Mug OUFC's Really Crap Non League bets

[Merlin]

Nice result ol son...

[monty]

Tuesday, 18 September 2007

Aldershot v York, 19:45 :happyboun
Altrincham v Cambridge Utd , 19:45:happyboun
Burton Albion v Ebbsfleet United, 19:45
Crawley Town v Woking, 19:45
Exeter v Forest Green, 19:45
Halifax v Northwich, 19:45:happyboun
Histon v Torquay, 19:45
Kidderminster v Droylsden, 19:45:happyboun
Salisbury v Stafford Rangers, 19:45:happyboun
Stevenage v Farsley Celtic, 19:45:happyboun
Weymouth v Rushden & D'monds, 19:45


Mug OUFC

Just incase your interested? This is what the my ratings is picking out as likely wins in the midweek games. :)


That went well....:D

[Mug OUFC]

:happyboun:happyboun:happyboun

[monty]

Mug OUFC the Non League ratings seem to be working a bit better this season. Question is can it stay in profit?

Prices taken from Odds checker earlier today:

Aldershot 1.75
Cambridge 2.20
Halifax 1.67
Kidderminster 1.62
Salisbury 1.67
Stevenage 1.40

At Level Stakes 6 x 1pts
Staked 6 pts
Returned 10.31pts

Profit 4.31pts

[Mug OUFC]

Tonight was an excellent night monty where everybody behaved themselves and went to form. No way can it be this good everytime...but theres no doubting your sheets form so far...its doing a better than me :)

My only (very minor) criticism is that it throws up a lot of bets...and i get nervous placing multiple bets.

[monty]

Agreed Mate it does tend to pick out a lot of teams, but I can alter that by only posting up the top 3? I only posted the others becasue they were very high compared to some weeks. I've seen it having only one pick before.

[Mug OUFC]

Yeah that is a fair point, there was a lot of options last night.

Posting your 'A' rated, 'B' rated and 'C' rated selections would definitely be useful :thumbs

[monty]

Saturday, 22 September 2007

Aldershot v Farsley Celtic, 15:00
Altrincham v Droylsden, 15:00
Burton Albion v Woking, 15:00
Crawley Town v Forest Green, 15:00
Exeter v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Grays Athletic v York, 15:00
Halifax v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Kidderminster v Torquay, 15:00
Salisbury v Northwich, 15:00
Stevenage v Cambridge Utd, 15:00
Weymouth v Stafford Rangers, 15:00

Histon v Oxford Utd, 19:45 Thursday 20th

Just when I was about to cut the teams down a bit the sheet only picks out 4 teams for the weekend, and there all home wins. The best rated Away is Oxford Utd on Thursday, but sadly it didn't come out high enough to become a pick.

Mug OUFC ...When do you think we will get a backlash?

[Mug OUFC]

6 point treble @ bluesquare
Halifax 1.61
Kidderminster 1.53
Stevenage 1.4


Got away with it *phew*

BET ANALYSIS
Won 10
Lost 8
Total 18
Strike Rate 56%
Total Staked 60.00
Profit(loss) 23.61
Yield 39%

[Mug OUFC]

Saturday, 22 September 2007

Aldershot v Farsley Celtic, 15:00
Altrincham v Droylsden, 15:00
Burton Albion v Woking, 15:00
Crawley Town v Forest Green, 15:00
Exeter v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Grays Athletic v York, 15:00
Halifax v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Kidderminster v Torquay, 15:00
Salisbury v Northwich, 15:00
Stevenage v Cambridge Utd, 15:00
Weymouth v Stafford Rangers, 15:00

Histon v Oxford Utd, 19:45 Thursday 20th

Just when I was about to cut the teams down a bit the sheet only picks out 4 teams for the weekend, and there all home wins. The best rated Away is Oxford Utd on Thursday, but sadly it didn't come out high enough to become a pick.

Mug OUFC ...When do you think we will get a backlash?


:laugh Best ask merlin he is the one with the midas touch

At first glance, out of that lot, Aldershot look nailed on.

Re: Oxford at histon tomorrow night...Histon got turned over by Torquay last night and are part timers I think...surely three games in 6 days will take its toll?

[monty]

Well Done Mate... :thumbs

[monty]

Re: Oxford at histon tomorrow night...Histon got turned over by Torquay last night and are part timers I think...surely three games in 6 days will take its toll?

That's True Mate, but I was just going with the Ratings that the sheet gave out, and if I was to go by the numbers on the sheet? then Oxford Utd would only make Grade B Oxford Utd still the best Rated Away... so I'll probably have a bet on them anyway....:D

[Mug OUFC]

Agreed - if all other things were equal i wouldnt be confident about oxford coming away with anything at the moment we are approaching a crisis. And we are a negative team who are happy to just take a point away. But at odds of 2.25 I'm going to stick my neck out and gamble on histon being knackered.

[monty]

But at odds of 2.25 I'm going to stick my neck out and gamble on histon being knackered.

Sounds good to me..:D

[MoodyDoo]

I wouldn't bank on OUFC beating anyone at the minute lads.

[Mug OUFC]

Shut up

[monty]

I wouldn't bank on OUFC beating anyone at the minute lads.


That's what we were saying earlier, we said the Oxford Utd rating was the highest of all the away teams, but was not really high enough to judged a good pick. But Mug OUFC thinks Histon will be tknackered after playing 3 games in a week, and with a decent price on offer we're willing to take the chance on Oxford Utd winning. But for me It will only be a small bet.

[Merlin]

Come on Oxford

[Merlin]

I wouldn't bank on OUFC beating anyone at the minute lads.


Why?

[Mug OUFC]

He may be a clown, but he is right we are struggling.

OK, our heroes are live on setanta tonight, away to a village team called histon.

This is part time Histons 3rd game in 6 days, they are a physical team, and they had a 9 goal thriller with torquay on tuesday night, so they must be tired. Reports are their pitch is ok which will help oxford.

