System banker software

[Street cry]

yep 5 on the bounce cant fault that

[Win2Win]

yep 5 on the bounce cant fault that

Could have all been 100/1

[tophatter]

missed all of them today. Not a problem for me with the way it works - as its a drip drip thing missing winners aint so bad although having said that I wish I had been able to do them obviously!

[alfazzr1100]

I thought I had Jinxed it by joining in today for real (not papertrading) but at least the third one came up good (2.64 at lunchtime) I see it got to 3.25 SP - damn.

Still a few pence down on the day but there's always tomorrow.

That was with level £2 stakes as I haven;t got the software reloaded and I'm using Betfair anyway. How did it fair with the staking plan in action ?

Ian

[tophatter]

I could not do them again today but if you use the bookmker feature and stake precisely as it says then every time you get a winner the bank reaches a new high.

[mathare]

I missed the middle one so had a 40p loser followed by 36p on a 9/4 shot to finish ahead by 41p for the day. Doesn't sound much (and it isn't) but the £200 starting bank is over 19% up in under 6 weeks.

[alfazzr1100]

I really do not understand staking plans. If you have a regular pattern of winners and losers (say 25% strike rate) and exactly every fourth one winning ytou could obviously increase the stake after every loser knowing that when you get a winner it will be bigger than the losers. Better still if you knew that much you wouldn't bother betting on the losers.

However, as we don't know the pattern, and I assume it's fairly random, surely any other staking plan is only a guess. If you reduce the stake after a winner (expecting a loser) you lose out if you unexpectedly get a winner - and so on.

I suprised myself the other day looking at a system of my own that I am papertrading. After 40 days (120 bets) it was showing to be 11 pts up. so with level stakes of say £5 thats £55 gain - total stakes £600. I then tried a percentage stake assuming a starting bank of £100 and a 5% stake (again initially £5 per bet) and get just £4 profit overall - total stakes £715. However, with 2% stakes on a theoretical bank of £250 (again £5 initial bet) gives £37 profit overall - total stakes £682.

With the level stakes the more you bet the more you win, with the percentage stakes the more you bet the less you win. It obviously depends on the win pattern as I said earlier and when you lose with large stakes (in a percentage system) but I just can't see it yet.

I am sure The Staking Machine would come up with some clever optimum but would this not be curve fitting to past results with no guarantee that that pattern would continue ?

Ian

[Vic]

Ian - Keiths staking plan has been statistcally developed over many thousand examples - that's no guarantee, but is very carefully thought out.

Along the lines of your example, if you have something that gives you around a 37% strike rate and 9/10% poi then even at 2% of your bank you run a very strong risk of losing in excess of 80% of your bank - and more often than you'd think. The thing is to work out the risk reward ratio and work to that. I can tell you from personal experience that it's one thing looking at past history and seeing a 80% loss followed by a 200% gain, and another all together being on the wrong end of an 80% loss - very hard to retain the faith when you're in a black hole., no matter what history tells you.

[alfazzr1100]

Vic,
Thanks, I totally agree with your comment that a papertraded dip in bank in retrospect is totally different to riding through it for real - very scary!

Not such a good day for System Banker yesterday but I did warn you I'd have that effect.

I was just thinking about TopHatters comment about getting a new high for every winner. I could only see this working by increaseing stakes for every loser (or knowing the pattern in advance) and I think that is called "chasing your losers" which we all know its a bad idea. I know SB does not do this as it is a very secure system. I'll have to open a booky accoutn to use other than the exchange feature.

[Win2Win]

and I think that is called "chasing your losers" which we all know its a bad idea

It is for people who have no idea of research, losing runs, average odds, SR, etc, and that goes for ANY staking plan. Do the majority of systems with 5% levels, use 10%, and you will bust nearly every bank, and yet some sites tell you to use just that.

You have to remember that any staking is setup to 'recover losses' otherwise what do they all do adter a losing run? It is all a question of how the risk management is setup to protect the bank in the first place.

[Street cry]

all followers , be careful today on 2 occassions 2 races going off within 5 minutes of each other and with saturday racing being what it is delays might make things tricky so be sharp and make sure you get on SC

[Win2Win]

Luckily the 4.00 only take just over a minute to run.

[tophatter]

There is a world of difference between what I would call chasing losses and a staking plan.

The staking is very modest on this for the intial bet in comparision to any conventional % staking plan or level stakes on a 35% -40% strike rate system. If you can describe it as chasing then its a bit like chasing a tortoise rather than a leopard. Give this tortoise a 5 race headstart and you can catch it easy without breaking into too much of a sweat - try doing that with a leopard and you will need to jump in a sports car!

Everytime we catch the tortoise we earn a bit of a fee - not big bucks but its nice easy work. The bloke chasing the leopard has to work that much harder and cant give it hardly any headstart. He might earn one or two bigger fees short term but he is likely to eventully get the sack or have to leave his job through heart failure!

[tophatter]

15/09/07

First time I could do these for a few days. The first one won, but the following siz lost. Then I got a winner, followed by the last two winning so it was a good day. When you get successive winners it gives the bank a nice boost as the first stake in any run is not price relevant. So I had a full stake on a horse that won at 4.3/1 and 3/1 for me as the last two selections.

