Matt's Euro Football Lay Challenge

[MattR]

Right, going to have a go at this using the whole liability of 1000 (or whatever bank may be as we go along) divided up on each set of games to see if I can get there (or to nothing!) before the end of the season.

Laying team in BOLD, betfair price as of now.

11 games £90.90 liability on each

Friday games
Strasbourg v Creteil 11.00 £9.09 lay stake
Sporting Lisbon v Aves 32.00 £2.79 lay stake
Stuttgart v Hertha Berlin 6.20 £16.61 lay stake

Saturday
PSv v Groningen 16.50 £5.86 lay stake
Twente v Willem 14.00 £6.99 lay stake
Salzburg v Grazer 12.00 £8.26 lay stake
Genk v Roeselare 13.50 £7.27 lay stake
Lyon v Sochaux 10.50 £9.57 lay stake

Sunday
Roma v Reggina 11.50 £8.66 lay stake
Schalke v Leverkeusen 6.60 £16.23 lay stake
Panathinaikos v Iraklis 19.00 £5.50 lay stake

[MattR]

Friday games
Strasbourg v Creteil 11.00 £9.09 lay stake 1-0
Sporting Lisbon v Aves 32.00 £2.79 lay stake 0-0
Stuttgart v Hertha Berlin 6.20 £16.61 lay stake 0-0

First three safely in, Profit £28.49 - 5% comm £27.06

New Bank £1027.06

[Jonny2621]

good luck Matt :wink

[wb]

Good luck Matt. Football betting/laying is something I have never been able to crack. I simply don't know enough about it to be honest :(

Will keep and eye on this. Hope it goes well :)

[MattR]

Thanks Guys. I may adjust it to varying stakes next time rather than a fixed liability. Will see how it goes over weekend.

[MattR]

Saturday
PSv v Groningen 16.50 £5.86 lay stake 1-0
Twente v Willem 14.00 £6.99 lay stake 0- 0
Salzburg v Grazer 12.00 £8.26 lay stake 2-1
Genk v Roeselare 13.50 £7.27 lay stake 3-0
Lyon v Sochaux 10.50 £9.57 lay stake 3-3

All safely in, if a little hairy (Lyon 1-3 down after 88 mins )


Profit on day: £37.95 - 5% comm : £36.05

To date: Bank £1063.11 8/8 lays won

[MattR]

Sunday
Roma v Reggina 11.50 £8.66 lay stake 3-0
Schalke v Leverkeusen 6.60 £16.23 lay stake 0-1
Panathinaikos v Iraklis 19.00 £5.50 lay stake 3-0

There's always one that lets you down. Still, can't complain about a late goal from Leverkeusen when Lyon got two satruday to draw!

Profit £14.16 - 5% comm : £13.45
Losses -£90.90

Nett. -77.45


Results to date

Lays 10/11 90.9%

Pr/Lo -£14.34


Pleased with the success rate and next time will do a fixed stake rather than use whole mythical bank divided by number of games. A £10 fixed lay stake would have seen it about £44 up

[MattR]

Going to add just before kick off tonight


Barcelona v Ath Bilbao 14.50 £20 lay stake
Beira Mar v Porto 9.80 £15 lay stake


Not that keen on laying home teams no matter how good the away team is but as it's mythical so what the hell ! :D

[MattR]

Barcelona v Ath Bilbao 14.50 £20 lay stake 3-0
Beira Mar v Porto 9.80 £15 lay stake 0-5

2/2
Profit £35 - 5% comm: £33.25


To Date:

Lays 12/13 92.31%

Bank £ 1018.91

[MattR]

Mondays Lays:

Dinamo Bucharest v Jiul Petrosani 28.00 £20.00 1-0 +20
Stoke v Barnsely 6.60 £15.00 0-1 -84
Dusiburg v Hansa Rostok 4.40 £10.00 1-2 -34
Modena v Juventus 15.00 £10.00 0-1 +10
Benfica v Pacos Ferreira 15.00 £10.00 3-1 +10


Profit: £40 - 5% comm: £38
Loss: -£118

Day: -£80


New Bank: £938.91

[MattR]

Weds Lays

Ascoli v Parma 2.76 £10
Empoli v Messina 7.40 £5
Lazio v Catania 10.50 £5
Club Brugge v Kortijk 16.00 £20
Gent v Mechelen 10.50 £10
Inter v Udinese 13.50 £20
Sochaux v PSG 3.80 £30
Sporting Lisbon v Acadamia 12.50 £10
Motherwell v St Johnstone 5.30 £15

All bar the Italian games are cup matches and if it wasn't mythical I would probably not go near them in the European leagues because they are often treated very lightly so have no idea what sort of teams they will put out.

[MattR]

Weds Lays results to date......

