Debatable Times & Distances...

[Godspot]

Can I just ask Mavrick, if he's browsing, (or anyone else for that matter who is inclined to use speed figures) what he makes of the Kempton meeting ran on Dec 27th? I ask mainly due to Top Speed (Dave Edwards') own article in this week's RP/W'Ender, calling into question race distances at Kempton (especially 2m). I mean, one minute I'm thinking, 'cor, Jack The Giant, did alright,' the next I'm reading this, (from the above article):

"What appeared to be a fast time can now be viewed in a starkly contrasting light. The BHB handicapper is on record as saying that race times have a role to play in their assessments, with more credence placed on relatively quick times. So they, like other interested parties, (punters, owners, trainers & jockeys) are being led up the garden path.
When chasers regularly clock faster times than hurdlers over a purported same trip on similar ground, there is something amiss.
For what it is worth I reckon that both chases & hurdles are currently being run over further than advertised, the chasers marginally, the hurdlers considerably. Over to you Mr Clifford, clerk of the course.'

Shame he couldn't have adjusted his figures to take that into account. So basically, the hurdle speed figures could have been higher?

[Mavrick]

Well my ratings are based on the racing post standard. The standard is for distances over that course only, so if Kempton consistantly has a 2 mile course which is either longer or shorter it doesn't matter as it won't effect my ratings. What happens at all courses though is that the actual distances can change from day to day as the Clerk of course will move the rails to save the ground or just because he feels like it and in all his wisdom he seldom lets anyone know about it. You couldn't change the standard on a day to day basis as it just wouldn't be accurate.
These are my ratings for the day, the chase ones I'm confident are accurate, but the hurdles ones maybe a little dubious as I don't normally rate hurdlers and I've just knocked them up now. Jack the Giant did run a really good time:
110- Jack The Giant- 85
230- Voy Por Ustedes- 84
305 Alderburn- 73
340 Princelet- 70
145 Refinement-37
1235 Poquelin-65
Looking at them does make me think that the hurdles could be higher, but I wouldn't know where to start adjusting them.
Like Keith said Top Speed is pants and is best ignored.

[Win2Win]

One of the more accurate speed ratings is in the RFO, but you still won't profit using them blindly.

You have to remember at Kempton, they have only a few meetings to go on to work out accurate times as the course has been reset since the AW was installed, so all the old times are useless.

[Mavrick]

Now I come to think of it, I don't think they have got the standard right yet for Kempton after the new track was installed. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that even them chase ratings should be higher as going on the horses previous ratings that ran that day (I know that maybe not an advised thing to do, but It has helped me no end in the past) they have all been in the order of 2-3pts higher, Except "Jack the Giant" who I think has improved that much. As for the hurdles, no idea.

[Godspot]

Thanks for that guys, I'm now developing my own ratings, I suppose it was only a matter of time.

There is a couple of good tests for those figures this afternoon.

Refinement, who I think everyone agrees ran the slowest race above but she was upped 4lb by the h'capper. I doubt whether United will be able to keep tabs on her.

Later, Orcadian who ran behind Princelet, runs against Pilca - if he gets between Pilca & Papini, it would probably suggest the hurdlers above were underrated but I doubt whether by enough to actually win here.

What's the record for the most columns on a spread sheet?

[Godspot]

Here's a good test of the figures, in the 1.05 @ Kempton, Royal Shakespeare, commanding the second highest topspeed of the day (that wouldn't look out of place in a Grade 2 race). It's just a shame the ground is on the 'st side & maybe compared to Trouble At Bay, he could be a little over the top, after already having had a few hard races this season.

Princelet's form has already been let down but this race, Kempton 1.40 doesn't look as competitive as last time.

The Racing Post published their new Standard Times for Kempton this week, anyone interested?

[Godspot]

So it's official then?

Chasers running over 2m at Kempton are actually running 33 yards short of 2m & hurdlers over 2m at Kempton are in fact running 53 yards further than advertised.
Does this affect the newly announced RP standard for the course?
How is one supposed to ply that into calculations of your own ratings?

[sparkyminer]

So it's official then?

