mathare's gamblog 2008

**mathare** · 10th January 2008

Originally Posted by paul183195

hi mat, i was just wondering when do you decide to drop a system, if it has bust the bank a couple of times, once, or if it is showing a loss after a certain amount of bets ?

I will NEVER bust a bank twice, and very rarely bust a bank once. That's why I have bank barriers in place to prevent that from happening.

I make a keep/ditch decision on systems every time I do a staking/gambling review, which happens at least at the end of every year and sometimes at other points during the year depending on how much time I have and what the drivers are behind such a review. If I don't think it is up to scratch I ditch it without a second thought. That decision is based on profit to date, SR, ROI, number of qualifiers and all sorts of things.

**counterfeit** · 10th January 2008

I don't think this is worth a thread of its own but a gamblog seems a good place to ask the question.

I see a lot of people on various forums who try to increase their bank by 3% per day. If I wanted to start a new system would a 3% increase per day be realistic.

It seems a bit high to me but most of my systems are slow burners so I might just be backing the wrong systems or is 3% unrealistic?

**Jonny2621** · 10th January 2008

Originally Posted by counterfeit

I don't think this is worth a thread of its own but a gamblog seems a good place to ask the question.

I see a lot of people on various forums who try to increase their bank by 3% per day. If I wanted to start a new system would a 3% increase per day be realistic.

It seems a bit high to me but most of my systems are slow burners so I might just be backing the wrong systems or is 3% unrealistic?

In my humble opinion 1% is more realistic. Ive tried 3% myself and eventually you come under pressure to keep up with the target and go for bets that are not good ones.

I'd go 1% and if on certain days you hit 3% or more it goes in the kitty.

Some days, like today, the racing is so bad that you'd rather not have a target to chase ....:D

**mathare** · 10th January 2008

Originally Posted by counterfeit

I see a lot of people on various forums who try to increase their bank by 3% per day. If I wanted to start a new system would a 3% increase per day be realistic.

It seems a bit high to me but most of my systems are slow burners so I might just be backing the wrong systems or is 3% unrealistic?

Any daily target is unrealistic. You should have a good balance of systems with a mix of SRs and ROIs with banks that increase at different rates with different risk factors to give you a spread of systems really. Then your banks should increase, some faster than others. It may average out to 3% per day but it'll be in spikes and troughs generally speaking. Do not expect 3% each and every day and you won't be disappointed. Never chase losses to try and get to a set daily profit figure as you will come unstuck. Let the systems do the hard work, you just stake sensibly and take the money as it comes in

**mathare** · 12th January 2008

Figured I should bring this up to date a bit more.

The horses have been up and down for me in the past few days, but mostly up albeit not to a massive extent. I am happy with the way things are progressing though and really believe the recent gambling review was a good move. I'm a bit annoyed that I only got 5.2 on Weet By Far who just won the 7.20 At Wolves though. I went with Betdaq as it offered the best price when I placed the bet (about 5.30) but had I struck the bet with Stan James or Bet365 I would have got the 9/1 with their best odds guarantee. Still, a winner is a winner innit?

Talking of winners I had another couple of successful dutches today (2.15 At Kempton and 3.30 at Warwick) so that is ticking along nicely and the bank continues to climb steadily. When the bank doubles (currently stands at around 165% of starting value) I will consider stepping back the staking percentage a little. But making more use of Bet-IE seems to be another good decision made during the gambling review.

Played 1 more 10 pays 5 STT earlier and busted out in 7th, mainly because I got KK in the small blind and the button had AA. He raised, I re-raised and he shoved all in so I called. The blinds were low but I figured to be in good shape pre-flop and had him covered by over 400 chips. His aces held up, of course. I stole and bluffed my way to around 1000 chips again but by now the blinds were significant and I lost out with AQo against AKo. Flop came 9-Q-T and I knew what was coming as one of the next two cards. Yep, the turn came the J and the river was a rag. Goodnight Vienna.

Ah well.

By the way, the stats I said I was going to put up once a week - where are they? I am waiting for the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose against the New England Patriots in the NFL play-offs. I took Jacksonville at 22s to win the Super Bowl before their previous play-off match looking to trade out when they won, as I was confident they would do. And trade out I did for a small profit by laying at 16.5 the morning after the game. Incidentally Jacksonville are available at 24 on Betfair now so I am glad I traded when I did. But this trade is still open, although my book is green, until Jacksonville either win the Super Bowl or are eliminated in the play-offs. And this open bet means my stats for 4th Jan (when I placed the bet) are incomplete so until that is settled either way I won't have stats to publish. Obviously if they lose to the Pats then I can settle the bet and publish my stats. Otherwise I have to wait longer, perhaps even till the Super Bowl itself.

The missus is out tonight so after I have reheated some of last night's pizza I sense some poker action in the offing

**mathare** · 13th January 2008

These stats are brought to you courtesy of Tom Brady...

BB stats for 07/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>648</td><td align=center>243</td><td align=center>83</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>245</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>68</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.81%</td><td align=center>67.49%</td><td align=center>81.93%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.49</td><td align=center>56.18</td><td align=center>5.81</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.25%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>76</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>103</td><td align=center>442</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>32</td><td align=center>163</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.68%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>31.07%</td><td align=center>36.88%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>13.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>4.47</td><td align=center>99.82</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>22.02%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>7.53%</td><td align=center>9.67%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>126</td><td align=center>893</td><td align=center>781</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>162</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>2</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>321</td><td align=center>292</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>60</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>57.14%</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>29.37%</td><td align=center>35.95%</td><td align=center>37.39%</td><td align=center>55.56%</td><td align=center>37.04%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>0.30</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-13.03</td><td align=center>84.45</td><td align=center>11.20</td><td align=center>2.71</td><td align=center>-6.72</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>4.32%</td><td align=center>33.94%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>0.18%</td><td align=center>0.16%</td><td align=center>0.04%</td><td align=center>4.73%</td><td align=center>-0.23%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>300</td><td align=center>1304</td><td align=center>468</td><td align=center>74</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>4</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>245</td><td align=center>1124</td><td align=center>404</td><td align=center>61</td><td align=center>213</td><td align=center>3</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.67%</td><td align=center>86.20%</td><td align=center>86.32%</td><td align=center>82.43%</td><td align=center>85.20%</td><td align=center>75.00%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.07</td><td align=center>5.33</td><td align=center>8.78</td><td align=center>-0.85</td><td align=center>0.90</td><td align=center>-0.60</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.75%</td><td align=center>13.15%</td><td align=center>10.89%</td><td align=center>14.12%</td><td align=center>6.47%</td><td align=center>16.47%</td></tr></table>

**counterfeit** · 14th January 2008

Mat

How do you decide what race to dutch in?

I've tried dutching but with mixed success - I have made a profit but it is very small as the races I have lost in have a huge impact on previous profits.

I tend to dutch in a race where 2 or 3 horses are say 4/1 or below and the next horse in the betting is at least 10/1.

I can't seem to find much advice on dutching on T'internet so I know my strategy needs looking at.

**mathare** · 14th January 2008

Originally Posted by counterfeit

How do you decide what race to dutch in?

Bet-IE tells me whether a race is dutchable or not :)

**mathare** · 14th January 2008

Originally Posted by Mavrick

does anyone aim to get like 3000 chips and then sit out or do something similar or is that just a silly thing to do?

I won't do that because you can never be sure that 3000 is enough. It should be as it's twice your starting stack and you need to get 5th or better but the other players can just trade blinds with one another and whittle your stack down if they know what they are doing.

