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Thread: Staking queries that are doing my head in!

  1. #1

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    Question Staking queries that are doing my head in!

    Just wondering if some of the wise old heads of the board could advise me about staking.

    I'm struggling to get my head around what is the best staking strategy. With level stakes you know exactly where you are and how much to stake. But would you really back a 50/1 shot the same as a odds on jolly?

    No? Then that brings us to the next approach - decrease the stake in proportion to the increase in the price.

    But then I have seen some people advise the opposite, especially with systems where every selection is deemed to have the same chance regardless of odds. This is something I call SP staking (I don't know if this is its real name or if indeed it has one!). This works by increasing the stake in proportion to the odds. For example, at evens you bet 1 point at 2/1 you bet two points, at 7/2 you bet 3.5 points etc. The idea seems to be that you capitalise on the bigger wins.

    All these apparently contradictory approaches have left me not knowing what to do. Please help!

    I also have some questions about each way staking and dutching staking:

    It seems to me that a sliding scale should be used when betting on a horse to both place and win. My reasoning is this: a horse at 5/1 has a much greater chance of winning (statistically speaking) than a 25/1 shot. So a split stake bet to win and place should reflect these different probabilities. Just doing an automatic 1pt each way as a matter of course would seem illogical. Some sort of proportional approach would seem to be needed. Does anyone know of such a thing or how to go about devising one? I can imagine it would take the form of a table of odds and stakes or a basic calculator program.

    I have a similar query regarding stakes for dutching. Rather than backing each of the horses with the same stake it would seem to make more sense to back them in proportion to their odds as this, in the long-term, best reflects their chance of winning. For example, you may want to back one horse at 3/1 and one at 7/1. Dutching would suggest that you should split your stake into 2/3 and 1/3 to secure the same return. But is there a way of staking that reflects the expected chance of winning as reflected by the odds?

    Any advice would be welcome to stop my brain from hurting!

    Cheers,

    Craggy



  2. #2

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    Try this for a start Craggy.
    http://www.win2winracing.com/staking.shtml

    It's hard to have a battle of wits when your opponent is unarmed.


  3. #3

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    Calling the big guns, Keith, Big Cumba, etc.

    Thanks for the reply sparky. I've read that page before and it is useful. But it doesn't answer my main queries.

    Does anyone else have any pointers?

    Cheers,

    Craggy :)



  4. #4

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    "What is the best staking strategy?" you ask. What are you betting on?

    What's your expected strike rate, average odds, longest losing/winning run etc.?

    If you have all your selections in a spreadsheet or a format that can be converted to spreadsheet easily I suggest you check out the Staking Plans spreadsheet in the Downloads area and find out the above stats as well as testing a few staking plans that are in there.



  5. #5

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    My personal opinion is to bet a percentage of the current bank.
    The reason I prefer this to all others is that it is independent of when you get a win but can maximise your increase with the correct percentage.

    If you have to place all your bets on in one go then you can work out what the average amount you would bet for your decreasing bank and then bet the average or adjust this a bit based on posibility of one or two wins.
    e.g
    Bank Stake@3%
    100.00 3.00
    103.00 3.09
    99.91 3.00
    96.91 2.91
    94.00 2.82
    91.18 2.74
    Average stake for 6 bets = 2.887 to 3 dec. places with one win.

    Marcus

    I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question


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