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31st August 2005 #1
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Best odds against favourite of the day.
3.05 Newton Abbot – SCALLOWAY at 5/4
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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31st August 2005 #2
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Forgot to mention - dont go betting these.......have no stats or idea how it will pan out......I only thought it up last night.........
The basic idea is to be on an in form horse who is not being asked to do something he/she hasnt done before , with a jockey on who knows the animal - and is forecast at odds against.......anything near a 40% strike , I will be well pleased....
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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31st August 2005 #3
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How do you define 'in form horse'? I might be able to put some stats together for you from Jan 1st 05.
Marcus
I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question
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31st August 2005 #4
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Thanks MM....
A horse that won last time out........within 30 days..............in the same or higher class than todays race
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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31st August 2005 #5
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Ok I will get to work on sorting out some results for you tonight after the racing.
Marcus
I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question
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31st August 2005 #6
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Hmmm Class might be a bit tricky though, prize money and Class seem to be very different things and they have redefined race classes too
.
Marcus
I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question
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1st September 2005 #7
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STATS
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SELECTIONS 1
WINNERS 0
LSP -1
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THURSDAYS QUALIFIER(S)
3.30 CARL - QUANTICA @ 9/2
4.00 CARL - HULA BALLEW @ 11/4
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Strictly speaking I am only looking for 1 qualifier per day.........my filter makes HULA BALLEW the bet....but will keep a record of all qualifiers....
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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1st September 2005 #8
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I see you're not put off by "Merlin's Profit" running in the same race as Hula Ballew? Ooo
This has the makings of a very interesting thread ... watching with interest, here. Good luck!
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1st September 2005 #9
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I will be betting Merlins Roberto.......
........owes me nothing......
Got to be onest with these system/method selections.......even if you dont fancy the bugger................
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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1st September 2005 #10
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Looks the beginnings of a cracking Lay System here - with 2 favourites getting stuffed.........
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #11
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FRIDAY QUALIFIERS
........................................
3.25 - JACKIE KIELY
3.45 – OUNINPOHJA
The selection is OUNINPOHA
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #12
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Looks an interesting system merlin.......I am laying OUNINPOJA today because all his 4 wins been on left handed tracks :wink
Frontrunner
A BAD DAY AT THE RACES IS BETTER THAN A GOOD DAT AT WORK.
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2nd September 2005 #13
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Can I ask why you rejected these selections?
Mersey Sound Newmarket.July 04:50
My Girl Pearl Chepstow 05:00
Or I have winner last time out distance winner less than 30 days
Al Alba Chepstow 3:55
Ceiriog Valley Haydock 5:10
Loop The Loup Newmarket.July 4:50
Night Storm Chepstow 4:30
Marcus
I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question
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2nd September 2005 #14
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Sure MM....
MM, the horse (in my flawed) logic must have won its last race, and be Racing Post Forecast favourite........
Originally Posted by MarcusMel
Good Luck Front......
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #15
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Ahhhh Thank you - Now I can refine the selection criteria.
The 7pound claimer on Jackie Kiely is worrying as they have never won on the horse.
Marcus
I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question
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2nd September 2005 #16
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Ok Merl past data still only brings the SR to 27% (29% if you get rid of claiming jockies).
So your hoping for a 10% shift by having the jocky having rode the horse before
57% of non claiming jockies make it to place the horse in the first three. HELLO PLACE LAY SYSTEM :D
Marcus
I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question
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2nd September 2005 #17
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Thanks MM.......
When I suggested 40% I was being an optimistic dreamer .....
I had no idea of the stats.........I just planned to post the selections and see which way the wind was blowing after about 100 live selections.....
Could be a good lay system if they continue to get beat........in essence , although prima facie the horse is in form, and has a chance at the distance etc......They may well turn out to be bad value favourites.......
Anything else you turn up would be most welcome......
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #18
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A winner.......dont know whether to rejoice or what.....
........
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #19
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Stats
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Selections 3
Winners 1
Lsp + 0.25
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #20
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Well done Merlin, Take a bow I've finished licking my wounds
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2nd September 2005 #21
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I never rejoice at someone losing mate(unless ita a bookie).....but always admire the courage of someone putting their neck on the block..............
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #22
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besides.....you had valid reasons for laying this....and as I understand it , the horse hung badly left in the closing stages too.....
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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2nd September 2005 #23
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Saturday
................
QUALIFIERS
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1.00 FOLK - ETCHING - 9/2
9.30 WOLV - REGAL DREAM - 7/2
.............................................
Selection is REGAL DREAM
Out of all the races available tommorow.........the selection is in the last race of the day at Woolybags......
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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4th September 2005 #24
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SELECTION LOST YESTERDAY
SUNDAY
.............
QUALIFIERS
........................
FLYING KEY 2.10
moscow blue - 2.20
friendly request - 4.05
SELECTION IS:
2.10 - FLYING KEY
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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4th September 2005 #25
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Stats
................
Selections 5
Winners 1 (9/4)
LSP - 1.75
...........................
STATS ALL QUALIFIERS
...............................
Selections 8
Winners 1 (9/4)
LSP - 4.75
...............................
The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.
Mark Twain.
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