Quito

[bigcumba]

Runs today in the 335 at Haydock

[John]

Was just about to post! Hope he does the business, this race looks like it could well be his.

[inittowinit]

14/08/04 runs in the 14:50 Newbury

[John]

Thanks I, currently trading at 15.0's on Betfair, running in a 7f Group 3

[markwales]

Running in the 2.50 at Newmarket today.

Short notice I know !!

[Jonny2621]

A couple of quid at 8.8, who knows...

[bod1]

runs 2 mora at donny 2.25

[phil_999]

Quito is down to run

NEWMARKET 3.10 SAT 30/10/04

[bigcumba]

Thought I might put some stats together for Quito in the same way I did for Paddywack - hope some of you find this useful!

He's had 65 runs since Summer 2002 - 11 wins for a SR of 17% If you had backed him every time you would be 29.5pts in profit to SP, and a fair bit more at Betfair odds as the prices range from 7/4 to 20/1.

Let's break these down to see if we can rule out some races he has little or no chance of winning....maybe useful for laying!

Flat turf - 6 wins frm 43 = 14% for 20.25pts profit.

Flat AW - 5 wins from 22 = 23% for 9.25pts profit.

Now to break down the stats a bit more -

Going - He has only ever won on Good to Firm, Good, Good to Soft and Standard AW - 9 losing races outwith these. - breaking it down further - GTF 2 from 17, Gd 3 from 15, GTS 1 from 5, Std 5 from 19. Losers - Firm 0 from 1, Soft 0 from 4, Heavy 0 from 1, AW Slow 0 from 3

Class - All wins have been class B through to F, 6 losing races at Listed and above. Breaking it down - F - 1 from 3, E - 2 from 11, D - 3 from 9, C - 3 from 21, B - 2 from 15. Losers - Listed 0 from 2, Gp3 0 from 3, Gp1 0 from 1.

Distance - he has only ever won at 6 or 7 furlongs. 15 losing races at 5 or 8 furlongs. - breaking it down further - 6f - 8 from 28, 7f - 3 from 22. Losers - 5f - 0 from 6, 8f - 0 from 5.

Size of field - 9 of his wins were in fields of 8 to 14 runners, no wins in 2 races of 5 to 7, and one each in 15 to 18, and 19+

Courses - he has run at 19 different courses - but only won at Ayr (1 from 3), Haydock (1 from 5), Musselburgh (1 from 1), Newcastle (1 from 2), Southwell ( 1 from 9), Thirsk (1 from 4), Wolves (4 from 9), York (1 from 4)

Losing courses were - Ascot (1 run), Beverley (4), Catterick (1), Doncaster (6), Hamilton (1), Lingfield (5), Newbury (2), Newmarket (1), Pontefract (2), Ripon (3), Warwick (1)

In summary it looks like he's worth backing in any 6 or 7f race at GTF through to GTS and Standard going, at no higher than class B. Lay him at 5 or 8f, and at listed class or higher.

Maybe not enough stats on some courses to be certain of their significance, but we've enough to give us an idea of when he's more (or less) likely to win.... :)

[John]

Excellent post Campbell, although we have to remember that the past isn't an exact guide for the future - that's life I'm afraid, but this does make things a lot clearer from a punter's perspective. I'm not sure what first attracted me to backing Quito - I think it was the name, and at the time he was winning a lot of races. Nice horse. :)

[tangdynasty]

[QUOTE=tangdynasty]did u guys notice that quito only won in big price & this horse rarely win twice in a row :wink

[Workshy]

Wins only in handicaps & conditions races so we can discount Group/Listed events etc.

Personally, I think his next run wont be 'the one' as its a mile listed race. After that, start looking for him in a 6/7f conditions/handicap race. :)

[John]

Saturday Reminder (thanks Phil originally)

3.10 Newmarket - 1m Listed Race.

The currently declared going is Soft though, and the stats represent 0 from 4 on Soft. It's make your mind up time.

[bigcumba]

Also never won at above class B - this is listed, so another negative point, and it's a mile - never won at above 7f. Looks like a dead cert lay to me!

[John]

Yeah, and to me too now you mention those points. Now watch it go and win!

[markwales]

6f listed in 10 mins time.

Good to Sft ground.

[mathare]

As it's listed I guess it's a lay under BigC's stats...

[Steven Gerrard]

I've backed it in my lucky 15 :) Good luck.

[markwales]

I've layed it...

[markwales]

0 from 6 at Donny thus far too..

[markwales]

Disaster

[TheOldhamWhisper]

I kept the faith - Get In!

[Steven Gerrard]

Nice one, 1st winner 7/2 not bad. Come on other 3. Make my day. :)

[John]

Missed it completely :splapme

[bigcumba]

As did I thankfully - would have gone with the lay as well on the stats I did....