Saturday 15th Decembers selections

1:00 Doncaster – Healthwatch Doncaster Novices’ Chase




ROCKY CREEK is a horse that I always thought would be much better over fences than hurdles and having jumped well on his chase debut, I fully expect him to win this. I just feel he needed the run on his debut, when second to Harry Topper, but he finished well clear of the pack and the form has been boosted by the winner landing a Grade Two contest next time out. Over hurdles Rocky Creek won a Grade 2 at this track, ridden by today’s jockey Daryl Jacob, but he should develop into a much better chaser. In points he beat Rolling Aces on his sole start, who won a competitive handicap at Newbury recently, so there is plenty in his favour and I expect him to be very hard to beat.




1:20 Cheltenham – Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase


SHOOTERS WOOD won at cheltenham in November and I was impressed by him. He struck me as an improving two mile handicapper and often they can stay ahead of the handicapper, so he is one that I want on my side. He has gone up eight pounds in the handicap, but that may not be enough to stop him. It was a very competitive race he won last time, but this looks less competitive, but he meets a higher quality opponent, so he will need to improve to win, but Ruby Walsh is building up an understanding of the horse, which will really help.



Cheltenham 2-30 - Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Cup (Grade 3)



With a six or seven-year-old having triumphed in eight of the last ten years, there is plenty of reason to follow this age-group this time around. Half of the field going to post on Saturday come from this cluster including last year’s winner Quantitativeeasing, Paddy Power runner-up Walkon and Cristal Bonus who won the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Chase on his most recent start. There would have to be concerns about the credentials of Unioniste however, as he will be attempting to become the first four-year-old winner since 1963.


An equally strong trend is that eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their most recent visit to the racecourse. Those to fall at this hurdle include Notus De La Tour who fell in the Byrne Group Plate in March, Quantitativeeasing who was pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Michael Flips who finished 6th at Newbury two weeks ago.


Race fitness is something that shouldn’t be taken for granted in this race as none of the last ten winners were making their seasonal debuts. In fact eight of the last ten winners had two runs under their belt during the current season. This stat applies to seven of the line-up with Wishfull Thinking, Renard and Nadiya De La Vega joining Michael Flips, Golden Chieftain, Kingsmere and Unioniste in this select group.


Previous Cheltenham form can often be significant as it shows the horse’s ability to handle the undulations of the racecourse. Most of the runners this year have at least a placed effort to their name round Prestbury Park although there are a few notable exceptions. Paul Nicholls’ Cristal Bonus showed his ability when winning a Grade 2 last time out but on three previous visits to Cheltenham he has finished fifth and seventh before being pulled up in the Jewson at last season’s festival. Michael Flips, Renard, Golden Chieftain and Kingsmere all join him having never recorded a top-three finish here.


The Paddy Power Gold Cup has become a very good trial for this contest in recent years, with four of the last five winners taking in both races. There are four horses that arrive here having chased home Al Ferof at Cheltenham in November including the runner-up Walkon and the third-placed Nadiya De La Vega. Both Quantitativeeasing and Kingsmere also took part in the race but were both pulled up in the Grade 3 event.


With six of the last ten winners carrying 10st 13lbs or more, this looks to be the benchmark by which to judge potential winners. There are only three qualifiers on this basis with Wishfull Thinking (11st 12lb), Cristal Bonus (11st 7lb) and Quantitativeeasing carrying 11st 3lb. At the other end of the scale, Hell’s Bay, Have You Seen Me and Unioniste will all be trying to become the lowest weighted winner since Sir Oj carried 10st to victory in 2005.


Finally, in terms of trainer trends the men to follow are the two big powers of National Hunt racing Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls. Both have two runners each this year, with Nicholls saddling Unioniste and Cristal Bonus and Henderson represented by Nadiya De La Vega and last year’s winner Quantitativeeasing. Both trainers will be looking to add to their tallies of two and three respectively and look set to be thereabouts again on Saturday.




Shortlist


Nadiya De La Vega


Walkon


(Cristal Bonus)


(Wishfull Thinking)


Conclusion


NADIYA DE LA VEGA defied a lay-off of nearly ten months when winning the BetVictor.com Handicap Chase here in October. She followed up this effort with a creditable third behind Al Ferof in the Paddy Power and as we have discussed it often proves a good trial for this race. She finished twelve lengths behind Walkon that day but she gets a pull at the weights and she is still entitled to be improving at the age of six. She also comes from the Nicky Henderson yard and with the run of the race likely to suit her, it would be no surprise to see her in contention coming up the hill.


Walkon managed to live up to the expectations of his connections when runner-up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time. He got within three lengths of Al Ferof that day and given the targets he has in mind, the future would look bright for Walkon as well. There is an argument to say that he is best when fresh but won the Grade 1 4-y-o Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree a couple of weeks after finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle. We know that the horse and the yard from which he comes are both in good form and as long as the handicapper hasn’t raised him too much, another big run could be in the offing.


