mathare's gamblog 2008

**mathare** · 5th February 2008

Another thing I wanted to do tonight was to give you the next installment of the stats and briefly discuss how they have changed since the start of the year. We're 5 weeks in now so roughly 10% of the year has gone already so why not look back and see what is going right and what is going wrong.

BB stats for 04/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>660</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>102</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>82</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.58%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>80.39%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.79</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>4.80</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.26%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>122</td><td align=center>45</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>38</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>31.15%</td><td align=center>24.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>6.33</td><td align=center>-10.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.93%</td><td align=center>7.20%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>10</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>136</td><td align=center>142</td><td align=center>935</td><td align=center>790</td><td align=center>53</td><td align=center>177</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>41</td><td align=center>46</td><td align=center>336</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>21</td><td align=center>68</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>31.82%</td><td align=center>30.15%</td><td align=center>32.39%</td><td align=center>35.94%</td><td align=center>37.34%</td><td align=center>39.62%</td><td align=center>38.42%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.17</td><td align=center>-6.67</td><td align=center>9.32</td><td align=center>-1.09</td><td align=center>95.51</td><td align=center>9.45</td><td align=center>-0.59</td><td align=center>2.47</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.05%</td><td align=center>12.58%</td><td align=center>1.52%</td><td align=center>1.37%</td><td align=center>0.54%</td><td align=center>0.10%</td><td align=center>2.53%</td><td align=center>-0.63%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>310</td><td align=center>1323</td><td align=center>505</td><td align=center>88</td><td align=center>260</td><td align=center>38</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>253</td><td align=center>1141</td><td align=center>440</td><td align=center>73</td><td align=center>220</td><td align=center>33</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.61%</td><td align=center>86.24%</td><td align=center>87.13%</td><td align=center>82.95%</td><td align=center>84.62%</td><td align=center>86.84%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.44</td><td align=center>5.46</td><td align=center>11.89</td><td align=center>-0.74</td><td align=center>0.40</td><td align=center>0.11</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.68%</td><td align=center>13.00%</td><td align=center>10.50%</td><td align=center>12.54%</td><td align=center>5.83%</td><td align=center>1.46%</td></tr></table>

I'm not going to go through everything in detail but I wanted to pick out a number of key figures.

My A+ SR has hardly changed (down from 37.64%) this year but I have lost 4.18BB already. The overlay is about the same too but not terribly impressive due to a long period backing to SP (prior to 2007).

I have yet to hit a winner on the AP McCoy system but I have seen my overlay increase by 33% (from under 21%) overall. So I am getting good prices but they just aren't coming in. And obviously he is injured at the minute so...

There haven't been any selections this year yet in the Nine or Less, Stoute 80, Lambourn Yuck, Johnston Fav Tracks or Michael Stoute systems so those stats are obviously unchanged.

The LTO3 system SR is very slightly down since the start of the year but nothing significant given the number of bets in this system to date (122). I have made a profit of just under 1BB on this system although due to stake variations with the bank size I have made a slight loss overall this year in cash terms. But this system is continuing nicely enough for me and the overlay is settling out now.

I am not going to discuss the System Banker stats. Those shown here are for the second attempt and do not include todays disaster. Those stats will not appear in future stats updates as I am discontinuing the system, as discussed above.

Most of the thrid table doesn't warrant discussion due to the immaturity of the banks, which were started at the beginning of this year. Double Top is going well though, eh?

Finally we come to the lays. Not too much to say here other than the fact I am reining in my overlays a little as things progress, which can only be a good thing. Not really sure why my CD lays overlay is as small as it is though. It's calculated over 260 bets and is still under 6%. I don't do anything different to any other lay system yet those with a significant number of bets all seem to have double that overlay. Oh well.

**mathare** · 5th February 2008

The (an) other thing I wanted to say this evening was that I am going to try and get over my System Banker disappointment by dedicating more of my time and effort to Auto-Sys development, and perhaps other projects after that. But any other projects will be after Auto-Sys is complete and available for 3rd-party systems.

I have been a bit slack on the Auto-Sys front recently. I'm sure when it is released very few, if any, of you will appreciate and understand the ball-ache I have gone through getting some of it to work as desired but I want it to be perfect (or at least as perfect as I can make it) before I let anyone else loose on it. I also have a very fixed view on how it should work and I need to spend time rewriting a lot of the code I had already written to get it to work as I wish. I know it will be good when it is ready, I just don't know yet when it will be ready. I have overcome a good number of obstacles in the past couple of weeks but it's still baby steps at this stage really.

One of my main problems has been time, which willpower and willing very much up there. I spend my working days picking holes in someone else's software and pointing out ways in whch it doesn't work and why. So to come home and face programming some other software which is still quite raw and buggy and experience the difficulties in realising my vision is not always my idea of fun. So I kinda have to force myself to do it now and then. Don't get me wrong, it's not a chore for me, I do enjoy doing it but I am often reaching the stage where I will crack one problem and I will give up for the evening as I'd rather end that evening's development on a high rather than find another problem that will churn around in my brain overnight and wake me up in the middle of the night when my brain finds a solution. Think of it as stop at a winner if you need a gambling analogy.

But from now on I have resolved to spend more time on Auto-Sys development in the evenings and at weekends. After all, I need to do something to pay the bills now that I have bust a couple of betting banks. :)

**davidsteel** · 5th February 2008

Interesting post Mat, have you stopped doing the banker system or are you starting with a new bank..i stopped doing them mainly becuase i can't do it everyday and that made me feel uneasy about missing periods when it was winning..

