Anyone any thoughts on correct score predictions? I know there are numerous threads out there and I have spent a lot of time analysing data, past results etc.

The main problem I come up with is the nature of football i.e. the relatively small number of goals scored. When you average these out over a number of seasons it gets possibly less meanginfull.

What am basically doing is comparing (H)ome (G)oals (F)or with the (A) (Goals) (A)gainst and getting the average which will be my home team score. Doing the reverse for the away team, HGA - AGF and this will be my away teams score. But the amount of reuslts that come in at 1.344, 1.674 etc. etc.

So it boils down to what do you do with a figure like 1.344. Straightforward rounding will obviously give you 1.0 and technically that's correct. I have tried applying a 'weighting' to my rounding so that it only rounds up if the remainder is > .8 (1.79 would still be 1.0) but I feel like I'm 'dickying' the figures.

This is what I have come up with for the first weekend and a lot of them do seem reasonable predictions.

Arsenal 2 1 Aston Villa
Bolton 1 1 Tottenham
Everton 1 1 Watford
Newcastle 1 1 Wigan
Portsmouth 2 1 Blackburn
Reading 2 1 Middlesbrough
Sheff Utd 1 1 Liverpool
West Ham 1 1 Charlton
Chelsea 2 1 Man City
Man Utd 2 1 Fulham

Appreciate this is far from an exact science (and Arsenal will probably knock 6 past Villa) but would appreciate feedback. Was also contemplating doing them in doubles (10 matches = 45 bets). If I got 2 correct scores I'd almost even break, 3/4 scores would be potentially lucrative.