Australian Open

[yerotsluap]

With most of the bookies offering each way odds at 1/3 price for the losing finalist I reckon there's still some EW value in Nadal (at 5/1) and, possibly, Roddick at 10/1 although he will have to beat Federer in the semi.

As for the women, I received a little whisper on Nicole Vaidisova about a year and a half ago when she was only fifteen, and got 100/1 ante-post for her to win Wimbledon 2006. Obviously that came to nothing, but she's still progressing and is in the last 8 here. I've had a small interest at 15/2 but see her really as one to definitely watch for the future.

Vaidisova is definitely one for the future, should she get past her compatriot into the semi final she has either the no.16 seed Shahar Peer from Israel or Serena Williams who is trying to struggle back to form. The other half of the draw is much tougher with Hingis, Clijsters and Sharapova. Definitely worth an EW shot to make the final

[yerotsluap]

2/2
97/118 Overall
82.2%
+20.71pts

[yerotsluap]

Federer to win semi final of a major is just 1.14 and this is after a match where the BBC described him as being off key (although he did win in straight sets)

[yerotsluap]

24/01/07
1.50 Nikolay Davydenko v Tommy Haas 2.60 Won 6-3 2-6 1-6 6-1 7-5
1.40 Rafael Nadal v Fernando Gonzalez 2.87 Lost 6-2 6-4 6-3

The Nadal/Gonzalez match should be a very close match. I've been very impressed with Gonzalez thus far especially the way he took Blake apart in the last round.

[John]

Someone is doing very well. :D Well done Paul!

[yerotsluap]

cheers John had a very first good day and done ok since then

[yerotsluap]

A good win for Tommy Haas coming from 2-1 down with blurred vision and then a break down and fighting off match point in the fifth

[yerotsluap]

Nadal really struggling against Gonzalez currently down 6-2 3-1

[yerotsluap]

Nadal now two sets down and really up against it. Gonzalez is maintaining the form he has shown all the way through this tournament

[yerotsluap]

Nadal almost gone, a break down in the third and Gonzalez up 4-3. Surely the only way Nadal can come back is if Gonzalez falls apart

[yerotsluap]

Gonzalez wins in straight sets. Destroyed Nadal absolutely awesome power and control. Nadal was given no chance to get into the match, probably the best performance of the tournament so far

[yerotsluap]

1/2
98/120 Overall
81.66%
+21.31pts

[yerotsluap]

25/01/07
1.14 Roger Federer v Andy Roddick 5.50 Won 6-4 6-0 6-2
26/01/07
1.40 Fernando Gonzalez v Tommy Haas 2.75 Won 6-1 6-3 6-1

Federer's odds are crazy for this point of a tournament, and Roddick is playing well. Really unsure on this match keep going back and forwards on it based on the fact that this could be a very close match and yet there is such disparity between the players in terms of the odds.

[MattR]

25/01/07
1.14 Roger Federer v Andy Roddick 5.50
26/01/07
1.40 Fernando Gonzalez v Tommy Haas 2.75

Federer's odds are crazy for this point of a tournament, and Roddick is playing well. Really unsure on this match keep going back and forwards on it based on the fact that this could be a very close match and yet there is such disparity between the players in terms of the odds.

It does seem very low but I think it's mostly down to this.......

ATPtennis.com - Players - Head-to-Head

[yerotsluap]

I didn't realise the record was that one sided although thinking about it its no surprise. The only thing that concerns me is that its a semi final Federer has been expected by everyone to win the tournament at a canter and Roddick has run into some great form especially the way he took apart Mardy Fish.

On the otherhand Federer is not the kind of guy to rest on his laurels and think its going to be a procession. He's like Tiger Woods in that he wants to crush everyone standing between him and victory

[MattR]

Yeah, Roddick seems to have come on a bit lately since Jimmy Connors started working with him. He seems to have varied his game a little bit more now rather than just , to use his very own words "beating the crap out of the ball".

Federer always seems to find some way to win and Nadal apart, very rarely loses to anyone. Like you say though, not so sure the gap is as great as 1.14 would suggest.

[glynners]

Anybody watching this game???? Federer is an unbelievable player, absolutely smashed Roddick out of sight......and Roddicks been playing some great tennis in this tournament

[MattR]

Yeah seems the 1.14 was actually value!

[yerotsluap]

It does seem that way Matt, as Glynners said Roddick had been playing well in the tournament so that was why I was a bit iffy on the 1.14 but Federer is just untouchable. Cant see odds for the final being better than 1.10

[MattR]

It does seem that way Matt, as Glynners said Roddick had been playing well in the tournament so that was why I was a bit iffy on the 1.14 but Federer is just untouchable. Cant see odds for the final being better than 1.10

Yes you really can't see anyone else winning. Federer is 9-0 against Gonzalez and 7-2 v Haas, although Haas is getting somewhere back to near his best, prior to his injury he was at one time no 2 in the world. Interestingly Federer beat him in last years Australian open in 5 sets.

[yerotsluap]

yeah doesn't seem much hope for those two although Gonzalez is playing the best tennis of his career so far

[yerotsluap]

25/01/07
1.14 Roger Federer v Andy Roddick 5.50 Won 6-4 6-0 6-2
26/01/07
1.40 Fernando Gonzalez v Tommy Haas 2.75 Won 6-1 6-3 6-1

Federer's odds are crazy for this point of a tournament, and Roddick is playing well. Really unsure on this match keep going back and forwards on it based on the fact that this could be a very close match and yet there is such disparity between the players in terms of the odds.

2/2
100/122 Overall
81.97%
+21.85pts

[yerotsluap]

28/01/07
1.10 Roger Federer v Fernando Gonzalez 6.50 Won 7-6 6-4 6-4

[yerotsluap]

End of tournament stats

101/123
82.11%
+21.95pts

After the success of this tournament seriously considering starting a thread for the Mens tour

[bigcumba]

Go for it Paul, that was a good overall profit, and there's definitely enough interest here. :)

[MattR]

Well done Paul, great thread. :)

[presto]

yup nice one paul,
tennis looks a cracking sport to bet on, given the ammount of oppourtunities.