**mathare** · 5th February 2008

Originally Posted by davidsteel

Interesting post Mat, have you stopped doing the banker system or are you starting with a new bank..i stopped doing them mainly becuase i can't do it everyday and that made me feel uneasy about missing periods when it was winning..

I have stopped, for good, permanently. No new banks, nothing. I have broken two banks on it in under two weeks now so I have decided it's really now for me. It did very well towards the end of last year but the shaky start to this year for the short-priced runners has really hit hard so I am done with it now.

**scaaty** · 6th February 2008

Originally Posted by mathare

And that takes us to this afternoon where we lumped £12.73 on a horse that went off at 11/10, and lost. Another odds-on shot now, this one at 8/13 with £40.27 riding on it. Nope, that one didn't win either. Never mind as we have £65.06 on a 13/8 chance now so surely that one will win. No. Next up was another short-priced runner that wanted over £200 on it and as the bank was down to a little over £70 at that point I gave up. It lost, incidentally.

I had to go out this afternoon so I didn't do the system banker today, but didn't the third selecton, Hopkins, win ? Or did you miss that one ? Seems like you've been very very unlucky with this - just goes to show how it can be different for everybody. I missed a few winners during the good run but recently I've only missed losers so I haven't had too much stress. Also what I posted earlier about making sure I never had a losing run longer than the system does seem to work quite well, so far anyway. After reading about your first bank bust I did take Keith's advice and withdrew my £250 starting bank,and I've started again now using just the profit (£210) plus the ciggie money I'd added, so even if it all goes pear shaped I can't lose.

Apart from the System Banker, I'm up £336 in total since the beginning of January on the systems I'm doing - that's RFP,JFP,NH Monthly,Flat Monthly, Double Top, LTO3 and First Timer - and I'm very happy with that. Not sure yet what I'm going to do with the £250 I've taken out of the System Banker, another of the flat systems I think, either the Johnston Tracks or the Michael Stoute ..... maybe the Johnston one, I like the buzz of a high priced winner!

Great blog, always a good read !

**mathare** · 6th February 2008

Originally Posted by scaaty

Great blog, always a good read !

Thanks Scaaty, appreciate it

I had to go out this afternoon so I didn't do the system banker today, but didn't the third selecton, Hopkins, win ? Or did you miss that one ?

Yes, and yes. It won (at 2/5) and I missed it. But I would have had to have a huge chunk on it, perhaps bigger than my bank at that point (I haven't calculated/checked), because of the price. And with the rate at which these short-priced nags have been getting turned over I would have been quite scared about doing it.

**scaaty** · 6th February 2008

Originally Posted by mathare

And with the rate at which these short-priced nags have been getting turned over I would have been quite scared about doing it.

Yes I can understand that - biggest stake I've had so far has been around a quarter of my bank and I found that pretty scary, not sure how I'd cope with a bigger one !

**mathare** · 12th February 2008

Time for another one of these updates I guess.

The first thing to cover is how surprised I am by my football betting so far. A strike rate in excess of 60% and a profit of around 12pts is it? (I can't be fussed to check at the mo) I have always trusted in stats but football is a funny old game, as the old cliche goes, and I have been pleasantly surprised how predictable the Premiership has been and how often the stats have come good. And my bank balance is quite pleased about it too as I have been putting my own hard-earned on the selections. I don't have a staking plan in place really, just a fixed amount per point and I will probably continue with that till the end of the season and then use the summer to revisit things.

What else while the weekly stats calculations are continuing in the background?

My bets on the horses are going quite well. Not my bets so much as the systems I follow, but you knew what I meant. I'm no horse tipster, that's for sure. Today was a bit of a bummer for the systems but overall things are looking quite good. It was a nice clean sheet on the lays too. The NHPM lays have been incredible recently. I have been making a very nice profit on them so far this year and long may it continue.

Can't think of too much else I wanted to share with you. I haven't played poker for ages. Not really had much time. What else is there? Oh yeah... :splapme

Auto-Sys!! Development continues at a decent (but not staggering) pace but then I only get a short time each evening to do anything on it. The last week or so I have been making some significant changes to the structure under the hood (and yes, perhaps I should have just designed it better in the first place) and am pleased with the way that is all going. I am certainly seeing progress towards what I always knew Auto-Sys could be. In fact I am hoping to get an alpha release out in the next couple of weeks (hopefully before then) and will be looking to enlist some volunteers. On the basis of the feedback from that I hope to go beta within the following couple of weeks and then on to the first release. I expect the core workbook will then go through several versions as I made planned improvements but I am keen to get a working version available as soon as possible. I'll be posting further details of the alpha/beta testing and how you can get involved on the forum soon. And with that I had better go and get on with some of the coding.

