System

[Lohnro]

Hi all

I have a small dilemma, I have a system that was going great guns. It is a high turnover system with 1 or 2 bets in almost every race of the day and is a market based system.

It showed these results:

1400 bets
12% POT
20% S/R
$5.61 ave div
23 Longest run of loses.

But now after 1560 bets, it has dropped to:

10% POT
19% S/R
$5.54 ave div
23 Longest run of loses.

So the both the ave div and s/r has dropped. So my question is, what is the mathematical chance this system is due to luck and the decline keeps happening?

Thanks

[Lohnro]

Wrong site to ask this question.

[Lohnro]

I got this result from another site:




The archie test is done as follows:

runners × (winners - expected_winners)2
————————————————————————
expected_winners × (runners - expected_winners)

So runners = 1400
winners = 281
Expected winners ? I need to know the odds of every horse to work out the chance. Add up all of the odds as follows:

If the horse is $5.00 the chance is 1/5 = 0.20 (20% chance)

If I assume that the avg divi of winners is the same across the board (which it prob ably wont be) the expected winners in 1/5.61 = 17.825 *1400 = 249 Winners.

Therefore Your equation becomes:

1400 × (281 -249)2
————————————————————————
249 × (1400 - 249)

= 1433600/286599

= Archie Score of approx 5

(Please check my figures)

Here is the lookup table :

Archie Archie Probability
0.3- 0.5839
0.5- 0.4795
1- 0.3173
1.5- 0.2207
2- 0.1573
2.5- 0.1138
3- 0.0833
3.5- 0.0614
4- 0.0455
4.5- 0.0339
5- 0.0253
5.5- 0.019
6- 0.0143
6.5- 0.0108
7- 0.0082
7.5- 0.0062
8- 0.0047
8.5- 0.0036
9- 0.0027
9.5- 0.0021
10- 0.0016
10.5- 0.0012
11- 0.0009
11.5- 0.0007
12- 0.0005

So we look for Archie score = 5 which represents a probability of roughly 2.53%.

Assuming all mu assumptions are correct (which they wont be ) the results are 2.53% chance to luck.

[Mavrick]

I would have thought without knowing anything about the system the question is be pretty hard to answer.

If you are finding two selections in each race I am amazed that you are showing any profit unless you are using complicated price rules relating to your own tissue prices, and using a pretty advanced staking plan. but with a sample of 1560 bets then it does look quite promising.

I'm sure someone who knows what they are talking about will have a look in soon and try to help you.

[Mavrick]

This isn't a reincarnation of Gingertipster is it?

[Win2Win]

what is the mathematical chance this system is due to luck and the decline keeps happening?

I'm not aware of any maths can can predict the future. We haven't even proved a neutrino can jump through dimensions yet.

[presto]

to be honnest nothing looks wrong to me,

the SR has dropped 1% - which is totally acceptable, and the POI has dropped 2% aswell.

when dealing with SR - it never sticks at a constant level, it fluctuates a lot over and under the adverage. you could have a 20% SR system that produces 15% SR over the first 100 bets and 25% SR over the next 100 bets. It's not broke when it is only acheiving 15% SR and it's not 'over acheiving' when it is running at 25% SR.
same goes with the POI - it fluctuates.

even at it's simplest most reliable SR system - such as tossing a coin, you will never get 50/50 heads / tails over 100 tosses every time. the SR is essentially a deffinate 50% SR yet runs of 60/40, 40/60 are not uncommon.

[Lohnro]

Yeah you are correct presto. Things have corrected themselves after the Flemingtion Spring Carnival, and I am in a even better position than I was before. Roll on!

[Win2Win]

.....after the Flemingtion Spring Carnival,....

Don't remember that one at Cartmel!!!

[Lohnro]

Don't remember that one at Cartmel!!!

What's Cartmel?

[orientalexpress]

^ race track

[Mavrick]

What's Cartmel?

How dare he utter such blasphemy:D

[Lohnro]

:splapme hmmm sorry fellas...........just googled it. Looks,,,,,,,,,interesting.

[Win2Win]

Especially the caravans :D