trading masterclass (advice / opinions welcome)

[presto]

trading or arbing is something i have been interested in for a while, well scince i got into betfair, and although i am no expert i have enjoyed a pretty high success rate in trading (although very small stakes). it can also make an event more enjoyable / exiting to watch. - like the sky advert says 'it matters more when there is money on it'.

ok the title 'trading masterclass' may be a little wide of the mark, but hopefully i can pass on a little information / advice on trading / arbing. and hopefully others will have more to add.

INTRO
trading / arbing is basically trying to get a risk free bet on an event (green on all selections), although both methods are different this is the ultimate aim. the differences are as follows:

ARB (arbitrage) - backing a selection with a bookie / exchange - then laying the selection on an exchange at lower odd's than what you backed it at.
eg... back man utd @ 2.5 with ladbrooks. then lay man utd @ 2.3 on betfair.

TRADING - this is less straight forward than an arb, (and more risky). as you basically try and predict the market. if you think the odds will shorten - then back now, lay later. and vice versa - if you think the odd's will drift then lay now, back later.
eg... back PNE @ 2.5 lay later @ 2.35 (when the odd's shorten).

ESSENTIAL'S
- knowledge of the event / sport you are betting on.
- reliable, up to the date source of info (TV is ideal)
- broadband or fast internet connection helps.
- free time, - dont go off for your lunch without seeing the trade through.

TIPS FOR HORSE TRADING

observation - the fav will often shorten near the time of the race.
reason - people often 'blindly' bet on the fav. on course money.
tip - back the fav early on, preferably around 40 mins before the off, then lay off near the off, at lower odd's.

observation - long shots tend to drift nea the time of the race
reason - the shorter priced horses are shortening so to balance the book the longer prices drift. also the big layers tend to lay nearer the off.
tip - lay the bigger prices early on and bet back closer to the off. note- this can leave you with quite a big liability.

observation - i think this horse will win!
reason - you picked it
tip - i don't like fun bets, but if i do place one (rare) , after i place the bet on a horse i think will win i try and lay off for a free bet. if i can't lay off then no big deal as i have a bet on a horse i think will win.

TIPS FOR SPORTS (football) TRADING
football is my prefered trading fodder, although any sport you have knowledge of will be just as good. sports trading also has the advantage of being longer lasting than horse racing. so betting in-running is also available.

observation - i think this team will win!
reason - you picked it
tip - i don't like fun bets, but if i do place one (rare) , after i place the bet on a team i think will win i try and lay off for a free bet. if i can't lay off then no big deal as i have a bet on a team i think will win. - deja vu

observation - there tend to be quite a few late goals.
reason - if the game is close around 80 mins then each team will put more effort into nicking a late goal (and all 3 points) late on, this leads to more shots and shabbier defence, thus possibly a goal and a turnaround from the current result.
tip - if the game is close late on lay the short price, as a goal will make us happy - for little liability.

other systems:
lay the draw, then back, back after a goal.
dont try this although sound in theory, if the less fav side score first then the draw odd's will shorten.

lay the leader, and back, back after an equaliser.
this works quite well in close games, especially if there is an early goal

also if a team is very favoured i,e, 1.60 - then i tend to wait a while before placing a bet (around 15 mins) this is especially usefull as often the un-favoured team will start off very defensive (playing for a point) and the odd's will often start to drift (both teams) while the draw shortens. so the 1.60 shot will now be around 1.80 (much better backable odd's). however if an early goal is scored then we can think about 'laying the leader' as if the un-favoured team scores then there odds will roughly half - from around 5 to 2.5 - which is good to lay as there is plenty of the game to go. on the other hand if the favoured team scores then we can think about laying them at very short odds (i.e. <1.4) for not much liability - again with plenty of the game still to come. (although i tend not to do this when the favoured team goes in front).

BOTS
a bot is basically a piece of software that does what it is told by the programmer, ie back all selections (dutch) if the book % dips below 99%. they can also search many markets for arbs (spider bots), but can do no more than what the person has programmed them to do. however they can do the process lightning quick - unlike a person.
i think keith may be able to add more to this, as my knowledge on bot's is very limited, and i have never really used them.

GOLDEN RULES
- don't get greedy when trading, try and go all green as soon as possible.
- don't think that it is risk free. trades can go wrong. and arbs can go if a bookie claims an error in the odd's.


MUCH MORE TO COME

[tophatter]

very interesting stuff Presto and on a subject that is not that often brought up. Hopefully this may spark some ideas on this from others on here. Cheers

[presto]

quick but important note:

only use small stakes to start with.

