Taking Cheltenham to Aintree

Cheltenham form at Aintree

Alistair Whitehouse-Jones does a nice little piece in this week’s Weekender – reckoning a run at Cheltenham can be a positive when turning out again at Aintree –

Apparently,

no less than 34 of the 57 winners at Aintree (excluding bumpers) during the last three seasons took in Cheltenham, including all bar 6 of the 19 winners last year.

You would expect the races to be flooded with festival participants & yet at last year’s meet (ex- bumpers again), only 111 of the 284 declared runners competed at Prestbury Park.
That’s a 39% coverage, which makes their SR of 69% impressive.

Furthermore, of the 34 winners in question during the last 3 years, 20 recorded a first 4 position at Cheltenham, including 9 of the 13 winners last year.

Big Buck’s, Albertas Run & Peddlers Cross won at both meetings.

4 of the 7 after day one - including 2 winners winning at both meets (& Big Buck's again), 1 with a first 4 placing & one, like Wishful Thinking a bf, had unseated his rider.

Cheltenham runners got a whipping on the 2nd day with only only two winners, Master Minded & Battle Group having their previous at the festival -

it's now 7 - 6 to the Cheltenham NR's

10 - 9 to the 'having taken in Cheltenham' crew after the Saturday.

But I found a bit more by the same author today -

FRESH IS BEST!

Despite the positive stats regards Cheltenham runners – it still pays to be fresh heading to Aintree. Bar the bumpers last year, 14 of the 19 winners had raced no more than 4 times earlier in the campaign.

(12 from 19 this - 2011)

So that's 26 from 38 (68%) the last two years.

Interestingly enough, the first four winners on the Saturday, had all taken in Cheltenham, had had no more than 4 runs this season & were all within my top two rated.

we just would like to give a huge thumbs up for the great info you have here on this post. I will be coming back to your posr for
more soon.

__________________
Cost performance led 5050 online.

Last year at Ainree a lot of the winners at Chelt ran poorly at Aintree i though

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lowe1

Last year at Ainree a lot of the winners at Chelt ran poorly at Aintree i though

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Different type of track though isn't it? It does say up there somewhere 'a first four placing @ Chelt' not necessarily winners - I'll try & do an update before March....:rolleyes:

Think because of the longer gap this year between the Festivals that the Cheltenham 1st 4's are having a good year so far but the lightly raced (4 runs or less this season) are not doing so good.

Sometimes the gap is only 2 weeks, it has been a long one this year.

Right, this guy is nuts or :crazy: but hopefully when I get time to go through it all we should know which races 'Cheltenham 1st 4 runners' do well in. There will be a downloadable ebook/pdf FREE come April for the three days, this is just day one:

http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/ain...statsprofiles/

[I'll be back for some highlighting closer to the day]

Aintree 2015: Day 1 Race Trends/Stats/Profiles

March 19, 2015/4 Comments/in Big Race Trends, Blog /by Josh Wright

I have’t missed a day at the Grand National meeting for 7 years and this year will be no different. To help my analysis and to help find those elusive winners I have started to delve into the stats.

Unlike Cheltenham I have decided to go through every race separately.

In each race I cover trends, ‘other stats’, trainer’s records and the odd micro angle/profile. I have ‘discovered’ on HorseRaceBase that you can ‘query’ any race where there are trends. This means I can use the system building tool to delve into each race in even more detail. I am not sure why I haven’t done this before, but there you go!

I will be doing the same for Day 2 and Day 3 and will also see if I can uncover any trainer based ‘micro systems’ or general stats for certain race types.

I will be producing a free E-Book/PDF that you can download. I will email this out the week beginning the 1st April.



I know trends and stats are not for everyone. Indeed a lot of punters/experts detest the very thought of them. As always they are there for you to use or ignore as you please. My preference is to use the ‘relevant’ (subjective) stats to draw up a shortlist. However I would always advise that you go through every runner separately as well, if you have time. And of course sometimes you just have to ignore stats and go with your heart/instinct – Coneygree would be a perfect example.