I had pretty much exactly this situation this evening in the one tourney I managed to fit in. It took till the 10th level to get a winner. I went out in 5th after 99 hands, and 1 hour and 20 minutes. I had stayed tight, very tight in the early levels. I was getting poor cards and with no need to steal small pots I did no pre-flop raising till well into the mid-blind levels (levels 4-5). I had a stack of around 2000 which I built up to around 3000 when an all-in steal from one off the button got an unexpected (and rather unwelcome) caller. I had A6o and the BB showed KTo. It was a risky steal from me in a way but it was for information as much as anything as I felt the button was too passive and the SB was similar. But I had 10BB left and felt like a shove. I expected the BB, who had around 1000 more chips than me to give up his 150 chips and let it go but he ummed and ahhed and called. I survived (luckily) but I did go into the flop as a narrow favourite (57-43) and in actual fact was never behind in the hand having just calculated the odds.

Anyway, we're down to 9 players with the blinds at 75/150 and there is a lot of tight play. I figure my stack is good enough and tighten up even further. I'm not playing into raised pots, I'm not playing out of position and I am folding trash without a second thought. I was also witnessing some dreadful short stack play - something I would see huge amounts of this evening. There were several players (at least 4) with stacks within a few hundred of the starting stack of 1500. The blinds rose so they are all in the 5BB-10BB region but do they shove? Nope. I fold a few and steal the odd pot from the SB as well as getting a few walks from the right and my stack remains healthy enough. I am chip leader or 2nd chip leader for most of it. But many of these guys are content to trade blinds. The other middling (but bigger than them) stacks are playing for safety. It's as though the bubble play has kicked in with 7 or 8 players at the table! There are hands where the BB is a known folder in the face of a raise but the button is too timid to do anything and the SB folds also. There was a lot of that. I was starting to get annoyed and nearly shoved on a few occasions thinking I would have to do their job for them and steal these blinds but others usually got their first, or I thought better of it after looking at my decent chip position.

I got a lucky break when I shoved my 1515 into the middle with the blinds at 300/600 and an earlier min raise. He called my shove and we flipped 'em over. My AK versus his KK. Oh

I was 70-30 against on this one but I had a saving grace - my Ace was the same suit as one of his Kings. If the Ace didn't hit I had the outside chance of a flush draw. No A but two hearts on the flop meant I was now only 4/1 to win the hand. Woohoo! The 10 of hearts on the turn put me back to 30% to win again and VERY luckily the river was 8h and I had hit the nut flush and won a very nice pot (4230 chips). This was surely a safe enough stack to see me into the money, no?

Actually, it was, but only just. The blind trading among the small stacks continued with one guy (who finished 6th) nursing a small stack for a long time. He even folded his 800 BB when he only had 690 left after posting and I shoved in on him trying to bust him. In the end it was me, him and the guy who called me earlier from the BB in the pot that did for me. And what a hand for me to go bust on!

We're 6-handed and I get AA on the button. Oh yes! The short stacks are in the blinds. UTG calls and it is folded round to me so I shove all in. 3930 chips with the blinds at 400/800 I figure it's only 5BB so it has to all go in. I was 2nd in chips at the time but the blind-trading by others had left me feeling a little vulnerable. They were determined to turn this game into a crap-shoot at the high blinds so with Aces I had to make a stand. Shove. The SB folds and the BB calls off his remaining 240 chips (bless). I figure the UTG limper will drop it and be happy to make the money when I bust the BB. No, he bloody calls. Again. That's twice he has done that to me. He called me first time with TdKs and lost. This time he had... ThKs. Same King but the other red 10. He lost last time and I am well in front this time with the BB holding Jc3s. I'm over 75% to win the pot at this stage and that doesn't change much when the flop comes down 5c-8s-Td. The turn card of 9c gives the short-stack a little hope but I am still around 70% to win the hand. So a King on the river was just a little mean as UTG has busted us both. I had more chips than the BB so he finishes 6th and I bag 5th. But 5th is as good as first in terms of payouts.

It goes to show though that if some players either know what they are doing and play a cunning game or are so stupid that even the basics of tournament play escape them then even a decent-looking stack can be put in danger if they can turn the game into a high-blind crap-shoot. I guess it's a form of implicit collusion and one that there is not much anyone can do about it. Players are trying to hold out a short stack till the bubble bursts but if too many people try it then it can change the game radically as the blinds just move round the table without the bigger stacks getting their 'fair' share of the walks that are happening. In real terms the short stacks get shorter as the blinds increase and they have less fold equity but without someone willing to shove and risk going bust this game is likely to continue in that vein. And there was no way I was shoving from 2nd chip lead without a monster.

So there you go: a very real example of why you shouldn't get to 3000 chips and then sit out.

**Mavrick** · 15th January 2008

I have played a ton of these tourneys the last few days and have had a few very similar experiences where I don't think 5000 chips would have been remotely safe. I must have gone all-in about 10 times in one of them.

I play a couple of tables at the same time, but I try and stagger them by a couple of levels so that they don't both hit the bubble at the same time, but when one just keeps dragging on and they both are at high blinds it can be a real struggle to keep up. It's a good buzz though when they finish if you make it into the money.

I only wish they were on Betfair or are they? so I could be earning some commision points, as I've got a stack of player points now and I can't really be bothered to spend 4 hours+ playing an MTT when I'm rubbish at them.

**mathare** · 16th January 2008

A bit of a rethink on the poker front after last night (won 1, lost 1). I've now cashed in 12/20 of these 10 pays 5 STTs and that is well down on what I thought I could do. I know I can play NLHE tourney poker and should be able to beat the STTs but these equal payout tourneys are a slightly different beast to the normal versions and a different strategy is required when it comes to the bubble I think.

Once we get 6- or 7-handed and I don't have a stack of 2500+ I think I am struggling. I seem to be, panicking isn't quite the right word but it's close, too early, especially when there are 3 or 4 of us on similar stacks of 1000-2000 chips and the blinds are big. I am always very conscious of my fold equity and make all-in steal raises when I think I can get away with it. Not many other players seem to do that at this level. It could be the fact that it's only a $5 STT so the players are weak and don't know how to play well on the bubble or it could be a factor of these equal payout tourneys as there is no incentive to aim for 1st place.

What I need to do is review my play around the bubble in the tourneys I have busted out of, running the hands through odds calculators to see whether I am shoving in bad spots or busting out unluckily on hands I 'should' have won. I then want to compare that to my short-handed and bubble play in regular STTs.

I'm going to play 50 of these equal payout tourneys (so 30 more) and then re-evaluate my position. Poker is a nice evening pastime at the minute but it's not making me much in the way of cash. If after 50 tourneys I am making a reasonable profit and have pushed my bankroll over $300 (currently $264) then I will take 1 shot at a $10+1 equal payout tourney to see if the standard of play is any better and whether it suits my game better. I'll then go from there as to whether I play $5 or $10 tourneys. If I am roughly breaking even or losing slightly (I don't think I'll be losing heavily based on my play and results to date) over 50 tourneys I'll have a think about what to do next. What I am leaning towards is playing 50 regular STTs and comparing the results to the equal payouts.

But for now I will use Poker Office to review my play to date and check out my bubble play. I think I am pushing too early (stack of 7-10BB) when others are surviving with 2-3BB and also perhaps folding too many hands out of the SB or from the BB to a min raise. Maybe I should be playing some of these hands. Standard STT bubble strategy doesn't seem to apply too well here.

**mathare** · 18th January 2008

I spend all day at work telling software developers not to make changes that could break the software just before we have to send a release of it out to the customer and then I come home and do exactly that

I rewrote some of my spreadsheet the other day and I broke my stats, which is why the week 2 stats haven't been posted up here yet. But unlike the developers at work I found the problem straight away and fixed it

So...

