Merlin Footy Bets (Thread 2)

[monty]

I'm sure my sheet will come good again, it had Dundalk as the only home win in their division, the rest of the games came out as away wins.

[Merlin]

Nautico? I hope that one comes in for you.... :spinning

It looks very much like they will go back down…but over the years….they have shown great …..um……um…..um…..escape artist tricks…:laughs….

And they usually win a couple of away games at big odds……its betting at the right time….its a longshot….they got hammered last game…but at 10.00…is worth a very small sniff…for me at least…:laugh

[monty]

It might be worth noting? that its picked Limerick away at Shelbourne. And Limerick are a big price around 11/5 could be worth taking a chance on the handicap.

[monty]

It looks very much like they will go back down…but over the years….they have shown great …..um……um…..um…..escape artist tricks…:laughs….

And they usually win a couple of away games at big odds……its betting at the right time….its a longshot….they got hammered last game…but at 10.00…is worth a very small sniff…for me at least…:laugh


I like doing things like that as well but its nearly always tiny stakes, usually what i call fun bets. Great when they win...:D

[Merlin]

Besides the Monty bet pick...it may pay to put the others in small doubles or trebles......will be a good payday if it cops.......teeny weeny bets though...

[Merlin]

I like doing things like that as well but its nearly always tiny stakes, usually what i call fun bets. Great when they win...:D


Sure...I could have done a fun bet and said nothing....but I POST EVERY BET I MAKE...:yikes:

[monty]

The Irish Premier is the opposite from the 1st, the only Away its picking is Bohemians to away at Bray, the rest of the games are coming out favouring the home teams, apart from Sligo match it's coming out as a draw against Derry-C

[monty]

Sure...I could have done a fun bet and said nothing....but I POST EVERY BET I MAKE...:yikes:

That's what I like about you Merlin, You always post what teams your taking. I hate the bullshit that some people post on other websites, there is one person who picks teams and then seems to cover every possible outcome in his bets by adding this, that, and the next thing, at the end of the day he has covered every possibility in the match, just so he can by say I told you so, but WTF was the main bet? WTF was his bet? Its too confusing at times.

Do you know what I mean that sort of post really gets to me mate, and it happens on just about every forum I've ever been on.

RANT OVER...:D

[Merlin]

Dead right..mate...and thats why people will claim their winning win in fact they are up the creek.....if I am up the creek...I will tell you...or rather you will see it...:laugh

[Merlin]

Anyone taken a bet in the Santos game..here is text and áudio commentary....in Portuguese...:yikes:

http://globoesporte.globo.com/ESP/Futebol/TempoReal/0,,TEP16382-8646,00.html

[Skittle]

Well gentlemen, you were right about Dundalk, I just didn't have the faith. I'll still wait for another win before I get involved again. I'm just too cautious at times.

Didn't get anywhere near my wish for the CL draw, but at least it's easy for us to go through.

Last minute goal for Blackburn saved my -2 Asian bet. Saw most of the game and felt they should have won by more.

Will have a gander at the Irish choices later.

Merlin...........the QoS game for Raith could be awkward for choosing a scoreline.

[Merlin]

Merlin...........the QoS game for Raith could be awkward for choosing a scoreline.


In that case...S....I will wait for you to pick yours first....:laugh

[Skittle]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.............

Always do mine 5 am ish Saturday.

[monty]

Merlin

I'm going to go for St Patricks to beat Waterford Utd at home tomorrow. I know there form hasn't been great during the last few weeks, but my sheet is picking them to win and it's also picking Cork City to win at home against Galway Utd. As for a Monty bet I'm not sure what one to side with, the rating for St Patricks is much better, so I think it will be them.

I'm going to go for it mate, I did mention that the St Patricks form has been very poor recently, but I still think St Patricks are good enough to win this home match, well I hope they can....:laugh

[Merlin]

Agree entirely.........its my main bet today , tôo.....looked at the teams etc last night...and Waterford have some key players missing.....This is a great opportunity for Pats....

Last night…Santos won easily…..after going 1-0 down……

Nautico were 1-0 down……Vasco had a player sent off right at the end of the first half…Nautico then equalized……….and it was looking good for them……in the second half (up to the last 10 minutes)….Nautico had 26 chances, or 26 plays in the Vasco area…..and couldn’t score….Vasco only had 5 plays…..:yikes:…

However, the last 10 minutes Nautico fell to pieces and conceded another 3 goals….:laugh…….

They are going down, down, down……

[Merlin]

FRIDAY BET
………………

St Patricks v Waterford


HOME WIN @ 1.53

8 POINTS

(This is also a MONTY BET – see Monty Bets Thread….)

[monty]

Agree entirely.........its my main bet today , tôo.....looked at the teams etc last night...and Waterford have some key players missing.....This is a great opportunity for Pats....

Last night…Santos won easily…..after going 1-0 down……

Nautico were 1-0 down……Vasco had a player sent off right at the end of the first half…Nautico then equalized……….and it was looking good for them……in the second half (up to the last 10 minutes)….Nautico had 26 chances, or 26 plays in the Vasco area…..and couldn’t score….Vasco only had 5 plays…..:yikes:…

However, the last 10 minutes Nautico fell to pieces and conceded another 3 goals….:laugh…….

