AW - Sectional Timing - 1's-2-follow...

[Godspot]

3 c BOSCOBEL
M Johnston, This Derby entry’s figures suggest he is Listed class, if not better. The sectionals suggest he is about a stone better than he is rated & could be more so with a stronger early pace. Sire (Halling)’s progeny’s average winning distance is 10.4f & he can only get better over further than his maiden winning distance.

3 f DALVINA
E Dunlop, According to sectional times of her mdn win at Lingfield can be rated at least 7lb better & that is an underestimate. She’s almost certainly Listed class, too, at least.

4 g HASSAAD
W Haggas, Lightly raced, progressive 3yo, did hold a Crse Rec @ Kempton for a week or so but the sectionals he recorded through the race suggest he is well in advance of any rating he can be allotted by traditional h’capping methods (don’t tell Godspot, he may become an AW convert). Hassaad will probably stay 10f but will likely prove best at around a mile for the time being & could develop into a Lincoln contender.

3 f RAINBOW PROMISES(USA)
B Meehan, Won a mdn @ Lingfield in October & attracted ante-post support for 1,000 Guineas (now 14/1). Her sectionals can be translated into a figure in excess of 105, which suggest she is Listed class already. She is by a top American dirt horse at up to 10f, Came Home & it remains to be seen how she will fare with turf but she’ll have no trouble staying a mile.

5 m ZAVILLE
J O’Reilly, Progressive stayer with a decent turn-of-foot for a modest level. A dual CD winner @ Wolves, she is worth at least 5lb more than her present rating & can win another couple of staying h’caps.

Source: Graham North (monthly updates beginning Jan 3rd ’07, RP Weekender)

[Godspot]

Seeing as none of the above have even run yet, I hope no-one minds but I am adding these to this thread, I’m in no doubt that some of them will be transferring their ability to the 2007 turf campaign.

These are fast horses, if they haven't broken a track record, they are all running faster than standard.

Abandon, a well bred filly but trainer W Haggas has a poor record with first timers on the AW, however once they've had a run, his 3yo's plus have a 30+% sr next time in AW maidens.
Areyoutalkingtome, what he did last Saturday, in giving weight & a beating to other quality types marks him out as one to follow. TS Dave Edwards, AW man, R Young (the next Les Arcs) & Graeme North (a whole page & a ½ on one horse), all certainly seem to think so.
BaharShumaal
Challis
Cusoon
Descartes
Etlaam
Gentleman’s Deal, now in contention for AW Horse Of The Year & is fancied for Lingfield’s Winter Derby.
Players Please
Qadar
Saviours Spirit
Turn On The Style
Woodnook

That reminds me, it must be time to send off for my Final Flat Edition Black Book.

[Godspot]

3.05 Ling

Woodnook, this is a drop in class & 2 1/2l’s second to Areyoutalkingtome is pretty hot form, has been placed 3 from 4 with J Fortune on board. On a negative side, the best he’s done after a break (has been off track for 8 weeks) is be placed so far. However, he is the only one in the race who has more than one tip & a fc 7/2 about a horse who has 8/14, could make him worth a small win bet on that score alone.

3.40 Ling

Cusoon, could be a better class of animal than Mighty beat last time but statistically (jock/trnr combo) up against it, should be very close between these two.

[Mavrick]

I don't know anything about the AW but, if Woodnook has a performance pattern that suggest he will need a race after a lay off then surely he can't be a good thing.

Watch it go and win now.

[Godspot]

I reckon he'll be placed but he gets over 1/2 of the tips in the RP. Some research I did a while back suggests 7/4 is value about a horse with 8 tips.

Have you checked your mail lately?

[Mavrick]

It's here!!!

I didn't check yesterday.

Thanks alot bud.

[Godspot]

I should leave it till tomorrow though!

[Mavrick]

Well done with Woodnook. I knew soon as I opened my mouth that it would go and win:)

[Godspot]

I pretty much knew when I saw the odds. I'm no great fan of the AW but this little lot above could make me more interested, shame there is none entered for tomorrow cos there is not a lot else on though I haven't looked at Naas yet.

[Godspot]

3.50 Southwell

Saviours Spirit

Interesting little race this. The fc favourite, Red Cape, though he hails from a hot form race, has yet to prove he acts on this surface & could be worth taking on. Quiet Times makes a quick reappearance and too, ran in a hot little race but in recent visits here has only once been placed from four runs.