But..histon are no mugs with john beck on the staff, plus its probably first time on telly for a lot of them and that will lift them especially at home.... and there is growing discontent at oxford at their stuttering start.

i got a free bet at blue square which i have put on. Worth a bet for interest but not one for anything other than small stakes.

3 points Oxford 2.25 (bluesq)

[MoodyDoo]

As I suspected a defeat. Shambles :splapme

[Mug OUFC]

BET ANALYSIS
Won 10
Lost 9
Total 19
Strike Rate 53%
Total Staked 63.00
Profit(loss) 20.61
Yield 33%

Interesting that my worse bets are on (or against) oxford :yikes:


Saturday bet:
Aldershot v Farsley
10 POINTS :yikes: on the home win @ 1.57 (betfred)

My first 10 pointer...2nd v 19th....Aldershot have won 5 on the bounce and looked strong beating oxford last week. Farsley have shipped 6 goals in their last two games, defeats to exeter and stevenage...two teams in a similar position to Aldershot in the table. I was expecting odds around 1.4 for this.

[monty]

Mug

Have you got anymore picks for Saturday?

[Mug OUFC]

Im going to stick with this monty my friend...Im already a bit concerned Ive over bet it by 2 points anyway :ooo

The other games you have picked out look likely but for one reason or another Im not REALLY confident on them...not that Ive proven your sheet wrong once yet

[MoodyDoo]

I am only on Aldershot.

[monty]

Im going to stick with this monty my friend...Im already a bit concerned Ive over bet it by 2 points anyway :ooo

The other games you have picked out look likely but for one reason or another Im not REALLY confident on them...not that Ive proven your sheet wrong once yet

I have to admit mate! I'm not so confident about them either...:ermmm I had thought about doing them, but now I'm not so sure.

[Merlin]

easy peasy lemon squeezy...........

[Mug OUFC]

Yep just the 84th minute winner required :yikes: :D:D:D

[monty]

Saturday, 22 September 2007

Aldershot v Farsley Celtic, 15:00 :happyboun 4-3
Altrincham v Droylsden, 15:00
Burton Albion v Woking, 15:00 :happyboun 2-0
Crawley Town v Forest Green, 15:00
Exeter v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Grays Athletic v York, 15:00
Halifax v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Kidderminster v Torquay, 15:00
Salisbury v Northwich, 15:00 :happyboun 2-0
Stevenage v Cambridge Utd, 15:00
Weymouth v Stafford Rangers, 15:00 :ermmm 1-3

Histon v Oxford Utd, 19:45 Thursday 20th

Just when I was about to cut the teams down a bit the sheet only picks out 4 teams for the weekend, and there all home wins. The best rated Away is Oxford Utd on Thursday, but sadly it didn't come out high enough to become a pick.

Mug OUFC ...When do you think we will get a backlash?


3 wins from 4 picks

[Mug OUFC]

Thats good going monty, today was trappy :thumbs

[monty]

So far so good, I just hope it keeps kicking out a few winners for us... :)

[Merlin]

Well done , C...you kept it simple (unlike me today)...and well deserved profit....

[Mug OUFC]

I am a simple village boy :D

Tough looking round tuesday night boys, i think some merlinesque speculative punting may be in order, what have you got monty?

[monty]

Tuesday, 25 September 2007
Cambridge Utd v Aldershot, 19:45
Droylsden v Burton Albion, 19:45 (A)
Ebbsfleet United v Crawley Town, 19:45
Forest Green v Stevenage, 19:45
Oxford Utd v Salisbury, 19:45
Rushden & D'monds v Grays Athletic, 19:45
Stafford Rangers v Histon, 19:45 (C)
Torquay v Weymouth, 19:45 (B)
Woking v Exeter, 19:45


It's not kicking out very much, looks like Torquay and Burton double for me, as I don't trust Histon.

[Mug OUFC]

Yep that sounds about right

Dryolesden cant go on losing forever, but burton should be too good for them. And I dont rate weymouth...apart from their striker.

[Merlin]

I am a simple village boy :D

Tough looking round tuesday night boys, i think some merlinesque speculative punting may be in order, what have you got monty?

I have a shock result lined up for Tuesday.......

[Mug OUFC]

Go on then, is it salisbury?

[Mug OUFC]

BET ANALYSIS
Won 11
Lost 9
Total 20
Strike Rate 55%
Total Staked 73.00
Profit(loss) 26.31
Yield 36%

[monty]

I think it's Stafford

[Merlin]

Weymouth @ 7.00 or 5.50 draw no bet

[Mug OUFC]

:yikes:

[monty]

Weymouth @ 7.00 or 5.50 draw no bet


:yikes: ..... Why do you think that?

[Mug OUFC]

Wind Up :D

[Mug OUFC]

OK

Tonight is tough.

Montys suggestion of a torquay/burton double sounds like the best shout - but NOTWITHSTANDING montys excellent results to date and my own predictions - i am very nervous.

Merlin reckons weymouth can get something against torquay....I think he is mental but NOTWITHSTANDING this it is enough to put me off at odds of around 1.45.

Burton look good at droylsden who are whipping boys: the brewers are getting players back, hitting a decent bit of form and have strengthened their attack this week, but NOTWITHSTANDING this droylsden cant go on losing forever...midweek games arent always as predictable as weekend games particularly in the lower leagues...1.91 isnt a massive price.

So i think i might try a merlin style speculative effort this evening for small stakes. As i say i think tonight is tough...and therefore if games are hard to pick a winner maybe there will be some draws about. Ive picked out the four i think most likely and i will put them in doubles, trebles and a 4 fold. 2 in will result in tiny profit, all in and I am laughing.

Cambridge v Aldershot DRAW
Cambridge won 11 in a row and unbeaten all season vs aldershot won 8 in row won all away. Got to be a draw?

Oxford v Salisbury DRAW
Salisbury looked good at forest green on telly the other week and have won 2 more since then, NOTWITHSTANDING against poor opponents. They are better at home than away but NOTWITHSTANDING this are a strong high tempo side. Oxford are in all sorts of trouble at the moment, they lack leadership and drive and struggle under the pressure of demanding home fans.