Ascoli v Parma 2.76 £10 0-0 +10.00
Empoli v Messina 7.40 £5 3-1 +5.00
Lazio v Catania 10.50 £5 3-1 +5.00
Club Brugge v Kortijk 16.00 £20 2-1 +20.00
Gent v Mechelen 10.50 £10 2-1 +10.00
Inter v Udinese 13.50 £20 1-1 +20.00
Sochaux v PSG 3.80 £30 2-1 +30.00
Sporting Lisbon v Acadamia 12.50 £10
Motherwell v St Johnstone 5.30 £15 1-2 -64.50

[MattR]

Weds Lays results

Ascoli v Parma 2.76 £10 0-0 +10.00
Empoli v Messina 7.40 £5 3-1 +5.00
Lazio v Catania 10.50 £5 3-1 +5.00
Club Brugge v Kortijk 16.00 £20 2-1 +20.00
Gent v Mechelen 10.50 £10 2-1 +10.00
Inter v Udinese 13.50 £20 1-1 +20.00
Sochaux v PSG 3.80 £30 2-1 +30.00
Sporting Lisbon v Acadamia 12.50 £10 2-1 +10.00
Motherwell v St Johnstone 5.30 £15 1-2 -64.50



Profit 110 - 5% comm : £104.50
Loss -64.50


Net gain on day: £40.00



Lays: 23/27 85.19%

New Bank £978.18

[MattR]

Friday lays

Amiens v Istres 7.60 £20
Montpellier v Metz 3.90 £10
De Graafschap v TOP Oss 13.00 £20
Den Bosch v Zwolle 4.30 £20
MVV v Roosendaal 4.00 £15
Stormvogels Telstar (what a great name :D ) v VVV Venlo 3.20 £20

[MattR]

Friday lays

Amiens v Istres 7.60 £20 2-1 £20
Montpellier v Metz 3.90 £10 1-1 £10
De Graafschap v TOP Oss 13.00 £20 2-0 £20
Den Bosch v Zwolle 4.30 £20 2-2 £20
MVV v Roosendaal 4.00 £15 2-1 -£45
Stormvogels Telstar v VVV Venlo 3.20 £20 3-1 -£44

90th minute goal by MVV turned a potential decent profit into a loss.

Profit: £70 - 5% comm : £66.50
Loss: -£89

Day: -£23.50

New Bank: £954.68

[MattR]

Saturday


Ok going to make this interesting now! Been playing around with correct score lays using the poisson function that Mathare advised on the probablility and taking those that come out as value odds to lay (ie lower than the probablility suggests) and the least likely to happen. So far just 1 out of 72 score lays has occured in the test. However there were some with odds of 360/1 etc that are realistically not ones you'd go around laying. So todays lays are on a few games for saturday and less than 100/1. All lays are for £2. Some look quite possible to me but we'll see!

Rough liab next to game

Dutch League
Vitesse v Excelsior
3-3 70.00

Groningen v Breda
2-0 14.50
3-0 28.00
3-1 21.00
3-2 32.00
3-3 80.00

Willem v Sparta
1-3 30.00
3-3 60.00

Premier

Arsenal v Reading
0-0 17.00

Fulham v Aston Villa
0-2 22.00
0-3 60.00
1-3 38.00
2-2 17.00
2-3 55.00
3-2 38.00
3-3 85.00

Newcastle v Middlesboro
3-3 70.00

Portsmouth v Chelsea
0-3 18.00
1-3 17.50
2-3 34.00

Sheff Utd v Everton
2-3 55.00
3-1 36.00
3-2 50.00

Watford v Charlton
1-3 30.00
3-3 100.00



25 £2 lays in all so one win in the wrong place could wipe the whole lot out.

Need a high strike rate which so far in the limited test has been the case, now it's posted I'll probably blow the bank in one afternoon

[MattR]

Dutch League
Vitesse v Excelsior 2-3
3-3 70.00 WON 2

Groningen v Breda 3-1
2-0 14.50 WON 2
3-0 28.00 WON 2
3-1 21.00 LOST -40
3-2 32.00 WON 2
3-3 80.00 WON 2

Willem v Sparta 0-0
1-3 30.00 WON 2
3-3 60.00 WON 2

Premier

Arsenal v Reading 2-1
0-0 17.00 2

Fulham v Aston Villa 1-1
0-2 22.00 WON 2
0-3 60.00 WON 2
1-3 38.00 WON 2
2-2 17.00 WON 2
2-3 55.00 WON 2
3-2 38.00 WON 2
3-3 85.00 WON 2

Newcastle v Middlesboro 0-0
3-3 70.00 WON 2

Portsmouth v Chelsea 0-2
0-3 18.00 WON 2
1-3 17.50 WON 2
2-3 34.00 WON 2

Sheff Utd v Everton 1-1
2-3 55.00 WON 2
3-1 36.00 WON 2
3-2 50.00 WON 2

Watford v Charlton 2-2
1-3 30.00 WON 2
3-3 100.00 WON 2

Profit £40 with comm 5% £38 + £8 (groningen game no comm as loss on market) £48
Loss: -£40

Net Profit £8

Lays: 24/25


New Bank: £962.68