Simple Novice Chase system (81.1% SR)

[wb]

This is a simple system to be used on Novice Chases. The strike rate is 81.1% and the ROI is 8.7% (2000-2007). The profit to SP is £1790 to £100 stakes over the past seven years.

Rules:


Horse is priced 1/2 or less in NON HANDICAP Novice chase races
Race has 5 or more runners


Year … No. Bets … Wins ………. Strike Rate ………. Return

2000 ………. 27 ………. 23 ………. 85.20% ………. 113.30%
2001 ………. 29 ………. 23 ………. 79.30% ………. 108.40%
2002 ………. 20 ………. 17 ………. 85.00% ………. 113.20%
2003 ………. 54 ………. 45 ………. 83.30% ………. 111.50%
2004 ………. 27 ………. 19 ………. 70.40% ………. 93.10%
2005 ………. 6 ……….... 6 ………. 100.00% ………. 135.20%
2006 ………. 24 ………. 19 ………. 79.20% ………. 106.00%
2007 ………. 19 ………. 15 ………. 78.90% ………. 107.00%

As you can see there's not a huge amount of bets per year, but it's fairly consistent with only one losing year in 2004. Compounded staking (using a percentage of the bank) would help boost the profit.

The 1/2 or less rule ensures a very high SR, and excluding races with four our less runners gets rid of a lot of the races with extremely low odds without the need for a second price rule.

[Win2Win]

I get a different result with 2001 also showing a loss, and less qualifiers, SR of 78% whether you use SP or F/C SP, and only around 10-14pts profit for all those years. On average 15 qualifers a year. 98 & 99 also showed losses.

Which data source you using Mr WB?

It's still profitable long term (very long term) though. :) Not really worth the effort but an A+ compared to Vegy's work :D

[sparkyminer]

Are you using Irish racing as well Keith. I suspect Wayne might be.

[Win2Win]

He never said, and as we deal with mainly ENGLISH racing here.....:thumbs

We all know the Irish have second rate horses, so we just ignore them :ooo

[mathare]

He never said, and as we deal with mainly ENGLISH racing here.....:thumbsSo you filter out Bangor, Hamilton, Musselburgh, Ayr and Perth from your results do you? :wink

[Win2Win]

So you filter out Bangor, Hamilton, Musselburgh, Ayr and Perth from your results do you? :wink

FTAO Mat: Click Here (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/mainly) :thumbs

[wb]

That's from the AM database. The data is based on actual favs, not f/c favs and is based on UK racing only.

I should have said that it is NON HANDICAP novice chases only. That's probably where the difference lies!

[mathare]

FTAO Mat: Click Here :D

[Win2Win]

I used non-handicaps, at SP, Great British races only :)

[Vic]

One cause for the difference is that the AM site goes Jan - Dec, and RSB season to season - anyone recall Essexboi getting many red blobs over a similar difference :D

[Win2Win]

He was a bit of a retard......so is WB but he's Irish :D

:peeky

[wb]

One cause for the difference is that the AM site goes Jan - Dec, and RSB season to season - anyone recall Essexboi getting many red blobs over a similar difference :D


I've considered that though and it's still very profitable. Even though AM uses individual years, it's not hard to figure out that 2001 and 2002 for example, can be combined and most of the bets would be from october to march. AM also gives a breakdown by the month so you can see which part of the season the bets occur in.

Besides, it's a long term system spanning several seasons, so It doesn't matter if it's broken into season or year. I've 'manually' checked it by season by using the year/month function and it works.

[Vic]

Was just giving a possible reason Wayne why Keiths stats give a different result to yours :thumbs Good luck if it's another weapon in your armoury

[wb]

Was just giving a possible reason Wayne why Keiths stats give a different result to yours :thumbs Good luck if it's another weapon in your armoury


Hi Vic, not questioning your input at all, in fact it's a very valid point and something that many people don't consider when using AM.

In this case, the system spans season to season and year to year, so it doesn't really matter how it's split. It's definitely something to remember though, and something everyone using AM should consider. It's the same with the all weather, which crosses over into the new year. The flat turf works ok as it runs mid-year.