Win2WinRSS
27th June 2009, 12:50
With Sea The Stars an unlikely runner in Sunday's Irish Derby, Jack Houghton is planning to reinvest his profits...
With soft ground now probable, Sea The Stars is an unlikely runner in Sunday's Irish Derby. Having questioned here (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/events/epsom-derby-betting/postderby-thoughts-dont-be-blinded-by-stars-derby-win-120609.html) whether the race was the right option for the horse in the first place, the weather, to my mind, has rescued his reputation: he'll be better suited to the Eclipse; and to campaigning in the top 10 furlong races in general. So, unless the ground firms-up dramatically, I'll be collecting on my small ante-post lay at [1.91] and will reinvest profits at [2.2] on the horse winning the Eclipse. It does leave me a little clueless with how to approach the rest of the Irish Derby though.
An often sage-like sectional-timing friend has been bleating on about Masterofthehorse ever since his last-to-third run at Epsom, and thinks the currently available [6.6] is the bet of the year so far. And I notice Simon Rowlands is thinking along similar - although not quite so evangelical - lines. That these two towering time analysts concur should perhaps be enough, but I just can't get excited about the information. All Epsom showed us was that, when lined up against a bunch of middle-distance opponents, having jogged for most of the race, Masterofthehorse could sprint the last few furlongs quickest. This is undoubtedly a handy attribute, but when set against the context of his form as a whole - and particularly against the context of the overall race time at Epsom - it isn't enough to make me back him at the price.
In a race devoid of any real depth of talent, that just leaves Fame And Glory and Gan Amhras. The former is certainly the most likely winner in Sea The Stars' absence, but at [3.1] and shortening offers no value. So with no great fanfare and keeping stakes small, I've backed Gan Amhras at [15.5]. That price, like all those quoted here, will have a hefty reduction factor applied should Sea The Stars' absence be confirmed, so you might want to wait until just pre-race before punting. In my book anything over [8.0] would still be value.
******
Watching the Gold Cup with a non-racing friend (a new experiment I'm trying), he turned to me after Yeats' stunning win and said, in an effort to demonstrate some racing knowledge, "I bet his sperm will be worth a fair bit now?!"
An hour later, after dutifully listening to my non-stop diatribe about the vagaries of the modern speed-favouring bloodstock market and how, in some minds, Yeats' Gold Cup dominance might actually diminish his value as a stallion, he seemed less enthusiastic about making any comment about racing. Shame. Because I had this whole speech about the difference between sellers and claimers worked out. He would have found it fascinating.
In the past I have made fun of the Coolmore-Ballydoyle machine and their slick but mechanised approach to post-race PR. Whichever horse wins whatever race, Aidan will tell us, in hushed-tones, of the "terrible pace" the animal possesses. The incongruent adjectives chosen always add to the effect, as if speed this blistering would be dangerous in the wrong hands. We are then told the horse will be entered in the July Cup, before racing Usain Bolt over 60m, on route to the Breeders' Cup Classic. The jockey then repeats the same information, as does whichever owner is playing for Ballydoyle that day in their squad-rotation system.
As successful as this approach has proved though, even Ballydoyle realises that Yeats - a decent middle-distance horse though he was - has excelled over trips far outside the usual parameters of interest for anyone but the national hunt brigade. The reality is that, for an organisation focused on finding middle-distance stallion prospects to service their massive worldwide order-book, there are only two things that make Yeats any more relevant to their core business than Istabraq was. But they don't seem prepared to simply hand Yeats off to their jumping division and be done with it. Oh no.
In the last week we have been told, in two separate stories, that Yeats may be targeted at the King George and Arc. Murtagh is quoted as talking about Yeats' ability to run 11.5 second furlongs. As yet, no one has mentioned Usain Bolt. But it's early days.
It's hard to see Yeats winning anything but a weak renewal of the King George, but then in a year when, Sea The Stars apart, most middle-distance talent is stabled at Ballydoyle anyway, perhaps a weak renewal can be easily arranged? Or maybe that won't be necessary. Perhaps the mere suggestion of Yeats' participation is all that is required.
