Favs.fc

[Godspot]

Like I've said in the rules section, I'm wary of when to activate this system because I'm sure we must be due a loser, so I'm just making note of qualifiers for the time being, so

Uttox

4.15
Openditch,

I give horses that are odds on fc ½ a point so qualifies with 17.5 points.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

If it is a system, what does it matter when you start?

If a single odds on shot winning or losing is going to make any difference to the long term profits, you might want to rethink whether it is really worth following.

[Godspot]

You're right Oldham, I just had a feeling a loser was coming & so it proved. Still have an 80% sr & almost 25% ROI so I'll stick with it for a while & though I can afford another loser, I'm not altogether happy with the jockey booking of today's qualifier but like you say, a system is a system etc.

2.10 Taunton

Leading Contender

[Godspot]

So we've hit our first losing run, two in a row. Still have a 73% sr though & I'm a little more confident that one of these at least (Newc) looks solid to me.

01/31/07

2.20 Newc Hurdle
6 g NAIAD DU MISSELOT 3.0 14 17.0

2.40 Leicester Hurdle
6 g SKIPPERS BRIG 4.0 13 17.0

[Godspot]

I could have sworn I posted a 2/5f winner on here on Monday. Yeh, King Revo - It qualified with 19.5 pts, the highest I’ve yet seen. Looks like I messed up the posting side of things. Anyway the first two fav’s at Taunton both qualify with 18.5 pts.

1.50 – I’m Lovin’ It
2.20 – Wise Owl, I’m a bit doubtful about this one cos the weather has done it no favours overnight.

[mathare]

We gonna see a P/L on this anytime soon?

[Godspot]

Pretty soon, I'm just finishing off a little project but I almost wrote words to that effect before I posted, must be getting lazy, lol.

[Godspot]

Having just survived a losing run of four bets, this is worth persevering with.

11 winners from 16 selections = 69% sr
ROI = 3.12% @ 16.50
Average price of winner = 1.45 or just under 1/2.

I know that is not a great deal of profit but the original idea was to identify strong favourites that are possibly hard to oppose. Ironically, it was a losing run of 4 that put me off adapting this to the AW so I may have to look into that again. I would love to add a pound sign somewhere but since I've installed Windows XP I don't seem to have one!

[bigcumba]

I would love to add a pound sign somewhere but since I've installed Windows XP I don't seem to have one!

Here, borrow mine for now, but I want it back by tonight... :wink £

[Godspot]

1.35 Newbury

Denman, 18pts

2.40 Newbury,

Kauto Star, 18.5pts

If one of these loses we could be running at a minor loss, perish the thought.

[vegyjones]

11 winners from 16 selections = 69% sr

When doing a P/L analysis,
it's best only to use selections that have been highlighted in the thread so as not to give anyone the impression that you might be tampering with results!

[Godspot]

Sorry, besides King Revo (who I thought I'd posted) I have just continued to count qualifiers since my records began back in the Rules thread.

[Godspot]

Missed another qualifying winner in Chief Yeoman, Wednesday, I think @ 2/9. There are two qualifiers today @ Fakenham though:

3.10 – Be Telling,
4.20 - Le Passing,

I'm not altogether sure yet as to whether backing these horses is profitable (see Rules above thread), what I am sure of is that I haven't worked out a way of profitably opposing these qualifiers. I hope that makes sense!

[Godspot]

16 winners from 21 selections = 76% sr
ROI = almost 15% @ 24.14
Average price of winner = 1.5 or 1/2. That's more like it & if it could round off at this level, this is well worth persevering with.

2.55 – Ascot – Best Actor

Could go completely mental & keep a record of AW qualifiers & see how they get on.

1.35 – Ling(AW) – Barney McGrew

[Godspot]

I have no idea of a % sr for these AW qualifiers besides 1-0 down so far, I'm listing them for the record.

2.30 – South(AW) – Rann Na Cille(80, +17)(s)
5.00 – South(AW) – Rosa De Mi Corazon(88, +19+)

[Godspot]

1.40 Sand – Nike Walker, 4yo+ hh cj’s (128, +23+) 2/5f fc
4.40 Warw – Helen Wood 4yo+ m’s hh (100, +18) at a course where h’cap fav’s show a LSP. 4/6f fc

AW

2.35 Wolv - My Mirasol, 3yo (s) (87, +20+) trainer’s choice of three & has 60% sr at this meet, 100% in this race. 1/2f fc


What I'm finding on another similar thread (So Clear), as long as these AW selections are the favourite, they win, if they're not, they tend to lose.

[racehorse]

godspot is the green the one to back and the blue to lay here

[Godspot]

is the green the one to back and the blue to lay here

Hopefully bud, anything emboldened still has an above 70% chance of winning & is hard to oppose. The green & blue just separates the Jumps from the AW.

3.05 Ling(AW) – Areyoutalkingtome 4yo+ List’d (130, +20+) 2/5f fc

The idea behind this thread is just to identify strong, hard to oppose favourites

[bigcumba]

godspot is the green the one to back and the blue to lay here

for those of you reading this on a black and white monitor.... :wink

[Godspot]

for those of you reading this on a black and white monitor....


Hopefully bud, anything emboldened still has an above 70% chance of winning

Having said that I'm not going to embolden this next flat qualifier as I think the ones from the flat are best watched at present & this ones trying a new trip.

2.00 LING – 3yo Claim, My Mirasol(84, +18) 10/11f fc