Rushden v Grays DRAW
Rushden drawn 4 of last 5. Grays are incredibly inconsistent.

Woking v Exeter DRAW
Woking are a home side and like drawing at home (4 of 5). Exeter have drawn 4 of last 5.

Merlin help me out with my staking, what do you think?

Doubles 6 @ ???
Trebles 4 @ ???
4 fold 1 @ ???

This is speculative and I wouldnt suprised if it fails...NOTWITHSTANDING this I think it is worth a punt. Watch Burton and Torquay p1ss home while there isnt a single draw in the whole league tonight.

[Mug OUFC]

I guess I should really have ebbsfleet v crawley in there too...that looks a hard one to call :rolleyes:

[Merlin]

Tricky…..C…………

I think they could all possibly draw……Exception being, I do fancy Cambridge to win………

If you must play the 4 as draws……..I think full cover is being too optimistic……I would leave out the trebles…and play 6 doubles…..with a reduced stake on the acca……

[Mug OUFC]

I may well follow you on that cambridge in addition to this, they have just signed probably our worst ever striker on a 3 month loan though :ooo

Yeah agreed that staking plan sounds good. Same with 5 draws if i add ebbsfleet in? 10 doubles and one small 5-fold? Stll breakeven if 2 come in. Would only be small stakes, it is very speculative.

[Mug OUFC]

OK

Paddy power

Draws:
cam 3.25
ebbs 3.25
ox 3.4
rush 3.25
wok 3.2

Draws are running at about 29% in the BSP this season and 25% last season, so i would hope to get 1 double in and cover my costs, plus there is always the (slim) chance of a jackpot on a set of fixtures that are not for the faint hearted.

Stakes will therefore be low

Doubles 10 @ 0.5 points each
Fivefold 1@ 0.125 point

Total staked 5.125 points

[Merlin]

You havent got Cambridge as a draw in that lot now, have you?.....:laugh….

[Mug OUFC]

Yirr :D

[Skittle]

Torquay will do for me tonight.

[Mug OUFC]

You havent got Cambridge as a draw in that lot now, have you?.....:laugh….

Im about to place the bet and im bottling it now youve said that ;fire

[Merlin]

Easy peasy answer......put Cambridge in as a home win......:yikes:

[Merlin]

Torquay will do for me tonight.

Not like you to go for the hard ones....S

[monty]

To be honest with you guys I don't like the look of the games tonight, so I've went with teams my ratings picked out. I've taken 2 singles and a double with Torquay, Burton and also taken a single on Gray's Athletic in the Asian Handicap 0.0,0.5

Good Luck Guys....:thumbs

[Merlin]

Good Luck....M....with Burton anyway....

[monty]

Tuesday, 25 September 2007
Cambridge Utd v Aldershot, 19:45
Droylsden v Burton Albion, 19:45 (A) :happyboun
Ebbsfleet United v Crawley Town, 19:45
Forest Green v Stevenage, 19:45
Oxford Utd v Salisbury, 19:45
Rushden & D'monds v Grays Athletic, 19:45
Stafford Rangers v Histon, 19:45 (C) :ermmm
Torquay v Weymouth, 19:45 (B) :happyboun
Woking v Exeter, 19:45


It's not kicking out very much, looks like Torquay and Burton double for me, as I don't trust Histon.


To be honest with you guys I don't like the look of the games tonight, so I've went with teams my ratings picked out. I've taken 2 singles and a double with Torquay, Burton and also taken a single on Gray's Athletic in the Asian Handicap 0.0,0.5

Good Luck Guys....:thumbs



Torquay :happyboun...Burton :happyboun and Gray's Asian Handicap bet also comes in :happyboun and I was right not to trust Histon.

I'm happy enough with the results tonight....:D

[Merlin]

Nice one M....well done....

[monty]

Thank's Merlin

My mistake Gray's was 1/2 win have 1/2 void, but still profit anyway, I never seem to be able to work out the Asian Handicap bets

[Merlin]

I feel robbed tonight......Cambridge led for most of the game…..until 87 mins…

And I didnt do the reverse half time full time with Weymouth....doh....

But it wasn’t such a silly bet on Weymoth after all – nearly came off…

[monty]

You should feel robbed, and it wasn't a silly bet, I honestly thought you were going to win with both your bets tonight. And it's typical the half time full time bet comes in the night you don't put it on.

[Merlin]

M...I have left a message for you over at the other pub...

[monty]

Replied... :D

[Merlin]

OK

Tonight is tough.

Montys suggestion of a torquay/burton double sounds like the best shout - but NOTWITHSTANDING montys excellent results to date and my own predictions - i am very nervous.

Merlin reckons weymouth can get something against torquay....I think he is mental but NOTWITHSTANDING this it is enough to put me off at odds of around 1.45.

Burton look good at droylsden who are whipping boys: the brewers are getting players back, hitting a decent bit of form and have strengthened their attack this week, but NOTWITHSTANDING this droylsden cant go on losing forever...midweek games arent always as predictable as weekend games particularly in the lower leagues...1.91 isnt a massive price.

So i think i might try a merlin style speculative effort this evening for small stakes. As i say i think tonight is tough...and therefore if games are hard to pick a winner maybe there will be some draws about. Ive picked out the four i think most likely and i will put them in doubles, trebles and a 4 fold. 2 in will result in tiny profit, all in and I am laughing.

Cambridge v Aldershot DRAW
Cambridge won 11 in a row and unbeaten all season vs aldershot won 8 in row won all away. Got to be a draw?

Oxford v Salisbury DRAW
Salisbury looked good at forest green on telly the other week and have won 2 more since then, NOTWITHSTANDING against poor opponents. They are better at home than away but NOTWITHSTANDING this are a strong high tempo side. Oxford are in all sorts of trouble at the moment, they lack leadership and drive and struggle under the pressure of demanding home fans.