BB stats for 14/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>651</td><td align=center>244</td><td align=center>86</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>71</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.94%</td><td align=center>67.21%</td><td align=center>82.56%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.71</td><td align=center>57.12</td><td align=center>6.42</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.24%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>107</td><td align=center>469</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>172</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.84%</td><td align=center>36.67%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>5.49</td><td align=center>106.85</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>5.87%</td><td align=center>9.79%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>134</td><td align=center>902</td><td align=center>786</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>167</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>42</td><td align=center>325</td><td align=center>294</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>63</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>57.14%</td><td align=center>55.56%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>31.34%</td><td align=center>36.03%</td><td align=center>37.40%</td><td align=center>38.89%</td><td align=center>37.72%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>2.37</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-3.25</td><td align=center>85.78</td><td align=center>10.68</td><td align=center>-2.02</td><td align=center>-5.31</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>4.32%</td><td align=center>35.55%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>0.91%</td><td align=center>0.27%</td><td align=center>0.08%</td><td align=center>-2.86%</td><td align=center>-0.24%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>303</td><td align=center>1307</td><td align=center>480</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>255</td><td align=center>12</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>1127</td><td align=center>415</td><td align=center>64</td><td align=center>217</td><td align=center>10</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.52%</td><td align=center>86.23%</td><td align=center>86.46%</td><td align=center>82.05%</td><td align=center>85.10%</td><td align=center>83.33%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.42</td><td align=center>5.62</td><td align=center>9.50</td><td align=center>-1.12</td><td align=center>0.95</td><td align=center>-0.40</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.79%</td><td align=center>13.11%</td><td align=center>10.67%</td><td align=center>14.70%</td><td align=center>5.75%</td><td align=center>5.95%</td></tr></table>

**mathare** · 19th January 2008

Time to tick a couple of more things off the Action Plan for 2008.

This morning I signed up to Stan James' casino and played out the bonus there. I'm going to save that story for another time though. It's all a little bit complicated as it currently stands...

I also purchased The Staking Machine software, as I said I would. I want to optimise my staking for the systems and lays but I figured I'd start with the A+ bets just to get used to the software. And it takes some getting used to as the user interface is dreadful and the software doesn't contain several options I would like, such as:

o stats (bank min/max, min/max stake, ROI) for chosen staking plan
o scales on the mini-graphs
o ability to randomise data
o ability to compare staking plan with and without ratcheting side by side
etc.

I am paying only scant attention to the complicated staking plans because at this stage it is not my intention to make things any more difficult than they need be. I currently stake at 3% of the bank adjusted daily and it seems that the profits and ROI can be given a sweet little boost with a very quick and simple change - add in ratcheting on my stakes. And that's it. I have done some independent testing of TSM's figures in Excel and ratcheting results in a profit of 129% of the starting bank over the 650 recorded bets as opposed to a 53% profit without ratcheting the stakes. That's worth knowing. And those figures are calculated over 1000 randomisations of the data so they are not one-off flukes.

I am currently waiting for my TSM forum membership to be activated but once that is done I will be straight on there making my suggestions for improving a decent bit of software already. But I can see so much more potential in it...

**mathare** · 20th January 2008

Let's come back to that Stan James casino bonus shall we and try and work out what happened.

First off it's important to note that the bonus for this casino is unusual for the mainstream casino operators as it's not a non-sticky bonus. A non-sticky bonus is yours to do with as you like when you've earned it. Meet the wagering requirements and you can withdraw the bonus if you want. That's standard for the casinos from the main bookmakers. But Stan James' bonus is what's termed semi-sticky which means it remains in your account until you lose it, and you can only play it when you have no cash funds in your account. That second part is very important.

Most of the popular games are excluded from your wagering when working off a bonus because these games allow the casino gamer to get the bonus at minimal risk to their own funds. The casinos aren't stupid. But a lot of the time one of baccarat, blackjack or video poker will count towards the WR and in this case it was video poker. Excellent. I hadn't played that for a while so it'd make a nice change from blackjack. So yesterday I ground out the WR (£1000) over just under 3 hours of 4-line Jacks or Better at 5p a coin and 5 coins per hand (£1 total bet per deal). In doing so I lost £60.25, which is greater than I had 'budgeted' for but not to worry as the real fun was just about to start. Now the bonus was unlocked the plan was to get aggressive at the blackjack table and to make a few quid quickly.

I was a little annoyed that I couldn't separate my sports funds from my casino funds with Stan James. They have no concept of separate wallets for each as Ladbrokes, Paddy Power etc do. This meant I needed to get rid of the remaining cash in my account so I could play solely with the bonus so after putting on my remaining footy and horse bets that needed to be with Stan James I pulled the rest of my cash out. Now I just had this semi-sticky £100 in the casino. So I hit the blackjack tables betting £10 a hand. And it was a mixed start. I lost a couple, won a couple. And then it all started to go wrong. After I won a hand there would be "technical difficulties" with the software and I would have to reload the game. And when I did that the money I had won on the previous hand had disappeared from my balance

I was in the middle of a very cross e-mail to Stan James customer support when I checked back into my casino game window to see if it had settled down. And to my surprise it had - and my balance showed £100 not the £20 it had when I set off to rant at the operators. Interesting. It seems that what had happened each time I had had to reload was that only my semi-sticky balance was showing up and not my real cash balance. But that issue had fixed itself and my £100 was made up of a semi-sticky £20 and a withdrawable £80. Hmm, I'll have that!

So my video poker had cost me £60.25 but I had made back nearly £20 on top of that through the blackjack and that £80 was mine to do with as I please. It shows up in the casino and in the sportsbook. The semi-sticky £20 only shows in the casino but in order to be able to use that again I would need to pull my £80 out to leave just the semi-sticky bonus. I could then go aggressive again betting say £5 a hand and try and squeeze a bit more out of this £20 but remember anytime I lose any of the bonus it is gone for good so were I to lose the first hand I would be down to £15 and so on. And of course my own funds are gambled first, before the bonus funds.

However, I think withdrawing that £80 now and playing with the £20 will raise suspicions at SJ casino HQ after I did the same thing yesterday, only with the full bonus amount. So I'll leave it a while. I also hope to be able to build that £20 semi-sticky bonus up a little through the weekly free chips competitions in the Stan James newsletter. It's usually a spot the ball type competition with £10 in free chips to all winners and six options to choose from giving it an expected value of £1.67 in free chips each week. But this week there are only five options giving it an EV of £2. It may not be huge but it all adds up and it's probably worth £80-£100 over the course of a year. And if that is semi-sticky it can turn into a lot more!

The optimal way to play those semi-sticky bonus, from a mathematical standpoint, is to throw the whole bonus amount on one hand and look to double it up. The withdraw the winnings and repeat. But that's a lot of effort and can easily result in getting zero return if you lose the first hand. That's not so bad when you have lots of these bonuses in various casinos that you're exploiting as you will make a killing on some and lose on others but it will all come out as a profit in the end. With this one I am taking a more cautious, but still aggressive, approach to getting value out of it. I have made a small profit and put myself in with a chance of making more (from the remaining semi-sticky funds and further bonuses) so I have achieved all I set out to achieve really.

I also ground out the Coral monthly bonus this morning. That's £25 per month for playing £625 and you can do it on blackjack. It took me about an hour and a half - which is about normal for Coral and about half an hour longer than other casinos due to the software. But I took that bonus on top of a profit of £21 from the cards themselves so that was a nice way to set myself up for the rest of the day.

**mathare** · 24th January 2008

I've been too busy the last couple of days to sort out the next batch of stats that were due on Monday/Tuesday. I have those processing in the background as I type. And type I need to as I have quite a lot to get off my chest.

I have hit a truly terrible streak of luck these past few days. I have missed a few selections on the System Banker due to one thing and another. That in itself is no cause for concern - most of the time. Except this time almost every selection I have missed has hacked up and every one I have backed has lost. So the stakes have been increasing and increasing. I started with a £200 bank back in August '07 and that was up around £390 before this recent streak. My starting stake was 65p but today I placed bets of over £60, £70 and even £90 for this system. I generally don't mind a few losers as it gets the stakes up and keeps things interesting but the streak I have caught has been a killer - in the true sense of the word as the software has spat it's dummy out and told me I need to add more to my bank. Yep, I watched the losing run figure creep ever higher and today it hit that magic figure of 16 and that has seen the bank crippled, although not quite bust despite what the software thinks has happened. My bank now stands at £66.55 having dropped by over £290 today! And not only has this wiped out my profit from the System Banker it has wiped out all my profit for January and put me firmly in the red for the month. OUCH!

