 (+7). Figures achieved on distance further than this, though does have Ruby on board.
+35 +34 First Row, 18 dys, Best TS, 123, OR 113 (+10). Figures achieved in non-h’caps, this could help define a RULE.
+28 +32 Monjoyau, 99+ days, Best TS ©, 119, OR 112 (+7). Has run well fresh before but figures achieved on better ground.
+29 +28 Woodhouse, 26 days, Best TS 115, OR 112 (+3). Figures achieved over longer trips.
+35 +36 Maralan, 2 days, Best TS 119, OR 110 (+9). Figure achieved in non-h’cap.
+43 +34 Ouste, 26 days, Best TS 111, OR 107 (+4). Figure achieved in non-h’cap on better ground.
+48 +48 She’s Supersonic, 20 days, Best TS 123, OR 106 (+17). Figure achieved was a Personal Best on Most Recent run & shows Rapid Improvement on any previous & over a similar distance & on similar going to today’s. I don’t think that the 7/2 forecast represents value, considering neither jockey or trainer has had a winner in the last 14 days but does the fact that her system qualifying run being only 20 days ago negate this rule? Another annoying thing here is that Ruby Walsh rode her last time & now he’s on The Spoonplayer, it might just be he can’t make the weight.

If there is a bit of pace to this race I have no doubt it will throw another couple of qualifiers but the main thing today is that I want to know if it matters that the trainer has not had a winner in the last couple of weeks.

[Godspot]

First Row, 18 dys, Best TS, 123, OR 113 (+10). Figures achieved in non-h’caps, this could help define a RULE.

Or could just be another 'spanner' in the works! After just discarding about 30 of what i thought were qualifiers that had achieved their figures in non-h'cap company and their being no winners between them - this thing goes & wins today. His (+10) was Next Best & he does belong to that super generation of 4yo's that 'mucker Mordin keeps banging on about. Still, that 10/1 doesn't negate the fact that non-h'cap form is non-profitable in h'caps.

Shame about She's Supersonic, we might have to wait until she's fresh again or the stable are in better form - it looks like we might want to see a stable win within the last fortnight as a fixed rule. A shame because from the list below, she is top rated and the h'capper has given her a chance recently.

Now, what we have here is a list of all qualifiers (what I now call SPART)from the last two months. Horses for whom, after having had their weight re-assessed by the official h'capper, their Topspeed figure still exceeds their OR by 4lb or more.

Irish horses are denoted with an * & we'll have to check their OR on the day they run because I have no access to their official Weight Watcher.

The figure top right of a name in blue is the number of speed points that their figure is above the horses OR. It seems to me that what we want is 5 & above, I can see one 4 (Sunisa) worth having but the others look to have been disappointing, so far. From results so far the higher this figure, the more chance of winning.

If a horses name is blue it means it has won since being noted & we'll have to wait for a response from the official h'capper to see if our horse has re-qualified, Abragante would be a good example of one that hasn't, Stormy Beach, one that has.

1971 Hayd (0-116) 20f gd c 9
6 g ABRAGANTE(IRE) 125 124 116
styd on t' ld fnl f 1/8
Has won a hurdle & a chase since noting but has been upped 9lb for his trip to Taunton which leaves his rating on a par with his speed figure, so is no good to us for the time being.

2846 Ascot (0-139) 16f gd h 5
6 g ACAMBO 151 152 146
hdwy t ld 3 out, drvn out 1/20 Noted, sf fresh & SPART

1926 Warw (0-99) 16f gd c 5 5
7 g ALAM(USA) 12 106 106 101
nt rch wnr

2513 Folk (0-94) 21f gsg cn 13 13
8 g ANSHABIL(IRE) 103 90
wnt 2nd ag' 2 out, kpt on 2/12 Improving dodgy jumper who kpt on here, 3m? Noted here, SPART, BU & had a Noted 11l's back in 3rd. Came in for us the other day, didn't win by wide margin so may not go up much. Find out next week.

2525 Ayr (0-115) 16f shy c 4
9 g ARMAGUEDON(FR) 132 128
led 5th, made rest, clr 13l's 1/7 Noted, sf fresh & ran well above rating but upped 13lb, top weight here. Still SPART.