Rushden v Grays DRAW
Rushden drawn 4 of last 5. Grays are incredibly inconsistent.

Woking v Exeter DRAW
Woking are a home side and like drawing at home (4 of 5). Exeter have drawn 4 of last 5.

Merlin help me out with my staking, what do you think?

Doubles 6 @ ???
Trebles 4 @ ???
4 fold 1 @ ???

This is speculative and I wouldnt suprised if it fails...NOTWITHSTANDING this I think it is worth a punt. Watch Burton and Torquay p1ss home while there isnt a single draw in the whole league tonight.


Top marks....you got 3 , C....I think.....well done.....

[monty]

OK

Tonight is tough.

Montys suggestion of a torquay/burton double sounds like the best shout - but NOTWITHSTANDING montys excellent results to date and my own predictions - i am very nervous.




Nervous? why were you nervous mate, Torquay won the game and still had a minute to spare....:yikes:

Well done with your draws....:thumbs

[Merlin]

Replied... :D


Changed my mind.......last minute.....

Should I lay or should I play now?
Should I lay or should I play now?
If I play there will be trouble
An if I lay it will be double
So come on and let me know…..

Should I lay or should I play…

Its always, tease ,tease, tease….:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

I took cambridge out so i only got 2 draws :rolleyes:

Well done monty, your sheet must be well up now :thumbs

[Merlin]

I took cambridge out so i only got 2 draws :rolleyes:

Well done monty, your sheet must be well up now :thumbs


:yikes:

[Merlin]

Roundabouts and swings

[Mug OUFC]

Onwards and upwards :)

[monty]

M are you confident about your game later?

[monty]

Will I go with you bet...:doh


Maybees aye.... maybees naw....:mover

[Merlin]

M are you confident about your game later?

6 Points reflect the confidence...M.......they should win.....but its not worth 8 Points:yikes:

They haven’t lost at home for 13 games (draws included)…Santos was the last team to beat them at home in April…

[monty]

I'm on it...:D

[Merlin]

Lets go.....

[Skittle]

Nice late one from Torquay, also had Arsenal and Man City. A real late late show for me tonight. :D :REGamblMo .

[Merlin]

Nice late one from Torquay, also had Arsenal and Man City. A real late late show for me tonight. :D :REGamblMo .

Nice one , Skittle...you will be able to retire soon….

Get a strapper on the car….bobs yer uncle…

[Skittle]

Retirement is a few years away yet. Not sure what I would do with myself all day. Probably spend too much time on the laptop and betting which would make me more lazy and lethargic than I am now. It's bad enough sat down all shift in the cab.

[monty]

Saturday, 29 September 2007

Crawley Town v Altrincham, 15:00 (B)
Farsley Celtic v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Forest Green v Cambridge Utd, 15:00
Grays Athletic v Stevenage, 15:00 (C)
Histon v Weymouth, 15:00
Northwich v Woking, 15:00
Rushden & D'monds v Stafford Rangers, 15:00
Salisbury v Kidderminster, 15:00 (D)
Torquay v Droylsden, 15:00 (A)

30th September

Oxford Utd v York, 15:00

Mug OUFC

There is only two teams coming out from my ratings as picks for the weekend fixtures (Red), I've also added the next best home and the next best away (Blue), but be careful with these two? as both teams didn't quite reach my target to become a pick?
I would have thought there would have been more than two picks this week? but there you go mate! one week the ratings can fire out half a dozen picks then we're down to two....:doh

Anyway Good Luck with whatever you guys pick....:thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

Agree on torquay (obviously) and Crawley. Odds wont be great for either though.

Dirty Salisbury are a good home team but Kidderminster are one of these teams who can thrash and get thrashed by anybody anyday. Better just to avoid there games. Stevenage have hit a mild blip. Best both left alone.

Torquay Crawley double?

[monty]

Agree on torquay (obviously) and Crawley. Odds wont be great for either though.

Dirty Salisbury are a good home team but Kidderminster are one of these teams who can thrash and get thrashed by anybody anyday. Better just to avoid there games. Stevenage have hit a mild blip. Best both left alone.

Torquay Crawley double?


You should be able to get slightly over even money for that double, and with the amount of correct picks the ratings have had? I would think that's quite good.

[Mug OUFC]

I concur.

I assume it hasnt got a pick for york v halifax tomorrow night? Im erring towards the home win if i can get a big price on it. York have had a poor run but have been playing the top sides. Halifax have been doing well but have been playing the lesser teams.

[monty]

I concur.

I assume it hasnt got a pick for york v halifax tomorrow night? Im erring towards the home win if i can get a big price on it. York have had a poor run but have been playing the top sides. Halifax have been doing well but have been playing the lesser teams.


My ratings are favouring the Away Win tomorrow night, but it's not high enough to be even considered for a bet. If I did bet this game going by my rating it would be on a small stake. But to be honest mate I'll give this one a miss.

[Mug OUFC]

how should i put tuesday night into my stats?

the bet i actually posted got 3 in
the bet i actually placed got 2 in

which should i use for this thread?

[Merlin]

The one you posted.............

[Mug OUFC]

Crawley/Torquay double it is. Dont really need to explain either

6 points Crawley and Torquay @ 1.96 (blue sq and paddys)

[Mug OUFC]

Stats before above bet

BET ANALYSIS
Won 12
Lost 9
Total 21
Strike Rate 57%
Total Staked 78.13
Profit(loss) 36.87
Yield 47%

[Merlin]

Well done , nice profit......see...miracles are possible...:laugh

Looks a banker double their for Sat….think Oxford will win Sunday, too……as miracles do happen :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Yeah got 10 points for that draw acca - wish Id actually bet it :splapme

I watched the york game last night, great comeback, will give them confidence, they looked shakey at the back, as do we, should be goals in it.