Now don't get me wrong - I'm not saying the System Banker doesn't work. It does and I have seen it with my own two eyes (and my own money). I have been unlucky and that's all it is. There were winners today but I missed them due to various work issues. Had I caught those I wouldn't be sat here with a bank in pieces; I would be sat here with a wry smile thinking that the losing run got hairy but the system came good in the end as I knew it would. But I didn't catch them so there is no such smile but nor are there any tears or anything like that. Instead there is a sense of puzzlement as the future for me is not clear.

I like to control the staking of the systems I am following. That way I have complete responsibility for when stakes increase/decrease, when I apply bank barriers etc. The System Banker software applies its own staking plan and while it has made good profits in only a few months it has also shown me how scary loss chasing can be. I am not in full control of this staking. I don't decide when to change the stakes or when to call on the safety offered by a bank barrier. Which means I don't know what I should do now as I don't have all the facts. I am in a situation that is not entirely of my making if you like, and I don't know the best way out. I see my options as:
(i) Add more money to the bank (or reset the bank figure) and continue the system.
(ii) Start again from scratch with a completely new bank and a new history file in the software
(iii) Ditch System Banker and never go near it again.

Option (i) means I am on the same streak as I am currently and my next stake is going to be large again. I ended the day with over £60 on a 9/2 shot. If the first selection I am able to back tomorrow is odds-on then my stake will be huge. If it is anything less than 11/2 or so I will be dumping my whole remaining bank on it and we know how bad it is to put all your bank on one bet. Anything I add to the bank could last no more than 2 or 3 bets regardless of how much I add.

Option (ii) means I sacrifice the funds I have already lost and start again. If the next horse wins then I will have staked about 40p on it and will maybe make a profit of a quid or so. I am rebuilding a bank from the very beginning again when I could have a bank that is double the size of this new one because I have clawed back all my losses.

Option (iii) means I am a chicken and a coward and am cutting off my nose to spite my face. I know this system works and to give in to a freak run of bad luck would be stupid.

So it's a choice between (i) and (ii). Which pretty much means I need to think about whether or not I think the next horse will win. Suppose it's a 2/1 shot - I need to put on over £170 to win back my losses. Now suppose it gets turned over in the same way the last 16 I have backed have. My losses now run close to £500 (they are already nearly £330 on this losing streak). A selection at evens needs another £500 dumping on it just to put me back where I was a few days ago. I think it is obvious that further losers on this streak spell very bad news. And chasing losses in this manner would be foolish.

That means I just go with option (ii) and start again - right? I don't know. Honestly, I really don't know. A large part of me is saying gamble and go for one or two more in this run. The system hasn't changed, it isn't broken and it will hit you with a winner soon enough and then you're back on track. And a not insignificant part of me is reciting golden rules of bankroll management and lessons from gambling 101.

So what am I going to do? Probably sleep on it and see how it feels in the morning. See what the cold light of day offers up and also see how it mulls over in my head once some of the emotional fire has died down.

Bet-IE dutching had it's first losing race of the year this week too. It's not been a great few days for me...

**mathare** · 24th January 2008

Oh yeah, and here's those stats I mentioned...

BB stats for 21/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>652</td><td align=center>244</td><td align=center>88</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>72</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.88%</td><td align=center>67.21%</td><td align=center>81.82%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>1.71</td><td align=center>57.12</td><td align=center>5.61</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.14%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>111</td><td align=center>496</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>179</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>29.73%</td><td align=center>36.09%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>1.49</td><td align=center>104.98</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>5.92%</td><td align=center>9.70%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>15</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>137</td><td align=center>906</td><td align=center>787</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>168</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>44</td><td align=center>326</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>63</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>57.14%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>32.12%</td><td align=center>35.98%</td><td align=center>37.48%</td><td align=center>36.36%</td><td align=center>37.50%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>-2.43</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-1.00</td><td align=center>84.56</td><td align=center>12.45</td><td align=center>-0.90</td><td align=center>-6.31</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>4.32%</td><td align=center>29.49%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>1.21%</td><td align=center>0.36%</td><td align=center>0.09%</td><td align=center>-4.95%</td><td align=center>-0.03%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>305</td><td align=center>1315</td><td align=center>482</td><td align=center>79</td><td align=center>256</td><td align=center>26</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>249</td><td align=center>1134</td><td align=center>417</td><td align=center>65</td><td align=center>217</td><td align=center>22</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.64%</td><td align=center>86.24%</td><td align=center>86.51%</td><td align=center>82.28%</td><td align=center>84.77%</td><td align=center>84.62%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.23</td><td align=center>5.54</td><td align=center>9.69</td><td align=center>-1.02</td><td align=center>0.51</td><td align=center>-0.45</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.69%</td><td align=center>13.08%</td><td align=center>10.68%</td><td align=center>14.33%</td><td align=center>5.60%</td><td align=center>-0.36%</td></tr></table>

**mathare** · 25th January 2008

I have a few things to tell you about this evening, namely

the Betfair workshop I attended
System Banker staking
miscellaneous other random stuff

I may not get them all in just yet as my tea ought to be ready reasonably soon but let's see how far we get shall we?

We'll start with the Betfair workshop as that happened way back on Monday evening and it's now Friday evening. I meant to tell you about that before now but I kept forgetting.

I consider myself quite an advanced exchange user but no means an expert. I know Betfair well enough to quickly and easily navigate round it. I understand what the screen is telling me, what the various graphs and figures mean etc. I know how to back and lay and also how to trade, dutch etc. That said I don't use the exchange website very often - partly because I shifted a lot of my backing and laying to Betdaq for commission reasons and partly because I use API tools for trading and dutching that mean I rarely have to actually log on direct to the Betfair website. Knowing what I know and having the experience of the site that I have put me ahead of almost everyone else in the room - which was nice :)

Anyway, let me just set the scene for you a bit better. The event was held in one of the training room/classrooms in the Betfair offices in Hammersmith - and quite swanky offices they are too. Let's just say I have seen where a lot of the commission goes! There were probably a dozen or so of us on the course with a range of interests from football trading, several in-running bettors, a couple of casual punters and a lass who'd joined Betfair a few weeks back and still had no idea what it was all about! There was a big bucket of beer and soft drinks on ice at the back of the room plus sandwiches, crisps, nuts - that sort of thing. We were sat in pairs with a laptop between us set up to run Betfair logged in to a demo account but they were using real money (£50 per account).

We started with the basics of decimal odds, backing and laying. Who does what; which button to click; how much money each party in the bet can win and lose etc. We discussed market trends focusing on the match odds and under/over 2.5 goals markets from the Liverpool-Aston Villa match playing out that evening. We talked about how the markets would change during a game and then got let loose on the accounts. We could use up to half our bank to trade on the match and try to make a profit.

We'd been shown how to manually quickly green up - something that I found interesting as I like to know how to do things from first principles in case the software I use to do these things isn't available for whatever reason. For those of you who don't know how to do this let's work an example...

Suppose you have backed a runner at evens (2.0) for £20. the payout (including your stake) from this bet would be £40 if the runner wins. Now suppose the price contracts to 1.81 - how much do you lay to equalise your profit on both runners?

I used to do this by clicking to lay the same runner and knowing my stake needed to be greater than £20 (else I'd just cancel out the back stake leaving me a free bet rather than an equal profit) I would try say £22 - without submitting the bet - and see what that did to my position in the market by displaying my P&L including the 'what if' figure. I then tweak the stake as necessary.