2460 Newb (0-142) 17f st c 4
8 h BAMBI DE L'ORME(FR) 140 136
kpt on wl, nt pace of wnr 2/10 One of those disappointing 4's

1976 Towc (0-99) 22f gsg c 4
11 g BAY ISLAND(IRE) 110 106
styd on wl 1/9 Sp Fig, fresh

2353 Towc (0-88) 16.5f sgs c 8
7 g BILLY BRAY 19 108 100
hdwy 5th, ld flt, clr 1/10 Has disappointed over a longer trip but gave us Anshabil & Gerrard.

2916 Exeter (0-126) 19.5f gs c
9 g BISHOP'S BRIDGE(IRE) 130 125 5
presd wnr from 4 out, no xtr cl home 2/8 Noted, sf fresh & SPART

2710 Chelt (0-146) 16.5f st c 5
9 g BOHEMIAN SPIRIT 132 127
hdd & out pcd fnl 100yrds 2/10 Posted, sf fresh, SPART & stys further than 2m.

2699 Chelt (0-135) 17f hvy h 7
6 g BORDER CASTLE 137 130
sl ld appr last & r o strly 1/16 Posted, sf fresh & SPART, last 3 wins all been on 'gd/st or 'st'er. RPT, fresh.

2092 Bangor (0-102) 17.5f gs cn 11
8 g BRAVE VILLA(FR) 102 91
hdd fnl 100yrds 2/9 Me
2401 Chep (0-98) 16.5f hvy cn 6
8 g BRAVE VILLA(FR) 108 102
made all, hld on all out 1/6 The original Bubbling Under, having ran against Nenuphar Collonges who clocked a 110+ TS. Has scored twice since noted but disappointed last time when stepped up in trip.

* 2503 Navan (0-147) 24f st c 9
8 g CANE BRAKE(IRE) 27 138 129
Eased aftr last, 4l's 1/16

2115 Ludlow (0-105) 16f gfg c 5
9 g CHARLTON KINGS(IRE) 113 108
kpt on r-in, flttrd? 1/9 Took a couple of runs to become a stand out in a weak race, has been bumped up to (-4) & looks out of it for the time being.

2740 Mussel (0-115) 16f gd h 4
6 g CLASSIC CROCO(GER) 119 115
ev ch, one pce r-in 3/17 Noted, sf fresh

* 2007 Down R (0-114) 16f gss c 5
11 g CLOCHMHAOIL CASTLEIRE) 119 114
hdd cl h, no xtr 2/14 Sp Fig, fresh

2102 Ling (0-120) 16f gd c 4
9 g COSSACK DANCER(IRE) 122 118
kpt on, not pce o'1st 2/6

2916 Exeter (0-126) 19.5f gs c
6 g COUSIN NICKY 127 122 5
led, hdd 4 out, kpt on 3/8 Noted, sf fit & SPART

2669 Hunt (0-123) 16.5f st h 8
5 g DARAYBAD(FR) 115 107
bf, no ch with winner 2/13 Posted, sf fresh, bf but SPART.

2483 Font (0-126) 26.5f gs c 5
10 g DEFERLANT(FR) 130 125
hdwy, chalg on bit, 7 1/8 Mord

2659 Leic (0-105) 16f gs cn 12
7 g DIGITAL FORTRESS(IRE) 109 97
ralled t ld flt, hdd fnl 50yrds 2/5 Posted, sf fresh, trnr's chase prospects improving & this one looks 'well in.' Ran over 3m & disappointed the other day

* 2956 Navan (0-110) 20f hvy h
8 g DOSCO(IRE) 111 84 27
led 4 out, clr 2 out, Not Extended 1/14 Noted, sf fresh & still SPART if upped a stone

2513 Folk (0-94) 21f gsg cn 7
9 m GERRARD(IRE) 93 86
made all, b1, sharp trk 1/12 Bl 1stx here, trk suited, x of the meet. Bt noted, Bill Bray 18l's. Fresh. Spart & 2nd & 4th have gone in recently.

2493 Newb (0-117) 24f hvy cn 6
7 g HELTORNIC(IRE) 39 122 116
wth ldr 3 out, one pce 3/8
2792 Newb (0-125) 24f st cn 9 7
7 g HELTORNIC(IRE) 17 123 125 116
chsd wnr fr 1st & styd on wl for 2nd 2/7 Noted, sf fit & SPART

2483 Font (0-126) 26.5f gs c 10
7 g HE'S THE GAFFER(IRE) 111 107 101
btn whn hmprd 2 out 2/7 Won t'other day & I'm still waiting on Weight Watcher, next week but it looks like he hasn't.