They are going down, down, down……


Hi M

I noticed the Nautico result this morning, but as you said its worth taking this longshot, as they usually have 2-3 big priced away results in the previous seasons. How many games are played in their league each season? Say you had 40 games with 20 away matches? going on past results you should at least cover your stakes, and maybe make a little profit if you stick to level bets? Is this what your trying Merlin?

Do you bet Nautico every time they play a game away? if yes have they won any big priced games yet?

[Skittle]

Pats looks good, seems like Waterford will have a few missing as well.

[monty]

Pats looks good, seems like Waterford will have a few missing as well.

Hi Skittle

Your doing really well with your picks on G.G, I hope St Patricks keep your run going...:thumbs Have you been keeping a record of your picks to show your profit and loss? I had a great run last year, well you know that anyway but unfortunately I didn't keep a record of my tips posted on G.G.

[Merlin]

Hi M

I noticed the Nautico result this morning, but as you said its worth taking this longshot, as they usually have 2-3 big priced away results in the previous seasons. How many games are played in their league each season? Say you had 40 games with 20 away matches? going on past results you should at least cover your stakes, and maybe make a little profit if you stick to level bets? Is this what your trying Merlin?

Do you bet Nautico every time they play a game away? if yes have they won any big priced games yet?


The following 2 away wins were shocks.....happened as recently as July (last month).....

They were around 7/1 when they beat Corinthians…..and 9/1 when they bear Santos…

Corinthians SP 0 - 3 Nautico Recife

Santos Sao Paulo 1 - 2 Nautico Recife

The follwing away win was not a shock...they were areound 11/4

America Natal 1 - 5 Nautico Recife

Played 22 Games – 18 to play....I reckon there are 2 away wins left....anything around 9/1 is worth taking...

[MaxySerb]

St Patrick 2:0!
Well done guys!

[Merlin]

DID WE WIN...DID WE WIN......?

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CORSE WE DID….:laugh…Yahoo….

[Merlin]

Brazilian Serie B game at 12.30am Kick-off, UK time...

PORTUGUESA V IPATINGA

Gonna go for the home win..both teams are vying for promotion into Serie A….Portuguesa have the edge currently…(over todays rival)…

Portuguesa haven’t lost at home for 9 games…undefeated last 5 (all games)…

Price is 1.57 with BET 365 – or 1.50 with Paddy Power and Blue Square…

Wont go in heavy…as don’t want to lose all todays profit…

So just a 3 POINT home win…notwithstanding, it is Serie B….:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

well done monty and merlin tonight :happyboun

[monty]

well done monty and merlin tonight :happyboun

Thank's Mate...:thumbs

[Merlin]

well done monty and merlin tonight :happyboun

Aye...aye...Avator change...trying to reinvent yourself young man....:laugh

[Skittle]

Hi Skittle

Your doing really well with your picks on G.G, I hope St Patricks keep your run going...:thumbs Have you been keeping a record of your picks to show your profit and loss? I had a great run last year, well you know that anyway but unfortunately I didn't keep a record of my tips posted on G.G.

The only real record is what has been posted. I'll get around to keeping a copy and putting up a profit margin, there will be no 'loss' figure.

[monty]

Merlin.... I'm going to have a go at Limerick +0.5 on the Asian Handcap the price is around 1.80, I'm not confident enough to make this a "Monty bet" but I was a bit shocked that they gubbed Dundalk 4-1 last week, so I think it's worth a bet anyway.

Catch up with you later tonight, as I'll be away most of today. :)

[Mug OUFC]

Aye...aye...Avator change...trying to reinvent yourself young man....:laugh

i found out how to do custom avatars :D

^ This one is my puppy :bouncey

[monty]

The Irish Premier is the opposite from the 1st, the only Away its picking is Bohemians to away at Bray, the rest of the games are coming out favouring the home teams, apart from Sligo match it's coming out as a draw against Derry-C


Well Merlin Mate

The Irish ratings got it spot on as Bohemians did win away at a nice price 6/5 and the Sligo Rovers v's Derry City match did finish as a draw.
I can't be to disappointed with the Irish scores this weekend, as my ratings did pick a few good winners like St Pats, Dundalk, Cobh and the two games already mentioned above, but what the F~~k happened to the two highly rated Away picks of Limerick and Finn Harps? Why is my ratings picking out some cracking results :D and getting other games wrong? :yikes: Any ideas to what could be going? :headbange

This is why the Monty bets are usually Home Wins, as they are always much more reliable. And I have two Monty Picks for next week matches in the Irish first division. Anyway I'm off out again catch up with you all tomorrow....:D

[Merlin]

On balance mate...your picks are superb…….cant get them al right…:laugh….

Your sheet, especially, picks some value bets…which over a season would yield an enviable profit…a profit that most people can only dream about…

All leagues have elements of unpredictably , mate…or their wouldn’t be any layers…:yikes:…

Mind you, the Irish League (seems to every year) have some sort of result crisis, or a period of unexpected results…..dont know why…could be the level of soccer….fitness…don’t forget it’s a summer league…..with odd breaks/gaps in between… and they are in the home run now….lots of teams have injuries and such…