But there is a simpler way of doing this. Set the lay up with the relevant odds, 1.81 in this case, and click the Payout text link at the top right of the lay bet box. In the ensuing dialog box enter the payout from your back bet (£40 here) and click OK. This sets your lay stake to equalise the profit on the runners. It just so happens that it is £22.09 in this case so you make £2.09 regardless of who wins. Easy eh? And that works in any market - as long as you're not displaying your P&L figures net of commission as that will screw things up a bit.

Anyway, back to trading on the football. I was sat with a lady whose primary gamble was poker and she didn't really know much about trading. So I showed here a few trades on the under/overs and we set up a position whereby we'd win around 50p regardless of the number of goals in the game (which I was watching on the big screen at the front of the room at the same time). But we also discussed poker and Las Vegas a lot so even though it was supposed to be a competition to see who could make the most on the match we had done a couple of trades and given up.

After the trading challenge was over we continued to explore Betfair and looked at some of the Betfair Labs stuff, which was interesting, although I had seen a lot of it before. I have to admit that a neural network Premiership football prediction tool (Victor the Predictor) in there looks worthy of further investigation. And a guy I was talking to said he was quite impressed by Soccer Mystic from the people behind Bet Angel. Soccer Mystic is something I have been trying to find time to trial after finding out about it a week or two back.

We finished the evening with a look at Betfair SP and also by playing bookmaker and laying all three runners in the next goal market for the football. The key there is to start with the outsider and work in towards the favourite. Again, it was interesting to see this from first principles rather than being done in software such as Bet Trader Pro which is how I would do it (were I ever to think of doing it).

At the end of it all we got Betfair for Dummies and I had had a few beers on Betfair and picked up a few tips. I'd networked as much as it was worth it without picking up any staggering connections or links I must admit. And then I managed to secure a lift part of the way home with the guy running the course if I helped him clear the laptops etc away, which I did. I also got a couple of Betfair freebies (a hat and a jacket) out of it too. So all in all worth going although I didn't learn a huge amount.

And I was right - I wouldn't get all this in before my tea. In fact I had to stop about two-thirds of the way through the above and go eat it. But that's all out the way now and I can update this gamblog all I like. That said, I think that's enough for one post so let's close this one off and come back again shortly with the System Banker staking stuff.

**mathare** · 25th January 2008

Before I get into the System Banker stuff it has just occurred to me that I missed a few bits from the Betfair workshop. :splapme

Are you one of those people who uses the Betfair website and hammers the refresh button on the market? If so, you should look at the Gruss software website as that offers an add-in/toolbar for Internet Explorer that allows you to set the refresh rate for a Betfair market. Could be handy. I won't post a link though, mainly because I use API software that gives me great refresh rates so I don't care too much about the website refresh rate.

The other thing I forgot to mention is that the Betfair Solutions tab includes a lot of (all?) the historical data from Betfair markets. This needs to loaded into Access or something as it is too big for Excel to cope with but it can be used for good data mining if you want to know how many horses go less than 1.10 at Southwell and lose or whatever. Getting my hands on this data and doing something with it has been added to my mental long-term 'to do' list although in fairness it ought to be bumped on to my very long term list as I have no idea when I'd even get round to thinking about what to do with that volume of data when I have so much other stuff on my plate at the minute.

**scaaty** · 25th January 2008

Originally Posted by mathare

But there is a simpler way of doing this. Set the lay up with the relevant odds, 1.81 in this case, and click the Payout text link at the top right of the lay bet box. In the ensuing dialog box enter the payout from your back bet (£40 here) and click OK. This sets your lay stake to equalise the profit on the runners. It just so happens that it is £22.09 in this case so you make £2.09 regardless of who wins. Easy eh? And that works in any market - as long as you're not displaying your P&L figures net of commission as that will screw things up a bit.

That's a really useful bit of info, thanks !

**mathare** · 25th January 2008

Originally Posted by scaaty

That's a really useful bit of info, thanks !

No worries. I was doing it on a market as I was typing that up this evening just to remind myself how to do it and how simple it was. I was using the same prices as in my example but without submitting the bets, just using the 'what if' figures. Definitely a trick worth knowing I think.

**mathare** · 25th January 2008

Right, System Banker staking then.

First off I want to say that I have used TSM here and I am not going into detail about the hows and whys of what I have done using that software. Nor am I going to discuss any of the staking plans in any detail. If you want details of any of the staking plans or the software itself I'm sure you can find out what you need on the web somewhere.

So the big question I had was what to do with the System Banker. I had narrowed it down to several options, which look something like:
(i) Carry on using the software with the same data files and boost the bank to try and recover from the losing streak
(ii) Start again with a brand new history file in the software and a new bank
(iii) Start following the selections outside the staking plan imposed by the software

Quite frankly option (i) is gambling of the highest order and is more than just a little scary as it is likely to involve bets of over £100 and perhaps several such bets of that magnitude will be required before I recover the losses and set the inevitable bank high. I have the money in the bank (real, not betting bank) but I'm not sure I am cut out for that sort of risk so this option is unlikely.

Option (ii) is quite attractive. I liked using the software and liked it chasing my losses in a way. I loved the fact that each winner meant a new bank high, even if it was only a few pence above the previous peak. It really felt like I was getting somewhere. I also know that it is purely and completely misfortune on my part that has resulted in me being in the situation I am now so I have absolutely no qualms about restarting the software despite this 'failure'.

But it was option (iii) that was the big unknown for me and the one I wanted to look at most. So I copied all the System Banker bets out of my spreadsheet, reformatted it slightly and threw it as TSM. What I found was most enlightening...

First off it told me a few things I already knew. My LLR was 16 (oh yes, I really knew that one!), my LWR was 7 (knew that also) and I was running at an SR just under 36% (yep, my spreadsheet told me that too). No news so far. I ran a 3% of bank staking plan across the data as that seems to be the done thing to do on these selections. And using my prices, which have shown an overlay/overbet of around 10% compared to SP, I have a losing system with the final/current bank standing at roughly £55. Now, I know that even using the System Banker software I have a losing system - my bank has gone from £200 at the start to £66.55 at this point - so at this stage of the staking review I wasn't too concerned. I tried switching ratcheting on - BAD. The bank busts about 80% of the way through. Oops. OK, ratcheting back off and tinker with the percentages a little to see what happens - pretty much what you'd expect really, a profit/safety trade-off.

I played with other staking plans viewing the results graphically and also looking at the actual figures at key points along the way. I played with various staking plan settings myself and also tried the automatic optimisation of the plans. Nothing was showing a profit really. The Parlay plan could be made to show a 7.5% ROI without busting the bank but I really don't think that is a good plan to rely on. The Pro plan had a positive ROI but busts the bank about halfway through the selections so that's not exactly suitable.

I then figured I was being unfair with the staking comparisons against the System Banker software and decided to cut out completely the last losing run of 16, leaving all the other data unchanged. The thinking here is that at this point I was at the last bank high (£393.65) so I could compare the other staking plans to that figure and see if they could come close. Hmmm. Percentage staking has a -4.00% ROI. There are a few plans that show a profit though (Parlay, Pro, Secure, Fixed and Bookies Bank). Of these only Pro and Bookies Bank exceed the profits shown by the System Banker software (when the default staking plan settings are applied) but let's optimise all the plans and see what happens...Now a few more plans show a profit but still only the crazy D'Alembert, Pro, Labouchere and Bookies Bank plans show profits that exceed that offered by the System Banker software. I then went in and capped my stakes in TSM to £100 to see what effect that had. Thankfully it didn't have much effect as I had optimised with £100 as my max stake anyway.

The next task was to look at the confidence tests for these plans. D'Alembert was showing better than expected results which basically meant the profit was larger than expected and were I continue along those lines I could reasonably expect things to slow down, or perhaps plummet. Everything else was within the bounds of the expected results. Something I should have thought of earlier but had forgotten about till this point was to check whether any of the staking plans I had shortlisted actually bust my bank before the end point. Yep, Pro goes pop on bet 261 (out of 489), Labouchere busts on 17 and the Bookies Bank goes one bet later. That's them ruled out then. Which I think leaves me with the D'Alembert plan.