I'll leave you with the weekly stats...
BB stats for 11/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>664</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>104</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>84</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.65%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>80.77%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.56</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>5.30</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.26%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>59</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>126</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>39</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.37%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.95%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>6.66</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.39%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.35%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>11</td><td align=center>26</td><td align=center>149</td><td align=center>147</td><td align=center>947</td><td align=center>797</td><td align=center>72</td><td align=center>184</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>43</td><td align=center>48</td><td align=center>341</td><td align=center>299</td><td align=center>27</td><td align=center>73</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>45.45%</td><td align=center>30.77%</td><td align=center>28.86%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>36.01%</td><td align=center>37.52%</td><td align=center>37.50%</td><td align=center>39.67%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.17</td><td align=center>-8.13</td><td align=center>4.57</td><td align=center>-1.49</td><td align=center>97.95</td><td align=center>13.48</td><td align=center>-7.56</td><td align=center>7.03</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>6.96%</td><td align=center>11.45%</td><td align=center>2.17%</td><td align=center>1.75%</td><td align=center>0.78%</td><td align=center>0.13%</td><td align=center>3.08%</td><td align=center>-0.61%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>314</td><td align=center>1327</td><td align=center>515</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>265</td><td align=center>46</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>256</td><td align=center>1144</td><td align=center>449</td><td align=center>80</td><td align=center>223</td><td align=center>41</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.53%</td><td align=center>86.21%</td><td align=center>87.18%</td><td align=center>84.21%</td><td align=center>84.15%</td><td align=center>89.13%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.78</td><td align=center>5.33</td><td align=center>12.29</td><td align=center>-0.07</td><td align=center>-0.11</td><td align=center>0.87</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.66%</td><td align=center>13.02%</td><td align=center>10.38%</td><td align=center>10.38%</td><td align=center>5.79%</td><td align=center>-1.58%</td></tr></table>

**mathare** · 18th February 2008

Auto-Sys development continues at a pleasing pace. I had some trouble hooking up various bits of it over the weekend but I think the bulk of the problems are behind me now.

I have decided to implement a phased delivery, which will run something along the lines of:
Phase 1 - beta release made available for testing purposes only. This version will contain the bulk of the functionality but only dummy systems will be available for use with Auto-Sys
Phase 2 - the first proper release of Auto-Sys, available to whoever wants it. At this point I will have fixed all the major issues arising from the previous beta testing phase and will be taking orders for 3rd party systems to add in. At this point in time Auto-Sys won't be 100% complete and how I want it to be but it'll be close
Phase 3 - ongoing development and rework to improve core functionality

I should explain a little about the design of Auto-Sys to help put the above into context a little more for you.

Auto-Sys will come in several parts, the main of which is the Auto-Sys workbook which contains the core code. By itself this workbook will do virtually nothing, at least nothing that will be visible and obvious to the user. It requires at least add-in module to get anything out of it, and it's these add-ins that the third-party systems code is supplied in. These are the clever bits really. Think of the Auto-Sys workbook as a skeleton, if you like. The add-in modules then contain tendons, ligaments, muscles and flesh to attach to these skeleton and give the user something useful. Or something like that anyway.

In Phase 2 of the delivery I will release the main workbook and can start to code up your systems. I need to get to this stage as soon as possible really for several reasons (not least the fact that I want to start seeing a return on this effort) so the code will not be perfect at that point. During Phase 3 I plan to make a few performance and maintainability upgrades that will allow me to speed up Auto-Sys and also make future expansion much easier. The impact on your add-in modules should be minimal (hopefully zero!) at this point.

So when will Auto-Sys be available for beta testing? I don't know, is the honest answer. Soon - I can't really be any more accurate than that. But the code is maturing each and every day and new features are being added (or at least hooks for new features are anyway). I am currently refactoring a lot of the code that obtains the racecard data and searches for the system qualifiers but that shouldn't take too much longer to sort out. This whole exercise has made me realise what a mess the original Auto-Sys code was/is but it still runs quick enough. Hopefully this refactoring will result in a slicker, smoother Auto-Sys. I also need to add in better error logging and things like this. The original Auto-Sys has been for my own personal use only so includes none of that sort of stuff.

It's definitely getting there

And what's more I have plans to take it even further in the future - possibly rewriting the whole thing from scratch to take it out of Excel

Watch this space for more details...

**Jonny2621** · 18th February 2008

Thanks for the update Mat, I'm sure all the hard work will be worth it.

**tophatter** · 18th February 2008

pleasing figures there mat, not many red and those red figures are small when compared with some of the black figures.

**mathare** · 23rd February 2008

BB stats for 18/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>673</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>107</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>256</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>85</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>38.04%</td><td align=center>66.53%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>8.65</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.36%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>61</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>132</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>26</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>40</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.62%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.30%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.89</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>3.54</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.36%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.20%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>11</td><td align=center>28</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>149</td><td align=center>966</td><td align=center>799</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>193</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>44</td><td align=center>48</td><td align=center>347</td><td align=center>300</td><td align=center>38</td><td align=center>79</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>45.45%</td><td align=center>32.14%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>32.21%</td><td align=center>35.92%</td><td align=center>37.55%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td><td align=center>40.93%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.17</td><td align=center>-7.13</td><td align=center>-6.93</td><td align=center>-3.49</td><td align=center>93.96</td><td align=center>15.21</td><td align=center>-9.33</td><td align=center>11.76</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>6.96%</td><td align=center>16.20%</td><td align=center>2.67%</td><td align=center>1.81%</td><td align=center>1.03%</td><td align=center>0.17%</td><td align=center>3.77%</td><td align=center>-0.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>321</td><td align=center>1334</td><td align=center>524</td><td align=center>96</td><td align=center>273</td><td align=center>55</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>262</td><td align=center>1151</td><td align=center>458</td><td align=center>81</td><td align=center>230</td><td align=center>50</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.62%</td><td align=center>86.28%</td><td align=center>87.40%</td><td align=center>84.38%</td><td align=center>84.25%</td><td align=center>90.91%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.57</td><td align=center>6.01</td><td align=center>13.15</td><td align=center>0.03</td><td align=center>-0.14</td><td align=center>1.73</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.80%</td><td align=center>12.97%</td><td align=center>10.41%</td><td align=center>10.65%</td><td align=center>5.49%</td><td align=center>1.02%</td></tr></table>

