system test selections.

[system1]

coutry cousin 3rd eachway.

[wb]

I have no idea what the Profit or Loss of this system is.

Nor me. System, can you please state your stake, bank, P&L etc.

[system1]

ok, your not going to like this.
i use a modified martingale staking system. I bet in blocks of 5, if i dont win in five , i split the target in half and chase the both targets each in other blocks of 5. when i split i stick to the original target (i.e say the target has risen to 20 and the original target was 5 the new target after the split would be 12.5, so when the winner comes in i still hit the target.
I know you will say this is risky and i will meet a long losing run soon, but so far the system has absorbed them. i,ve been doing it for around 2 months, but seriously logging all the details for 5 weeks. The worst so far has been 2 back to back losing blocks of 5, which i managed to put write in a few days. I will continue to see what it throws up, if i get a bad run it will be an opportunity to refine the system further. it depends on a good selection system and i think i,ve got one.

[wb]

Fair enough, but it would be handy to post p&l and how the bank is doing.
Well done with the selections by the way

[system1]

Since it has been suggested that stopping at a winner is not sensible, io have been working through my past selections. if i would have gone to 2 blocks of 5 in a day were possible ( if i have hit my target in the 5 the remaider can be made up to another block of 5) , i would have hit my target 20 times in the last 15 days. I havent been staking with figures, its the losing runs im interested in. i aim to run it for a while and determine my bank by working out how costly the losing runs would be. what ever that figure might be i would aim to treble it at least to set the bank. however much money i can raise will determine the target.

remember i,m still learning

[Win2Win]

Remember, we've all done that and are just trying to save you time :)

[system1]

if your all right, theres a losing streak coming to wipe me out. but when, and why? and can i find a way to ride it out? i appreciate all comments and advice, i am learning a lot from the forum, but you know how it is when learning lessons, sometimes you have to learn it first hand.

[bigcumba]

sometimes you have to learn it first hand.

That may be true, but when it does happen (and it will, believe me!) I only hope it doesn't bite you on the too painfully... and like everyone else I'm speaking from bitter experience.

[system1]

i had a bitter experiance about 2 years ago, i devised a system that involved making multiple bets across the field with betfair. it worked on paper during stupidly short paper trial, i switched to cash too soon and got wiped out. i wont switch too early this time.

[system1]

todays selections backed to win
Stratford
2:40 - Beginner's Chase - reel misile
3:10 - Selling Hurdle - soviet joy
5:10 - National Hunt Flat - fredensborg
Taunton

2:50 - Beginner's Chase - give me love
3:50 - Handicap Chase - jupon vert
4:50 - Class Chase - bar gayne

[system1]

a losing day! who,d have thought it

[system1]

my records show Ive got a 85% chance of hitting a winner in tomorrows block of 5. and a 39% chance of it coming in the first selection.

[kookooheed]

so if you got a 39% chance of hitting in the 1st selection it must be a 6/4 chance. am i right. i also get the impression that you are in your young twenties and thinking that this sport is an easy game.believe me this is a long journey,and to make long term profits takes a lot of hard work.listen to the guys on this site because they put in a lot of hard work and have a lot of winning and losing experience

[system1]

I,m listening and learning. I,m not saying i,m going to get rich quick, but i know i,ve got a way of making a small steady stream of money. I expect things to go wrong from time to time, and have ways of dealing with it. My selection methods are good and getting better, because i,m learning. my aim is to set a bank in a few months that will support my system. If i get 3 losing days in a row, I,ll stop posting.

[system1]

I know that everyone is probaly of sick of people like me on the forum, but i have faith in my system, all i ask is let me prove myself with my selections over time. give me some time, and if i,m wrong i,ll accept it.

[MarcusMel]

If the system is a winning one long term then you want to work out when to stop betting into a loseing streak. While it makes no difference long term wether you bet into a losing streak at level stakes it is a significant difference for geometic (erm losses out of control) staking system. So since it is known that wins bunch together stop betting after a losing bunch of 5 and wait for a winner to signal when to start betting again.

[system1]

Its been on trial for 2 months, but only 5 weeks of good record keeping, so its not long term yet. I have been able to absorb the losing days easily so far. it means i dont hit many targets as quickly if i get more than 2 a week, at the moment the average losing days per 7 day week is 1.75. i believe i can get that down, as since i,ve tightened up my rating system results have improved a lot. I am waiting for a bad streak, to see what it throws up, i have several ideas to mimimise the damage of this streak, i think i can contain a losing streak, accepting that targets will slow down dramatically during it. I will be applying this wait for a winner to start again to my results.
my system doesnt rely on level stakes profits, but recently i have been using it as a gauge for my results, obviously the better my level stakes profits, the less strain on the bank.

[MarcusMel]

I repeat:- No method of chosing horses or staking can be profitable if the system is a losing one at level stakes.

[system1]

Cheltenham
2:00 - 2m Novices'Hurdle - masafi
2:35 - Arkle Chase (2m) - racing demon
3:15 - Champion Hurdle - brave inca
4:00 - Handicap Chase - moulin riche
4:40 - Country Handicap - native jack
5:20 - Handicap Hurdle - ouste

without the restrictions of the selection method i,m working with I would have gone for foreman in the 2.35 and commanche war paint in the 4.40

[system1]

I disagree marcus. you,ve had your say I,ve had mine.

[system1]

Publishing my selections has served its purpose for now, I was lookin at my records last night, and i think i,ve made a breakthrough on selections, a figure has been jumping out at me for a while, i woke up this morning with the solution. I am also experimenting with a second compound bank, more research for a while, then i,ll be back to publish my new improved selections with a bank to prove the system.

[MarcusMel]

Wishing you luck - and thankyou for publishing here.