4 winners from 10

Bank up on the day by 2.90%

Strike rate is 39% from 163 bets with a profit of 20.45%

[alfazzr1100]

Thanks, TopHatter, with litterary similies like that your wasted on here. I like System Banker from the little I've seen (although it I'm down on it so far) alsthough up today after a shaky start. I would not be down so much although I missed that it increased the stake at one time (I was getting used to the £2 bets and it suggested £6 odd on Bellomi but I only place £2) I'll have to watch the screen more closely.

With some of the close races and other commitments I placed some of the bets ahead of their time so I played "what ifs" seeing what stake it would suggest if the the next one won or lost, for the race after next if you see what I mean. In the case I tried it was saying £2 whether the next one won or lost, so I placed it early. (Having to reset the history file each time).

W'ell see what tomorrow brings.
Ian

[alfazzr1100]

Sorry, our last posts "crossed" - yes I got the same sort of thing only I got 2.92, 5.3 and 4.2 on the last three and I bunged an extra quid on the last one for good measure.

[tophatter]

I would just keep it nice and easy and do the ones you are around to do and not bother with the others. It is a small increase in bank each time a winner occcurs its not like you are working on a small strike rate system with big priced winners and in any case the bigger prices have reduced stakes.

I started with a £500 bank and bank is now £602.00. My starting stake is still quite a bit under £2.00 and sometimes even step 4 can be below that if the price is high.

[Street cry]

i missed the last 2 today as i cant do tomorrows and didnt want to carry aloss good day though five days on these 3 % bank growth

[Mavrick]

I think this software should come with a couple of pairs of clean underwear included as I hardly slept last night thinking about what stakes I might have to play today:D

[Win2Win]

That's why;
a) You count the bank as lost already
b) When the bank doubles for the first time, take the profit out.

[alfazzr1100]

Is it my imagination or does this sytem get better later in the day. for the short time I have been watching/using it the strike rate after about 5pm is 50% or over.

Have you ever used timing of events as a filter ?

Ian

[tophatter]

Ian, dont even bother thinking about filters.

I have been system betting for over four years now and trust me me I have seen many posts looking for ideas to tinker with something when it is more likely to be a hinderance to them rather than a help.

With this particular system it is even more of a hinderance. Let me explain why.

Losers do not matter to you, its the number of winners you get that matters because the staking makes the losers irrelevant. Cut down on the amount of bets you make, and you cut down on the amount of winners. Even if you had 5 losers in a row in the day, if the last one won then you will have lost out on a bit of profit.

You could just bet on the ones after 5.00pm if you like but all you would be doing is lowering your turnover and therefore would take longer to amass the profit. There is nothing wrong with that as I miss many bets too, but it would not be helping you make your bank grow quicker, my advice is, keep it simple, do the bets when you can and only when you can and do what the software tells you to do. No bottling, no over confidence just plug away

[tophatter]

2 winners from 6 today. Bank down a little on the day but the important thing is another two winners in the hutch.

Bank down on the day by 0.14%

Strike rate is 39% from 169 bets with a profit of 20.28%

[Mavrick]

0.07 on a maiden flat race. I'm not one for bottling things, but I can't lay out 125 quid it. I would go insane if it lost. I know I'm breaking the rules, but I just can't do it.

[Win2Win]

Well if you are bottling it, you shouldn't be doing it, as a losing run of 10+ will put you in a similar situation, bottle out, bank gone.

[Mavrick]

I know you're right Keith. I can handle the large stakes after a losing run, but that just felt far too weird. I'll get it together:)

[mickmd]

due a good run of winners soon i think tomoz could be it last time thirsk was on all 3 won same tomoz would be nice and with a recent strike rate of 26% and overall of 39% the odds of a good run look good to me
heres hoping

[alfazzr1100]

Yep Mick, that sounds about right because since I started on Thursday I've had a strike rate of 24% and lost about 30% of the bank - I did warn Kieth to expect a dip in results.

BUT the good news for you lot is that I can't do it tomorrow as I'm in London in a couple of meetings so I reckon 100% sounds about right

Call me stupid - I do, but I only just realised that the software expects you to enter decimal odds minus the stake point so 3.3 on Betfair goes in as 2.3 on System Banker, lucky I run my own spreadsheet aswell or I would not have noticed despite the little reminder every time - which I didn't understand :splapme

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Mavrick]

I only just realised that the software expects you to enter decimal odds minus the stake point so 3.3 on Betfair goes in as 2.3 on System Banker

By the sound of it Ian, that's where your 30% has gone. After a losing run, it will make a huge difference if you enter a short priced horse in with the 1pt stake included.

For example. There was a 1/10 shot today which wanted me to stake £125.41 on it. If I had entered the price plus the stake which you have been doing, then it would have been more like a fiver!!

[alfazzr1100]

Yes, I agree Mavrick, I am going to make good use of the train journey by re-entering all the figures from the start, as they should have been.