The D'Alembert plan is not at all one of my favourites but it shows significant profits in this case, £1339.39 in fact with a ROI of 5.26%. Worringly the bank's low point is 3% of the peak and the longest winning run (13) costs 38.49% of the bank. I need to compare that ROI to that of the System Banker software though, and calculating that over the same data shows it to be 21.28%. Hmmm, not really a close thing is it? Do I want over 20% return with the System Banker plan or a quarter of that with a crazy staking plan?

And so round about now my mind was made up. Following the System Banker selections outside the software was not really a great option. Percentage staking wasn't working based on my data and the D'Alembert plan had huge stakes (the average was over £40 compared to £1.86 for the System Banker software) and similar sized risks. So option (ii) has won out and I start the System Banker from scratch again, at least in terms of the history file used by the software. I will keep the existing data in my spreadsheet and note that I have just reset the bank. Not quite sure how I get my own spreadsheet to handle this but I'll work something out.

So there you have it. I like to think of this as a fairly well thought out approach taken in the cold light of day rather than an emotional reaction to busting the bank. I certainly feel happy with the decision I have made.

**mathare** · 26th January 2008

Just been working through some of my stats again and crunching more numbers. Well, letting Excel do the donkey work but the end result is the same. It seems that Thursday was my fourth worst day of betting ever in terms of profit/loss in cash terms. It doesn't register in my top ten losing days when measured in BB though.

What's strangest of all though is that Thursday didn't feel that bad in mental and emotional terms. I have had days where I am getting caned on every bet I place across all systems and banks are dropping across the board and days like that feel much, much worse than Thursday did. I was concerned about the size of the stakes on Thursday but at the end of the day I got 7 losers on the System Banker and that in itself isn't indicative of one of my worst ever days gambling. Because the losses were confined to one system the overall effect on me was reduced. We've all had days were nothing goes our way and we know how that can get you down. This wasn't one of those days. I had bets coming in on other systems, lays doing well etc. It was just System Banker leaking cash.

Funny how you can view your fourth worst day as being not that bad really isn't it?

**mathare** · 26th January 2008

Last summer I switched over to Betdaq to take advantage of their offer on commission rates. Basically they were trying to poach Betfair customers by offering to guarantee better commission rates for them at Betdaq. The fact that they started this offer around the time that Betfair changed their commission rate structure shafting a few people along the way was surely coincidental. Anyway, I switched camps and in doing so traded in my 4.90% Betfair commission rate for 3.75% at Betdaq, guaranteed till the end of the year. I did manage to get it down further, to 3.50% for a decent chunk of that period too. But as 2008 started my guaranee expired and my commission rate jumped to 4.25%. Since then it has crept up another step to 4.50% as my turnover is much lower than it was last summer/autumn. I am also closing in on the next reduction point which will see me go to a rate of 4.75% with Betdaq but should be a few weeks or more off that yet, thankfully.

This all set me thinking though - which exchange offers the best commission rates for someone like me? My spreadsheet shows that for one reason and another I have struggled to profit on Betfair. A lot of the systems I have ditched were on Betfair so that account has seen more than its fair share of losses. While my Betdaq account has seen healthy growth and shows a very nice profit. On the face of it then it seems like I should be using Betdaq regardless of what this commission comparison shows as I have a good record with Betdaq. But let's just check the commission facts anyway shall we?

Betfair award commission points at the rate of 1 point every 10p of commission (or implied commission) paid. Their first (highest) level of commission is a 0% discount on the market base rate (MBR) which I'm going to call 5% as I want to deal with horse racing markets here. This level applies until you have 1000 commission points when your discount rate is 2% giving you a commission of 4.90%. In order to get this drop in commission you need to have got 1000 points which as they are awarded at a rate of 1 per 10p of commission means you have to have paid £100 in commission (or implied commission). This commission would have been at 5% of your profit/losses which means you must have won/lost £2000 to this point. Your next drop in commission comes at 2500 points when your rate drops to 4.80%. So that's another 1500 points required so a further £150 of commission to be paid. This time your rate was 4.90% when you paid this commission so you need to have won or lost a futher £3061.22. That's a total win/loss of £5061.22 in order to get your commission down to 4.80%. We can apply the same maths to each of the other commission rates available at Betfair and work out the total profit/loss required to reach that commission rate, and in fact I have done just that. The following table shows the minimum and maximum number of points for each level, the corresponding commission rate and the total profit/loss required to reach that level.
<table><tr><td>Min</td><td>Max</td><td>Rate</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>0</td><td>999</td><td>5.00%</td><td>£0.00</td></tr><tr><td>1000</td><td>2499</td><td>4.90%</td><td>£2,000.00</td></tr><tr><td>2500</td><td>3999</td><td>4.80%</td><td>£5,061.22</td></tr><tr><td>4000</td><td>5499</td><td>4.70%</td><td>£8,186.22</td></tr><tr><td>5500</td><td>6999</td><td>4.60%</td><td>£11,377.71</td></tr><tr><td>7000</td><td>8999</td><td>4.50%</td><td>£14,638.58</td></tr><tr><td>9000</td><td>10999</td><td>4.40%</td><td>£19,083.03</td></tr><tr><td>11000</td><td>12999</td><td>4.30%</td><td>£23,628.48</td></tr><tr><td>13000</td><td>14999</td><td>4.20%</td><td>£28,279.65</td></tr><tr><td>15000</td><td>16999</td><td>4.10%</td><td>£33,041.55</td></tr><tr><td>17000</td><td>18999</td><td>4.00%</td><td>£37,919.60</td></tr><tr><td>19000</td><td>20999</td><td>3.90%</td><td>£42,919.60</td></tr><tr><td>21000</td><td>22999</td><td>3.80%</td><td>£48,047.80</td></tr><tr><td>23000</td><td>25999</td><td>3.70%</td><td>£53,310.96</td></tr><tr><td>26000</td><td>28999</td><td>3.60%</td><td>£61,419.07</td></tr><tr><td>29000</td><td>31999</td><td>3.50%</td><td>£69,752.40</td></tr><tr><td>32000</td><td>35999</td><td>3.40%</td><td>£78,323.83</td></tr><tr><td>36000</td><td>39999</td><td>3.30%</td><td>£90,088.54</td></tr><tr><td>40000</td><td>43999</td><td>3.20%</td><td>£102,209.75</td></tr><tr><td>44000</td><td>48999</td><td>3.10%</td><td>£114,709.75</td></tr><tr><td>49000</td><td>54999</td><td>3.00%</td><td>£130,838.78</td></tr><tr><td>55000</td><td>60999</td><td>2.90%</td><td>£150,838.78</td></tr><tr><td>61000</td><td>66999</td><td>2.80%</td><td>£171,528.44</td></tr><tr><td>67000</td><td>72999</td><td>2.70%</td><td>£192,957.01</td></tr><tr><td>73000</td><td>79999</td><td>2.60%</td><td>£215,179.23</td></tr><tr><td>80000</td><td>87999</td><td>2.50%</td><td>£242,102.31</td></tr><tr><td>88000</td><td>95999</td><td>2.40%</td><td>£274,102.31</td></tr><tr><td>96000</td><td>107999</td><td>2.30%</td><td>£307,435.64</td></tr><tr><td>108000</td><td>125999</td><td>2.20%</td><td>£359,609.55</td></tr><tr><td>126000</td><td>149999</td><td>2.10%</td><td>£441,427.74</td></tr><tr><td>150000</td><td></td><td>2.00%</td><td>£555,713.45</td></tr></table>

