boxing days racing selections - wednesday 26th december

12:50 Kempton – William Hill – No.1 Download Betting App Novices’ Hurdle




Nicky Henderson is the man to follow at the Kempton Christmas fixture and can start it with a bang with RIVER MAIGUE. The winner of his sole start in Irish points, he caught the eye when winning at the second time of asking in bumpers. He was pitched in at the deep end on his hurdles debut, as he took on Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham, but he ran a very good race, finishing just a length and a half behind him, in receipt of seven pounds. Dodging Bullets is a classy horse and runs later on the card in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle, so with nothing of that class in opposition here, he should win. New Year’s Eve is the obvious danger as he was a top bumper horse last year. After winning his first two starts, he finished second in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and looks set to be a good novice hurdler. It will be tough for him to beat River Maigue though as the experience he gained on his first run over hurdles, gives him a distinct advantage. The straight forecast looks the best bet of River Maigue to win and New Year’s Eve to come second.




2:00 Kempton – Kauto Star Feltham Novices’ Chase


The Pipe stable won this last year with Grands Crus and it is easy to see them winning it again with DYNASTE. On his first two starts over fences he has looked top class. He jumped superbly on his debut at Cheltenham and the form of that win has been boosted by Unioniste (beaten 8 ½ lengths) coming out to win the December Gold Cup. Then at Newbury, he again jumped and travelled well to beat a useful field of novices. The going is the only question, as his best form has been on good to soft ground, but he ran well behind Big Buck’s on soft ground at Ascot, so I am happy to give him the benefit of the doubt. The opposition doesn’t look up to Grade One class, so if he runs to form, I can’t see him being beaten.




williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle – Kempton Park,2:35 - Wednesday 26th December




Five and six-year-olds remain the key age group to focus on as strictly speaking they have won ten of the last eleven renewals. Although Binocular was aged seven when he won the rearranged race in 2011, he would have been a six-year-old had it taken place on its usual Boxing Day slot, however he did buck the trend for definite in the last renewal of this race when he just got the better of subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby. Cinders and Ashes, Darlan and Raya Star are certainly the right age for making their presence felt this year.
Ten of the last twelve winners had raced within the previous 30 days. Countrywide Flame, Cinders and Ashes and Mad Moose all pass in this area with flying colours having raced within the last 25 days whilst Raya Star and Get Me Out Of Here just miss out having raced 32 days ago.


Last season Binocular became the seventh recent Christmas Hurdle winner to have previously run in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle. The 2003 winner of this race, Intersky Falcon had also previously finished 3rd in the Fighting Fifth but the remaining four had all been successful – Landing Light, Intersky Falcon (2002), Harchibald (2004) and Go Native. Countrywide Flame ran out a comfortable winner of that contest this year leaving Cinders and Ashes a distant runner up – these are the only two runners from that race who will be lining up here.
All of the last twelve winners were officially rated 160 or higher. The three Irish winners between 2004 and 2006 weren’t officially rated in the UK at the time of their victories but one could argue that all three would have been above this benchmark. None of the entries quite reach that standard this year but Get Me Out Of Here (159) and Countrywide Flame (158) are the leading lights in the eyes of the handicapper.


With no Irish contingent this year, Nicky Henderson leads the way having won the Christmas Hurdle four times from ten runners in the last twelve years. His record could have read even better had Punjabi not crashed out when looking the likely winner in 2008. Darlan and Punjabi represent Henderson here and as a result they could both be worth a second look.


On a negative point Paul Nicholls is yet to win the Christmas Hurdle and his runner last year, Dodging Bullets would have to defy his age to find the winners enclosure as not many 4 year olds have the ability to win this race – he has looked impressive this season however so he may be able to buck the trend but it would take a leap of faith to trust him to do so.


Shortlist


Cinders And Ashes


(Raya Star)


Conclusion


It looks to be a fascinating renewal of this race and if all eight declared runners line up then a great one for each way punters. Preference goes for CINDERS AND ASHES who being a five-year-old and having run within the last 30 days matches with two of the stronger trends surrounding this race. His official rating of 151 means that he would be the lowest rated winner of the Christmas Hurdle in the last decade but last seasons Supreme Novice’s winner looks to have plenty of improvement left in him. It is fair to say that he does have a bit to find against his main two rivals but I’m happy to side with him over Countrywide Flame and Darlan.


Countrywide Flame put in a hugely impressive performance in the Fighting Fifth to beat Cinders and Ashes but he is only four and has already seen plenty of racing, this may prove one hard race too many, I would also have reservations about Kempton suiting the John Quinn trained runner. Darlan has the assistance of McCoy and the mastery of Nicky Henderson on his side but it looks a huge ask to win this race off the back of a 250 day lay off against race fit rivals.


It was a very close call between Raya Star and Countrywide Flame as to who should get the second spot on the short list but preference just went for the former. The record of six-year-olds in the race was an influence but the main reason for putting him up here is that he should get the strong pace he thrives on – it will take a career best effort to win this race but he on ratings he won’t need to improve to find the frame. After a gutsy victory in an Ascot Handicap on his first start this season he found only Oscar Whisky too good on his next outing but he showed Alan King enough that day to have a crack at a Grade One and this race and track looks made for him.


Dodging Bullets and Punjabi come from opposite ends of the age spectrum – they both have plenty of negatives to overcome and both look risky options here so I’m happy to avoid them. Mad Moose doesn’t look he will be getting involved at this business end whilst Get Me Out Of Here has the rating to suggest he will be at the business end of the race but as he has generally saved his best for Cheltenham I think he can be ignored here.





