Irish Flat System

[grantcharman]

Right, having read through the Boss' blog on here, at how to research a system properly, I thought I'd have a go.

With the impending start of the flat season I thought I'd look at Irish flat racing using a database and system builder on "another website". I've come across a few inconsistencies between that website and "yet another website" so I'm not 100% confident in the quality of the data. I don't have access to RSB though, so this is the best I have at the moment.

Based on this information I worked through a set of logical variables and filters (odds, lto etc) and have come up with a system that appears to show the following:

Period Bets Wins SP Points Strike Rate
2008 73 24 20.66 32.88%
2007 58 19 5.61 32.76%
2006 84 24 3.31 28.57%
2005 100 37 38.93 37.00%
2004 71 19 0.76 26.76%
2003 77 27 26.26 35.06%

Which totals 463 runners since 2003, returning 32.4% strike rate and a LSP of 95 points, which seems ok to me. All these based on industry SP no account of better prices on exchanges.

The only thing I did to improve the profit which I cannot completely explain, was to eliminate two specific tracks which showed massive losses (every other track is positive or only slightly negative). One of these tracks is the Curragh and the higher quality of racing might explain the difference, the other is Galway and I have no suggestion as to why that might be, but they were sore thumbs in the data so I've removed them. The system was still profitable with them in, but becomes much more interesting without them.

I've then downloaded all the qualifiers in that period and looked at staking plans (LS, plateau LS, 1%, 2%, 3% and SQRT) and none of them bust (incredibly) and the most aggressive (SQRT) never gets into trouble and returns ROI of over 16% and, from a starting bank of £100, gives profit of £1865.

I don't totally trust the data source, so am going to try it for March, April and maybe May on a Level Stakes of £1 (big spender me :D). If the SR etc looks like confirming the results then I'll switch to the SQRT staking plan at a convenient point.

Thought I'd post qualifiers here when I get them so people can laugh at my progress :spinning

Hopefully this might prove to be a good system and will confirm both my approach and the accuracy of the data source.

Comments, laughter and finger pointing welcome.

[counterfeit]

Sounds interesting - I've always thought the Betfair odds on Irish racing could be exploited if you had a good system but there seems to be so few Irish systems around.

[grantcharman]

First qualifier of the year for this runs on 27th March. Slight amendment to what I said above, I want to take advantage of better odds on the exchanges so the stake will be £2 level to start with.

27th March qualifier
9.25 Dundalk Designated Decoy

EDIT:
Additional qualifier on updated forecast prices
9.00 Dundalk First Symphony

I'll wait to post until the morning in future!

[wb]

Best of luck - I've a few systems on the go for Irish racing and find that there can be good value out there as not a lot of people are trying systems out on the Irish meetings.

[grantcharman]

Thanks WB, I thought there should be. My big concern is that the testing of this is at SP, whereas I need to use Forecasts and I've no idea how accurate the FC's are! I use Betfair/Timeform forecasts...any thoughts on their accuracy - or alternative irish forecasts (not RP as I can't access their website)?

Fingers crossed for this over the coming months anyway.

[wb]

Thanks WB, I thought there should be. My big concern is that the testing of this is at SP, whereas I need to use Forecasts and I've no idea how accurate the FC's are! I use Betfair/Timeform forecasts...any thoughts on their accuracy - or alternative irish forecasts (not RP as I can't access their website)?

Fingers crossed for this over the coming months anyway.

I'm not sure to be perfectly honest. I know that Keith ran a report for me some time back with the RP, and I think they were around 70% accurate.

[grantcharman]

27th March results
9.00 Dundalk First Symphony matched @ 3.25 3rd
9.25 Dundalk Designated Decoy matched @ 2.51 won:thumbs

Reasonable start, slightly up so can't complain. Will post selections next time they come up.

[grantcharman]

Two selections today at Leopardstown

3.30 Impossible Dream matched @ 6.5 7th
5.15 Timoca matched @ 4.8 6th

[grantcharman]

3rd April selections
7.00 Dundalk Morrigan matched @ 7.4 3rd
9.25 Dundalk Royal Entourage matched @ 3.6 2nd

Grr, close today !

[grantcharman]

6th April selections

5.45 Limerick Gracious Girl matched @ 8.8 11th
6.45 Limerick Kaitlins Joy matched @ 6.3 4th

[grantcharman]

Not sure it's worth a stats update given the dire performance so far, but...

