Thread: I am going mad.
14th April 2005 #1
I am going mad.
I have layed Lisbon tonight. I am not used to Betfair but the penny has just dropped that if I had dutched the other two resuults away/draw with the same stake I would have won more for that bet then the layif Lisbon loses. If that is the case why have people layed Lisbon. Have they all lost it like me?
14th April 2005 #2
Can anybody explain please why lay Lisbon when as I say dutch the other two and win more if Lisbon lose.
14th April 2005 #3
S.E., .......... can you post the odds of the three options (1,2,X) available on Betfair at the time you struck the bet?
14th April 2005 #4
No I am sorry I cant. But just looking at the bookies normal odds I would have won more if Lisbon had lost had I dutched.
14th April 2005 #5
14th April 2005 #6
Then, what were the bookies odds .......... ???
14th April 2005 #7
I think it was something like 4/6 11/4 9/4.. I got carried away wanting to start to lay. A novelty.
14th April 2005 #8
I just didn't do my home work At my age I want locking up. Going for a drink now.
14th April 2005 #9
Respectfully, I would say you are mistaken in believing you were "done". Because it is really so unlikely (that there would be an under-round on an event at a specific time in any one individual market be it Betfair or Bookie) to be almost non-existent. No Bookmaker odds compiler would ever price up an under-round (less than 100%) book. The opposite is always the case (i.e., over-round) ........ even on Betfair.
14th April 2005 #10
Those odds dont look right to me...
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
14th April 2005 #11
Draw @ 9/4
Toon @ 12/5
14th April 2005 #12
Which makes an over-round book of 108%. Expected "house edge" for the bookmaker.
14th April 2005 #13Originally Posted by Stewards enquiry
er.. what was that you just said Stewards ? Going for what....
15th April 2005 #14
15th April 2005 #15
You don't have to apologise for having a beer! You had a drink ......... no need for sackcloth and ashes.
Anyway, a final comment on your thread question: Going on Mathare's prices on that footie game .............. Lisbon - 10/11
.............. Draw - 9/4
.............. Toon - 12/5
These fractionals convert into ................ 0.91,
Now, assuming you had a stake of £20, your bet (a Lay) on Lisbon will return £42.50.
If you dutched the same twenty on the Newc win or the Draw (£10 on each) the most you could expect to retrieve would be £34.
So, your fear on losing out on the Lay is, I'm afraid, unfounded. The over-round will get you every time.
15th April 2005 #16
Thanks for that. A big help.
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