Chasers running over 2m at Kempton are actually running 33 yards short of 2m & hurdlers over 2m at Kempton are in fact running 53 yards further than advertised.
Does this affect the newly announced RP standard for the course?
How is one supposed to ply that into calculations of your own ratings?

If you think of how a NH race is started, I don't think it makes a blind bit of difference.

[mathare]

So it's official then?

Chasers running over 2m at Kempton are actually running 33 yards short of 2m & hurdlers over 2m at Kempton are in fact running 53 yards further than advertised.

Is it? I must have missed that in my morning papers, what with all the looting down in Devon

Anyway, race distances are rarely accurate anyway are they? In flat races, any race that involves a corner is longer for some participants than others. Some cards will report a race as being over 2m 4f whereas the race may actually be over another 110y.

And as Sparky says, given the way they start NH races does it matter? I've seen races started with one horse facing the wrong way. That will have far more of an impact that a few yards here and there. After all, if the line is 53 yards further on than was advertised they still have to run to that line, every horse in the race has to do the same. A jockey won't pull a horse up after 2m and say "right, that's it, distance done." He'll ride it out to the line whether the line is bang on 2m or slightly either way. They go by distance to the finish when timing a run, not distance from the start. So as long as the 1f (or whatever) pole is near enough then who cares? And what difference will a few yards make compared to jockey reaction times? Yep, almost bugger all.

[bigcumba]

53 yards extra on 2 miles is slightly more than 1.5% over the distance.... surely you can factor that into your calculations when you do the ratings... timewise at that distance you must be looking at no more than 10 seconds on a 2 mile race?

[Mavrick]

Here's a good test of the figures, in the 1.05 @ Kempton, Royal Shakespeare, commanding the second highest topspeed of the day (that wouldn't look out of place in a Grade 2 race). It's just a shame the ground is on the 'st side & maybe compared to Trouble At Bay, he could be a little over the top, after already having had a few hard races this season.

Princelet's form has already been let down but this race, Kempton 1.40 doesn't look as competitive as last time.

The Racing Post published their new Standard Times for Kempton this week, anyone interested?

I can't believe I missed this post. I backed Royal Shakespeare.

So it's official then?

Chasers running over 2m at Kempton are actually running 33 yards short of 2m & hurdlers over 2m at Kempton are in fact running 53 yards further than advertised.
Does this affect the newly announced RP standard for the course?
How is one supposed to ply that into calculations of your own rating

This won't make a blind bit of difference if you compile your own speed ratings, as you are using the (+)(-) standard, not the total race time. Well I assume you are. If you're not, then you must be generating your own sets of standards for every course which is more work then i cared to think about, and pretty much pointless as the racing post have already done it for us.

I will back track all my Kempton times and let you know if I can see a difference.

If you think of how a NH race is started, I don't think it makes a blind bit of difference.

If you mean that race times and speed ratings can't be accurate and are not worth it, then I hope that's not true

Anyway, race distances are rarely accurate anyway are they? In flat races, any race that involves a corner is longer for some participants than others. Some cards will report a race as being over 2m 4f whereas the race may actually be over another 110y.

The first bit is so true and is a right pain in the for people who try and compile ratings but, as long as the people who work out the (+) (-) standard at the end of the race know the correct distance then it doesn't really matter in National Hunt what is says on the top a card. It's rare for the racing post to have the wrong distance on their cards. Not so rare for them to make much more Catastrophic errors like having the wrong racecard number next to a horse (not so much a big deal for us, but when I worked in a bookies and the ol' dears who just did numbers thought that they had a 50/1 winner and found out they didn't then things can get ugly, walking sticks everywhere :D )

You will be surprised how accurate the times can actually be. If the majority of races are slightly slow into stride then it will make little difference as this will be reflected in the standard. There was a farce of a race the other day when no one wanted to take up the running and they hovered around the start for about 20 seconds. These are quite rare and you can always get a stop watch and take off that time when you try and compile a rating.

Remember, when you use speed ratings for the jumps you are looking for the conditions that best favour a horse. You are not just looking for the fastest horse in the race, but the fastest over todays conditions. They are only a guide, but a very powerful guide sometimes.

