Your Challenge, My F/C...

[Godspot]

I reckon there is enough racing for me to 5% your money twice today, all I need is two winners from the below:

What I’ll do is adjust my stake according to the odds of what I need to win, so

12.20 Weth, Ossmoses 7/2fc will do me, stands out from the whole meet.

£50*3.5= £15 on

12.40 Chep, Fighting Chance @ 11/4fc. (Nicholls, Daly(NR), Hobbs)

If that loses I now need £65*2.75= £24 on

12.45 Fairy, You Sir 7/2fc, Noted

If that loses, I’ll Need £90*3.5= £26. This process continues until we have a winner then the Need is brought back to £50 & we start again.

12.55 Sand, Henderson (3NR’s)vs Joli Classical, only Cottingham t’ bt, what about McCoy 7/2fc (10-7t, an Irish raider!) tho?

1.10 Chep, Nicholls, O’Neill, Bongo Fury 6/4fc, seriously Bubbling Under? I’d giver him a chance to prove the form of lastx.

1.15 Fairy, Militant 9/2fc, Noted

1.30 Sand, Cousin Nicky, Noted 2/1f fc, & looks pretty safe to me. Hobbs t bt, Knight, Mith Hill

1.45 Chep, Dancing Rock’s form profile of 70% plcd. Just about swings it for me 11/2 fc. (80% plcd (NR), 70% not fav).

1.50 Fairy, Back To Bid 4/1fc, Noted

2.15 Chep, I’ll just go with the jockey booking of TJ O’Brien on Young Lorcan 4/1 fc (Col Bev, Williams/Hobbs, Idiome, stands out)

2.25 Weth, Have to go with the 7/4 fc f , FTO

2.55 Fairy, I certainly have Cadogan 6/1fc, Noted! & Lagudin, 16/1fc as Bubbling Under.

3.25 Weth Jungle Jinx, Noted Split this with Harrovian. Col Bev,

3.10 Sand, A few Noted, Overstrand 8/1fc the best of? But Ruby @ 9/s fc. (won lastx, not fav,)

3.25 Fairy, The Wandering Man 2/1f fc, Noted.

3.40 Sand, Wild Is The Wind, Noted 13/2fc & Dunbrody stand out. A case can be made for Moorlands Again 11/1fc & I’d have a quid EW on Willie John Daly.

3.50 Chep, The Wexford Man 20/s fc, cld be my Nap. Had a choice of three, TR George? But it cld be the tongue strap that swings it. Just noticed Gaora Gale 9/s fc.

Hopefully it shld all be over by 3.00pm & i will have 10%'d your £1,000.

[Fadetoblack]

Cocky little sort aren't ya?

Good luck to ya all the same.

[Godspot]

Yeh may be!

But I cld just have easily done, Sophist, Fair Along & Royal Rosa but I'll stop @ Overstrand & that's your 10%.

Thank U

I do hope there 's decent racing in Ireland tomoz, coz I don't like the look of it over here!

[wb]

I do hope there 's decent racing in Ireland tomoz, coz I don't like the look of it over here!

It dont get much better than 3 Group 1 races!

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Just a warning to all our less experienced members:

The 'loss chasing' method of staking employed here is seriously dangerous and you should be aware that you could easily lose the full £1000 in one day trying to make that first 5% profit.

[bigcumba]

Ok, a point to be made here.... from what I can make of your staking here you are loss chasing to try and make that 5% profit each time. That's a basic mistake and one of the most stupid ways of staking you can use, and nothing you can say will change any of our minds about that... it's dumb... end of.

If my calculations are correct it took 5 races to get your first winner, and 8 to get your second (unless you had Kauto Star). Now how much of your £1000 bank had already gone down the toilet before you finally got each winner. Do you have the balls to handle such losing runs on a regular basis, seeing your bank down to maybe a third or less before hitting that winner... what if that all important final bet was to fall? What if it was an odds on jolly and you needed to use the whole bank to get bcak your losses? No one but no one here with any sense would ever suggest this is a good way of backing horses.. why not? Because we've all been there, and had it crash and burn... and no amount of cockiness will see you through it. This is for your own good, and also to help stop anyone else from falling for your somewhat misplaced overconfidence.

[mathare]

Where's the P/L then Godspot? That was part of the challenge remember...

[Godspot]

Don't want much u lot, how much time d'ye think I have? First things first tho.

Need Stake Rets
Ossmoses 7/2 50 15
Fight Chance 3/1 65 22
You Sir 7/2 87 30
McCoy 7/2 117 34
Bong Fury 2/1 151 76 227
Militant 9/2 50 12
Cousin Nicky evs 62 62
Dancing Rocks 5/1 124 25
Back To Bid 4/1 150 38
Young Lorcan 4/1 188 47
fav 2/1 235 118
Cadogan 6/1 353 60
Overstrand 8/s 413 52 468

591 695
104 , that's your 10%+

Can I just say to Mr Bigcumba, I'm sorry, I don't mean to sound cocky or over confident, i'm just 'buzzing' with excitement, i've only been on-line for three weeks but I love this bit of kit. However, this was an experimental rush job, there are things I wouldn't & would have done in real life; I wouldn't have done Cousin Nicky @ evs but I seriously fancied Fair Along (his RPR & his 4yo allowance gave him a squeak - like I opposed 14/14 tipsters with Supsonic on Fri). Admittedly Sat was poor in terms of numbers of winners & I never expected to be sitting here @ 3.10 shouting home Overstrand! Perhaps I shldn't have took in the Irish racing yesterday? There are many variables which I intend to streamline. Take today for instance, absolute donkeys here & 3 Grade 1's in Ireland, I'm going incorporate it (the Ire racing) today on basis of quality. My Racing Notebook is being updated everyday & I don't to stray away frm Noted horses too often. Whatever mate, horse selection/staking strategy, it's all just going to get better - this is just starting out....

[bigcumba]

OK first of all I asked if you would have the balls to withstand losing a big chunk of your bank to get a winner... add up the total stake you've placed to get that first winner, remembering this is a £1000 bank to begin with.

177 staked by the time of your 5th horse - over 17% of your bank gone in the first instance. So, you got your winner, therefore boosting your bank by that 5% to £1050, but in real life using real money you would have been quaking in your boots with that amount of your bank already gone because the stakes begin to rise sharply as you chase those losses.... it gets better though...

second time - 414 staked in total by the 8th horse - almost 40% of your bank gone, leaving you a mere £636 left, by this point you were probably only 2 or 3 horses away from going totally bust - and rest assured it will happen, we've seen it all before! This is why I made my initial post... we try to protect our members from garbage like this, yet you have the gall to say 'whatever - it will get even better', well to be honest it couldn't exactly get much worse than potentially losing your whole bank in one day!

As Oldham posted as well

The 'loss chasing' method of staking employed here is seriously dangerous and you should be aware that you could easily lose the full £1000 in one day trying to make that first 5% profit.

All I can say to anyone new here who may be reading this, is to avoid like the plague otherwise you could find youself losing an awful lot of money very quickly.

By all means Godspot, keep this thread going, but I'd suggest you sort out a much safer staking plan that doesn't involve chasing your losses.