Housekeeping…

The ‘Places’ stats also include any winners as well. So, where you see something like 1/19, 1 place. That would mean 1 from 19 bets/runners, 1 place – that 1 place would be the winner. If it were 1/19, 3 places that would indicate that 2 horses have finished in the places, as well as the winner. I hope that is clear.

To save time and space I have made subjective decisions on what stats to include, if I think they are interesting and relevant. I.e for some races you will see info on the origin of the horse (FR,GB, IRE etc) but on others you will not. Where this info is not included you can assume that horses that were GB, FR, IRE bred,for example, had similar records.

And finally, given I am looking at stats on a race by race basis some of the numbers are small. Maths bods out there would correctly argue that they are not statistically significant. As such do treat them with caution. You will no doubt have certain aspects you prefer to focus on given your own methods etc.

Let’s get to it…



Day 1

Race 1: Betfred Manifesto Novices’ Chase

This will be only the 7th renewal. As you will see below, Henderson, Hobbs and King have done well in this race to date.

Race Trends:

6/6 Top 3 in the market
0/19 3 places outside top 3 so far
Other Stats:

Those that won LTO are currently 0/9, 1 place
All winners finished 2-5.
All 6 winners ran at Cheltenham Festival last time
0/11 1 place, those that did not
All 6 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 last time out
Non Major (0/8 1 place)
Grade 3 (0/3), Listed (0/6 0 places)
Trainers:

Henderson 2/3, 3 places
Hobbs 2/3, 3 places
King 1/3, 2 places
George 1/2, 1 place
Nicholls 0/7 1 place


Race 2: Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle

Race Trends:

14/18 Top 3 LTO
9/18 Won by the Fav
16/18 ran within the last 30 days
8-15 days 2/26 runners
16-30 days ago 14/116 runners
31-60 days 2/60 runners
61 days + 0/23 runners (1 place)


18/18 had run over a minimum of 16.5f previously in career
16f only 0/33 runners 4 places
Other Stats

14/18 ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO (14/90 runners, 37 places, AE 1.08)
4/18 did not (4/134 runners, 16 places, AE 0.49)
Track Last Time Out
Positives (in addition to Cheltenham)
Kempton 2/16, 4 places
Kelso 1/5, 1 place
Lingfield 1/2, 1 place
Negatives
Doncaster 0/5, 0 places
Haydock 0/10, 1 place
Huntingdon 0/7, 0 places
Leopardstown 0/5, 0 places
Newbury 0/10, 0 places
Stratford 0/8, 0 places
Warwick 0/5, 0 places
Horse Run in last 90 Days-
0 runs 0/17 runners, 1 place
Horses that made their debut at Lingfield (AW)are 4/10 runners, 5 places
No doubt just one of those things but I found it interesting.
Those moving up 1f or more from last run: 0/14 runners, 1 place
Those yet to run in a Grade 1 were only 2/123 runners, 15 places, AE 0.27 (take with pinch of salt as only became a G1 in 2005, as you will see below for the micro angle)
1 run: 11/68, 26 places, AE 1.21
2 runs: 3/9, 4 places, AE 1.64
3 runs (no more than this yet), 0/2 2 places
Those that had not placed (0), or had only placed once (1) in a hurdle: 1/78, 6 places AE 0.21
Those with 0 or 1 win only in hurdle races: 5/142 runners, 19 places, AE 0.53
2 or more wins in hurdle races: 13/86 34 places, AE 1.1


MICRO ANGLE

I believe this was made a Grade 1 in 2005. As such look for horses that…

Ran at Cheltenham Festival LTO (since becoming a G1, those that did not race at Cheltenham LTO are 1/62, 5 places)
Top 3 LTO (at Cheltenham)
23 bets / 9 winners / 15 places

9 winners from the last 10 races, averaging around 2 ‘qualifiers’ a year.

Those that raced in a G1 at Cheltenham are 14 bets / 8 winners / 11 places

Trainer’s records using this micro angle:

Henderson 1/2, 2 places; Hobbs 1/2, 1 place; King 3/4, 4 places; Nicholls 1/3, 3 places

Alan King was also responsible for the ‘outlier’ in 2013, Lunique. Clearly he does well in this race!