Ok, enough of the waffling. It's the lack of racing I tell you!!:)

[sparkyminer]

If you mean that race times and speed ratings can't be accurate and are not worth it, then I hope that's not true

I meant that they don't all start in a line at exactly the same time as in a flat race.

[Mavrick]

Just to clear something up. When I said "I hope that's not true" I meant as I would of wasted huge amounts of my time, not that I hope that isn't what you actually think.

[Win2Win]

But how can you ever know the correct distance of a race? They move the rails around so much these days. Some can add on an extra 100yds, probably more when they squeeze the rails in to protect the inside ground at Fontwell & Windsor.

That is why I only glance at the speed figure for reference. They are pretty worthless.

[Mavrick]

I agree, and disagree. Yes the distances change, and sometimes quite significantly but, on the whole I would say they are fairly stable/ish. Certainly enough to get a very good idea what conditions best suit an exposed runner.

When you look at the speed ratings of all the winners and beaten horses on a card, both what they have achieved today and what they have achieved previously on similar conditions, you can tell quite easily when something look a bits dubious, and you can quite accurately amend them to a realistic figure (I only really find myself doing this I would say 1 in 7ish times. It's so automatic and 2nd nature I couldn't really say for sure).

I used form, lines of form, handicap ratings etc for ages (well not that long as I'm only 24 and I didn't get into horses until I was 21) and I have always been profitable but, speed ratings have been a god send and I can't imagine not using them now. They have cut the time it takes me to look at a race by about 2/3rds. Like you though, I only use them as a guide and on top of normal form study, but I think they are priceless.
I'm ready to be put in my place:D

[Godspot]

You're all making so much sense, especially about the distances.

The last two comments have described speed figures as worthless & priceless. Didn't someone once say, it's not the information you get, it's how you use it,'

Personally, from what I've just learnt from the Labelthou(Fr) thread & recent winners United & Kalca Mome &, to bring this thread full circle, Royal Shakespeare(Fr) (won on Saturday after having just clocked a 146 Topspeed behind Jack The Giant(Ire) the time before) & hopefully again when JTG & Twist Magic run again, is that it would be pure foly to ignore a near or higher than a TS of 140.

It can all depend on how often the horse has ran or what race the said figure is being taken into that makes it of any or more worth.

Whatever the distance was Jack The Giant(Ire) ran a fair race in comparison with Voy Por Ustedes over the same trip. I don't know whether he's the top novice chaser on your figures Mav but TS & Mord's say so. The same stable let me down in the Arkle a few years ago with Caracciola(Ger) but I don't recall getting so excited about his figures.

Incidentally Mav your figures use a similar scale to that of Keith's rfo (which, may I say I think is excellent value, cheers Keith & I'm already recommending it to mates who like football betting) which recently highlighted the performance of a certain Blue Splash which TS missed, you should like him, he's a chaser. Because he has no TS he may not be overbet next time & may represent value. There's one way to exploit a useless figure:D

PS. Can I just say thanks to Mavrick as, although I've had a bit of a setback lately I'm well pleased with my figures. Anyway, back to that www.Channel4.com/science website....:)

[Mavrick]

I'm glad I have been of some use GS. Anytime.

Yes, Jack The Giant is at the top of my ratings as well, and we have two from that race battling it out tomorrow and it should be a cracker. Rasharrow will be a tough nut to crack if he doesn't plough through a fence or two, as Royal Shakespeare might not be too happy on the ground. I can't see how Another Promise can figure, unless the ground gets considerably worse.

Looking at my Kempton ratings I don't see any real problems with taking the figures as correct, as the standard will be based on the shortened trip anyway. I only gave Blue Splash a SR of 61, but he has bags of stamina and should be suited by real marathon distances. He won't get his ground at the festival I wouldn't of thought, but could one day be an Aintree prospect.

If you're compiling figures and need a hand, just give us a shout.:)

[Win2Win]

Speed figures are taken from the USA, there tracks are 100% consistent. Same start, same running rail, same dirt. Only changes with heavy rain.