**mathare** · 23rd February 2008

That's a bit of housekeeping done (I think the forum move to the new server has screwed up my HTML tables, most of which I have been able to recreate simply and repasted) and this week's stats have been posted. But I didn't want to go through the numbers too much this week. Things are ticking along nicely enough. One system I will mention is NHPM (NH Profit Machine lays) which is rocketing along and has seen me able to trim my staking percentage on that one from 1% fixed stake down to 0.95% fixed stake. Not a big move but one in the right direction and as the bank increases I will be making similar percentage stake cuts to build further safety in to the bank.

I wanted to do a bit more general blogging in this post. Midweek saw my first attempt at Champions League betting. I know a couple of football punters who swear by this competition and rely on it for a decent chunk of their profits every season but I confess to being less impressed. Yes, there are a lot of markets on each game which makes you think it should be possible to find value etc but the games just don't excite me. I find the Premiership a better spectacle and a much more predictable betting medium. My stats-based approach is going great guns in the Premiership but struggling in the Champions League, probably due to the relative number of games in each competition. But I'll be betting on the next set of Champions League games all the same - I'm not that disheartened.

Today is an awkward day for me. I am being picked up around 1pm to go to a mate's housewarming down in Kent. Don't get me wrong, I want to go but I have a dilemma: to bet or not to bet? Do I put all my bets on before I go out or just have a day off? I am presently torn on this one. Putting all the bets on before I go out is similar to what I do during the week (when I put all my bets on at lunchtime and just leave it to see what happens) but at weekends I like to keep my eye on things. I don't do anything staggeringly different at weekends as I still put the bets on in big chunks. I think the timing has a lot to do with it. Were I being picked up at 2pm I would have all my bets on and wouldn't bat an eyelid about it. But 1pm... I dunno. I am also missing out on the opportunity to monitor my football bets and to perhaps tinker with the rugby. Why do people do 'normal' things on such excellent betting days?

Finally, another Auto-Sys update. I redesigned chunks of it again last night (let's face it - I'm likely to do this quite a lot until I tie my hands by releasing it to someone) and it is getting better. The version I am developing now has around 80% of the functionality of the version I use to provide the W2W eBook qualifiers on a daily basis. The plan is to get the remaining functionality into the new version allowing me to compare the results of the two versions side by side to confirm that the new version behaves the same as the current version. Once that is done and I am satisfied it works as expected I need to develop a few test systems and then I can put the beta version out. There are still a few issues that myself and my business partner in this need to thrash out before we can fully officially release though. I am pleased with progress to date though.

**mathare** · 2nd March 2008

It's been a while since I have been able to update this due to one thing and another. Things have been mega-hectic at work and probably will be for a while to come yet, but I have also been laid low with a really nasty cold that knocked me for six. As such I have got behind on a few things, such as maintaining this blog and developing the new version of Auto-Sys I'm afraid. But I am just about over the cold now so I am hoping to get back on track soon enough.

The first thing I need (want) to do is give the weekly stats update so...
BB stats for 25/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>683</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>107</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>259</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>85</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.92%</td><td align=center>66.53%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>4.90</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.56%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>61</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>136</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>26</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>41</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.62%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.15%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.89</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>2.29</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.36%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.49%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>14</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>178</td><td align=center>151</td><td align=center>977</td><td align=center>801</td><td align=center>114</td><td align=center>198</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>52</td><td align=center>50</td><td align=center>350</td><td align=center>300</td><td align=center>47</td><td align=center>80</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>42.86%</td><td align=center>31.03%</td><td align=center>29.21%</td><td align=center>33.11%</td><td align=center>35.82%</td><td align=center>37.45%</td><td align=center>41.23%</td><td align=center>40.40%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.67</td><td align=center>-8.13</td><td align=center>9.94</td><td align=center>-1.86</td><td align=center>94.08</td><td align=center>13.21</td><td align=center>-8.59</td><td align=center>10.01</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.17%</td><td align=center>13.80%</td><td align=center>2.04%</td><td align=center>1.70%</td><td align=center>1.29%</td><td align=center>0.21%</td><td align=center>3.96%</td><td align=center>0.12%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>325</td><td align=center>1338</td><td align=center>534</td><td align=center>99</td><td align=center>275</td><td align=center>64</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>266</td><td align=center>1154</td><td align=center>468</td><td align=center>83</td><td align=center>231</td><td align=center>59</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.85%</td><td align=center>86.25%</td><td align=center>87.64%</td><td align=center>83.84%</td><td align=center>84.00%</td><td align=center>92.19%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.19</td><td align=center>5.54</td><td align=center>14.27</td><td align=center>-0.36</td><td align=center>-0.80</td><td align=center>2.59</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.73%</td><td align=center>12.94%</td><td align=center>10.50%</td><td align=center>11.18%</td><td align=center>5.70%</td><td align=center>0.10%</td></tr></table>
I don't plan to discuss these stats in detail as I was going to post the month-end stats for February shortly and perhaps go through those a bit. Suffice it to say for now that I am happy with the way things are progressing this year.