2493 Newb (0-117) 24f hvy cn 5
8 g IRISH RAPTURE(IRE) 115 110
hdd r-in, no xtr 2/10 Not quite do enough to re-qualify & is now only (+3), though course experience should help him against Whereareyounow at Newbury. Ran a fair race & may even have re-qualified.

2401 Chep (0-98) 16.5f hvy c 7
7 m ISLAND OF MEMORIES 95 88
styd on, no imprsn 2/6 Me - this is how Brave Villa began, has disappointed but run may have come too soon.

2145 Newc (0-115) 16.5f gd c 4
10 g JEFERTITI(FR) 111 107
made mst, gamely 1/5

2462 Newb (0-153) 26.5f st c 6
10 g JUVEIGNEUR(FR) 153 147
styd on wel fr clr 2nd. 2/16 Fair run in Welsh National & from the look of Halcon's TS, this horse has qualified again.

2710 Chelt (0-146) 16.5f st c 4
9 g KALCA MOME(FR) 145 141
hdwy 8th, styd on wl fr 3 out, ld fn 1/10 Noted, sf fit. 2m testing grnd & likes an uphill finish. Found an opportunity but now back to (+4)

* 2503 Navan (0-147) 24f st c 6
9 g KERRYHEAD WINDFARM 132 126
8th 4 out, kpt on u p 2/16 Sp Fig, fresh

2415 Weth (0-115) 16f st c 4
9 g KING OF THE ARCTIC(IRE) 117 113
wnt 3rd 3 out, same pce 3/8 Sp Fig, fresh

2323 Hayd (0-130) 16f gs c 7
8 g LAUNDE(IRE) 140 133
made all, kpt'n gam 1/6 3rd's done the form no harm!

2916 Exeter (0-108) 23.5f gs c
9 g LIKE A BEE(IRE) 115 108 7
ev ch 2 out, no xtr 3/8 Noted, sf fresh & SPART

2323 Hayd (0-130) 16f gs c 9
8 g LORD RODNEY(IRE) 124 115
ralled t' fr 2nd r-in 2/6 Sp Fig, fresh & 3rd's done the form no harm!

2809 Catt (0-108) 16f gs c 7
8 g LOULOU NIVERNAIS(FR) 101 94
ev ch 4 out, one pace aftr 2/6 Noted, sf fresh & SPART, the orig BU! Has already disap, bounced?

2696 Chelt (0-125) 21f hvy c 8
7 g MAMBO DES MOTTES(FR) 131 123
hdwy 9th, ev ch 2 out, kpt o flt 2/12 Posted, sf fit, NMQ50% & SPART, well clr of 3rd.

1923 Plump (0-108) 20f gd c 4
7 g MISSYL(FR) 106 102
styd on ag'n 3/6

2415 Weth (0-115) 16f st c 6
7 g MR PRICKLE(IRE) 119 113
led 3 out, drvn clr 1/8, Sp Fig, fresh

2916 Exeter (0-126) 19.5f gs c
6 g NENUPHAR COLLONGES(FR) 127 122 5
styd on fr 2 out, cl 3rd fell last F Noted, sf fit if hadn't fallen & wld be SPART. A bit dodgy this, an imaginary speed figure based on the reckoning that he fell with a winning chance.

2462 Newb (0-153) 26.5f st c 4
11 g OMNI COSMO TOUCH(USA) 130 126
nvr gng pce t reach ldrs 4/16 Sp Fig, fresh

2491 Leic (0-120) 16f gs h 8
8 g OVERSTRAND(IRE) 128 120
led a 2 out, rdn clr, 9 1/9 Sp Fig, fresh & fit when won a nice h'cap at 8/1 but has been lumbered out of it since.

2916 Exeter (0-108) 23.5f gs c
7 m PETITJEAN 118 111 7
rdn into 2nd aftr 2 out, hld 2/8 Noted, sf nr fresh & SPART. This was a first try at such a distance & I would give her a shout back over 20f.

2699 Chelt (0-135) 17f hvy h 12
7 g PILCA(FR) 124 112
4l's clr until hdd aftr last 2/16 Noted, sf fit & SPART.
2846 Ascot (0-139) 16f gd h 6
7 g PILCA(FR) 120 114
one pce fr 3 out 4/20 Noted, sf fit & SPART. This is the original, '& whose Most Recent shows Rapid Improvement,' quote.