Over here, completely different, It's like trying to measure the length of Vegy's under a microscope on a ship in hurricane Katrina :D

RFO is excellent.....who says small things don't matter......eh Vegy? :wink

[bigcumba]

It's like trying to measure the length of Vegy's under a microscope on a ship in hurricane Katrina :D

4.7mm according to Danbo.... :)

[mathare]

4.7mm according to Danbo.... :)

He had the enlargement op then did he, that's nice to know

[Godspot]

At least he never had breast implants for a bet!

[Win2Win]

At least he never had breast implants for a bet!

You haven't heard?

[Godspot]

You haven't heard?

How did I know that was coming? But back to today....

I can remember backing & tipping, Royal Shakespeare's sire, King's Theatre when he won the Coral Eclipse (10.5f). Why? Because he was well clear on speed figures & he was 12/1.
I can remember when Another Promise's sire, Presenting came 3rd in Lammtarra's (another horse I helped relieve a few quid from the old enemy, this time because of his International Classification figure after just having one run) 1995 Derby (12f).
The fact that there is even more stamina on Another Promise's dam's side suggest he will struggle to beat Royal Shakespeare over 2m. Unless the latter's batteries begin to run out (he's had 5 races in 6 weeks).
I reckon this afternoon is a safe dutch between RS & Rasharrow (if he could make just one or two less mistakes, he should be able to capitalise on his weight advantage).

[Mavrick]

Another Promisemust be a good horse to lay and then back in running now there is nor Royal Shakespeare 1.88

[Mavrick]

Well he did go to 5/4 in running, but, I think most would of bailed out before then.

[Godspot]

‘Another Promise must be a good horse to lay and then back in-running now there is nor Royal Shakespeare,’

I know it’s easier in hindsight but we could just stop short by saying, ‘Another Promise must be a good horse,’ he’s certainly versatile though. If I remember rightly, he gets a fair comment in Roll Along’s Horses2Follow thread. I do however feel though that this was a slightly below par Grade 2, especially since RS pulled out. As this was a non-h’cap it may have paid to resort to Official Ratings which was borne out by the result & as it was a relatively slow time I don’t think it will affect their ratings much.

I had a feeling before the race that Rasharrow’s figures would look better in a h’cap and as it happens he was also entered to run in tomorrow’s Timeform Novice H’cap @ Cheltenham where he is one point from the highest Topspeed rated. I doubt whether he’ll run but the TS horse, Flying Enterprise looks interesting. Also interesting is the entry of Dream Alliance, who was behind Blue Splash last time & who has qualified for an OR of 133 – looks a bit steep to me… How’s that I hear you wonder? Well let’s just go back to something you said earlier in this thread regards the Kempton figures…

“but I wouldn't know where to start adjusting them.”

It just so happens that I’ve been doing this sort of thing for over 10 years now, on & off, I’m a little out of practice but I’m slowly getting back on track (& many thanks to yours truly again). Before I come back to Blue Splash, there is a great little example in this week’s Mordin Weekly Report concerning an Irish chaser:

TOBAUR ISAUN (37) showed huge improvement on his second start for Paul Roche to run away with a handicap chase at Fairyhouse. I imagine part of the reason he improved was the step up to three miles. But, whatever the reason, the thing to bear in mind is that Tobaur Isaun won this race off an official mark of only 87. So even if the handicapper throws a huge penalty at him he'll still be under-rated by a couple of stone according to my speed ratings. That means he has a great chance of winning a whole string of races. In fact I reckon he can be placed to win a big handicap chase sometime in the next few months.

If you recall he gave us the equation talking about Presenting Express, ‘his figure of 39 represents an estimated OR of 150.’ I went straight for a calculator when I read that & divided 150 by 39. I rounded it up to 3.9 to get a slightly higher estimate but if you multiply that by 37 you get 144 & should begin to see where he’s coming from when talking about Tobaur Isaun.