Trainers’ overall records:

Positives-

Henderson 1/14 3 places
Hobbs 2/11 4 places
King 4/7 5 places
Moore 1/11 1 place
Nicholls 2/19 8 places
ONeill 1/3 2 places
Richards 1/2 2 places
Negatives-

McCain 0/5 0 places
Williams 0/12 1 place


Race 3: Betfred Bowl

Surprisingly I couldn’t find that much to go on. Also, it only became a G1 in 2010.

Race Trends:

14/18 Top 5 LTO (74 runners)
4/18 6th or worse LTO (48 runners)
10/18 Top 2 in market (37 runners)
8/18 3rd fav or below, 86 runners
Neither of those ‘trends’ help too much.

Other Stats:

14/18 ran in a Grade 1 LTO (14/75 runners: 78% winners from 62% runners)
4/18 did not (4/47 runners: 22% winners, 38% runners)
Since change to G1, 3 of last 5 winners ran in G1 LTO. But, from 23 runners. Grade 2: 1/4, Grade 3: 1/6
18/18 ran in a race worth over £17,000 LTO
(0/11 1 place below this)
12/18 (69 runners) competed for over £100k LTO
4 of last 5 winners were priced under 4/1 come the off. Follow The Plan also won at 50/1.


The numbers are so small from the last 5 years there is no point in any further analysis.



Trainers:

Nicholls 3/16 6 places; D. Pipe 2/5 3 places.


Race 4: Aintree Hurdle

Race Trends:

14/18 Top 5 LTO (78% winners from 97 runners, 59% of runners)
4/18 (22% winners from 67 runners, 41% runners)
15/18 Aged 6,7 or 8
5yo 2/36 runners (6 yo are 5.36 runners for example); 9+ 1/22 runners
14/18 Top 4 in the market (78% winners from 77 runners, 47% runners)
4/18 outside top 4 in market (22% winners from 87 runners, 53% runners)
16/18 Had between 3 and 5 runs that season
0-2 is 1/31 runners, 3 places
6+ runs is 1/34 runners, 5 places
18/18 16/1 or under
0/52 runners over 16/1, 4 places
Other Stats:

Horse Run 90 Days
0 or 1: 7/46, 13 places (39% winners, 28% runners)
2 runs: 9/82, 26 places (50% winners, 50% runners)
3+: 2/36 runners, 9 places (11% winners, 22% runners)
Don’t be put off by those yet to place or win in Grade 1 company. Their stats are comparable with those that have ‘demonstrated’ their class already.
Those with 0 career wins and 0 career places are 0/9 and 0/8 respectively
Breeding
IRE 13/18 (13/69 runners, 72% winners, 42% runners)
GB 3/18 (3/32 runners)
FR 2/18 (2/49 runners)
Other (USA,GER,NZ) 0/14, 3 places)
10/18 winners won 2 or more times this season (51 runners -30%)
8/18 won 0 or 1 (113 runners -70%)
Clearly this would not be a decisive factor, but those that have the winning habit this season have done best given the number of such runners.
Track Last Time Out
Cheltenham 14/18, but from 115 runners
All the other 4 ran in Ireland LTO
Dundalk (1/2), Gowran Park (1/3 2 places), Leop (1/4 2 places), Limerick (1/1)
Dealing with very small numbers but it is interesting.


Trainers:

Positives-

Henderson 2/17 3 places (wins with same horse)
Twiston-Davies 3/7 4 places
Queally 3/5 3 places (same horse)
Mullins 0/5 4 places


Other-

Hobbs 0/7 2 places
King 0/6 1 place
Nicholls 1/12, 1 place only (debateable if a negative but the 1 place –which was his winner- surprised me)


Race 5: Fox Hunters Chase

Race Trends:

13/18 Top 3 LTO
15/18 Top 6 LTO
Other 3 either Fell (1/8) or Unseated Rider (2/19)
PU LTO 0/53 runners, 1 place
15/18 priced 8/1 or below (from 72 runners, 83% winners, from only 16% of runners)
3/18 priced over 8/1 (16% winners, 3/375 runners, from 84% of runners)
3 big priced horses have won, but they would appear to be hard to find!
15/18 Top 4 in the market (11/18 Top 2)
15/18 Aged 9,10 or 11 (83% winners, from 61% runners)
6-8 yo 0/41 3 places
12/13 3/118 runners, 12 places
14+ 0/14 2 places
16/18 ran within the last 90 days
121-365 days 1/86 runners, 4 places
365+ 1/34 runners, 4 places
13/18 ran 1,2,3 times this season only
2/61, 8 places making their seasonal debut
4 or more runs this season: 3/122 runners, 8 places
2 of those had 10 or 11 runs this season (1/1, 1/2)