2462 Newb (0-153) 26.5f st c 4
8 g PREACHER BOY 137 133
hdd 3 out, one pce 3/16

* 2956 Navan (0-110) 20f hvy h
6 g QUDRAAT(IRE) 106 102 4
7th appr 3 out, kpt on 4/14 Noted, sf fit & ran like further wld suit

2323 Hayd (0-130) 16f gs c 7
9 g ROMAN ARK 132 125
no xtr r-in, lost 2nd 3/6 Followed up over 20f.
2726 Mar Ras (0-125) 20f sgs c 4
9 g ROMAN ARK 136 132
led 8th, clr 3 out, styd on wl, 11l's 1/6 Noted & for trip. Lightly raced gd jumper who likes the mud. Boosts the form & re-qualifies but now only (+4)

1951 Chep (0-115) 16.5f gss c 6
9 g ROOFING SPIRIT(IRE) 121 115
drvn out 1/8 Sp Fig, fresh

* 2699 Chelt (0-135) 17f hvy h 17
7 m SHE'S SUPERSONIC(IRE) 123 106
hdwy fr 3 out, no imprsn on ldrs 3/16 Noted, sf fit & SPART ? Disappointing today but I reckon she'll be back.

2145 Newc (0-115) 16.5f gd c 5
8 g SILVER SEDGE(IRE) 116 111
kpt on, al hld 2/5

* 2956 Navan (0-110) 20f hvy h
6 g STONERAKER(IRE) 87 82 5
6th & hdwy 4 out, kpt on same pce 3/14 Noted, fresh, the archetypical Bubbling Under contender in that he was in a race with two TS's of 110+ & his TS is above his OR.

2415 Weth (0-115) 16f st c 5
11 g STORMY BEACH 99 94
hdd 3 out, same pc 2/8
2809 Catt (0-108) 16f gs c 8
11 g STORMY BEECH 110 102
made all, styd on wl fr 2 out 1/6 Noted, sf fit & SPART, first one to come in & better their SPART figure.

2669 Hunt (0-123) 16.5f st h 4
6 m SUNISA(IRE) 116 112
led 3 out, V, Easily 1/13 Posted, sf fit & V Easily, said to be a 'speed' 2 miler, sharpish, flat trax no like Leic last x. Could be the best (+4) we've got according to the manner of recent victory.

2846 Ascot (0-139) 16f gd h 7
6 g TARLAC(GER) 143 136
hdwy 6th, chsd wnr, nt quicken 2/20 Noted, sf fresh & SPART NMQ

1971 Hayd (0-116) 20f gd c 12
12 g TURGEONEV(FR) 135 123
hdd fnl 100yrds 2/8 Mord

* 2846 Ascot (0-139) 16f gd h 6
6 g VICTRAM(IRE) 136 130
prmsg hdwy 3 out, styd on same pace 3/20 Noted, sf fresh & SPART

1951 Chep (0-115) 16.5f gss c 7
7 g WAGES 114 107
same pce 2/8 Sp Fig, fresh

* 2846 Ascot (0-139) 16f gd h 4
8 g WELL MOUNTED(IRE) 123 119
BF, no xtr fr 5 out 5/20 Noted, sf fresh

* 2956 Navan (0-110) 20f hvy h
6 g WHAT'S IN FRONT(IRE) 112 98 14
prog t 2nd 3 out, no imprsn, kpt on 2/14 Noted, sf fit & shld be SPART after revision.

2696 Chelt (0-125) 21f hvy c 6
10 g WHEREAREYOUNOW(IRE) 124 118
lw, made all, drvn out 1/12 Posted, sf fresh, NMQ50% & SPART, formerly rated [138] when with Twiston Davies. Runs this very day @ Newbury against Irish Rapture (+3), there are slight doubts about the trip but this horse should strip fresher than that opponent & the stable are flying at present. At forecast odds these two may represent a fine dutching opportunity. Another fine disapointment.

2916 Exeter (0-108) 23.5f gs c
8 g ZANZIBAR BOY 103 98 5
led 4 out, styd on wl 1/8 Noted, sf fit & SPART

Now we have all the qualifiers we can determine the Rules. The only deviance from the rules so far is the inclusion of Anshabil, Gerrard (beat a fellow qualifier) & Island Of Memories (got close to Brave Villa) who may have not been in a race where someone has clocked a 110+ TS but they have run well against horses that have. And more lately Nenuphar Collonges who fell with a winning chance in a race where 2 of the first three have qualified.

Just as soon as the Weekender publish a full index of this season's NH runners I will plough through this lot & work out Win/Run, Profit/Loss ratios, that should be next week.

