Is it Fair?

[frontrunner]

The plan is to try & find selections which I consider to be a fair price. I'm going to look at the following three sports HORSERACING FOOTBALL & GREYHOUND RACING in the hope of having a edge in the betting markets either as a backer or a layer depending on the prices available :)

4.00 Goodwood

STARFALA looks overpriced at 9/2 as my fair price is 7/2.


SUAILCE looks underpriced at 5/2 as my fair price is 7/2.


* Please note that just a watching brief is advised on this system*


Frontrunner
:spinning

[frontrunner]

STARFALA (8th) ended up with a sp of 9/2.

SUAILCE (6th) ended up with a sp of 3/1.


Frontrunner
:spinning

[frontrunner]

2.30 GOODWOOD (1/8/09)

(selection)

ZACINTO

(fair price)

5/2

(price available)

13/8


Frontrunner
:spinning

[frontrunner]

ZACINTO (1st) ended up with a sp of 5/2 which was a fair price if you fancied it.


Frontrunner
:spinning

[mathare]

Not sure I get this FR. Why did you tip Zacinto when your fair price was 5/2 but only 13/8 was available initially? Doesn't that mean the horse wasn't value until the price drifted a bit?

[Street cry]

I think that one would have been a value lay Mat at 13/8

[markwales]

It would have been a value lay at 13/8, but went out to 5/2 meaning it was a back, and hence FR's smiley face.

I guess this system calls for placing bets close to the off.

[frontrunner]

Not sure I get this FR. Why did you tip Zacinto when your fair price was 5/2 but only 13/8 was available initially? Doesn't that mean the horse wasn't value until the price drifted a bit?

I didn't tip ZACINTO as such :Blacklistnonono: What I am trying to do is to find FAIR PRICES hence the thread title IS IT FAIR? You can look at from a layer or a backers view. As a backer 5/2 would be a fair price for you to take & As a layer 13/8 is the price available but you now know the FAIR PRICE of the selction as well so you can be a bit braver laying it if you want to :)

Thank you SC & MW for your helpful input :thumbs


Frontrunner
:spinning

[mathare]

I didn't tip ZACINTO as such :Blacklistnonono: Fair enough. A minor technicality though.


What I am trying to do is to find FAIR PRICES hence the thread title IS IT FAIR? You can look at from a layer or a backers view. As a backer 5/2 would be a fair price for you to take & As a layer 13/8 is the price available but you now know the FAIR PRICE of the selction as well so you can be a bit braver laying it if you want to :)I guess I was confused by the fact that you only have the fair price for one horse on a busy Saturday. I don't know how much work you put into finding a fair price (and I don't need to know). It wasn't clear if the horse was being suggested as a back or a lay (or neither).

Not that I am suggesting you would do this, but it seems the results could potentially be manipulated to make them seem better than they are. Zacinto was available at 13/8 but a fair price was 5/2 so it seems like a possible lay. In the end it went off at 5/2 (your fair price) so could be a back. A tricky tipster could then spin the results to suit them - if it wins it was a suggested back at 5/2 but if it loses it was a suggested lay at the early 13/8. Again, not that I am suggesting you would do this, just keeping my eye on things to make it clearer for any newbies looking in on this. No offence intended, obviously.

[frontrunner]

No offence taken :thumbs

I did state in my first thread that a watching brief is advised on this system so at no time should anyone think of parting with any money be they a backer or a layer. The reason for only one race being put up was due to lack of time but if anyone wants to pay me I'll go through more races :D What I will do from now on from now on matt is to just to put up a FAIR PRICE for the backer to save any confusion to the Newbies.


Frontrunner
:spinning

[frontrunner]

3.20 NEWBURY (2/8/09)

FALLEN IN LOVE

(A fair price for the backer would be 5/2)


Frontrunner
:spinning

[mathare]

I did state in my first thread that a watching brief is advised on this system so at no time should anyone think of parting with any money be they a backer or a layer. You did indeed - :butthead: covered! But you know what the 'get rich quick' newbies are like. They will dive into any old system and then moan like hell if it doesn't make them a fortune within 3 days. I try to make sure there are enough disclaimers on new systems were possible. Apols if it seemed like I was picking on you.


The reason for only one race being put up was due to lack of time but if anyone wants to pay me I'll go through more races :DGood answer! Your work is certainly appreciated on here so don't let one grumpy mod put you off :wink


What I will do from now on from now on matt is to just to put up a FAIR PRICE for the backer to save any confusion to the Newbies.OK, that sounds fair (do you see what I did there?) :D There are more backers than layers around anyway and you have made your name on here as a backer too. All the best with these. I will be keeping the prescribed watching brief (and then keeping my nose out :laugh)

[frontrunner]

FALLEN IN LOVE (2nd was an unlucky loser).

FALLEN IN LOVE sp was 5/2 (my rec fair price for backers of the horse).


Frontrunner
:spinning

[frontrunner]

3/8/09

Here are the prices you should be looking for if you fancy any of the following horses to WIN.

7.15 CARLISLE

LEGAL LEGACY (3/1)
KAMMAAN (4/1)
FATHEY (10/3)
RISING KHELEYF (4/1)

7.30 WINDSOR

PRINCE OF JOHANNE (6/4)
DEAR MAURICE (11/10)


Frontrunner
:spinning

[frontrunner]

5.40 RIPON (22/8/09)

MONETARY FUND

(a fair price for the backer would be 5/4)


Frontrunner
:spinning