........................

and just as i write this i am watching the WHU vs leeds game.
WHU trade @ 1.03 before conceding a last minuit pen.

i urge people to lay off bet's at low prices for very small liability to avoid dissapointment when trading.

[bigcumba]

Very good post Presto!! :) Going to make this a sticky as it should be a must read for anyone interested in this sort of betting - nice one!

[butterbean]

Class post mate, cheers for the info. Very well thought out and explained.

jimmy

[Merlin]

Nice Post Presto....great stuff....have some rep....

[Micky T]

quick but important note:

and just as i write this i am watching the WHU vs leeds game.
WHU trade @ 1.03 before conceding a last minuit pen.

i urge people to lay off bet's at low prices for very small liability to avoid dissapointment when trading.

Good stuff Presto,
Can you run us through this one on how you got a min of £4.00 profit on the game.

[icebreaker]

Excellent post, presto. I too have had a lot of fun on trading.

Speaking of Trading, I would respectfully suggest that there are two distinct sub-divisions. There is Positional Trading as you described whereby one takes a view on whether a price will contract or drift out. This is actually a gamble in itself -- unless the player is highly experienced in the art of compiling a "book" or tissue himself or is armed with some insider info from the stable. Then there is Momentum Trading which can give you the rollercoaster ride of your life and is great adrenalin-fuelled fun.In this you get on a back or a lay when a market movement starts happening. With a little experience you can soon get a feel from the volumes of money for the direction a price will go (a couple of large blocks of Lays a tick or two below the current trading price usually have the effect of driving out a price). But watch out for the "spoof" bets in these cases. Me, I do Momentum Trading exclusively. However it does help if you have broadband and an automated software set-up (Autobet etc.).

One piece of advice I would give is to always set yourself a price that you will get out of a trade at. Say you have layed at 5.0 but the price starts going in the wrong direction (downwards) then set yourself to back at 4.7. Take the small loss, Never hold out for a turnaround ........ you'll get creased!

[presto]

Good stuff Presto,
Can you run us through this one on how you got a min of £4.00 profit on the game.

sure

WHU odd's before KO were 1.68 - i thaught they would win but waited a bit for better odd's, i then backed £10 @ 1.81 halfway into the first half.

odd's at HT were 2.00

in the 50th minuit WHU scored 1-0

i then layed them £18 @ 1.28
(a slight miscalculation on my behalf, where i layed a little too much)

i then backed WHU £4 @ 1.26
to get a similar profit no matter what result.

i was then all green, and stopped betting and watched the rest of the game.

[Micky T]

Thanks for that Presto.

[presto]

Then there is Momentum Trading which can give you the rollercoaster ride of your life and is great adrenalin-fuelled fun.In this you get on a back or a lay when a market movement starts happening - icebreaker

i have never tried this kind of trading before, although i can see where you are comming from, and may give it a go. a question though - how soon before a race do you start trading, as the momentum only really gets going in the last 20 mins before they run, does this leave enough time to identify the momentum pattern and back and lay.

One piece of advice I would give is to always set yourself a price that you will get out of a trade at. Say you have layed at 5.0 but the price starts going in the wrong direction (downwards) then set yourself to back at 4.7. Take the small loss, Never hold out for a turnaround ........ you'll get creased!
good advice - better to take a guaranteed 'small loss' than risk a big loss.

[presto]

Thanks for that Presto.

no worries micky,
can you see the image? as i don't seem to be able to see the jpeg though i can see the bmp.

[thewebmaster]

i was just wondering if anyone could point me in the direction of these bots etc.?

I made up a quick spreadsheet to test for arbing, wouldn't try it myself after the chess experience, however your post has made me think about the possibility of just looking for the arbs
Software is included not very good but suitable just for me testing and playing really. Anyone have the really meaty software, i know it's out there somewhere :)

Thanks

[icebreaker]

a question though - how soon before a race do you start trading, as the momentum only really gets going in the last 20 mins before they run, does this leave enough time to identify the momentum pattern and back and lay.

Hello presto,
More often than not I won't bother looking at a horserace market until about fifteen minutes before the "off". At this stage I would also be keeping a close eye on the "Betting History" window of Betfair for the price movement graphs of the first three in betting. (It is only one of the first three in betting that I will ever trade in any race). It'll be only at around ten minutes before the off that volumes of money start to be seen. It could be five minutes before flag-fall that I would have my back or lay. Important, therefore, that you are watching the race on TV ............. last thing you want is to be caught holding a large Back without a Lay-back on it having missed the start!
A great advantage also is to have live track betting shows on your main Betfair screen as movements on-course will influence the Betfair market.