[Mug OUFC]

Crap Day

[monty]

Saturday, 29 September 2007

Crawley Town v Altrincham, 15:00 (B):ermmm
Farsley Celtic v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Forest Green v Cambridge Utd, 15:00
Grays Athletic v Stevenage, 15:00 (C) :happyboun
Histon v Weymouth, 15:00
Northwich v Woking, 15:00
Rushden & D'monds v Stafford Rangers, 15:00
Salisbury v Kidderminster, 15:00 (D):ermmm
Torquay v Droylsden, 15:00 (A) :happyboun

30th September


Oxford Utd v York, 15:00

Mug OUFC

There is only two teams coming out from my ratings as picks for the weekend fixtures (Red), I've also added the next best home and the next best away (Blue), but be careful with these two? as both teams didn't quite reach my target to become a pick?
I would have thought there would have been more than two picks this week? but there you go mate! one week the ratings can fire out half a dozen picks then we're down to two....:doh

Anyway Good Luck with whatever you guys pick....:thumbs


The Picks went 1 form 2 this week, and even that was lucky...:) The next best also went 1 from 2

[andyp]

good thread mate, rep for you

[Mug OUFC]

Oxford v York
Oxford won last home game to take pressure off jim smith but performance was acceptable rather than impressive. Achilles heel is drawing at home.
York were under real pressure but won 2 in a row - away at grays and home to halifax. Oxford drew these exact two fixtures in the last few weeks.

Bookies prices are around 1.8 for oxford while you can get + 2.00 on betfair...odd.

Selection:
1 point correct score 1-1 @ 7
0.5 points correct score 2-2 @ 15
(betfred/blue sq)

[Merlin]

Tut - Tut- Tut....

[Mug OUFC]

:D

I got them to win in your acca so im covered for that - wouldnt want us to be a goal up and me sitting there wanting york to equalise.

[Merlin]

Oxford v York
Oxford won last home game to take pressure off jim smith but performance was acceptable rather than impressive. Achilles heel is drawing at home.
York were under real pressure but won 2 in a row - away at grays and home to halifax. Oxford drew these exact two fixtures in the last few weeks.

Bookies prices are around 1.8 for oxford while you can get + 2.00 on betfair...odd.

Selection:
1 point correct score 1-1 @ 7
0.5 points correct score 2-2 @ 15
(betfred/blue sq)

You lucky barstewrd

[Mug OUFC]

Gives me no pleasure being right on this one mate :mad: And york missed a peno :ooo

We are going nowhere this season ;fire

Actually Im a bit narked off at only staking 1 point on this. I was very confident (for a change).

[Mug OUFC]

BET ANALYSIS
Won 13
Lost 11
Total 24
Strike Rate 54%
Total Staked 85.63
Profit(loss) 36.37
Yield 42%

Thinking about aldershot home to exeter tomorrow, if the team news is positive. What do you think 'M' Team?

[Merlin]

Epls

[Mug OUFC]

Educational Psychology and Leadership Studies? :doh

[Merlin]

Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy

[Mug OUFC]

OIC :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Ive gone off aldershot. Smells drawish.

[Skittle]

Kiddy could be worth a look.

[Mug OUFC]

Evertime i have seen kiddy they have been excellent. Good football, mobile strikers, able to beat anyone on their day.

They dont seem able to put any sort of consistency together though, one saturday they will beat a top of the table team away, then three days later lose to someone pony at home. As an example, their last 5 games have been WLWLW

However, northwichs pitch is nicely set up for a footballing team like kiddy...and northwich are in crisis.

So I defintely wouldnt want to put anyone off...

but unless monty comes in with a strong pick on his spreadsheet for them i think i will leave them alone at ~ 1.7.

[Skittle]

.....................now I'm really not sure:ermmm. Plenty of choice elsewhere so I'll probably leave it.

[monty]

Tuesday, 02 October 2007

Aldershot v Exeter, 19:45

Halifax v Burton Albion, 19:45

Northwich v's Kidderminster, 19:45

Mug OUFC

Only Kidderminster is coming out as a strong pick. I can't split the other two matches.

[Mug OUFC]

Bugger :laugh

[monty]

I've already got my bets on, so I'll give Kidderminster a miss tonight.

[Mug OUFC]

Ditto

[Mug OUFC]

Aldershot 2-0 Exeter
Halifax 2-2 Burton
Northwich 1-1 Kidderminster

Should have stuck with the Shots.

Nice dodge on kiddy though

[monty]

Tuesday, 02 October 2007

Aldershot v Exeter, 19:45

Halifax v Burton Albion, 19:45

Northwich v's Kidderminster, 19:45 :ermmm




Mug OUFC

You were right about Kidderminster.

[monty]

Mug

I'll should have the weekend picks ready in around 20 mins. I'm just adding in the new league table and the weekend fixtures to my ratings just now.

[Mug OUFC]

Mug OUFC

You were right about Kidderminster.

I think thats the first time Ive beaten your sheet. Only took about 12attempts :laugh

Looking forward to the weekend picks :thumbs

[monty]

Saturday, 06 October 2007
Altrincham v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Burton Albion v Salisbury, 15:00
Cambridge Utd v Halifax, 15:00
Droylsden v Oxford Utd, 17:15
Ebbsfleet United v Torquay, 15:00
Exeter v Grays Athletic, 15:00
Kidderminster v Crawley Town, 15:00
Stafford Rangers v Forest Green, 15:00
Stevenage v Aldershot, 15:00
Weymouth v Northwich, 15:00
York v Histon, 15:00
Woking v Farsley Celtic, 19:45

[monty]

I think thats the first time Ive beaten your sheet. Only took about 12attempts :laugh

Looking forward to the weekend picks :thumbs

Well you did name the thread well.....:laugh:laugh:laugh
Hopefully the sheet will get a few winners at the weekend....:thumbs

[monty]

Mug OUFC

Do the teams in this league play close to each other? Apart from Cambridge, Oxford, and York I have no idea where the other teams come from.

Who would you say have the biggest distance to travel?