Betdaq award 1 commission point for each £25 won or lost on a market. Their highest level of commission is 5% which applies until you have accumulated 50 commission points, which a quick bit of maths shows happens when you win/lose £1250. At this point your commission drops to 4.75%. You stay at that rate until you have 200 points, i.e. a further 150 points or another £3750 of wins/losses for a total of £5000. Because the rate at which points are awarded is constant and independent of the commission rate the maths for Betdaq is much simpler. To get the total profit/loss required for each level we just need to multiply the number of points required to reach that level by £25. The table below shows the number of points required for each level and the total profit/loss to reach that rate.<table><tr><td>Min</td><td>Max</td><td>Rate</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>0</td><td>49</td><td>5.00%</td><td>£0.00</td></tr><tr><td>50</td><td>199</td><td>4.75%</td><td>£1,250.00</td></tr><tr><td>200</td><td>374</td><td>4.50%</td><td>£5,000.00</td></tr><tr><td>375</td><td>574</td><td>4.25%</td><td>£9,375.00</td></tr><tr><td>575</td><td>849</td><td>4.00%</td><td>£14,375.00</td></tr><tr><td>850</td><td>1199</td><td>3.75%</td><td>£21,250.00</td></tr><tr><td>1200</td><td>1699</td><td>3.50%</td><td>£30,000.00</td></tr><tr><td>1700</td><td>2499</td><td>3.25%</td><td>£42,500.00</td></tr><tr><td>2500</td><td>3499</td><td>3.00%</td><td>£62,500.00</td></tr><tr><td>3500</td><td>5249</td><td>2.75%</td><td>£87,500.00</td></tr><tr><td>5250</td><td>7349</td><td>2.50%</td><td>£131,250.00</td></tr><tr><td>7350</td><td>10749</td><td>2.25%</td><td>£183,750.00</td></tr><tr><td>10750</td><td></td><td>2.00%</td><td>£268,750.00</td></tr></table>

The granularity of the Betfair commission rate is finer. That is there are more steps between 5% and 2% so you rate decreases more gentler than it does with Betdaq. That means we can't directly compare commission rates for the two exchanges at every point, but we can compare them at 4.50%, 4%, 3.50% etc. We can also compare how much it takes to get off the first level and get some sort of reward for our business.

As you can see from the tables above our commission rate at Befair drops when we have put £2000 of business their way but it takes only £1250 for Betdaq to reduce our rates. And when Betdaq do reduce them, they reduce them more than Betfair do. And it's the same story of Betdaq being more rewarding at each comparison point all the way to the end where £268,750 is needed to get 2% commission from Betdaq whereas £555.713.45 is needed for the same Betfair rate.

Of course this all assumes that our rate can never decrease, which is simply not true. Both Betdaq and Betfair take 15% of our points back off us each week. If you stake the same amount each week then your commission level will stabilise at a set point. And how many of us stake exactly the same each week? But does that matter? Not really. The important thing here is that the fact that both firms have the same weekly deduction.

Suppose you staked £5000 exactly each and every week for a year - which firm give you the best commmission? At the end of your first week you have staked £5000 but your exchange have taken back 15% of your points meaning your equivalent stake at that point is £4250. Betfair would have you on 4.90% commission at that point with Betdaq putting you on 4.75%. Already Betdaq are offering you a better deal. After 26 weeks, at the halfway point, your stake after weekly deductions of 15% is £27,919.15. This is not quite sufficient for the 4.20% rate at Betfair so you'd be on 4.30% with them but on 3.75% with Betdaq. And at the end of the year when your staking figure has settled down to £28327.28 then Betfair are charging you 4.20% (just) and you're on 3.75% with Betdaq still.

Five grand a week is a lot though so suppose you only staked £500 a week, what then? You'd be on 4.75% with Betdaq and 4.90% with Betfair. Betdaq always seems to win out in this comparison.

What of liquidity? It is recognised that Betdaq has a lower liquidity than Betfair so are you sacrificing commission for a better liquidity and better prices? Betdaq's liquidity in the pre-race markets is about half to two-thirds that of Betfair for UK racing. Away from that, and in-running, the markets aren't so competitive but if you're using Betdaq for horse racing then liquidity shouldn't really be an issue. And my figures have shown my overlays haven't increased by switching from Betfair to Betdaq so I have no qualms about using Betdaq.

So there you have it - if you want a better commission rate then switch to Betdaq, whether or not they are offering to guarantee your rate.

**imranali** · 26th January 2008

superb read, very enlightening! am considering the switch now, but two hurdles remain... the site for betdaq seems a tad slow, and of now i am not too aware my favorite bots click with betdaq seamlessly. Am using oddzbreaker, which i vote as the best (among ones which i could afford) of course i would love to trial bet angel pro. Bet trader pro is buggy and SLOW.

thx mathare for the read.

**mathare** · 27th January 2008

Serious question - am I cursed? It certainly feels like it.

Many gamblers talk of bad losing streaks but of those most are just tricks of the mind rather than backed up with hard facts. Poker players talk of running bad, when they can't win a pot regardless of the cards they hold, the bets they make or the players they face. I am currently experiencing a stinker of a losing streak and have the evidence to back up this claim.

Let me just say that overall I am running pretty well. My SR (53.83%) is about right for the balance of bets I have and I have sneaked a small profit so far this month but it's the System Banker that is biting again. Remember that losing run of 16 I had that 'bust' the bank? Well I skipped Friday, reset everything on Saturday and started again. I backed 7 horses under this system yesterday and they all lost. I missed one that I can recall, Morbick in the 9.20 at Wolverhampton as I was sat watching a film by then having switched the PC off for the day. Of course that one went and won didn't it? So I carried on this afternoon on a losing streak of 7 which I promptly extended to 10 with 3 more losers today. Unbelievable!

Luck is supposed to even out in the long run meaning that for every winning selection I miss there should be a losing selection (give or take, with a few tweaks for the SR not being exactly 50%). So why am I catching all the losers and missing every winner at the minute? My losing streak is currently 26, split across two separate banks. 26! And there have been winners since that run started but I haven't caught a single one of them. If anyone has a better bad luck story I'd like to hear it...

**mathare** · 29th January 2008

Good news - I'm not cursed!

I was honestly starting to wonder if I was genuinely cursed after French Saluaie was turned over as a heavy odd-on favourite at Ludlow yesterday. Fortunately Wynberg romped home a little later at Kempton (after winning a few days earlier for me on other systems) and the spell was broken. 27 losers in a row before the winner came and boy was I glad to see that one win! Since then I have had three more winners and only four more losers for a much nicer balance. Still, we all need a bit of excitement in our lives now and then don't we? :)

What else have I got to tell you? I have spent quite a bit of time recently updating and improving my betting records spreadsheet. I decided the time had come to keep a proper track of my football betting so I have reorganised all of that and updated all the macros that used it. I have also decided to start recording the sport for each of the bets I tag as 'miscellaneous'. It has covered bets on darts, tennis, cricket, formula 1 and novelty events such as Pop Idol in the past. None of those deserve their own sheet in the records or tracking separately so I just bundled it all up under miscellaneous a while back. But I thought I should actually break it down a little in case I wanted to track these things separately in the future. I also made it easier to track my commission rates for certain bets that didn't previously have this information recorded. It just makes things a little more accurate and easier to maintain in the future. I am pretty sure I am getting closer to having my spreadsheet the way I want it now but I'm not sure I will ever stop tinkering with it.

This has just reminded me that I ought to make some time in my tinkering for the spreadsheet Monty sent me about a month ago to look at. Oops.

My gambling portfolio for this year seems to be going along alright, which is always pleasing. So far this month has seen 14 banks reach a new high and 11 reach a record low. Some banks have reach record highs and lows in the same month, but that's expected when you start a new bank. For example both Double Top and Running for Profit had slighty shaky starts to the year and dipped a little in the opening week of the month but those two banks are now very nicely in profit, by 34% and 46% respectively. My Bet-IE dutching bank is also on the rise, which I am delighted about. Adding some code in to my spreadsheet to open Bet-IE when the spreadsheet opens has made it much easier for me to build Bet-IE into my routine more and my bank for that reached a new high today. My NHPM bank is also climbing nicely so it's not just the backs that are doing the business.