[John]

You sure know what you're talking about Presto, would you say you are successful regards arbing/trading? Great post nonetheless, I don't have a clue where to start when it comes to predict markets before the event!

[Win2Win]

Trading IN RUNNING is high risk and should not be done unless you have a crystal ball, even I don't get involved in anything as volatile as that.

I use software that automatically trades every 0.5 seconds on Betfair, you can pay the programmers with a Betfair API agreement to do this for you for a bundle of money.

Using software allows any trade that goes the wrong way to be cancelled, and set the other way, along with numerous other options. People who use software have a distinct advantage over everyone else, but even that those speeds it can still miss a bet and get you in deep water.

Trading on the exchanges requires the same intelligence that stock broker traders use, so if you know you can't do their jon, don't bother trying. One error can cost you a lot of money.

It is NOT a way of 'printing money', it can be very time consuming, and the guy I know who does this full time DOES NOT BET, or even care what the event is, as long as their is liquidity. He won't even watch any events, to distracting. He just stares at the graphs 8+ hours a day. It is not 'fun', but serious work if you wish to do it full time.

You need a big bank to make it pay. A £400 trade on a fav could make you £5, get distracted and you may say goodbye to the £400.

Stick to the first 3 in the betting, outsiders may drift, but you are tying a lot of money up for little return, and trading can be slow. Whereas a Fav can be traded numerous times a minute.

You will not get every trade right, but you should be quick enough to bail out, and re-trade to at least break even before the OFF of the event.

When I have the time and trade, it is usually a turnover of £2,000+ otherwise it just isn't worth the effort. This may mean trading £200 multiple times a minute.

You do not need inside information, it has nothing to do with that, as long as you have the software, understand the markets, and can react in less than a second to it, you can make it pay, but the majority don't.

Generally speaking, horse racing is the only sport to trade on, due to the high liquidity before the off, and fluctuations in prices you don't get with other sports which are more stable.

I may trade the Fav of a race that fluctuates between 1.30 & 1.36 for the ten minutes before the off. I may end up doing 30-40 trades on it in this period to rack up a decent profit to make it worthwhile. I then settle that profit to ensure every runner shows a profit.

This is another problem with outsiders, you seldom make enough to settle the bet at the end, leaving any potential profit running only on that one horse, and after all the risk and work, it is not an acceptable scenario.

ESSENTIAL'S
- knowledge of the event / sport you are betting on.
- reliable, up to the date source of info (TV is ideal)
- broadband or fast internet connection helps.
- free time, - dont go off for your lunch without seeing the trade through.

The first two have nothing to do with true trading, as you are playing the markets not the events. The last two are essential.

BOTS: They do not go around nicking your money. The trading software people use is not a BOT as all input is done by the user. As for ARBING, every single event must be input manually first before a BOT can check an arb.

So If I want to check across 4 exchanges the prices on every European footie match on a Saturday, I have to enter every team 4 times to the Arb list. This is very time consuming and almost impossible.

The stories of arbs going around picking up every single availabe arb is a myth. Their are also millions of arbs available each week if you know where to look, but you do need betting banks of over £5000 in each exchange/bookmaker to make it pay.

I re-iterate, no PROFESSIONAL trading does so in-running, as they can make enough before the OFF so have no need to increase risk. You also only need to take 1 or 2 points per trade, a few times to lock in a profit for each runner as long as you are quick, and are using short priced trades.

[presto]

You sure know what you're talking about Presto, would you say you are successful regards arbing/trading? Great post nonetheless, I don't have a clue where to start when it comes to predict markets before the event!

i wouldn't call myself successful yet SJ as i don't trade that often, maybe once or twice a day on a horse i want a free bet on, or with small (£10) stakes on a telivised event that i am watching (in-running) i would call this more 'fun trading' rather than 'proffesional trading'. and i think keith makes a good point about the differences between them.

[Vic]

I've had the offer of the book for £297 from The Winning Line's stable - thought about it, then saw that their super trader makes only £40k pa, my guess is that he trades a serious amount of money to achieve that - and couldn't do it if he had a job, so decided that it's not for me. Their software, which they don't say how much it costs to licence, sounds very similar to the s/w you are talking about Keith. Your comments much appreciated and convince me I'm right not to bother.

[Vic]

Only just realised there is a whole load of info above Keiths post - looks real interesting thanks Presto, once todays racing is over I'm going to have a good read.

[Win2Win]

If you can't sit at the computer all day, software is a waste of money. Trading is not betting, and needs to be treated as another full-time job.