**mathare** · 2nd March 2008

Now the stats to the end of February:
BB stats for 29/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>688</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>107</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>260</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>85</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.79%</td><td align=center>66.53%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.65</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.53%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>63</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>137</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>27</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>41</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.86%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>29.93%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.39</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>1.29</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.67%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.28%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>185</td><td align=center>153</td><td align=center>985</td><td align=center>802</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>205</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>10</td><td align=center>54</td><td align=center>51</td><td align=center>352</td><td align=center>301</td><td align=center>50</td><td align=center>82</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>30.30%</td><td align=center>29.19%</td><td align=center>33.33%</td><td align=center>35.74%</td><td align=center>37.53%</td><td align=center>41.67%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.76</td><td align=center>-7.63</td><td align=center>10.35</td><td align=center>-1.95</td><td align=center>91.08</td><td align=center>14.31</td><td align=center>-9.81</td><td align=center>6.89</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.22%</td><td align=center>19.44%</td><td align=center>2.37%</td><td align=center>1.67%</td><td align=center>1.35%</td><td align=center>0.22%</td><td align=center>4.00%</td><td align=center>0.01%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>326</td><td align=center>1343</td><td align=center>541</td><td align=center>101</td><td align=center>276</td><td align=center>70</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>267</td><td align=center>1158</td><td align=center>474</td><td align=center>85</td><td align=center>232</td><td align=center>65</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.90%</td><td align=center>86.22%</td><td align=center>87.62%</td><td align=center>84.16%</td><td align=center>84.06%</td><td align=center>92.86%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.09</td><td align=center>5.72</td><td align=center>14.41</td><td align=center>-0.17</td><td align=center>-0.71</td><td align=center>3.35</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.80%</td><td align=center>12.97%</td><td align=center>10.45%</td><td align=center>11.06%</td><td align=center>5.73%</td><td align=center>1.30%</td></tr></table>

What are the highlights this month? The one that stands out most to me is the NHPM lays as they are on fire! I said a couple of weeks ago that they were doing well and that I had started to reduce the stakes on them to build on more security for the system bank and things have just gone from good to even better. The strike rate is over 90% this year and more than half my total profit on the system has come in the first two months of this year. OK, those figures are slightly misleading as I am talking cash terms and as long as banks continue to grow and stakes rise then more recent bets will have a bigger influence on the overall profit. But even so, I can't believe how well it is going. At the start of the year my base bet (BB) for this system was £40 (£4 fixed stake with an 11.0 cutoff). It is now £65 and that's after trimming the percentage stake slightly. The bank barrier is now protecting more than the original bank and it's only set at 30% (as it is for all my lay systems).

The Easy Money laying system is also doing well now after a slightly shaky start. It took a little while to steady out and get going but now that it has it is running along nicely and producing steady profits, which is pleasing. The backs were a bit of a mixed bag this month as we shall see in a second.

Let's have a look at the banks that set a new record low this month:
System Banker (2nd attempt), Good'un, ABS, Flat Monthly, NH Monthly

And those that recorded a new high point this month:
Flat Monthly, Double Top, Jumping for Profit, Easy Money Lays, NHPM

It's no real surprise to see Flat Monthly in both lists as the system bank is still immature and settling down. It currently stands just over it's starting point though so I am happy enough with that one. I think I covered the System Banker problems sufficiently at the start of the month and now the month is over I will be dropping that one from the stats. Double Top and Jumping for Profit have both slipped back a bit from their peaks in the middle of the month but they are still doing well enough to keep me smiling.

I haven't had time or the energy for much trading this month. And dutching has been quiet for the same time reasoning really. My football betting seems to be going alright though, and that's very pleasing.

That'll do for now I think. I don't need to bore you any further do I? The figures are all there for you to do your own comparisons and analysis should you so desire. The bottom line is I am making money and that's always good!

**mathare** · 2nd March 2008

Yesterday (Saturday 1st March) was a bit of a weird one. I was over at a poker game in Crayford the previous evening and didn't get back home till about midday (thanks Keith for covering Auto-Sys for me). I was supposed to be going out to see my mum and grandparents about 1 or 2 o'clock too so I didn't really have a lot of time to do much. But I managed to find just enough time to get all my bets on, including sorting out my football bets, and I'm glad I did as it was a pretty decent day. A couple of very nice winners on the backs and a great day on the lays saw me net a nice profit on the day. A few more corners in the Man City v Wigan game wouldn't have gone amiss but the ref got it right with the bookings anyway.

Today I will be out during the racing again as the missus wants to go looking at washer-dryers in Currys and Comet. OK, I admit it - it was actually partly (mostly?) my idea but I am doing it for a peaceful life and hoping that it buys me the evening off to work on stuff on my PC. After all, those of you with the Jumping for Profit eBook will soon be beating me up if I don't get things sorted out for Auto-Sys so that needs to take priority over new Auto-Sys development.

I'll update this (and more popular areas of the forum) with more details on Auto-Sys as and when they are available...

**tophatter** · 2nd March 2008

Nice work Matt,

The flat monthly and The NHPM lays are the two banks that are really flying for me too. My gambling has settled down now into a constant consisitent rythm and thats how I gamble best.