William Hill King George VI Chase – Kempton Park,3:10



Since Edredon Bleu caused an upset in 2003 only three horses, Kicking King, Kauto Star and Long Run have won the King George so it is probably fair to say that the trends surrounding this race may just be a little skewed. Still let’s give it a go and see where it leads.
In recent seasons, Kicking King and Kauto Star both won this race as six-year-olds before going onto land the Gold Cup atCheltenhamthree months later – a festival clue in its own right. Technically, Long Run also achieved that feat in the 2010 renewal although had the race been run on its usual Boxing Day, rather than a rearranged date in January, he would have only been a five-year-old.
Seven-year-olds have a pretty similar record thanks to recent victories for First Gold, Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star but that still leaves us with half the field this year including favourite Long Run.


Given that the King George is one of the highlights of the National Hunt season it isn’t that surprising that those coming into the race in top form usually lands the spoils. Nine of the last twelve winners of this race had been successful on their most recent start which is a pretty strong return in anyone’s book – an added bonus for Cue Card, Junior and Kauto Stone.


An official rating of at least 160 is a must when looking for the winner of the King George – this may make you reconsider Grands Crus of the fancied runners who currently sits on 157. Junior and Champion Court also both fall below the expected standard of a King George winner.


It is vital that any selection is a proven Grade 1 performer. The 1998 winner, Teeton Mill was the last King George winner that hadn’t previously won a Grade 1. With that in mind, Captain Chris, Long Run, Grands Crus, Riverside Theatre, Kauto Stone and Cue Card. The Giant Bolster is yet to win above Grade 3 level over fences but he did find only Synchronisd too good in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
It would unwise to back a horse solely on the trainers record in this race as six of the last ten renewals have been won by the same two horses. Obviously, Paul Nicholls currently leads the field partly thanks to the five victories of Kauto Star, but he also won this race in 1999 with See More Business. Nicky Henderson’s runners had always tended to be the bridesmaid rather than the bride as he had four runners fill the minor placings since 2001, but the 2010 renewal saw him get his rewards when Long Run not only broke his duck in the race but Riverside Theatre gave him a prestigious 1-2.


At the start of the century, the King George winners had been taking part in a variety of prep races but in recent seasons the Betfair Chase has really come to the fore. Haydock’s Grade 1 has now featured on the roll call in five of the last seven years.


Despite the fact there’s been a couple of potentially doubtful stayers land the King George in recent seasons, a large percentage of winners had proven stamina on their side. Plenty of classy but sub three miles chasers have taken their chance in the King George, including the likes of Remittance Man, Deep Sensation, Travado, Flagship Uberalles and Azertyuiop but all came up short when it mattered. This trend puts a question mark over Captain Chris, For Non Stop, Cue Card,Champion Courtand Riverside Theatre and who have never won beyond two and a half miles. It is probably a question that will be raised in many racing households but on the evidence so seen so far, there has to be an element of doubt about their ability to get the trip.


As with any race, there is always the occasional shock in the King George but favourite backers would have made a pretty penny overall as seven of the last ten winners had been at the head of affairs. Even accounting for Edredon Bleu’s shock 25/1 victory in 2003, the average starting price is still pretty low – a shade over 9/2. That firmly points the finger at Long Run


Shortlist


Long Run


(Captain Chris)




Conclusion
LONG RUN appears to be the stand out in this year’s renewal – his old foe Kauto Star has retired so it would be a surprise if he didn’t make the most of his absence to lift the prize for a second time. He does appear to have the ideal profile, save for the fact that he was beaten at Haydock. There is a question mark about his defeat at Haydock last time out but I think Henderson would have been more concerned about today so he should have him fully wound up and I expect to see a different horse for this one. That’s not saying Long Run wasn’t fit for the race but you don’t win the Gold Cup in November.


But there are other horses in the line-up and it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that one of the ‘outsiders’ comes and spoils the party. So the second spot on the shortlist goes to Captain Chris. Philip Hobbs’ runner could turn out to be the forgotten horse of the race as he put a sluggish 2011-12 season behind him with an impressive victory over Finian’s Rainbow atAscot.


He is a three time winner at Kempton – twice over hurdles and once over fences. He had the speed to win an Arkle in 2011 before following up at Punchestown so his ability s clear to see. He is yet to win beyond an extended two and a half miles, however, whilst we cannot know for sure, his performances have suggested that it isn’t beyond him. Despite not living up to his potential yet I’m willing him to give him another chance based on the way he dismantled the opposition atAscot – he could be a different proposition this season and looks the best alternative to Long Run.


Grands Crus and Riverside Theatre will attract plenty of support but the former will need to bounce back from a couple of below par efforts whilst Riverside Theatre found Long Run too good in the 2010 renewal and with his injury record it is a big ask for him to get his head in front of his stalemate here.


Of the remainder The Giant Bolster doesn’t look the type of horse to enjoy Kempton whilst Cue Card has bundles of ability but at six it would take a special talent to take this prize. Kauto Stone has generally made his seasonal reappearance his season peak and I expect that to be the case again here.



3:30 Ffos Las – Professional Security Management Handicap Chase


CARRUTHERS has been given a real chance by the handicapper to get back to winning ways. Last season he won the Hennessy off a mark of 146, yet runs in this off just 138. An added bonus is that he has the assistance of the good amateur Mr N de Boinville who takes another seven pounds off his back. The ground is heavy, which will really suit him and in a field of just six, I can see him outclassing his opponents from the front. I feel the track will also really suit him and although he has been in bad form since the Hennessy, I am prepared to take a chance on him bouncing back, as this looks a real opportunity for him.



merry xmas and a happy new year everyone