[Mug OUFC]

Monty Monty dont be a prick, click me now and click me quick (http://www.tonykempster.co.uk/confmiles.htm) :thumbs

[monty]

Monty Monty dont be a prick? :yikes:, click me now and click me quick (http://www.tonykempster.co.uk/confmiles.htm) :thumbs


That site helps cheers mate...:thumbs

[monty]

No Excuses for Kidderminster last night :Blacklistnonono: , they only had a short trip of 86 miles.

[Mug OUFC]

:laugh :thumbs

That site is brilliant

I should also say that weymouth might not be that far in miles from a lot of places but access is all via A roads and it can be a real slog to get to.

You are going to want to know which teams are part time now arent you, and Im not sure myself.

[monty]

:laugh :thumbs

That site is brilliant

I should also say that weymouth might not be that far in miles from a lot of places but access is all via A roads and it can be a real slog to get to.

You are going to want to know which teams are part time now arent you, and Im not sure myself.

Yes! I would like to know .. :)

[Mug OUFC]

its not an easy question to answer

fair few teams have both PT and FT, some teams are predominantly PT some teams are predominantly FT, for example salisbury have only a handful of full timers while someone like burton will have only a handful of part timers

and its not info thats easily accessible

teams that in my opinion probably have at least some, but possibly not many part time players are:

burton
crawley
histon
salisbury
ebbsfleet
woking
farsley
altrincham
stafford
droylsden
northwich

[Mug OUFC]

A tricky day again tomorrow

I am going to try the draw acca again, it paid last time there was tight games, worth another go.

Altrncham v Rushden 3.4
Ebbsfleet v torquay 3.4
Exeter v Grays 3.4
York v Histon 3.2

I had stafford/FGR down too but montys sheet is picking FGR so ive left that out

6 doubles @ 1 point
1 acca @ 0.25 points
stanjames

2 draws in makes a profit.

[monty]

Saturday, 06 October 2007
Altrincham v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Burton Albion v Salisbury, 15:00
Cambridge Utd v Halifax, 15:00 :ermmm
Droylsden v Oxford Utd, 17:15 :ermmm
Ebbsfleet United v Torquay, 15:00
Exeter v Grays Athletic, 15:00
Kidderminster v Crawley Town, 15:00
Stafford Rangers v Forest Green, 15:00 :happyboun
Stevenage v Aldershot, 15:00
Weymouth v Northwich, 15:00 :happyboun
York v Histon, 15:00
Woking v Farsley Celtic, 19:45


2/4 this week :mover

[Mug OUFC]

1/4 for me :headbange

[monty]

Tuesday, 09 October 2007
Aldershot v Ebbsfleet United, 19:45 (D)
Altrincham v Burton Albion, 19:45 (C)
Cambridge Utd v Rushden & D'monds, 19:45
Crawley Town v Histon, 19:45
Droylsden v Farsley Celtic, 19:45
Exeter v Salisbury, 19:45
Forest Green v Northwich, 19:45 (A)
Grays Athletic v Weymouth, 19:45
Kidderminster v Halifax, 19:45
Stevenage v Woking, 19:45 (B)
York v Stafford Rangers, 19:45


Here is the strongest pics for the midweek games. :)

Mug OUFC

I know you like to pick draws in this league? and I've noticed that there is 4 games where the ratings have come out very, very similar to each other. As there similar it could be possibly suggesting draws in those games? They are Crawley v's Histon, Droylsden v's Farsley Celtic, Gray's Ath v's Weymouth and York v's Stafford Rangers.

Good Luck with whatever you pick....:D

[Mug OUFC]

That looks good to me monty :thumbs

Will check team news tomorrow to ensure there are no showstoppers in there

Odds

Aldershot 1.75
burton 2
Forest Green 1.44 *ALARM BELLS*
Stevenage 1.5

How we going to bet this then *itches chin*

[monty]

That looks good to me monty :thumbs

Will check team news tomorrow to ensure there are no showstoppers in there

Odds

Aldershot 1.75
burton 2
Forest Green 1.44 *ALARM BELLS*
Stevenage 1.5

How we going to bet this then *itches chin*


:mover ... I've been thinking the same thing all day, what is the best way to bet on these teams? :doh

[Mug OUFC]

OK... what would merlin do :doh

[Mug OUFC]

Merlin would do trebles and a 4-fold

In the team news, the only big negative i can find is that aldershots 9 goal top scorer john grant is expected to miss out against ebbsfleet. Ebbsfleet are a real good at home/poor away team and i would expect aldershot to win this, but with their top scorer out and with the monty sheet only giving it a 'D' rating, thats enough for me to skip it.

The 1.44 on forest green does scare me, as previously discussed i think they are the sort of team who will win as underdogs but not as favourites. I have also proved that teams going off at 1.4ish or less are no value in this league. However FGR are in good form while northwich are in crisis and its an 'A' pick on the monty sheet so Ill just clench my buttocks and take it.

Im going to play these as a small stake treble I think. Not worth playing them as singles or doubles as you are losing money if burton fail.

I therefore propose:
Burton 1.83
FGR 1.4
Stevenage 1.53
4 point treble @ 3.9

[monty]

You're starting to put me off FGR......:yikes:
.
.
.
.
.
No... I'm only joking mate..:laugh that looks a good price for the treble...:thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

Would have been a better price yesterday, keep meaning to take advantage of early prices, but you havent got the benefit of team news then and that is a bit scary in this league.