**mathare** · 12th March 2008

It's been a LONG time since I updated this and that means I have broken the golden rule from my Action Plan of updating it at least once a week. Sorry folks, but I have my reasons. I just can't remember them all right now. I have had so much on, both at work and outside of the office that updating this gamblog has been very much on the back burner. But I am so far behind that I feel I need to make an effort to get back on track.

So let's start with a set of numbers - the system stats that I should have posted last week (from the week ending 3rd March):
BB stats for 03/03/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td><td align=center width="100">Football</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>697</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>107</td><td align=center>257</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>263</td><td align=center>167</td><td align=center>85</td><td align=center>129</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.73%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td><td align=center>50.19%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.58</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td><td align=center>2.65</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.64%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>64</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>138</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>28</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>42</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.43%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.66</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>3.39</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.76%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.12%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>187</td><td align=center>154</td><td align=center>993</td><td align=center>804</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>211</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>10</td><td align=center>54</td><td align=center>51</td><td align=center>354</td><td align=center>302</td><td align=center>50</td><td align=center>83</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>30.30%</td><td align=center>28.88%</td><td align=center>33.12%</td><td align=center>35.65%</td><td align=center>37.56%</td><td align=center>41.67%</td><td align=center>39.34%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.76</td><td align=center>-7.63</td><td align=center>8.35</td><td align=center>-2.95</td><td align=center>91.42</td><td align=center>13.67</td><td align=center>-9.81</td><td align=center>4.08</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.22%</td><td align=center>19.44%</td><td align=center>2.44%</td><td align=center>1.67%</td><td align=center>1.55%</td><td align=center>0.23%</td><td align=center>4.00%</td><td align=center>0.04%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>326</td><td align=center>1344</td><td align=center>550</td><td align=center>102</td><td align=center>279</td><td align=center>75</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>267</td><td align=center>1159</td><td align=center>483</td><td align=center>86</td><td align=center>234</td><td align=center>69</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.90%</td><td align=center>86.24%</td><td align=center>87.82%</td><td align=center>84.31%</td><td align=center>83.87%</td><td align=center>92.00%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.09</td><td align=center>5.82</td><td align=center>15.27</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>-0.77</td><td align=center>3.53</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.80%</td><td align=center>12.94%</td><td align=center>10.38%</td><td align=center>10.97%</td><td align=center>5.81%</td><td align=center>2.59%</td></tr></table>

Just so as you know, I'm not going to go through these stats in any sort of detail. Perhaps I should, bring out the highlights of the betting week. But I'm just not really in a position to be able to do that. The week was a winning week overall, but not by a massive amount (twenty quid or so) and that's almost entirely thanks to the NHPM system which made great profits that week (and continues to do so actually) to offset losses on other systems. And that's about all I plan to say on things really. Other than to say that I have had two horse banks reach new highs so far this month (NHPM lays and Easy Money lays) and three hit new lows (CD Lays, Double Top, NH Monthly) with the last two triggering bank barriers.

And with that I'll leave you with the most recent stats update and come back shortly with some words of wisdom - or just some general babble depending on your point of view
BB stats for 10/03/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td><td align=center width="100">Football</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>703</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>107</td><td align=center>278</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>264</td><td align=center>167</td><td align=center>85</td><td align=center>138</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.55%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td><td align=center>49.64%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.17</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td><td align=center>0.29</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.73%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>80</td><td align=center>65</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>140</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>28</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>43</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>22.50%</td><td align=center>43.08%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.71%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>9.52</td><td align=center>-4.66</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>5.89</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>30.76%</td><td align=center>7.68%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.36%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>203</td><td align=center>155</td><td align=center>1006</td><td align=center>807</td><td align=center>127</td><td align=center>222</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>12</td><td align=center>57</td><td align=center>51</td><td align=center>355</td><td align=center>302</td><td align=center>52</td><td align=center>87</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>32.43%</td><td align=center>28.08%</td><td align=center>32.90%</td><td align=center>35.29%</td><td align=center>37.42%</td><td align=center>40.94%</td><td align=center>39.19%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.76</td><td align=center>-5.69</td><td align=center>-1.48</td><td align=center>-3.95</td><td align=center>80.67</td><td align=center>10.67</td><td align=center>-11.81</td><td align=center>3.50</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.22%</td><td align=center>22.24%</td><td align=center>2.45%</td><td align=center>1.70%</td><td align=center>1.62%</td><td align=center>0.26%</td><td align=center>4.40%</td><td align=center>0.46%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>335</td><td align=center>1351</td><td align=center>561</td><td align=center>106</td><td align=center>286</td><td align=center>87</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>276</td><td align=center>1166</td><td align=center>493</td><td align=center>89</td><td align=center>241</td><td align=center>79</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>82.39%</td><td align=center>86.31%</td><td align=center>87.88%</td><td align=center>83.96%</td><td align=center>84.27%</td><td align=center>90.80%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.23</td><td align=center>6.49</td><td align=center>15.86</td><td align=center>-0.07</td><td align=center>-0.10</td><td align=center>3.90</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.89%</td><td align=center>13.02%</td><td align=center>10.44%</td><td align=center>11.17%</td><td align=center>6.17%</td><td align=center>2.70%</td></tr></table>

**mathare** · 13th March 2008

So what have I been up to recently?