[Godspot]

Two qualifiers running today but there are negatives about both of them.

2.40 Hayd – Sunisa, (+4) & the best (+4) because she won, V. Easily last time.

She might like Haydock but I can’t be sure about ‘hvy’ ground and the stable have not had a winner within the last 14 days. That should be enough to stop the masses from dashing out to grab the evens forecast!(I’d take her on with Elegant Clutter & Wizard Of Us.)

2.55 Mussel – King Of The Arctic (+5)

9/2 in a 7-runner race is not bad but the stable are without a win in the last 14 days. All his career wins have been on ‘st, even over a longer trip. There are a few plusses though, he is the only qualifier in a weak looking race, the third from his last race has won since & the h’capper dropped him a lb for that & is now a (+5) as opposed to a usually disappointing (+4). (Personally though I’d still rather be on Millagros in the next race on this card.)

If nothing else though these two can help us decide whether the trainer has to have had a winner in the last 14 days as a fixed rule. Ignore the bits in dark slate grey, that's just me having a bit of fun, it does help to think there is a reason for all this.

[Godspot]

No Qualifiers....

[Godspot]

A couple of the above qualifiers must have ran on the day I wrote them up, Dosco & Cane Brake in Ireland, so I need to see whether they re-qualify. Otherwise we have 3 qualifiers running today & one from Dosco's qualifying race.....

12.30 Tramore

Stoneraker, (+5) 9 days & the winner of his last race has already come out & won since, so the forms good. Trainer & jockey have both had recent wins & did run as though a return to 16f would suit. The two top-weights & forecast favourites have to give him over a stone, so what with his jockey’s allowance & the 6/1 fc, this looks a fair bet.

1.50 Exeter

Like A Bee, fit 11 days (+7)
Could it be I’m going to suggest opposing two Fineform Maximum Rated. Our qualifiers most recent, was over CD & similar ground, because there are a couple of last time out winners in this race the betting is quite competitive & we're floating around 5/s.

3.10 Catt
Lord Rodney, (+10) 16 days fit, but trainer has had no wins in the last 14 days.
Sound Of Cheers(prev)(+10), C, 24 days & we could take him on with this.

In the last few days we've had three qualifiers run whose trainer's have not had a winner in the last 14 days & they have all lost - I think that is enough to make that a fixed rule.

Besides horses making a quick reappearance I think this thread should become less complicated & easy to manage. It would be nice to be showing a profit but I'm waiting on an index (Weds/Thurs).

Happy New Year 2 One & All!

[Godspot]

More 'spanners,' Zimbabwe was a Raceform SS winning qualifier & had recently been discarded, hopefully though he'll have earn't a TS worthy of inclusion yesterday - may even be a couple from that race.

2.30 Folk

Gerrard, 36, CD (+7)

A bit of a 'spanner' in that the trainer has only raced two horses within the last 12 months & this ones won 50%. The trainer has not had a winner since this one 36 days ago over CD & similar ground. The 2nd & 4th have gone in since & this could be an exception to the rule - the trouble with rules!

[Godspot]

I think we're all united in that this thread needs a little Refinement :ermmm but at the very least I think there some great Dutching opportunities today.

1.35 Sand

Refinement, 10, CD
United, 21, D

Besides a more likely stronger challenge from United, this is no more than she did last week. 2/1+ each, another Dutching opp.

2.05 Sand

Bongo Fury, 25, CD, BF
Bohemian Spirit, 28, D
Charlton Kings, 22, D

Top 2 look a safe Dutch, bar Pardishar

2.40 Sand

Astarador, 38, D, Skybet go 6/s, all else>
De Soto, 11, D
My Turn Now, 8, CD
Perce Rock, 23, D
Silverburn, 42, D

Winner usually from 1st 2 in betting & trainer P Nicholls has a fine record. It’s my guess though that Astarador or My Turn Now could give him a race.

3.10 Sand

Papini, 65, D (-2) bet365 go 6/s, all else>
Orcadian, 10 (-7)
Pilca, 21, D (+10)

The only trouble I can envisage for Plica is that trainer N Henderson should know what it takes to win this, having beaten Orcadian & Pilca with different horses – Papini is his choice from three entries here. Not a good race for favourites.

3.45 Sand

Nadover, 10 (-9)
Latimer’s Place, 24, CD (-7)
Preacher Boy, 42 (+4) 7/2f fc 9/16 tips & McCoy on
Avitta, 16 (+3). Ladbroke’s have @ 13/2, all else>

I fancied Preacher Boy for the Welsh National, this is a lot easier besides Avitta, who could make up another two against the field.