Our horse, on the other hand comes from a stable who doesn't send many here but has a 42% s/r at the course. Although he hasn't won here yet, he did run his second best speed figure over 5f last year & I reckon he's very safe for a place today at least.

[Godspot]

I’m going to have to do a review of this thread at some point later today because I know there a few lined up for tomorrow but I think like the pLAYtime (& may I say it could prove folly to ignore that one today as well) thread below, that this is one of my better ones. I have to say though that it only came about due to Susan seeking help for the AW, however, it was only a matter of time before I turned my attention to the Flat because like Keith says, now is the time of year when the better horses start making an appearance, today being a fine example:

4.30 Wolverhampton

3 c BOSCOBEL
M Johnston, This Derby entry’s figures suggest he is Listed class, if not better. The sectionals suggest he is about a stone better than he is rated & could be more so with a stronger early pace. Sire (Halling)’s progeny’s average winning distance is 10.4f & he can only get better over further than his maiden winning distance.

G. North

3yo top-weight's are always interesting & this is his trainer's choice of 4 entries for this race. I doubt very much though that we'll see any of the evens forecast about this one. A quality little race for this course.

[Godspot]

Boscobel, Won @ 8/11f but joined on the line for a dead-heat, I think we were robbed if it still holds that we have to halve the odds on such occasions. It’s interesting to note that one of our qualifiers, Challis, was entered up to run in the race after this won by Silkwood, who only won by a neck from a horse whose figures were slightly behind that of the aforementioned, in fact, Challis’s figures very much suggested to me that he would have had a great chance of winning Boscobel’s race & will look forward to seeing him in a handicap.

Saviours Spirit, 2nd @ 9/2, who I suggested was safe for a place at least got beat by a 12yo. That’s not quite as embarrassing as the 26 members of the West Somerset Pool League who have been beaten by my locals’ landlord’s son (Hi JJ), aged 11, he has an 82% sr. Especially as he is trained by sprint specialist, Dandy Nicholls. Never mind, bring on the summer, bring on the tourists, ‘D’ya wanna play for a fiver?’ :D

Woodnook, Wins @ 7/4f & this one is interesting because having noted that he may improve for the run, ran the time of the day & was only upped 1lb by the handicapper. I can see this one going in again, no probs!

Cusoon, 2nd @ 15/8, as predicted was up against it with Mighty (may have to add to list) in the race but I was not impressed with the way he was ridden. Fair enough it was a slow run race but he was being so hard held up, I was almost on the phone to the RSPCA before he was finally unleashed to come from last to 2nd (& blocked in) within the final furlong – there’ll be another day for this one.

Things seem to be going pretty much as expected but

I seem to have missed the running of one of G North’s lesser lights, that of Zaville @ South, Feb 8th, after finishing soundly beaten (again) she receives some negative rep, she has ability but needs to be able to dominate, from what I hear. Maybe just that the stable are out of form. In reality though, this is a lower class of animal than those that I like to deal with & I may have to scratch this one.

[Godspot]

3.50 – Ling, cracking little race with three runners from our little list:

Qadar, 2 tips, 6/1 fc
Maltese Falcon, 4 tips, 3/1
Turn On The Style, 8 tips, 7/4f fc. I like this, a course & distance record breaker last time, getting a stone, from albeit quality types, that aren’t. Basically, his last run suggests his rating should be up there with the top weights & as long as he gets out of the stalls in a similar manner, this should be the race that will warrant his rating getting upped a fair bit. 2.88 on Betfair is the best available odds as I write. Last look 2.7

[Godspot]

TURN ON THE STYLE, 8 tips, Wins @ 7/4f on Saturday. I’ve said before on this thread that 7/4 is value about a horse with 8 tips. I know we’re probably due a loser but

3.25 Lingfield – CHALLIS, 9 tips, 9/4f fc. Trainer has yet to field a winner this year but this looks his best prospect of having one so far. If you want to play safe & Dutch him with something else, you shouldn’t have to look too far, trainer Mark Johnston is knocking out his 3yo debutants with familiar regularity, & at this track, over this sort of distance, so Soldiers Quest could be considered.