Keith sent out the new rules to the Jumping For Profit eBook so I had to update Auto-Sys for those, something I did just over a week ago now and as no-one has screamed at me about the qualifiers I am going to assume I did a pretty good job. I did double check a few of the rule changes with Keith to make sure I got Auto-Sys as accurate as I could make it. Thankfully the changes were pretty straightforward which has given me confidence in the way I have developed the basics of Auto-Sys. It also means that when Keith makes changes to other eBook systems I should be able to handle those nice and easily too. I got quite a nice warm glow from how smoothly this update went really.

I got another warm glow from a quick search on my hard drive recently too. In another of my (soon to be infamous) deep thought sessions in the shower I decided to renew my interest in blackjack staking plans. I had looked into this in the past although not in that much detail. I knew I had started to knock up a spreadsheet to test various plans but couldn't recall how far I had got. I assumed I hadn't done much but I was quite wrong. OK, it doesn't include many actual staking plans but the framework is there for it to support a lot of different plans. It even seems as though I have done a bit of work on a front-end for it to. I figured I'd be starting from more or less scratch but in actual fact I have done a lot of the hard work already. Always nice to uncover odd forgotten gems like that. Not that I will be doing anything much with it for a while yet as I have other projects I need to complete before this one gets my attention. You've seen my Action Plan at the start of this gamblog but that ain't the half of it. I have a lot of plans for other things that I am not going to force myself to commit to by adding them to the action plan for 2008 but they remain part of the overall plan. And of course, me being me, I keep having ideas for new projects and also thinking of improvements to things I have already 'finished'.

Take Auto-Sys as an example of this last point. I have been working on this almost every evening and most weekends. I have poured my heart and soul into it. OK, the time invested in it isn't the issue at all and I could have reached the same point in a lot less time were that time in larger continuous blocks rather than an hour here and there as I am often reluctant to start something in an evening that I know will take several hours to complete as it won't always be easy to split the task and pick it back up again. And yeah, Auto-Sys has taken me longer than I expected and certainly longer than planned but that's the nature of software development. After all, I'm not exactly following traditional lifecycle or using a structured development environment. I certainly should be doing the latter (and I stopped in the middle of the previous sentence to investigate something down this route, which just goes to show I can't focus on one thing at once at the minute) but I'm not so I just have to deal with that. It's getting awkward though and hard to manage. I should invest the time, if not some money also, to set up a decent version control system at least. There, I've put that in my blog now so I am gonna have to see it through.

In fact I have just taken half an hour or so out of writing this to quickly investigate open source version control applications and installed one to see how it goes. I feel much better for that. Now if only I knew how it worked properly...

OK, let's be honest here - it wasn't half an hour. It was going to be just half an hour, just to get the basics sorted. But in the end I played with it for a while and in doing so opened up a right can of wormy viper's nests that mean I have a lot to do to get it set up properly but the benefits of doing so will be worth it. And that little play took me the rest of the evening which is why I am writing this bit the lunchtime after I started writing this post. Whoops. I need to stop having thoughts in the middle of tasks I am currently working on else I get distracted and start off down another route. I need blinkers on my brain.

Let's get back on track shall we. Actually, where was I and where was I heading? Oh yeah, Auto-Sys as an example of improvements to completed projects. I could just draw a line under Auto-Sys and say it is only useful for Keith's eBook systems and will always operate on a subscription basis as it does currently. But I wouldn't be satisfied with that. I know what Auto-Sys can do given the chance and I know it could be useful to so many people so I have to update it to support third-party systems. I have pretty much done all of that now - indeed the software has entered alpha testing recently despite me hitting a significant problem over the weekend that threatened to scupper the whole project but I won't (and can't) go into detail on that really. I am over that hurdle now and heading down the home straight. That said I still don't have a release date for Auto-Sys. I don't actually have an agreed list of what needs to be done before the release. I need to have lengthy discussions with my business partner really before I can even put out a beta. I had hoped to have a full release out by Easter but that's not going to happen. Maybe the beta will be out by then though - we'll see. I am both excited and frustrated though as I have done all the hard work and jumped over hurdles I wasn't expecting to encounter and feel as though I am so close to being ready. But it's right that my business partner in this is reining me in (albeit perhaps not intentionally) as there are still some important business decisions to be made and he does have a certain amount more expertise than me in these areas. The bottom line is the technical side of things is just about done and has entered a testing phase. And that's good news I feel. That said I have plans for a few new features even after it is released. I just cannot draw a line under anything and say it's done. I'd be a rubbish artist. I'd go to galleries and see my paintings on the wall and want a brush and some paints just to touch it up a bit.

I was going to issue an update on my action plan around now but there's not much new to report. I have already mentioned the blackjack staking plan analysis work and my continued development of Auto-Sys, of course. I haven't had time for any of the system staking analysis I was going to conduct either. And I haven't played online poker for a couple of months now. I still tinker in the casinos now and then though. I have regular bonuses from Littlewoods and Coral to collect but Paddy Power have been disappointing with their bonuses this year. The bonuses from the Irish fellas have either been few and far between or lousy when they do come along. Ah well. Victor Chandler have offered me a decent enough bonus worth up to £200 though so I will have a play on that one and see how it goes. It's gonna take me five grand's worth of blackjack though so it's a few evenings work.

