RP Explained

[Matunty]

Does anyone have a system which uses RPR? Mine does and I adjusted it slightly following advice from sites including this one. I would like to share it with someone who may have a similar system and compare notes. At the heart of the system is a one bet a day principle. I have had over 150 bets using the system and am scoring a 37.38 SR. This can't be all luck and there must be some features which work. I would like one of the pros out there to criticise my system in order for me to improve it. over to you for questions.

Incidentally, has anyone done a piece of statistical analysis of the chances of picking an odds against winner and the relationship with number of runners in a race; or in other words, what is the optimum number of horses in a race to maximise the chances of selecting and odds against winner 6? 8? 12? anyone ever monitred this over time?

Best wishes all

Steve

[Matunty]

also ..... does anyone out there know a bet to win system that has proven successful overtime and yields SR near to 40%?

also ..... I am now betting 2% and, on advice, have started increasing the stake away from a levl stake by using a multiplier of 1.1 each on each stake. Does anyone have a view?

[Win2Win]

Incidentally, has anyone done a piece of statistical analysis of the chances of picking an odds against winner and the relationship with number of runners in a race; or in other words, what is the optimum number of horses in a race to maximise the chances of selecting and odds against winner 6? 8? 12? anyone ever monitred this over time?

A number of us here use software that can pull out info like this in seconds. You'll find that variable on it's own though is pretty useless.



Does anyone have a system which uses RPR?


RPR is one of the most unreliable figures around, the most successful is VFM in RSB. Even the Topseed rating out perform the RPR, and that is scary, as speed figures are usually more useless than handicap ratings.

[plater]

Keith,

Regarding the RSB VFM, if you backed the (I assume) top rated VFM blind over the last 12 month's, would you be in profit to level stakes or Odds+??.

I have been playing around with Private Ratings from a subscription service (top rated only) and the figures over the last 12 months are crap for backing blindly, 10,000 bets -950pts -9.08% POI, now by simply filtering the odds to 2/1- 4/1 using Odds+ (around 7-8%), we get 4,000 bets +151pts +3.83% POI.

And it's been the same'ish for the last 3 years, can it be that simple :doh, but is the 1100pts:yikes: swing data mining using just the one filter??

[Win2Win]

Regarding the RSB (http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/autolink.php?id=7&script=showthread&forumid=129) VFM, if you backed the (I assume) top rated VFM blind over the last 12 month's, would you be in profit to level stakes or Odds+??.

Not these days, as the authorities have piddled about with the racing so much, especially the handicaps that VFM used to do so well at. However, the Top Ranking VFM, although producing losses if you backed them blindly, is still the best around. You need to be aware though that the value of it over the last 3 years, is not the same as the previous years, so you need to treat them both as seperate variables.

VFM is still a good starting variable, but should only be used in a few systems in a portfolio as with any variables.

Test your 'system' on the previous 3 years and see what it does.

[plater]

Thank's Boss, did you get my mail the other day ??

[Win2Win]

Thank's Boss, did you get my mail the other day ??
:doh Erm.....Yes.....:doh I replied!! Has Mr Spam eaten it? :mad:

I'll sort it out later.

[Mavrick]

Even the Topseed rating out perform the RPR, and that is scary, as speed figures are usually more useless than handicap ratings.

Sometimes you do make me wonder how you make a living out of this game Keith.

:D

[Matunty]

Still confused about VFM. Is the software link the only way of getting to see these VFM ratings? Is there a bak of them or is it something which the software develops for each person over time?

Steve

[Win2Win]

VFM ratings are supplied by RSB, and they don't come cheap. They are used as the tissue for more bookies and pro's than the RP prices. If you want them, and all the other RSB info before the majority, it'll cost you £30 a day.

[Matunty]

Out of my league. But thanks anyway. Do you know of any other laternatives to ROR. Despite what you say, I am having success using RPR especially when the difference is 5 or above. So when a horse has an RPR of say 78 and the next horse has an RPR of 73 or less I back the horse, regardless of it price in the market. Saying that, there is a pattern emerging and a 5+ diff does tend to result in the fav but not always. Currently, using this system and having one NAP type bet a day (i.e. highest difference but not inc odds on) I am on a ROI of 35.3% Comment please: ....

[Matunty]

I have studied many of these posts and want to know if anyone is prepared to stick there nose out :icon_tong, and support it with evidence, what % stake yeilds the greatest profits and minimises loss over time:wiggle:. It seems to range from 10% to 5% (more common) to 2% and 1%. Is this related to the size of the ban::sweark or not and should it be varied as profits are experienced or there is a run of losing bets? :mad: Is this question in the right place?

PS how to you start a new thread!! :doh

Steve:splapme

[wb]

Matunty, you might be able to improve on your RPR betting by checking which races it does well in here:

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/master.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=Tipsters&category=Naps&story_id=838052&pill=0

For example......

if you check it by race type and put in the 2007 flat season, you will see that the RPR rating in claimers was profitable.
In fact, there were 85 winners from 243 bets (34%) and an LSP (level stakes profit) of +28.92

[Matunty]

I am studying system builder which 5 factors would you consider to be the most important in any system. Thanks

Steve

[Win2Win]

Read my Blog, it tells you :)

[Matunty]

I am reading it. The number of variables is now about 20. Is this ridiculous? What is happening, by default, is that as the variables increase the number of bets is reducing. Logical I suppose. I realise I am know to this but searching for a profit maiking system is like looking for the Holy Grail. It probably exists and I do think that each time I shape my system I am getting closer. When that 5 to 1 winner comes in cos the system 'selected' it , the feeling is great!

[Win2Win]

I've got 100's of profitable systems, so have a few folk on here. Takes a lot of time & experience.

The number of variables is irrelevant as long as it produces long term profits.

[Matunty]

Thanks for your help. Your's a star. Your system builder is really good

[Matunty]

Which variables are most important over others. I am not sure that your builder articles really answer this question. How would a pro rank these or is that just way off. I realise the variables vary within themselves depending on their relationship with other variations; so, ground effects, distance and weight. Most variables are NOT independent of others. However, the basic question remains. If I wanted to build a system, how would you prioritise (weiht) these 'basic' variables. 1. Time elapsed since last race 2. Jockey 3. Course winner 4. Distance winner 5, RPR 6. OR 7. TS, 9. Length of race 10. trainer (in form?) 11. number of runners in the race 12. age of horses 13. prize money 14.Course 15. weather conditions??? There must be millions more. I just want someone to give me a rough idea of the relative weightings overall. I realise (from reading articles on here) that they vary in their importance to each other but is it reasonable to ask if the distance is more important a factor than the LTO position or weight?

Thanks for all reasonable responses

Steve (the obvious novice)

[Win2Win]

You can't really list variables in any order unless you know your starting point for a system you are designing, and no two are the same (what would be the point?). They also interact differently depending on the 'blend' you use, and with 1000's of possible variables it all comes down to experience, and learning everything you can from software like RSB over years so you know what influences what.

In short, your question has no answer. :)