Other Stats:

Those moving up in class by 1, 2 or 3 classes only 2/93, 9 places
Up 4 classes (from c6) 8/223, Same Class 6/59, 13 places
Tack Last Time Out
Positives (those with 2 or more wins)
Aintree 2/17 4 places
Cheltenham 5/49 9 places
Fontwell 2/8 3 places
Ludlow 2/27 4 places
Negatives (0 wins, at least 10 runners)
Ayr 0/11 0 places
Fakenham 0/10 0 places
Leicester 0/23 1 place
Market Rasen 0/12 1 place
Sandown 0/20 3 places
Sedgefield 0/11 1 place
Stratford 0/14 2 places
Warwick 0/13 1 place
Trainers:

No trainer has won this more than once during the study period and very few trainers have had more than 5 runners in the race.

Of note:-

Nicholls 1/15 2 places
Bailey 1/4 3 places
Barber 1/4 3 places
Bolger 1/5 3 places
Coltherd 1/2 2 places
Flook 0/8 0 places
Hobbs 1/3 3 places
Jones 1/3 2 places
Waley Cohen 2/5 4 places


Jockey….There is one jockey to note around these fences, and I am sure you can guess who it is…

Sam Waley-Cohen: 10 rides, 3 wins, 5 places


Race 6: Red Rum Chase

Race Trends:

12/18 Top 6 LTO
5/18 Fell, PU or UR LTO
Those priced over 20/1 1/45, 5 places
13/18 Top 6 in the market
Aged 10 or over 1/41 5 places
Fairly even spread from those aged 5 (1/6 2 places) through to 9 (5/57 12 places)
Those carrying 11-11 and 11-12 – 0/12 0 places
Last ran 121+ days ago: 0/12 0 places


Other Stats:

Those that raced at the Cheltenham Festival LTO and those that did not have a near identical split:
Chelt: 9/123, 29 places
Other: 9/119, 29 places
Horse Runs 90 days
0 or 1 run 3/78, 13 places (AE 0.47)
2 or 3 runs 12/137, 36 places (AE 0.97)
4 or more 3/27, 7 places (AE 1.1)
Do not be put off by those yet to run or place in a Class 1 race. They perform as well as those with Class 1 experience
Career Chase Runs-
10 or more in career: 5/132, 24 places (AE 0.51)
9 or fewer: 13/109, 34 places (AE 1.13)
Career Chase Wins-
0-2 Chase Wins: 12/112 runners, 32 places, +31 isp, (AE1.15)
3 or more: 6/130, 26 places, -64.5 (AE 0.55)
9 or more Career wins (all race types) 0/26 3 places
Wins in a Handicap
0 or 1 win in a handicap: 11/96, 29 places, +23isp (AE 1.1)
2 or more: 7/146, 29 places, -56, (AE 0.61)
4+: 2/60, 10 places, (AE 0.44)
Horse Runs in Handicap Chases
1-2: 9/48, 14 places (AE 1.7)
0 or 3 or more: 9/194, 44 places, (AE 0.56)
Horse Wins in Handicap Chase
0 or 1: 14/151, 43 places, (AE 0.95)
2 or more: 4/91, 15 places (AE 0.6)
Those with 8 or more places in chases: 1/64 10 places (AE 0.21)
In truth not too much to go on there really, which is disappointing. Given the number of such runners those that are more unexposed appear to have the best record. (that comment probably applies to most races ever run!) However, I would not be confident in using any of the stats to immediately discount runners given that horses with all kinds of different profiles have won over the years.