Now, his ratings scale is roughly ½ yours & yours twice his, so we could divide your figures by 2 & then multiply by 3.9, a simpler way to get the same result would be to just multiply your figures by 1.95 to acquire an estimated OR. Before you start doubting the accuracy of this, let’s look at your figure given to Voy Por Ustedes @ Kempton again, 84 wasn’t it? *1.95 = 164. When you think he had an OR of 162 pre-race & was upped 5lb to 167 after, we’re not too far wide of the mark. That is why Jack The Giant is so interesting, OR 147, TS 148 & RPR 148, they’re all stumped, as far as I see things he should be rated a fair bit higher than that but back to Blue Splash:

Myesti – based on TS = 118
Myesti – based on rfo = 122
Myesti – based on your 61 = 119, they’re all pretty close & I’ll assume that RPR gave him a 135 because he had two >130 OR’s some 60 lengths behind. No that’s wrong, they ran too poorly to take into account, it must be (as is Dream Alliance’s OR) based on the 2nd’s (DA’s) previous run, which he ran slightly below according to RPR & way below according to TS. This leads me to think that RPR has over-reacted a little concerning Blue Splash. Dream Alliance may well be better than an OR of 133 in the long-term but right now he is going to have to clock a bigger TS to prove it.

As for my own figures, it didn’t help or rather it did, when the second meeting I worked on to help set the scale happened to include Halcon Genelardais in the Welsh National. Did you know the last horse to carry over 11 stone to victory here was made favourite for the Gold Cup? & the figures he achieved make him another horse to be seriously interested in – wherever he runs. Coincidently I have just remembered that Mord’s refers to that very race at the back of Chapter 2 in Betting For A Living. The reason it was a bit of a spanner was because at present I’m using Mordin’s standard times & later realised that over this CD there is a massive difference between his & the RP’s standard. What I am trying to achieve, is a figure more like Myesti’s above that don’t require any adjustment after. Progress – it’s a slow train – but I’m getting there…..

[Mavrick]

Looks like you are doing some great work there GS.

I don't use Nicks standards as I feel that the racing post must have more data to go on,and second I don't want to have to start from the beginning again I will have a look soon and seen how they compare over a few sample meetings.

If you use your formula to translate my ratings to an OR then Halcon Genelardais would have a rating of 169!! He is certainly going to be something special.

I am going to try and upload my speed ratings and you and anyone else for that matter that wants to have look, play or laugh at them can. I'm having a bit of trouble doing it as the forum won't let me upload a Window Address Book file. If anyone has any ideas what I can do it would be greatly appreciated.

[Godspot]

Looks like you are doing some great work there GS.

I don't use Nicks standards as I feel that the racing post must have more data to go on,and second I don't want to have to start from the beginning again I will have a look soon and seen how they compare over a few sample meetings.

If you use your formula to translate my ratings to an OR then Halcon Genelardais would have a rating of 169!! He is certainly going to be something special.

I am going to try and upload my speed ratings and you and anyone else for that matter that wants to have look, play or laugh at them can. I'm having a bit of trouble doing it as the forum won't let me upload a Window Address Book file. If anyone has any ideas what I can do it would be greatly appreciated.

I dunno what I did there but it looks like I just turned your last lot into a proper quote but anyway:
Is there not a way you can copy & paste your figures into a word doc, then a table & then a spreadsheet?
I never realised before how much you could do with a SS. Once you have the standards logged in, all you have to do is log the time of the race, set the going allowance & I usually have my figures before the RP post there's. Of course, i'm still learning (@ 42) but is not that what life is about?
Personally, I won't care if Halcon G comes a close second tomorrrow, I still reckon he'll reverse placings with Our Vic in the Gold Cup.
It's a bit late right now, I'll get back to you tomorrow, when I'm sober as well.

[Mavrick]

That's a good idea using a spread sheet for the standards, and it would help a lot if you had a bet later on in the card as you could calculate what the going actually was after seeing the first couple of races without relying on what was declared. I normally bet long before the meetings start so I haven't really needed to do it.

With Hindsight, I would of recorded my speed ratings in another program. I can't think of any easy way to convert them to a text file without going through them one by one and copying them. I can convert them to a zip file but, it won't let me upload that either. If you have Windows Address Book on your computer which you should have as it just comes as standard with XP (just point to start/all programs/accessories and it should be there) then I will email it to you if you want. Send me a pm or email me at e-mail address removed for own safety with your email address. I personally think Our Vic might have to settle for third behind Halcon Genelardais and Exotic dancer

[vegyjones]

Can Godspot confirm that you need Maverick's e-mail address cheers!