Starting Bank £100
1 winner from 8 = 13% SR
Stakes all £1 LS
Profit/Loss -£11.13

It's all going swimmingly :omg:

[grantcharman]

One qualifier for 9th April
7.45 Tipperary Lord Rathvinden matched @ 6.2 won

[grantcharman]

Starting Bank £100
2 winners from 9 = 22% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss -£1.25

[grantcharman]

Qualifier for 12 April
3.25 Cork Gra Geal Mo Chroi

[grantcharman]

12 April result
Gra Geal Mo Chroi matched @ 4.96 won :thumbs

Starting Bank £100
3 winners from 10 = 30% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss +£6.27

[grantcharman]

17 April selections
7.25 Dundalk Concrete and Clay
7.55 Dundalk Royal Entourage

[grantcharman]

17 April results
7.25 Dundalk Concrete and Clay matched @ 4.9 14th :yikes:
7.55 Dundalk Royal Entourage matched @ 3.35 won

Starting Bank £100
4 winners from 12 = 33% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss +£8.74

[wb]

Top bombing :thumbs

[grantcharman]

Thanks wb, I'm pleased with how this is looking - hopefully it'll keep going - very early yet of course but the backtest is good so...

Two for 18th April

2.45 Naas Lord Rathvinden
4.50 Naas Fol Hollow

[jaceug]

Nice one grantcharman:spinning.. started these yesterday with a €10 bank:yikes:

[grantcharman]

18th April results

2.45 Naas Lord Rathvinden matched @ 3.25 won:thumbs
4.50 Naas Fol Hollow matched @ 3.6 won :thumbs

Starting Bank £100
6 winners from 14 = 43% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss +£17.95

I could have done with a few more systems like this one today, or else have been staking £200 instead of £2 :headbange

[grantcharman]

One for today, 19th April

3.25 Leopardstown Three Rocks matched @ 3.3 2nd

If they could teach this horse to break from the stalls it would be awesome! Left at the start and still made it to 2nd

[grantcharman]

21st April selection
7.40 Limerick Desert Sands matched @ 5.4 4th

[rogsmith]

Hello mate,looking good so far.Can you help me out,in your first post you said about the boss's blog about systems.Could you point me in the right direction to read this.Cheers mate.

[grantcharman]

24 April selections
7.30 Dundalk Metropolis matched @ 7.0 6th
8.30 Dundalk Royal Entourage matched @ 3.8 2nd

[grantcharman]

Hello mate,looking good so far.Can you help me out,in your first post you said about the boss's blog about systems.Could you point me in the right direction to read this.Cheers mate.

Thanks Rog, if you look at the bar at the top of the screen, just to the left of the "Welcome xxxxxxx. xx New Posts" bit is a button for Win2Win Blogs. If you go there, Keiths blog is there, took me a bit of effort to get the posts in the right order, but the "how to do a system" thread is really good.

[grantcharman]

Running late today, 2 for 26 April

2.15 Navan Morrigan
3.20 Navan Le Cadre Noir

[grantcharman]

26 April results
2.15 Navan Morrigan matched @ 4.4 2nd
3.20 Navan Le Cadre Noir matched @ 3.51 3rd

Starting Bank £100
6 winners from 20 = 30% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss +£5.95

[grantcharman]

9th May selections
4.15 Dundalk Refuse to Sell
4.45 Dundalk Royal Entourage

[grantcharman]

9th May results
4.15 Dundalk Refuse to Sell matched @ 4.4 won :thumbs
4.45 Dundalk Royal Entourage matched @ 4.1 8th

Starting Bank £100
7 winners from 22 = 32% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss +£10.41

10th May selection
5.25 Leopardstown Mad About You

[grantcharman]

10th May result
5.25 Leopardstown Mad About You matched @ 2.72 4th

Starting Bank £100
7 winners from 23 = 30% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss +£8.41

[grantcharman]

13th May selection
7.20 Naas Chinese White

[grantcharman]

13th May result
7.20 Naas Chinese White matched @ 3.45, 3rd

[grantcharman]

15th May selection
8.00 Dundalk Refuse to Sell

[grantcharman]

15th May result
8.00 Dundalk Refuse to Sell matched @ 4.6, 7th

[grantcharman]

21st May selection
6.40 Clonmel American Princess

[grantcharman]

21st May result
6.40 Clonmel American Princess matched @ 5.8, won

Starting Bank £100
8 winners from 26 = 31% SR
Stakes all £2 LS
Profit/Loss +£13.53
ROI 126%

[grantcharman]

Couple of qualifiers for 30th May

3.15 Tramore Hamalka
5.20 Tramore Just Like Ivy

[grantcharman]

Results for 30th May

3.15 Tramore Hamalka matched @ 2.3, 8th
5.20 Tramore Just Like Ivy matched @ 5.0, 2nd

[grantcharman]

Qualifiers for 2nd June
1830 Listowel American Princess
2030 Listowel Alexander Castle

[grantcharman]

Results for 2nd June
1830 Listowel American Princess non-runner
2030 Listowel Alexander Castle matched @ 2.99, 10th

Qualifiers for 3rd June
1930 Fairyhouse Western Winner
1930 Fairyhouse Tabaahi
2030 Fairyhouse Mushtaaq