[monty]

Tuesday, 09 October 2007


Aldershot v Ebbsfleet United, 19:45 (D) :happyboun 2-0
Altrincham v Burton Albion, 19:45 (C) :ermmm 0-0
Cambridge Utd v Rushden & D'monds, 19:45
Crawley Town v Histon, 19:45
Droylsden v Farsley Celtic, 19:45
Exeter v Salisbury, 19:45
Forest Green v Northwich, 19:45 (A) :happyboun 4-1
Grays Athletic v Weymouth, 19:45
Kidderminster v Halifax, 19:45
Stevenage v Woking, 19:45 (B) :ermmm 1-1
York v Stafford Rangers, 19:45



2/4 tonight...:splapme

[Mug OUFC]

Urgh :ermmm

Stevenage ;fire

[monty]

Blue Square Premier

Oxford Utd v Torquay, 19:45 Thursday 11th Oct
Rushden & D'monds v Forest Green, 19:45 Friday12th Oct
Weymouth v Crawley Town, 19:45 Friday 12th Oct
Burton Albion v Aldershot, 15:00 Saturday 13th Oct
Ebbsfleet United v Droylsden, 13:00 Saturday 13th Oct (C) :happyboun
Northwich v Exeter, 17:15 Saturday 13th Oct (B):ermmm
Salisbury v Altrincham, 13:00 Saturday 13th Oct (D):ermmm
Stafford Rangers v Cambridge Utd, 15:00 Saturday 13th Oct (A):ermmm
Woking v York, 13:00 Saturday 13th Oct
Farsley Celtic v Oxford Utd, 15:00 Sunday 14th Oct
Histon v Kidderminster, 15:00 Sun 14th Oct
Torquay v Stevenage, 14:00 Sun

I've never really been one for betting on Away wins, so it looks like a Home win double for me on Saturday, although it all depends on the team news later in the week.

The current price for this double is: 2.54 @ Coral

[Mug OUFC]

Im not keen on Salisbury. Lost 4 on the trot and have a few players missing.

Probably just take ebbsfleet. I need a winner.

[Mug OUFC]

Before next bet:

BET ANALYSIS
Won 13
Lost 13
Total 26
Strike Rate 50%
Total Staked 95.88
Profit(loss) 26.12
Yield 27%


This weekend:
EBBSFLEET v Droylsden
Last weekend Droylsden got their first win ever in the conference beating a ******* ******S oxford side who are in crisis. They were brought back down to earth with a bump midweek however with a 3-0 reverse against fellow relegation candidates farsley celtic. Best player Jody Banim is doubtful according to unreliabile BBC. Without him surely they cannot beat ebbsfleet who are an excellent home side (5-0-2) and beat leaders torquay LTO at home.

8 points home win 1.53

[Merlin]

Before next bet:

BET ANALYSIS
Won 13
Lost 13
Total 26
Strike Rate 50%
Total Staked 95.88
Profit(loss) 26.12
Yield 27%


This weekend:
EBBSFLEET v Droylsden
Last weekend Droylsden got their first win ever in the conference beating a ******* ******S oxford side who are in crisis. They were brought back down to earth with a bump midweek however with a 3-0 reverse against fellow relegation candidates farsley celtic. Best player Jody Banim is doubtful according to unreliabile BBC. Without him surely they cannot beat ebbsfleet who are an excellent home side (5-0-2) and beat leaders torquay LTO at home.

8 points home win 1.53


Its looking good at 2-0 with 5 mins to go...nice one...C...

[Mug OUFC]

Im not keen on Salisbury. Lost 4 on the trot and have a few players missing.

Probably just take ebbsfleet. I need a winner.


Sweet :D

[Mug OUFC]

OK

Halifax v Grays tonight
Halifax had been going well but have struggled up front with injuries to strikers last few games and have lost form accordingly.
Unlike merlin, Grays are tough to penetrate at the back, however they also cant score for sh...toffee and have lost 3 of 3.

Grays won this fixture last season. Halifax won the season before.

Tough game to call really and wont be much of a spectacle with two teams out of form and no real goal threat. However there is sod all else to bet on tonight....So:

I did want Grays +0.5 goals which was available at 2 earlier today, but this price has now gone. So I will steal merlins approach and will go with

3.33 points GRAYS @ 4 (b365)
1.9 points 1-1 @ 7 (b365)
1.1 points 0-0 @ 12.5 (betfair before commission)
Total stakes 6.33 points

COME ON THE GRAVELMEN


BET ANALYSIS TO DATE NOT INCL THIS BET
Won 14
Lost 13
Total 27
Strike Rate 52%
Total Staked 103.88
Profit(loss) 30.36
Yield 29%

[Merlin]

OK

Unlike merlin, Grays are tough to penetrate at the back,

Oi...you faggot

[Merlin]

What kinda price you got there on the correct score…..better than nothing I suppose…

[Mug OUFC]

:butthead:

It took me whole minutes of works time to find those prices ;fire

[monty]

Halifax Town v's Gray's Athletic

I'm going for the draw tonight. 2 pts - 12/5 (3.40)@W-Hills

Good Luck .... :thumbs

[Skittle]

Have some of the draw myself @ 3.65 on Betfair.

[monty]

Halifax Town v's Gray's Athletic

I'm going for the draw tonight. 2 pts - 12/5 (3.40)@W-Hills

Good Luck .... :thumbs

Full-Time Score:

Halifax Town 0 Gray's Athletic 0 . . . :)

2pts Staked
6.80 Returned
Profit: 4.80pts . . . . . :D

Looks like profit for everyone on here tonight, well done guys....:thumbs

[Merlin]

Nice one ..M....where you been?......you eloped with Skittle :laugh

[monty]

Cheers Mate...:thumbs

I've been decorating....:mad: the wife wants the whole house done before xmas....:yikes: ::swear


No Chance....:ermmm

[Mug OUFC]

:yikes: How bigs your house

[monty]

It's big enough when you hate painting.

[Skittle]

Use a very big paint brush, available from most DIY stores :bouncey:dung.

[Mug OUFC]

Im thinking aldershot and cambridge tomorrow monty me old china. Prices are pony though. Any thoughts?

[Mug OUFC]

Right well Im going for it. Im confident, which is a bad sign :ooo

Team news is negative for both halifax (at aldershot) and salisbury (at cambridge)

Prices are skinny so not worth backing as singles, got to be a double.

10 point double :yikes: aldershot (1.57) and cambridge (1.73)

[monty]

Mug OUFC

Sorry about being late with these picks, I've been really busy this week.

