Gingertipsters Tips

[gingertipster]

You are right Merlin but 6/1 was not available when I put the bet up. Not that it mattered. Ran awful.

At least I had a run for my money with the 99/1 shot in 3rd.

[gingertipster]

Thought better get on here quickly with my first bet as I think the price will not last long.

3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
£42 @ 6/1 Mi Emma 2nd Seems the only one of the principals that usually races at or near the pace. Even Beo may not be as handy as usual as she idled badly on her last 2 starts. Warrents a saver though. Scarlet runner is the only front runner I could find and it is in her best interests to make a slow gallop as possible. She appeared not to stay a truely run mile in our Guineas. Therefore with Ascots new round course being so difficult to come from the rear in anything but a strongly run race, it's asking a lot of Darjina and Rahiyah.
£15 @ 3.1/1 Finscael Beo
£2 @ 109/1 Scarlet Runner Did think about trading Scarlet back in running, as a filly who travels well and may not get home she could trade at around 9/1 three out especially if given an easy lead.
£2 @ 3/1 Finscael Beo
£4 @ 18/1 (place) Scarlet Runner
Combined Price (excluding place) 6/4
£65 loss

3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
£60 @ 4.7/1 Salford Mill Salford was only beaten just over a length by Lucarno yet is double the price, Yellow is 5 times the price for 3 lengths though he does not have the scope for further improvement of the other two. D.Elsworth is in just as good a form as J. Gosden. My main concern for Salford Mill is that his jockey will leave him with too much to do (usually held up). There are three runners who like to be up there (including the fav) so it should be truly run. Harlands chance would be better with rain and could improve significantly upped in trip.
This was a foolish bet, should have given more importance to the weather forecast (predicted rainfall) Salford was Known not to like soft conditions. Also two of the front runners were going up in trip so unlikely to want a truly run race.
£4 @ 16.5/1 Yellowstone 3rd
£5 @ 13/1 Harland
Combined Price 9/4
£69 loss

4:55 ROYAL ASCOT
£24 @ 13.5/1 Veracity 2nd
£10 @ 7/1 Mahler 1st Return £96
£2 @ 7/1 Mahler
£6 @ 14.5/1 Brisk Breeze
£45 @ 5.4/1 Serengeti 4th
£2 @ 219/1 Sunley Peace 5th
Combined Price 11/8
Combined Stake £89
£7 Profit
I saw Serengeti win a 10 furlong class 3 handicap at Goodwood. Pick of the paddock but after a furlong he looked in trouble, pushed along from the start. He did not look a likely winner 3 out either yet won easily by 7 lengths. Should improve for the significant step up in trip. Bred to stay 12 furlongs but his temperament (lazy but genuine) should allow him to stay 2 miles. Hope he is able to be ridden prominently. Veracity is bred for this, by one staying influence out of a mare who was by another. Can show bags of improvement at todays trip though needs to. The other three are just too big a price to leave out. Have included Sunley Peace, he needs to improve 20 odd pounds to win but is bred similarly to Veracity, going half a mile further and his trainer is in fantastic form. Don't get me wrong I only make him a 1.5% chance myself 66/1.

Days Stakes £223.00 Days Return £96.00 Days Loss £127.00
Total Stakes £5640.26 Total Return £6788.63 Total Profit £1148.37 (20.4%)
Balance £2148.37

[gingertipster]

2:30 ROYAL ASCOT
£41 @ 5.2/1 Double Attack
£10 @ 7.4/1 Maze 1st Return £84
£19 @ 3/1 Feared In Flight 3rd
£4 @ 18/1 Ramoni Chase
£2 @ 39/1 Meydan Dubai
Combined Price 4/6
Combined Stake £76
£8 Profit

3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
£18 @ 10.5/1 Admirals Cruise
£13 @ 16/1 Blue Bajan
£12 @ 20/1 (B365) Mighty 3rd (20/1 was available at 21:00 friday, not saturday morning, (pricewise) though did take 21/1 on exchanges at around 22:00).
Combined Price 4/1
£43 loss

3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
£24 @ 2.45/1 Miss Andretti
I see Corals are Offering 12/1 Al Qasi and 20/1 Soldiers Tale so will say those prices or the best early price if bigger.
£23 @ 12/1 (corals) Al Qasi
£14 @ 20/1 (Corals) Soldiers Tale 1st Return £294
£20 @ 13.5/1 Magnus
Combined Price 21/20
Combined Stake £81
£213 Profit

Days Stakes £200.00 Days Return £378.00 Days Profit £178.00
Total Stakes £5840.26 Total Returns £7166.63 Total Profit £1326.37 (22.7%)
Balance £2326.37
% Profit On Stakes 22.7%, Strike Rate 38.82%, In First Three 88.24%
Avg Price Taken between 7/1 and 15/2, Avg Per Race between 85/40 and 9/4
Avg Priced Winner 9/2

[gingertipster]

2:30 Ascot
Was going to put Maze up as the main bet but am concerned about a horse by Dr Fong acting on Soft. Chose Double Attack instead, by a staying influence Peintre Celebre out of a middle distance filly she should be suited by a test of stamina and may well lead (usually an advantage on soft, particularly when rain is falling at or near the off time). Feared In Flight is a worthy fav (by a horse with the best conformation I've seen, Hawk Wing) won his maiden in a fast time and should build on that. Ramona Chase could improve dramatically as he is bred for stamina yet finished 2nd at 5f on debut. Saw Meydan Dubai run at Goodwood. From a yard that rarely has a 2yo win first time out. Was clear pick of the paddock and ran a promising race after being well backed. Could come on a great deal for the run. Bred to stay this trip, to me physically he did look more a sprinting type though. The rain did not arrive until after the race, Maze won.