We may not see much of Turn On The Style on the AW from now on, the trainer says he could be a good turf horse. But another to run a fast race on Saturday was PARTY BOSS & along with MIGHTY, who beat our CUSOON, last Saturday, I am including on this list for the time being.

[Godspot]

Cor Blimey! Another winner, what’s going on ‘ere then?

CHALLIS, Wins @ 11/10f, I don’t think this will affect his h’cap mark too much & could still take one, if he’s not on his way to better things.

SOLDIER'S QUEST, 2nd @ 2/1 Right, I have to nominate this chappie for immediate inclusion to the list & not just to an AW elite, this horse could go to Nad Al Sheba & land a blow for the Brits (maybe next year) but first, it’s worth mentioning that he fits into a little system, Mdn’s first two being 5l’s clear of the third. Spawned by a classic sire of three year olds for the flat, Rainbow Quest, this is OTF for the whole flat season. His ½ bro, Lend A Hand, who was second in the 2,000 Guineas, won 8 from 20 starts including two Gr3’s & an Italian Gr1. Being by Rainbow Quest though, there is more stamina at play & that’s already showing. His damsire, is also renowned for 3yo’s & I could go on & on…. & all that I’m sure adds a bit of weight to what I’m saying about Challis.

& hey! I tink I’ve just found a use for what I thought was a useless mountain of old books over there in that cupboard!

I’m not sure yet but I may have to add the 4.35 winner, Lisathedaddy to the list, she ran the time of the day & covered the same distance as Challis at over 1/10th of a second faster per furlong, which over this sort of distance on the flat, is worth noting.

Not a lot on today, though I have posted, Rosa De Mi Corazon in the 5.00, on the FAV’s.FC thread & it maybe worth mentioning that I couldn’t help but notice on Saturday that her speed figure gave her a chance of winning Boscobel’s race, this is a much weaker affair.

[Godspot]

At some point in the near future I’m going to create another thread for the Flat & a few of these should make their way onto it but in the meantime our little list needs a few additions.

4yo c ASIATIC BOY(ARG) M F De Hock, going for the UAE Derby

4yo c BILLICH E J O’Neill 83, lost out by a neck in Night Cruise’s 15yo track record breaker, should be able to find a stayer’s race & if we do ever get some firm ground??

3yo f FOLK(USA) I Mohammed, going for the UAE Oaks, ran the time of the day when beating her elders in the 1,000G’s.

3yo c MASTERSHIP(IRE) C E Brittain 96, reason to believe he is better than a handicapper.

4yo g NIGHT CRUISE(IRE) J A Osborne 82, recently broke Ling(AW)'s 16f, fifteen-year-old course record on only 4th career start. Has won 2/4 & improved TS with every run. A must for inclusion.

5yo h PARTY BOSS C E Brittain 106aw, 93flt, may have made a mistake with this one, he’s just been upped 9lb, will have to see where he goes after Saturday’s fine recording on the timepiece.

3yo f STORYBOOK(UAE) M A Jarvis 92, 2/2 & did well to deny our Boscobel a clear cut win.

[Godspot]

Not altogether sure what’s going on with this thread but I think we’re on 7/7 positive predictions. One of our list is set to run in Dubai, that’s a long way to go for a loser but one of my passwords is love2lose & right now I’m getting desperate!

5.00 Nad Al Sheba – Descartes, 7/2f fc. Poorly drawn on first run for over a year when a beaten favourite over CD last time. Every chance he’ll settle better after that, has a better draw, has cheek pieces for the first time & has Frankie riding at near his riding weight, is 4lb better off for a 2l’s beating when he possibly needed the race, top RPR, gotta be worth a $

If either Descartes or Remaadd should win that one, then I’m sure we could spare a dime for

6.35 Nad Al Sheba – Quorum, who split the above pair last time & would automatically become interesting from a good draw in what strikes me as a less competitive affair.

[Godspot]

Sorry folks, he's a doubtful starter, so scratch that above post. There's an interesting ting going on in the last at Clonmel though which I have posted on the Irish Racing thread.

[sparkyminer]

There's an interesting ting going on in the last at Clonmel though which I have posted on the Irish Racing thread.

It'll be the groundsman with his fork. It was called off hours ago. :)

[Godspot]

Didn't say that in the RP though & while there were people viewing, I was just trying to save 'em time.:)

[Godspot]

'ere we go, 2,3,4!