English Blue Square Premier

Saturday, 20 October 2007

Aldershot v Halifax, 15:00
Altrincham v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Cambridge Utd v Salisbury, 15:00
Crawley Town v Stafford Rangers, 15:00
Droylsden v Histon, 15:00
Exeter v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Forest Green v Farsley Celtic, 15:00
Grays Athletic v Northwich, 15:00
Kidderminster v Weymouth, 15:00
Oxford Utd v Woking, 15:00

Sunday, 21 October 2007

York v Torquay, 19:15

Good Luck . . . . :thumbs

[Merlin]

Right well Im going for it. Im confident, which is a bad sign :ooo

Team news is negative for both halifax (at aldershot) and salisbury (at cambridge)

Prices are skinny so not worth backing as singles, got to be a double.

10 point double :yikes: aldershot (1.57) and cambridge (1.73)

Consider this you pleb...


10 Point Doublé Returns = 27.16

5 Point Single Cambridge and 5 Point Doublé with Aldershot returns = 22.23
Insurance = 8.65 returned for Cambiudge win only..

[Mug OUFC]

Merlin. I have considered your alternative proposal.

Conclusion: I am a pleb :D

Ah well, bet placed now, lesson learnt, what will be will be, que sera sera, no point crying over spilt milk, dont look back in anger, etc

[Mug OUFC]

Mug OUFC

Sorry about being late with these picks, I've been really busy this week.

English Blue Square Premier

Saturday, 20 October 2007

Aldershot v Halifax, 15:00
Altrincham v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Cambridge Utd v Salisbury, 15:00
Crawley Town v Stafford Rangers, 15:00
Droylsden v Histon, 15:00
Exeter v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Forest Green v Farsley Celtic, 15:00
Grays Athletic v Northwich, 15:00
Kidderminster v Weymouth, 15:00
Oxford Utd v Woking, 15:00

Sunday, 21 October 2007

York v Torquay, 19:15

Good Luck . . . . :thumbs


No aldershot. Bugger. Never mind, team news is a big positive on that one.

Right Im off to watch oxfords remaining fit eleven players draw again. Good luck today everyone :thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

Cambridge ::swear

[monty]

Mug OUFC

Sorry about being late with these picks, I've been really busy this week.

English Blue Square Premier

Saturday, 20 October 2007

Aldershot v Halifax, 15:00
Altrincham v Ebbsfleet United, 15:00
Cambridge Utd v Salisbury, 15:00 :ermmm 1-1
Crawley Town v Stafford Rangers, 15:00 :ermmm 1-1
Droylsden v Histon, 15:00 :happyboun 0-1
Exeter v Rushden & D'monds, 15:00
Forest Green v Farsley Celtic, 15:00 :ermmm 2-2
Grays Athletic v Northwich, 15:00 :happyboun 3-1
Kidderminster v Weymouth, 15:00
Oxford Utd v Woking, 15:00

Sunday, 21 October 2007

York v Torquay, 19:15 :happyboun 0-1

Good Luck . . . . :thumbs



Only 3/6 this week...:mad: it wouldn't have been so bad if Crawley hadn't blew it in the 90min...:rolleyes:

I sort of feel as if I'm getting :censored: robbed from this League...:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

Well, as we both agreed monty, it is tough to profit from this league :splapme

Not sure if i fancy torquay much tonight at the price, either :doh

[monty]

Well, as we both agreed monty, it is tough to profit from this league :splapme

Not sure if i fancy torquay much tonight at the price, either :doh

I'll probably take the draw tonight.

[Mug OUFC]

Over 2.5 goals was priced at 1.5 last night and it finished 0-1 :yikes:

BET ANALYSIS
Won 15
Lost 16
Total 31
Strike Rate 48%
Total Staked 125.88
Profit(loss) 37.16
Yield 30%

[monty]

i went with the draw . . . . :(

[Mug OUFC]

Should have been a draw :)

[monty]

I watched the game last night and your right Mug, it should have been a draw.

[monty]

Thurs 1st Nov

Rushden & D'monds v Oxford Utd, 19:45

------------------------------------------------------

Friday 2nd Nov

Weymouth v Aldershot, 19:45

------------------------------------------------------

Saturday 3rd Nov

Burton Albion v Kidderminster, 15:00
Ebbsfleet United v Forest Green, 15:00
Halifax v Crawley Town, 15:00
Histon v Altrincham, 15:00
Northwich v Stevenage , 15:00
Salisbury v Grays Athletic, 15:00
Stafford Rangers v Exeter , 15:00
Torquay v Cambridge Utd, 15:00
Woking v Droylsden, 15:00
------------------------------------------------------

Sunday 4th Nov

Farsley Celtic v York, 19:15

[Mug OUFC]

Cheers monty

Not exactly an inspiring set of fixtures this week is it

I expect oxford will achieve yet another draw tomorrow. We don't draw nearly as many away as we do at home, but rushden are poor at home. We have hardly any strikers fit and the average age of our first XI is now about 14.

[monty]

It's probably the worst set of picks since I started posting. I honestly don't feel confident about any of them, so maybe it would be best to have a week off?

[Mug OUFC]

What an utterly ridiculous suggestion :laugh

[monty]

You know me to well . . . :laugh

[monty]

Thurs 1st Nov

Rushden & D'monds v Oxford Utd, 19:45

------------------------------------------------------

Friday 2nd Nov

Weymouth v Aldershot, 19:45

------------------------------------------------------

Saturday 3rd Nov

Burton Albion v Kidderminster, 15:00
Ebbsfleet United v Forest Green, 15:00
Halifax v Crawley Town, 15:00
Histon v Altrincham, 15:00
Northwich v Stevenage , 15:00 :happyboun 0-2
Salisbury v Grays Athletic, 15:00
Stafford Rangers v Exeter , 15:00 :happyboun 1-5
Torquay v Cambridge Utd, 15:00
Woking v Droylsden, 15:00 :ermmm 1-1
------------------------------------------------------

Sunday 4th Nov

Farsley Celtic v York, 19:15



2/3 this week guys, I can't complain as they all looked hard games.

[Mug OUFC]

2 away wins - profit :thumbs

Wondering about york today...farsleys manager left in the week