[Godspot]

Here's a mad scenario:

Another thing in handicaps that confuses the issue, is when they switch codes:

3.15 Kempton

Racing Demon, if we were to apply the above approach to his recent chase figure of 160 he'd be a (+14)

This is Grade 1 form in a Class 2

Something that isn't at first quite apparent in the RP today, is the preference of a Right handed track for the favourite as well.

Interesting to see how he gets on while I'm updating qualifiers.

[Godspot]

Another qualifier about to be posted would be:

3.30 Warw

Mon Mome (+10) & boasts highest TS of the day. Qualified in similar circumstances recently & will just have to run to near last time to figure here. Ideally we want him not favourite & the main opposition, D'Argent, will have to produce a career best.

[Godspot]

Interesting qualifier in the Pierse Hurdle this afternoon, being the second string of a stable that has won the race 6 times.

2.20 Leopardstown

Well Mounted (+9) Qualified behind Acambo recently off a mark of 119, gets in here off 114 and now rates as a +9. Is as low as 10/s with one but Betfair are offering 16/s.

[Godspot]

‘Andycaps is presently under re-construction rather like my whole set-up here but seeing as there is some quality running….

Chelt

1.35
Flying Enterprise(+9)
But I’d have to dutch him with the most promising An Accordian I’m afraid.

3.55
Idole First(+5)
I’d have to give Cousin Nicky an EW squeak, trainer has arguably the best record in this race, a bf with Dickie on 10 stone.

South

1.50
Launde(+5), trainer in form & had a winner on this day last year but
Mr Prickle(+6) qualifies as well to make a fair dutch against the favourite though previous winners haven’t done as well as placed horses the last five winners of this race have been either top or within 3lb of the top RPR. These two both qualify, unlike the fav on this count .

2.25
Mon Mome(+8), placed horses last time have a better record than previous winners here & if he’s not fav would augur well but can he carry the weight. Certainly deserves to win a race though.

Uttox

2.35
Predestine(+11), not a lot of opposition here & almost qualifies on Favs FC as well.

[Godspot]

Two qualifiers today, both @ Wincanton:

2.10

Zanzibar Boy(+5)

3.10

Flying Enterprise(+6), last time for this one, unless he achieves a personal best here, once his revised rating kicks in he will no longer be a qualifier.

[Godspot]

Just as soon as am happy with this spread sheet I’ve been working on, this thread is set for a major overhaul & due to recent results, Irish selections will be included. In the meantime, if there is a horse that has made this thread worthwhile, he’s running in the:

3.30 Musselburgh – PILCA(+6)

You may find that there has been one or two others that have been laid out specifically for this race but at 10/1, with 1/3rd of the tips in the RP & 10 Postdata ticks & returning to the CD where he proved himself worthy of interest in the first place, I’ll let someone else find the opposition.

[Godspot]

After having ditched the Irish qualifiers, recent results have persuaded me otherwise, less qualifiers & more winners says they’re back. It certainly seems to me that Irish qualifiers are more profitable & I may base this system entirely around them for reasons mentioned in the Irish Racing thread under Punchestown Grade 1.

3.05 Down Royal,

MONDEGO(GER)(+13)

13l’s clear of the third at Leopardstown last time & the winner, Stoneraker has already gone in again. Likely to be favourite on that basis but the form is solid & he gets Spotlight’s Nap.

[Godspot]

Having missed a winning qualifier yesterday, I’m a little gutted to say the least, I was too busy completing a little project & having almost written a book about the prospects of two qualifiers in the 3.40, I have decided to ditch them because the single qualifier in the race before faces a much easier task.

Kempton – 3.10

Haunted House(+7)

Now that I’ve got the little project up to date I will now have time to get this thread back on track.

[Godspot]

After yesterday, I was right in ditching those two qualifiers & I will be seeking advice about this system, later.
If I can re-invent it, it wil be back with Irish qualifiers & there are two going:

3.25 Leop

I do declare there seems to be a mistake in the Weekender & I have two qualifiers on my figures in this race:

Cadogan(+8)
Jaamid(+7) who I fancied for the Totesport Trophy, his TS has been misrepresented in the Weekender.

I suggest a dutch on these two.

Whatever the P/L, LSP on this thread, it should improve once I finally get it sorted, as I've said above I will address the issues in the system advice thread later.