2.30 Ling(AW) 4yo+ (0-99)

SAVIOURS SPIRIT, is going to struggle at this trip, from this draw & especially in this better company. No Bet.

3.05 - 4yo+ List’d

AREYOUTALKINGTOME 2/5f fc Pretty solid & is a qualifier on both other system threads (So Clear & FAV’s.FC) A win is predicted but
QADAR 7/s fc
WOODNOOK 16/s fc At a serious disadvantage at the weights but has a 2/4/7 win/plce/run record on the AW & at the forecast odds could well be worth a go for a place.

3.40 – 4yo+ List’d

CUSOON 8/1fc
PARTY BOSS 9/2 fc
MIGHTY 5/1

What with last year’s winner & our three listed horses, this is some race! But alas, by Jove! I tink I have the answer! Fingers crossed anyway but

Party Boss clocked a fast time only last week but is pretty much untried & untested over this trip. Mighty is on a roll but is 9lb worse off for a 2 length beating of CUSOON last time. With a stronger pace pretty much assured, I can actually see this race being set up for the present day record holder for this CD, Cusoon, especially when you consider:

Cusoon, 2nd @ 15/8, as predicted was up against it with Mighty (may have to add to list) in the race but I was not impressed with the way he was ridden. Fair enough it was a slow run race but he was being so hard held up, I was almost on the phone to the RSPCA before he was finally unleashed to come from last to 2nd (& blocked in) within the final furlong – there’ll be another day for this one.

One minute I was buzzing more with the prospect of going to London tomorrow than I was about Turn On The Style last week, all of a sudden my grand passion (fav’s ¼, no value)’s are equally divided & I’ve just phoned my pub landlord to tell him & his wife, ‘I’ll be away tomorrow, so I’ll CUSOON!.’ And it’s not often I do that!

I suppose I should play safe, don't want to mess up my strike rate, so EW.

[Godspot]

All good things come to an end I suppose & yesterday I posted this thread’s first loser with Areyoutalkingtome, we're now down to a measely 90% accuracy. It wasn’t all bad though, we were only a head away from landing a tidy EW double & we must have found a couple of new inclusions to the list in, King Orchisios(Ire) (for beating all three of our horses in his race) & Blue Bajan(Ire) failing by a short head for doing the same in his; while the winner shaved nearly half a second off his own CD track record.

5.00 Kempton – PLAYERS PLEASE, 4/6f fc, 3yo top weights can be alright, top weight top speed figure, can be alright & Challis boosted his form recently, so will prove very hard to beat.

[Godspot]

Another winner posted yesterday, making for 10/11 now, though I say it myself, that’s not bad. I’m not altogether certain as to why this thread is doing so well but I think between August last year & now, there must have been a record number of track records broken on the AW for any other previous 6 month period, including another two within the last week or so(make that three with Magic Glade on Saturday as well). Something to do with that & the consistency of the going I presume. But just out of interest I sent off for that free booklet, recently advertised by Brimardon, one of their adverts reads; ‘The time to get involved is now. Most people wont go near the AW, big mistake. We have a 48% strike rate in certain h’caps on the AW.’ They actually want me to pay for something that I can better myself, h’mmm? They also say, ‘It would take you years to find a winning system on the AW.’ As I have said before, I was no great fan of AW racing but since unearthing wholly by accident, this thread, I have to admit to becoming a bit of a convert. I wouldn’t mind some feedback but feel generally ignored on this site, so I doubt there’ll be any of that. Lucky for me, I’m a constant learner, can be a little slow at times (a Virgo trait, so I believe) but I usually get there in the end.

[MattR]

. I wouldn’t mind some feedback but feel generally ignored on this site, so I doubt there’ll be any of that. .

I do read these Godspot and I'm sure others do to and this thread in particular is doing great. If I could make a suggestion it would be to make the picks a little clearer, I don't think I'm the only one who gets a little lost reading through your posts :) Maybe at the end of the message just do a little list of the days picks. Just something like Course/Time/Name just so as they stand out.

[wb]

I also read these threads GS, and enjoy the analysis. However, I would agree with Matt here. After the write up, you could make the selection a bit clearer by typing something like:

Bet:
5:00 Kemp - GS' Selection - Stake: £x.xx