What else have I got to tell you? Hopefully not much then I can get this posted and finally eat the sandwich I went out and bought between paragraphs. I wrote a dutching calculator spreadsheet the other day, but only because MattR made me. I'm pleased with how well it works though. I had it working for a given stake quickly enough but couldn't get my head round getting it working for a given profit target but another of those thinking sessions in the shower soon sorted that. The main problem with those shower sessions is that it means I have a lot of my good ideas just before I go to work and then I don't have time to do anything with them immediately, which is what I would like to do. Ain't life a bitch? Anyway, writing that dutching calculator made me think that I should do more with these little applications I write rather than just leaving them to fester on my hard drive. I have numerous things like that I have started (and a couple I have even finished!) that I should store somewhere properly and make available to the punting public. There you go, one more thing for the 'to do' list - create myself a website through which to release all my useful VBA applications plus other tricks and tips. One day...

I have a new hobby - and normally I wouldn' t mention hobbies in a gamblog but I feel I ought to this time because it's something that takes time away from the umpteen other things I have planned and because it's gambling-related. The missus and I have started to enter as many competitions as we can. Not the ring to win jobbies but ones on the internet and ones you can enter by sending your name and address on a postcard. I figured we should give it a go for a few months and see if we can win anything. After all, for years I have seen these competitions and thought "I can't be bothered". The more people that think like that the better my chances of winning. Someone has to win these things so I figured why not me? I could do with a few holidays, a car and some kitchen appliances. And anything we win that we don't want we'll just flog on Ebay :) I'll let you know how we get on...

Finally it's Cheltenham this week and I have to admit it has been a bit of a disappointment for me this year. Last year I was very well prepared and took time out to study all the cards etc but this year I have been way too busy at work (and with all the other stuff I have going on as mentioned above) that I have hardly had time to look at any of the cards. And with three days racing being sqeezed into two that makes things even more hectic and intense for those days so I have more or less given up on even looking at the cards. I'll watch the highlights and what have you but for this year the festival is going to pass me by almost unnoticed, which is a shame.

And now I need to eat!

**mathare** · 16th March 2008

I'll tell you what - I'm glad Cheltenham is over. I didn't enjoy the festival much at all this year if truth be told. I hit a couple of winners, including Denman, but I hit many more losers. I didn't get chance to focus on some of the races as I normally do nor did I get chance to watch many of them. I have recorded the highlights and watched those of day 1 and will watch the others sometime later today but I just felt that I couldn't get into it at all this year and the money I lost was just slipping through my fingers and there was little I could do about it.

March has been a pretty miserable month for me, gambling-wise. Little seems to be going to plan. I try to remain emotionally detached from my betting and mostly I manage that without any problems. But recently it has become a bit of a chore for me as I'm not getting the same enjoyment out of it and when I am having twice as many losing days as I am winning days (10 losers and 5 winners this month) it just adds to the misery. Misery may not be the right word exactly, maybe it's a bit too strong. But it just seems that my punting is becoming a bit of a bind. I have bank after bank hitting the bank barriers at the minute as some of my NH banks went into freefall. Of the backs yesterday there were 19 of which 15 were under bank barriers so I only placed 4 backing bets. The lays are doing OK but the backs are just a mess at the minute. I'm sure things will recover in time but I'm just having a miserable time of it all. It doesn't help that I have felt rough for the past few days (lack of sleep/unable to sleep, stomach ache since Friday night and just generally run down) and the weather is lousy. I don't have anything pepping me up. Auto-Sys development has stagnated (thankfully at the stage where I think it is complete enough to go out) and my mind is moving on to other things. I need to get excited about something (Auto-Sys finally being released, a new development project getting underway etc.) to break this misery cycle.

Only one meeting today so there is limited opportunity to dent my losses for the month. I took a kicking yesterday too. Towards the end of the afternoon I had enough time to pay Bet-IE some attention and that proved to be an expensive mistake with three losing dutches and two winners costing me around 2.5BB all told. And now my dutching is under a bank barrier too.

It's been a tough week really and I could do with some good news just to give me the positive outlook and confidence to really come out firing again because at the minute I am expecting every day to end with a loss. Not a big loss really, just enough to keep grinding me down bit by bit.

**Jonny2621** · 16th March 2008

Similar situation here Mat, hit a few winners but hit enough losers to make the week a bit of an anti-climax. There seem to have been a lot of favourites turned over the last four weeks and some crazy long odds winners coing from nowhere. Dont know about you but cant wait for the flat season to start. Ive never been able to get as excited over NH racing with its last fence fallers when your back gets to 1.06 and mudlarks slogging round for their first win in 30 starts :splapme

Hopefully the weather will perk up soon and so will the racing

Had an email last night from the National Lottery BTW, said they had important news about the Euro Millions draw

Im thinking swimming pool, country pad, Aston Martin DBS ......

I won £7

All the best
Jon

**MattR** · 16th March 2008

Originally Posted by mathare

I wrote a dutching calculator spreadsheet the other day, but only because MattR made me. I'm pleased with how well it works though. I had it working for a given stake quickly enough but couldn't get my head round getting it working for a given profit target but another of those thinking sessions in the shower soon sorted that.

And bloody marvelous it is too.

Originally Posted by mathare

The main problem with those shower sessions is that it means I have a lot of my good ideas just before I go to work and then I don't have time to do anything with them immediately, which is what I would like to do. Ain't life a bitch?

On the plus side you don't smell :D

**mathare** · 30th March 2008

I haven't been updating this as regularly as I had planned and now Keith has added a new blog add-in I will be moving my blog there. So keep checking my proper blog for updates

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