Trainers:

Positives-

King 1/5 4 places
Phillips 1/3 2 places
Tizzard 1/7 3 places
Webber 3/11 4 places
A L T. Moore 1/7 2 places
Phillips 1/3 2 places
Neutral-

Nicholls 1/25 5 places
NTD 0/9 3 places
Williams 1/16 3 places
Negative-

Henderson 0/16 1 place




Race 7: Aintree Handicap Hurdle

Race Trends:

12/18 Top 4 LTO
2/18 5th or 6th LTO
18/18 Age 5-9
10/18 Top 3 in market
3/150 runners, 14 places, priced bigger than 16/1
15/192 runners, 54 places, priced 16/1 or under
18/18 ran 16-90 days ago
0/54 runners, 6 places outside of this
18/18 had at least 4 runs in last 365 days
0-3: 0/81, 11 places
17/18 at least 4 runs this season
0-3 runs 1/112, 15 places


Other Stats:

Did horse run at Cheltenham Festival LTO?
Yes: 8/170, 35 places
No: 10/166, 32 places
Horse runs 90 days
0 runs: 0/28 3 places
1 or 2: 7/191, 32 places (AE 0.52)
3 or 4: 11/110, 31 places, +90 isp (AE 1.5)
Career runs – between 0-3: 0/18 3 places
0-3 runs in all Hurdle races: 0/27, 5 places
Horse runs in Handicap Hurdles
0 runs: 0/25, 3 places
1-7 runs: 15/205, 41 places (AE 0.96)
8 or more runs: 3/109, 24 places (AE 0.54)
1st Ever Run
Those making their racing debut on the flat or AW: 0/88, 13 places
Those making their debut aged 2 or 3: 0/91, 15 places
9/83 runners won on their debut (50% winners, 24% runners)
Track Last Time Out
Positives
Cheltenham 9/181, 37 places (not just the Festival)
Haydock 2/16, 6 places
Sandown 5/14, 5 places
Negatives
Ascot 0/7, 1 place
Doncaster 0/12, 1 place
Kempton 0/17, 1 place
Other
Uttoxeter 1/15, 2 places
Trainers:

Positives-

Jefferson 1/3, 2 places
Jonjo O’Neill 4/17, 6 places
Pipe 2/15, 5 places (father did ok in race as well, 2/30,8 places)
Negatives-

Henderson 0/19, 1 place
Other-

Hobbs 1/19, 1 place
King 0/9, 3 places
Nicholls 1/11, 2 places
NTD 1/20, 5 places
Williams 1/15, 1 place


MICRO PROFILE

ALL 18 winners:-

Aged 5-9
Ran 16-90 days ago
At least 4 runs in last 365 days
1 + runs in Handicap Hurdles
1st ever run: made debut aged 4 or over, and in National Hunt
That gives you 100% winners from 42% of all runners. It averages around 8 ‘qualifiers’ a year. Given there are usually around 22 runners, this is a useful starting point. There were 15 qualifiers last year which wouldn’t have been too helpful so we shall see what it throws up this year. By focusing on certain trainers and the track they ran at last time out, as below, would narrow it down further.

Total 18/142 runners

Those priced 16/1 or under are 15/88. Over 16/1, 3/54.

(In the last 12 years 11 winners have been priced 16/1 or under, from 67 bets. This would leave a more manageable shortlist)

Those 18 winners ran at either Cheltenham LTO (9/81), Haydock (2/6, 5 places), Huntingdon (1/2, 1 place), Sandown (5/9, 5 places) or Uttoxeter (1/7 1 place)

In fact all 3 of the bigger priced winners over 16/1 ran at Haydock (2/3) or Sandown (1/2) LTO. Horses running at Cheltenham LTO, priced over 16/1 in this race, are 0/29, 3 places.

(Whereas horses that last ran at Sandown have a shocking record at Cheltenham, they appear to be doing much better at Aintree so far)

Record over the last 7 years (all odds):

2008: 1,2,3,4

2009: 1,2 (50/1 winner)

2010: 1,2,3,5

2011: 1,5

2012: 1,3,5

2013: 1,2,5

2014: 1,3,4,5



That is all for now. Onto Day 2.

Too much for me - I haven't got the time but for anyone who has:

It is FREE, 40 pages long, and covers every single race at this year's Grand National meeting, including the big one.

Grab your copy HERE http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-conte...eting-2015.pdf

Good Luck