Thread: Mathare's Systems
10th November 2003 #1
Some of might recall that several weeks back I started dallying with some systems and was posting the qualifiers on here. They all started to go dreadfully and it looked as if I might be better off laying all my qualifiers. So I added in a bit of maths to my spreadsheet to see if that was really the case.
Well, my systems have returned for a short while. I no longer have the time to post all the qualifiers but I can bring you the stats from time to time.
There are 10 systems I have been looking at. In brief, and without disclosing too many of my rules for now, these are:
A - applies to all racing, uses Sun's tips
B - applies to flat handicaps only
C - a system for handicap chases
D - short-priced favourites system
E - dutching weak NH favourites
F - applies to NH favourites
G - system for nicely priced jumpers
H - only applies to flat 2-y-o racing
I - Templegate's tips
J - Tom Pepper's tips
The last two are nothing special, just a record of the tips from the Sun's two tipsters. I am using them more as a baseline for comparing my other systems. Note systems E and H involve having two runners in every qualifying race so their strike rates can never exceed 50% (ignoring the rare dead heats).
Here's the stats for backing all qualifiers. All profits are shown to a 1 point level stake for each qualifier, except for systems E and H. E involves dutching 2 points per qualifying race and H involves staking 3 points per race with qualifiers:
A 28.25% -39.18
B 11.58% -60.22
C 18.86% -15.66
D 38.10% -7.67
E 50.00% +4.19
F 27.13% -35.56
G 18.18% -3.25
H 22.28% -22.69
I 27.32% -5.33
J 25.95% -32.66
Only one system makes a profit if we back all qualifiers, and that system has only had 6 qualifiers so that's hardly evidence for a sound system.
What about if we lay all qualifiers? All profits shown laying to a 1 point liability at SP + 20% as per Betfair's claim of 20% better odds
A 71.75% +9.04
B 88.42% +0.28
C 81.14% -5.15
D 61.90% +2.77
E 50.00% -2.77
F 72.87% +16.45
G 81.82% +1.22
H 77.72% +1.44
I 72.68% -8.05
J 74.05% -3.08
A bit better. Of the two showing a significant profit, F has made the most (theoretical) profit and done it using fewer qualifiers (94 winning lay bets (non-winning horses), 35 winning horses). And these stats are based on the unrealistic odds of SP + 20%.
In short it looks as if most the systems are going to fall into the middle ground where it is not worth backing or laying all the qualifiers without modifying the system to account for some of the winners/losers. System F does look interesting as a laying system though.
I will continue to follow these for a while and see what develops. I'll update you all in time.
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