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/general/irish-derby-betting-sea-the-stars-is-better-to-suited-t-270609.html)
With soft ground now probable, Sea The Stars is an unlikely runner in Sunday's Irish Derby. Having questioned here (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/events/epsom-derby-betting/postderby-thoughts-dont-be-blinded-by-stars-derby-win-120609.html) whether the race was the right option for the horse in the first place, the weather, to my mind, has rescued his reputation: he'll be better suited to the Eclipse; and to campaigning in the top 10 furlong races in general. So, unless the ground firms-up dramatically, I'll be collecting on my small ante-post lay at [1.91] and will reinvest profits at [2.2] on the horse winning the Eclipse. It does leave me a little clueless with how to approach the rest of the Irish Derby though.
An often sage-like sectional-timing friend has been bleating on about Masterofthehorse ever since his last-to-third run at Epsom, and thinks the currently available [6.6] is the bet of the year so far. And I notice Simon Rowlands is thinking along similar - although not quite so evangelical - lines. That these two towering time analysts concur should perhaps be enough, but I just can't get excited about the information. All Epsom showed us was that, when lined up against a bunch of middle-distance opponents, having jogged for most of the race, Masterofthehorse could sprint the last few furlongs quickest. This is undoubtedly a handy attribute, but when set against the context of his form as a whole - and particularly against the context of the overall race time at Epsom - it isn't enough to make me back him at the price.
In a race devoid of any real depth of talent, that just leaves Fame And Glory and Gan Amhras. The former is certainly the most likely winner in Sea The Stars' absence, but at [3.1] and shortening offers no value. So with no great fanfare and keeping stakes small, I've backed Gan Amhras at [15.5]. That price, like all those quoted here, will have a hefty reduction factor applied should Sea The Stars' absence be confirmed, so you might want to wait until just pre-race before punting. In my book anything over [8.0] would still be value.
******
Watching the Gold Cup with a non-racing friend (a new experiment I'm trying), he turned to me after Yeats' stunning win and said, in an effort to demonstrate some racing knowledge, "I bet his sperm will be worth a fair bit now?!"
An hour later, after dutifully listening to my non-stop diatribe about the vagaries of the modern speed-favouring bloodstock market and how, in some minds, Yeats' Gold Cup dominance might actually diminish his value as a stallion, he seemed less enthusiastic about making any comment about racing. Shame. Because I had this whole speech about the difference between sellers and claimers worked out. He would have found it fascinating.
In the past I have made fun of the Coolmore-Ballydoyle machine and their slick but mechanised approach to post-race PR. Whichever horse wins whatever race, Aidan will tell us, in hushed-tones, of the "terrible pace" the animal possesses. The incongruent adjectives chosen always add to the effect, as if speed this blistering would be dangerous in the wrong hands. We are then told the horse will be entered in the July Cup, before racing Usain Bolt over 60m, on route to the Breeders' Cup Classic. The jockey then repeats the same information, as does whichever owner is playing for Ballydoyle that day in their squad-rotation system.
As successful as this approach has proved though, even Ballydoyle realises that Yeats - a decent middle-distance horse though he was - has excelled over trips far outside the usual parameters of interest for anyone but the national hunt brigade. The reality is that, for an organisation focused on finding middle-distance stallion prospects to service their massive worldwide order-book, there are only two things that make Yeats any more relevant to their core business than Istabraq was. But they don't seem prepared to simply hand Yeats off to their jumping division and be done with it. Oh no.
In the last week we have been told, in two separate stories, that Yeats may be targeted at the King George and Arc. Murtagh is quoted as talking about Yeats' ability to run 11.5 second furlongs. As yet, no one has mentioned Usain Bolt. But it's early days.
It's hard to see Yeats winning anything but a weak renewal of the King George, but then in a year when, Sea The Stars apart, most middle-distance talent is stabled at Ballydoyle anyway, perhaps a weak renewal can be easily arranged? Or maybe that won't be necessary. Perhaps the mere suggestion of Yeats' participation is all that is required.
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/general/irish-derby-betting-sea-the-stars-is-better-to-suited-t-270609.html)