Daily Waffle 7th November

[mathare]

The day gets off to the worst possible start with a double lay winner at 9.4 in the very first race. It's going to be a long fight back to get even again now

[mathare]

I have just seen Jordaura only won by a head too ;fire

[neilb7]

Not a great start in the first for me;fire

the back loses and the lay wins:splapme

[jonahjones]

Three races in for me and layed the winner of every race. :(

[mathare]

Another lay (non-W2W) gets home by a head ;fire

[mathare]

It really is one of those days isn't it? Another lay at Down Royal goes in by a neck! And in the 1.35 at Doncaster I lay another winner which seconds before they suspended the Betdaq market was available to back at a triple figure price!! And it wins by a head ;fire

I'm going to need the football to go my way this afternoon if I am to escape with anything but a heavy loss today

[mathare]

I'm going to need the football to go my way this afternoon if I am to escape with anything but a heavy loss todayKevin McDonald - I :hearty you! :D

I had a good wedge on a draw between Man City and Burnley today on one of my footy systems and at 4/1 it undoes a hell of a lot of the damage the horses had done to me today and may even see me into profit for the day

[mathare]

I still have a number of outstanding sports bets that won't be settled till later this evening when I will be out but I have at least scraped into profit for now and I am going to take solace from that. I could still end the day with a loss but it won't be a big triple figure loss which is what I was looking at earlier in the day.

My own False Favs suffered a bit of a setback but nothing major, losing 3.6pts. The NHPMs all lost to see that system step up another notch on the staking plan and the bank approach the all-time high once more. The CD lay lost, as did the three Ladies Lays I got matched. I only had one Max lay matched and it won but that system runs off my far my smallest lay bank so that wasn't much of a loss. My main losses on the lays came all on one non-W2W system that suffered 4 winning horses from 11 bets costing me 24.46pts today, a significant loss and a significant setback for this system.

On the backs I started a new non-W2W system today and it kicked off with a winner at 4.70, which was nice. The 1.05 at Sandown saw a short-priced winner for three systems, one of which is under a bank barrier, and all of which have much smaller stakes than the Double Top bank which threw up the second favourite in that race so it was a loser overall for me. There were a few more losers thrown in there too, plus one more winner at 1.83 leaving me up 0.34pts in total for the backs but down in cash terms.

I will provide the normal stats when all my sports bets have been settled, which will probably be tomorrow

[jonahjones]

Kevin McDonald - I :hearty you! :D

I had a good wedge on a draw between Man City and Burnley today on one of my footy systems and at 4/1 it undoes a hell of a lot of the damage the horses had done to me today and may even see me into profit for the day

Good work Mat.

I did an overs acca for all the 3.00pm kick-offs in the Premier League and the Spurs game let me down which included a missed penalty. ;fire

Another very poor day on the systems means my bank continues to crash at a rate of knots. :(

[mathare]

I did an overs acca for all the 3.00pm kick-offs in the Premier League and the Spurs game let me down which included a missed penalty. ;fireI went overs on that game too so was rather annoyed to see the penalty saved by Gomes, who apparently should have been shown a red not a yellow card for the foul that led to the penalty

[mathare]

W2W Systems: 2 from 5, down 2.39pts
W2W Lays: 7 from 8, up 3.39pts
Other: 26 from 48, up 632pts

It looks like a hugely profitable day and in points terms it was but in cash terms I made just over a tenner, all told. The majority of the points gain came from a football system of mine which uses very small points as stakes can get into several hundreds. In fact I had over 175pts on the Man City v Burnley draw and have similar amounts on a couple of games today as that's what the staking plan I use (and have tested thoroughly) says I should be staking. Other banks, such as the Double Top bank, have single points that are around 150 times bigger than 1pt on this football system and most of my lay stakes are 30+ times as big as the football stakes on a per point basis but there I am only risking a few points with each lay, not hundreds.

[MattR]

Mat, is that the draw system where you back each team to draw in the season with increasing stakes? Just wondering cos I know a lot of people came unstuck last season with it as Sporting Gijon in La Liga didn't draw until week 34 :yikes:

[mathare]

Mat, is that the draw system where you back each team to draw in the season with increasing stakes? Just wondering cos I know a lot of people came unstuck last season with it as Sporting Gijon in La Liga didn't draw until week 34 :yikes:Actually, yes it is but in a modified form. I reworked the staking plan significantly and altered the rules slightly to reduce the risk without too much of an impact on the overall ROI. I currently only run it on the Premiership and SPL, and the SPL is a new addition this season. I have checked it out for other leagues (only the English ones at this stage admittedly) and while it works for them the bank needs to be quite large on average so I am sticking with the top flights for now. I plan to look at foreign leagues when time permits but I don't imagine it will work for every league. I certainly wouldn't recommend this system without severe back-testing to make sure you know what you're letting yourself in for but this season I am showing a ROI of over 30% for the Premiership and 40% for the SPL so the profits are most definitely there, and with the additional safety features I have built in to the system I am confident they will be reproducible year on year.

[MattR]

Do you mind if I ask what safety features you built in Mat? I did actually do this system last year, starting with a first bet of a £1 stake, and found it pretty good, but one or two teams caused a problem and I eventually stopped it whilst still in profit but at a stage where a couple of next stakes would see the profit disappear. One league I found was excellent was Serie B.

[mathare]

Do you mind if I ask what safety features you built in Mat?Bearing in mind the work I put into it and the fact that this is a public forum, I kinda do mind. Sorry. Let's just say I modified the staking plan to increase the safety factor somewhat and also looked long and hard at the cut-off point that the basic system makes use of.


I did actually do this system last year, starting with a first bet of a £1 stake, and found it pretty good, but one or two teams caused a problem and I eventually stopped it whilst still in profit but at a stage where a couple of next stakes would see the profit disappear. One league I found was excellent was Serie B.A starting stake of £1 for this is huge! With my modified staking plan I start with stakes of 10p and even then I saw stakes on one match last season get up to £72.06! By this time I had built up a decent profit but I had also back tested the system over many years, with many variations on the rules, to be confident that regardless of how high the stakes got a profit would be acheived at the end of the season.

This season I have upped my Premiership stakes to 25p units as I am more confident in my ability to handle higher stakes as well as more confident in the system itself having put in more research effort over the summer to give me a better idea of what to expect from it.

As I say, I haven't looked at adapting the system for foreign leagues but for me there are a few variables, including some in the staking plan, that can be tweaked depending on the league to give a better fit rather than treating the system as "one size fits all" so the version of the system I run for the Premiership may differ from that for other leagues. I actually found the Premiership and SPL similar enough to use exactly the same variables for both leagues.