trading or arbing is something i have been interested in for a while, well scince i got into betfair, and although i am no expert i have enjoyed a pretty high success rate in trading (although very small stakes). it can also make an event more enjoyable / exiting to watch. - like the sky advert says 'it matters more when there is money on it'.
ok the title 'trading masterclass' may be a little wide of the mark, but hopefully i can pass on a little information / advice on trading / arbing. and hopefully others will have more to add.
INTRO
trading / arbing is basically trying to get a risk free bet on an event (green on all selections), although both methods are different this is the ultimate aim. the differences are as follows:
ARB (arbitrage) - backing a selection with a bookie / exchange - then laying the selection on an exchange at lower odd's than what you backed it at.
eg... back man utd @ 2.5 with ladbrooks. then lay man utd @ 2.3 on betfair.
TRADING - this is less straight forward than an arb, (and more risky). as you basically try and predict the market. if you think the odds will shorten - then back now, lay later. and vice versa - if you think the odd's will drift then lay now, back later.
eg... back PNE @ 2.5 lay later @ 2.35 (when the odd's shorten).
ESSENTIAL'S
- knowledge of the event / sport you are betting on.
- reliable, up to the date source of info (TV is ideal)
- broadband or fast internet connection helps.
- free time, - dont go off for your lunch without seeing the trade through.
TIPS FOR HORSE TRADING
observation - the fav will often shorten near the time of the race.
reason - people often 'blindly' bet on the fav. on course money.
tip - back the fav early on, preferably around 40 mins before the off, then lay off near the off, at lower odd's.
observation - long shots tend to drift nea the time of the race
reason - the shorter priced horses are shortening so to balance the book the longer prices drift. also the big layers tend to lay nearer the off.
tip - lay the bigger prices early on and bet back closer to the off. note- this can leave you with quite a big liability.
observation - i think this horse will win!
reason - you picked it
tip - i don't like fun bets, but if i do place one (rare) , after i place the bet on a horse i think will win i try and lay off for a free bet. if i can't lay off then no big deal as i have a bet on a horse i think will win.
TIPS FOR SPORTS (football) TRADING
football is my prefered trading fodder, although any sport you have knowledge of will be just as good. sports trading also has the advantage of being longer lasting than horse racing. so betting in-running is also available.
observation - i think this team will win!
reason - you picked it
tip - i don't like fun bets, but if i do place one (rare) , after i place the bet on a team i think will win i try and lay off for a free bet. if i can't lay off then no big deal as i have a bet on a team i think will win. - deja vu
observation - there tend to be quite a few late goals.
reason - if the game is close around 80 mins then each team will put more effort into nicking a late goal (and all 3 points) late on, this leads to more shots and shabbier defence, thus possibly a goal and a turnaround from the current result.
tip - if the game is close late on lay the short price, as a goal will make us happy - for little liability.
other systems:
lay the draw, then back, back after a goal.
dont try this although sound in theory, if the less fav side score first then the draw odd's will shorten.
lay the leader, and back, back after an equaliser.
this works quite well in close games, especially if there is an early goal
also if a team is very favoured i,e, 1.60 - then i tend to wait a while before placing a bet (around 15 mins) this is especially usefull as often the un-favoured team will start off very defensive (playing for a point) and the odd's will often start to drift (both teams) while the draw shortens. so the 1.60 shot will now be around 1.80 (much better backable odd's). however if an early goal is scored then we can think about 'laying the leader' as if the un-favoured team scores then there odds will roughly half - from around 5 to 2.5 - which is good to lay as there is plenty of the game to go. on the other hand if the favoured team scores then we can think about laying them at very short odds (i.e. <1.4) for not much liability - again with plenty of the game still to come. (although i tend not to do this when the favoured team goes in front).
BOTS
a bot is basically a piece of software that does what it is told by the programmer, ie back all selections (dutch) if the book % dips below 99%. they can also search many markets for arbs (spider bots), but can do no more than what the person has programmed them to do. however they can do the process lightning quick - unlike a person.
i think keith may be able to add more to this, as my knowledge on bot's is very limited, and i have never really used them.
GOLDEN RULES
- don't get greedy when trading, try and go all green as soon as possible.
- don't think that it is risk free. trades can go wrong. and arbs can go if a bookie claims an error in the odd's.
MUCH MORE TO COME