Cristal Bonus looked to show marked improvement when scoring at Down Royal in Grade 2 company last time. He ran out a nine-length winner on the day, appearing to come on for a summer break and looks to be heading the right way. His previous attempts at Cheltenham would be a concern, however these were all at Grade 2 level but he looks to be a more mature horse now. He looks to be the pick of the Nicholls’ runners with Ruby Walsh booked to ride and could be set for a big season.


Wishfull Thinking won the Grade 3 Murphy Group Chase over course and distance in January 2011 as a novice before finishing second to Noble Prince in the Jewson at the festival. Whilst not disappointing he never really lived up to expectations last season, he showed signs of a return to form when finishing second to For Non Stop at Aintree in October. He confirmed his fine form when running out an extremely impressive winner of the Shloer Chase over two miles at the Paddy Power meeting. He carries top weight here but due to the success of those towards the top of the racecard in recent years, this should not put potential backers off.




2:45 Doncaster – BetVictor.com Summit Juvenile Juvenile Hurdle


SAMETEGAL put up some useful performances in France prior to joining Paul Nicholls and looked very good on his British debut. He made his debut in a listed race at Wetherby and was well supported in the market. The market confidence was justified as he won very easily; pulling eight lengths clear of Flashman in second. He looks a very useful recruit to hurdling and although this is a step up in grade, he looks up to the challenge and should be hard to beat.




3:05 – Cheltenham -Stan James.com International Hurdle (Grade 2)


With six of the last ten winners having run in the Greatwood Hurdle prior to running here, it appears to be a good guide to this race over course and distance. Five horses in the last ten years have completed the double, whilst Osana was runner-up in the Greatwood before running here. One Cool Shabra is the only horse in this year’s field to have taken part in this season’s re-named Racing Post Hurdle, however having only finished ninth behind Olofi, he would probably have to improve on that effort here.


Horses aged four and five have been the dominant age-group in recent years, accounting for six winners in the last decade. They have four representatives this year with Zarkandar, Grandouet, One Cool Shabra and Red Riverman all flying the flag for the flag for this generation. Rock On Ruby will be bidding to emulate Back In Front and Khyber Kim, who both won this race at the age of seven, whilst the nine-year-old Minella Theatre will be attempting to become the oldest winner since 1999 when Relkeel won his third International Hurdle at the age of 10.


The strongest trend for this race is that all of the last ten winners had finished in the first three on their most recent racecourse outing. Only four runners qualify on this basis, Grandouet has not been seen since winning this race last year, Zarkandar returned to action with victory in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and both One Cool Shabra and Rock On Ruby finished third last time out. Therefore given the strength of this trend, I am happy to eliminate Minella Theatre, Mad Moose and Red Riverman from the shortlist at this stage.
A previous victory in a Class 1 event is something that nine of the last ten winners have had in common.


Grandouet, Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby all fit the bill this year and in fact all have previously recorded Grade 1 victories. This statistic highlights the quality of the contest and the fact that a horse with form at the highest level is needed here.


The previous trend is reinforced by the fact that seven of the last ten winners had an official rating of 155 or higher. Both Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar will become the highest rated winner in the last decade should they be successful on Saturday with ratings of 170 and 168 respectively. Grandouet also has a rating in excess of 155 and his mark of 166 would make him the highest rated winner since Harchibald in 2005.


The final factor to bear in mind is the success that market leaders have had during the last ten years. There have been seven winning favourites during this time and an average winning SP of 11/2 suggests that we should not be looking too far down the market. The betting is subject to change before the start time but it is still worth bearing in mind the success that fancied horses have had down the years.




Shortlist


Zarkandar


Grandouet


Conclusion


Grandouet’s four-length defeat of Overturn last year saw him rise towards the top of the betting for the Champion Hurdle in March. Unfortunately he sustained an injury after that and missed the rest of the season but given that Overturn was also second in the Champion Hurdle it would not be unfair to say that Grandouet would have gone close as well. He is still only a five-year-old and providing he back to his best, he is entitled to have improved since last season, with that in mind I can see him going close again and becoming the first back-to-back winner since Relkeel in 1999.


The marginal preference is for ZARKANDAR who actually beat Grandouet by five lengths when winning the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2011 before following up in the 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree. His return to action in the Betfair Hurdle suggested he retained plenty of ability despite a lay-off but a cough in the yard probably took the edge off him and he could only managed fifth in the Champion Hurdle. He won the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November when conceding over a stone in weight to Prospect Wells after which he was cut in the betting for the Champion Hurdle. He will be primed for Saturday and with a big run likely to be in the offing, he could become a serious contender for the Champion Hurdle in March.









ps - i have posted the above thread on other forums