3:45 Ascot
If Miss Andretti is in the same form then end of story, she is proven on ground and trip. It's just a matter of how much tuesday took out of her. That also applies to Magnus who finished behind the filly but is still improving. Takeover Targt ran below form last year when running for the second time in a week so is opposed. As is Amadeus Wolf on stable form and Asset on the soft ground. Al Qasi is proven on the going, ran OK on his reappearance and had a progressive profile last season. Soldiers tale looked open to improvement a couple of seasons ago but minor injuries have got in the way. Went well on his reappearance before a poor run last time. However, that was on a firm surface and he is far better on soft. 20/1 looks massive.

3:05 Ascot
Scorpions group one penalty makes him vulnerable and is not as far infront of the others as the betting suggests. He can fret away his chance so the hurly burly of Royal Ascot is not ideal. Maraahel is a tricky ride and runs well on good-soft but not softer. Also I am not sure if he stays a truly run 12f on soft. Those 2 have the best chance of winning but not value at current prices. Admirals Cruise is proven on soft, stays well and on his best form is not far behind the principals. The problem is he aint that consistant, sometimes finds little and is from an out of form stable. His price though allows me to overlook this. Blue Bajan was only just beaten by Maraahel last time, that flatters him but is still improving. If he stays the trip could outspeed them. Mighty is just a favourite of mine, genuine and consistant but unproven on the ground. Should not be good enough if the best horses run to form but worth risking at the price. Hopefully he might get an easy lead.

[Mattw07]

Nice profit for the 5 days Ginge, especially the 1st 2 days, Well Done..

[gingertipster]

Thanks Matt,

Got a 50/1 ante-post tip for you.

2008 2000 GUINEAS
£10 @ 50/1 River Proud (Tote) I've had £20 on but thought it would not fit in to the staking plan. Just sit and watch the price tumble, then lay it back. I saw it at Newbury, the best looking two year old i've seen for some time. So much so I had a very rare bet on an unraced two year old at 9/1. It pulverised them beating a decent field by an easy 5 lengths. I predict it will half in price within a couple of weeks and be much less than that after it runs again. It is related to duel Breeders Cup mile winner Da Hoss and seems to have a very good temperament.

[gingertipster]

Next bets likely for Newbury although there is a possible ante-post bet for the July Cup.

[gingertipster]

Darley July Cup:
£43 @ 13/2 (W.Hills) Sakhee's Secret
As I said before this horse ran at Salisbury I think it is capable of taking on the best. And he beat a very good field with a terrific burst of speed there, going clear in no time at all. If this performance was on a grade one track, on mainstream TV he would be a lot shorter. Currently people want to back him at just over 11/2 on betfair, yet 13/2 is available at time of writing with Hills.

[vegyjones]

Thanks Matt,

Got a 50/1 ante-post tip for you..

Best price appears to be 25's!

Racing Post says you can get 50's at Stan James, but he isn't in their ante-post betting for the 2000 guineas!

[gingertipster]

The 50/1 went with Stan James a few days ago but I rung Tote yesturday and they gave me 50/1 even though they were not officially betting on it yet. You have to ask them to give you a price Vegy.

[gingertipster]

Having got in an arguement on what is and what is not a pro bet in another section, it has slowed me down in putting my bets up. Two bets I would have advised were Geestring and Lush. 7:05 and 7:30 Newbury but the prices I have taken are not available now. So can not reccommend a bet.

[Win2Win]

50/1 Now that is BAD VALUE, as statistically out of the 100's entered only around 20 make it, lots of unknown form, risk of injury, illness, doesn't progress over the winter, etc, it's price should be more than 50/1

[gingertipster]

Day 23 June 25th
Geestring has once again gone out to a backable price so...

7:05 NEWBURY
£67 @ 3.1/1 Geestring 2nd placed 1st Both horses were allowed to go off at big prices 5/1 and 11/2.
£17 @ 4.4/1 Sakhacity 3rd

7:35 NEWBURY
£90 @ 1.4/1 Lush With a few non-runners Lush now looks an odds on chance to me. But as it is dangerous to back short priced horses on very soft ground I have reduced the stake.

Will do profit /loss etc when I know reduction factors

[gingertipster]

Day 24 June 26th

2:10 SALISBURY
£109 @ 1.7/1 Drastic Measure
£15 @ 7.8/1 Katrina Bee
Combined Price 21/20
£124 Loss

2:40 SALISBURY
£10 @ 20/1 Rustic Flame 1st Return £210
£200 Profit

3:10 SALISBURY
£27 @ 9.5/1 Hi Calypso 1st Return £283.50
£27 @ 14/1 Algarade
Combined Price 11/2
Combined Stake £54
£229.50 Profit

4:10 SALISBURY
£60 @ 4.1/1 Apex 3rd
£24 @ 6.6/1 Apply Dapply
£15 @ 5.6/1 Pentecost
Combined Price 21/20
£99 loss

Days Stakes £287.00 Days REturn £493.50 Days Profit £206.50