Their is plenty of software around, but most is crap. It's best to use a reliable software house to do it for you, and supply the code for tweaking.

[Merlin]

Trading and ¨ messing¨around on Betfair is a full time job......Very few can make it pay.......its difficult to teach and learn - you have to experience it......which can prove costly.....play with VERY small amounts to get used to it if you must.....



The only area I play these days...is the Ante-Post market for lay-offs and free bets......but you have to be good at predicting movers..........again, you need to have a feel, a sort of intuition for it...........its gambling and dangerous.......ask Nick Leeson......

[icebreaker]

Very few can make it pay.......its difficult to teach and learn - you have to experience it......which can prove costly.....play with VERY small amounts to get used to it if you must

This may sound controversial, but, I honestly believe that to make trading a worthwhile project then you have to go MAXIMUM on all your trades! Bet your entire bank. The secret to minimising your liabilities is not to bet small but to limit your exposure to a market move that is going against you by getting out of that trade. If a price has gone even only one "tick" (0.02 of a point) above what you backed it , then Lay it for a miniscule loss. The old adage still holds true: Minimise losses and Maximise profits. If the price is going in your favour , stay in ........ if going against you get out immediately. Then again I should say that I am not a multiple trade-per-minute guy. I just do one trade in a race.

Nor do you need an enormous bank. Not many are aware that trading on Betfair allows you to leverage or "gear-up" your bank many multiples. This is the only form of betting that I know of where you can do this. For instance, if you have a £1,000 betting bank and not a penny more on deposit, you can realistically bet multiples of this quite legally....... leverage allows you to compound you profit. As in example below assume you bet your entire one grand bet on a 4/1 shot believing that the price will contract into 3/1:


Bet £1,000 at 5.0. Win £5,000
Lay £4,800 at 4.0 Win £1,200

Win overall £200 whatever the outcome, to your £1,000 bank.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

http://www.racingwhisper.com/Hedging.htm

Here's a little article I did a while back. Some may find it interesting.

Permission has been given to post the link.

[Merlin]

This may sound controversial, but, I honestly believe that to make trading a worthwhile project then you have to go MAXIMUM on all your trades! Bet your entire bank. The secret to minimising your liabilities is not to bet small but to limit your exposure to a market move that is going against you by getting out of that trade. If a price has gone even only one "tick" (0.02 of a point) above what you backed it , then Lay it for a miniscule loss. The old adage still holds true: Minimise losses and Maximise profits. If the price is going in your favour , stay in ........ if going against you get out immediately. Then again I should say that I am not a multiple trade-per-minute guy. I just do one trade in a race.

Nor do you need an enormous bank. Not many are aware that trading on Betfair allows you to leverage or "gear-up" your bank many multiples. This is the only form of betting that I know of where you can do this. For instance, if you have a £1,000 betting bank and not a penny more on deposit, you can realistically bet multiples of this quite legally....... leverage allows you to compound you profit. As in example below assume you bet your entire one grand bet on a 4/1 shot believing that the price will contract into 3/1:


Bet £1,000 at 5.0. Win £5,000
Lay £4,800 at 4.0 Win £1,200

Win overall £200 whatever the outcome, to your £1,000 bank.

Sure Ice.....the theory is sound.....its the practice that takes great skill....and knowledge and insight.....

I would never advise anyone to shift their whole bamk on one trade though......

Good Luck, Merl.

[icebreaker]

Hello Merlin,
Thanks for your reply.

Sure Ice.....the theory is sound.....its the practice that takes great skill....and knowledge and insight...

Nah, there's no great skill involved ........... and definitely no knowledge or insight is required. As was mentioned in another posters post earlier (W2W), knowledge or skill in the market you are trading is most definitely NOT a prerequisite. What is needed tho', most certainly, is Discipline...... a determination and willingness to get out when the trade moves even just a "tick" worse than your Back/Lay. That is my mantra. Actually, the whole thing is not the rocket-science that some people make it out to be.

You say that you "would never advise anyone to shift their entire bank on one trade". Why? Heh heh, that was a rhetorical question! I know the answer!!! It's because we are naturally restrained psychologically against taking risk. But the risk trading is minimal if you are focussed on getting out early on a bad trade. It is actually harder for me to have a £20 Win bet on a horse at 2/1 than to trade 100 times that on a No-Lose trade. My £20 Win bet is a gamble. I need to emphasise that everything written above and in previous posts is related solely to Momentum trading -- not Positional, yeah?

I'm off now to read OldhamWhisper's link.
Regards,
Ice.