PDA

View Full Version : Ayr 4.10 - A Very Vegy Analysis



vegyjones
13th July 2008, 23:27
Ayr 14 July 2008
4:10 RENAULT TRAFIC HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo,0-85) Winner £4,857.00 1m GOOD

7 run

1(3) 0551 Capucci 32 J H M Gosden 3 9-7t Robert Havlin
2(7) 01-707 Fitzroy Crossing 23 M Johnston 3 9-6 Greg Fairley
3(4) 21-046 Boy Blue 16 D W Barker 3 9-5 Tony Hamilton
4(6) 319-45 Resounding Glory 16 R A Fahey 3 9-4 Jamie Moriarty(3)
5(1) -48231 Ninefineirishmen 24 K R Burke 3 9-1p Darren Williams
6(5) 1-0677 Doon Haymer 16 Miss L A Perratt 3 8-12v Tom Eaves
7(2) 2-0496 Bavarian Nordic 9 Mrs A Duffield 3 8-9 Royston Ffrench

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Capucci, 5/1 Fitzroy Crossing, 6/1 Ninefineirishmen, 8/1 Resounding Glory, 10/1 Doon Haymer, 12/1 Boy Blue, 20/1 Bavarian Nordic.

Bavarian Nordic - Disappointed on all 4 starts in 2008. Easily overlooked.
Boy Blue - A course winner with no worries about the ground. Meets Resounding Glory on better terms, and chances if improving on latest effort. Capucci - Well backed on penultimate start when winning well at Newbury. Probably won't appreciate any rain, and won't like the ground on the softer side of good. Respected.
Doon Haymer - Would probably need it to flood overnight.
Fitzroy Crossing - Not a bad effort on firt try ovber a mile. Possible improver. One of the more likely ones.
Ninefishermen - Better chance if the grounds was a bit firmer. One to rule out if the rain comes. Respected.
Resounding Glory - A hold up horse, so a small field may not be beneficial and meets a couple of these on worse terms than last time.

No way I would be on Capucci at the forecasted price. Probably woirth taking him on with the Mark Johnstone runner if you can get better than 5-1

Other opinions welcome.

evenstephen
14th July 2008, 11:34
I have to agree, Capucci at odds-on is a very poor price considering he is going up in class and up against horses who have raced respectively in better competiton.

Fitzroy Crossing showed improved form last time and should do better in this grade but I don't have 100% confidence that he will win just yet. The one that makes some appeal is Resounding Glory who has beaten Boy Blue and Doon Haymer last time at Newcastle and finished 5th to Stevie Thunder who ran very well at Newmarket at the weekend.

Resounding Glory at 3.5 on the place market and Fitzroy Crossing at 4.4 could both be worth a small investment and if one gets placed then you make a profit. :)

Win2Win
14th July 2008, 15:39
Resounding Glory is a lay if you can get less than 10.5, unless he's found an extra leg since his last run! (As some donkey done last week and reversed a previous formline by 12L !!!!)

vegyjones
14th July 2008, 18:00
Ah, well, I didn't get the winner (although I gave him a positive mention :D ) but hope I managed to swerve anyone off the favourite!