I'll tell you what, rather than me just spouting words at you and as it is that time let me give you a stats update so you can see for yourself the figures....

BB stats for 28/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>655</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>91</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>75</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.86%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>82.42%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.21</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>6.76</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.05%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>116</td><td align=center>15</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>35</td><td align=center>2</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.17%</td><td align=center>13.33%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>0.78</td><td align=center>-8.53</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.64%</td><td align=center>5.65%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>139</td><td align=center>919</td><td align=center>789</td><td align=center>30</td><td align=center>171</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>45</td><td align=center>330</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>12</td><td align=center>65</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>37.50%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>32.37%</td><td align=center>35.91%</td><td align=center>37.39%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td><td align=center>38.01%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.08</td><td align=center>-3.43</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-1.09</td><td align=center>91.25</td><td align=center>10.45</td><td align=center>1.07</td><td align=center>2.19</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>8.67%</td><td align=center>27.05%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>1.34%</td><td align=center>0.46%</td><td align=center>0.08%</td><td align=center>-0.30%</td><td align=center>-0.46%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>309</td><td align=center>1317</td><td align=center>490</td><td align=center>86</td><td align=center>257</td><td align=center>30</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>252</td><td align=center>1135</td><td align=center>425</td><td align=center>71</td><td align=center>218</td><td align=center>26</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.55%</td><td align=center>86.18%</td><td align=center>86.73%</td><td align=center>82.56%</td><td align=center>84.82%</td><td align=center>86.67%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.54</td><td align=center>4.88</td><td align=center>10.46</td><td align=center>-0.93</td><td align=center>0.61</td><td align=center>-0.07</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.56%</td><td align=center>13.00%</td><td align=center>10.50%</td><td align=center>12.47%</td><td align=center>5.63%</td><td align=center>0.83%</td></tr></table>

**AngieS** · 30th January 2008

Hi Matt,

Went to betfair school on the tues, looked for your name when I had to sign in but it was not there, then again neither was mine, had to wait untill my friend went upstairs in those nice glass lifts and get one of the guys out to let me in.

Like you lots I already knew but as you have pointed out there were a few bits I didn't.

We had to trade on the Arsenal match and they scored very soon after the match had started most of the people there lost there £50 but at the end we managed a whole £2 something profit.

So on the whole I think it was worth it had freebie drinks, eats and free bets.

Not on the forum very much these days as I am working as a stewardess in my local social club which involves shift work and I can't follow the racing as much as I would like to. Oh well needs must

Regards,

Angie.

**mathare** · 2nd February 2008

A rather disappointing end to the first month of a new year for me. I'd already seen the first System Banker bank go down in flames and had recovered to be showing a small profit for the month overall before I had a bad run on the Bet-IE dutching. Wednesday had started well with 3 winning dutches early on putting me nearly a full BB up. The I hit a loser, followed by another on the evening racing and yet another on the next evening's racing to give me 3 losers in a row and set a new LLR for my dutching. Obviously that has resulted in my stakes being trimmed a little and it pushed me back into the red for January.

The start of February was a different story though with a nice 9/1 winner (Ask Jenny) on the Flat Monthly system and the NHPM lays reaching another staking increase trigger. So it is with renewed enthusiasm that I sit here ready for whatever Saturday's horses may throw my way.

**mathare** · 2nd February 2008

Figured I may as well round January off with a quick summary of highs, lows and a new set of stats.

The following banks all reached a new record high point in January:
System Banker (second time round), Good'un, ABS, Running for Profit, Double Top, NH Media F/c, NH Monthly, Jumping for Profit, NHPM lays, Easy Money lays, Trades, Bet-IE dutching, Football, System Banker (first time round).

The following banks all reached a new record low in January:
System Banker (second time round), Good'un, Flat Monthly, Running for Profit, Double Top, NH Monthly, Jumping for Profit, Easy Money lays, Video Poker, Spreads, System Banker (first time round).

As you can see quite a few banks appear in both lists. That's because many of my banks are currently immature having just started this year and there is always a bit of fluctuation around the starting value before things settle down and the bank starts to climb properly.

Finally I wanted to post my stats up to the end of January, just for completeness really. I plan to do this at the end of every month as well as posting the stats on a weekly basis. I should really do some more analysis of the numbers rather then just dumping them in here but I know how my betting is going anyway so if anyone else is interested the stats are here for them to compare to last week or whenever and you can do your own analysis of them.
BB stats for 31/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>658</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>99</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>80</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.69%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>80.81%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.79</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>5.06</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.15%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>117</td><td align=center>39</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.77%</td><td align=center>28.21%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>3.03</td><td align=center>-4.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.68%</td><td align=center>5.52%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>123</td><td align=center>139</td><td align=center>928</td><td align=center>790</td><td align=center>42</td><td align=center>175</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>45</td><td align=center>333</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>67</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>33.33%</td><td align=center>30.08%</td><td align=center>32.37%</td><td align=center>35.88%</td><td align=center>37.34%</td><td align=center>38.10%</td><td align=center>38.29%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.08</td><td align=center>-5.43</td><td align=center>0.21</td><td align=center>-1.09</td><td align=center>92.49</td><td align=center>9.45</td><td align=center>-2.05</td><td align=center>2.47</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>8.67%</td><td align=center>13.51%</td><td align=center>0.06%</td><td align=center>1.34%</td><td align=center>0.52%</td><td align=center>0.10%</td><td align=center>3.37%</td><td align=center>-0.73%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>310</td><td align=center>1319</td><td align=center>495</td><td align=center>86</td><td align=center>259</td><td align=center>34</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>253</td><td align=center>1137</td><td align=center>430</td><td align=center>71</td><td align=center>219</td><td align=center>29</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.61%</td><td align=center>86.20%</td><td align=center>86.87%</td><td align=center>82.56%</td><td align=center>84.56%</td><td align=center>85.29%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.44</td><td align=center>5.07</td><td align=center>10.93</td><td align=center>-0.93</td><td align=center>0.31</td><td align=center>-0.27</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.68%</td><td align=center>13.02%</td><td align=center>10.56%</td><td align=center>12.47%</td><td align=center>5.72%</td><td align=center>2.02%</td></tr></table>

**mathare** · 5th February 2008

Quite a few things to tell you tonight. There's no easy way of saying the first of them though so I am just going to blurt it out and be done with it. I have bust another System Banker bank. There, I've said it.

Yes, you did read that right. For the second time in as many weeks I have bust the bank for the System Banker. Last time this happened I restarted it but this time I am through with it. The recent results for short-priced horses has really been my undoing and this time a run of 10 losers was enough to kill it off.

I was coming into today off the back of a losing run of 7. The run had started with a 34p bet on a 4/1 shot. This was followed by £1.23 on a 4/7 loser. Another 43p went on a 9/2 horse that also lost. Next came £2.87 on a 5/6 chance that again didn't win. A longer one now with 67p on a 6/1 shot. Lost. Two consecutive selections at 15/8 next in the run with £2.44 and £6.92 on them respectively. And that takes us to this afternoon where we lumped £12.73 on a horse that went off at 11/10, and lost. Another odds-on shot now, this one at 8/13 with £40.27 riding on it. Nope, that one didn't win either. Never mind as we have £65.06 on a 13/8 chance now so surely that one will win. No. Next up was another short-priced runner that wanted over £200 on it and as the bank was down to a little over £70 at that point I gave up. It lost, incidentally.

And that's were I stand now. Nearly two-thirds of the starting bank has been blown in 10 days with 59% of the starting bank being lost this afternoon in three races. I have decided I can take this no longer. I enjoyed the highs but the lows are killing me. Keith operates a three strike policy but I have decided that for me two strikes is plenty with this one. It has eaten two banks and cost me quite a bit of cash this year so I am through with it.

What else?

Ditching that got me thinking about other systems/methods in my betting portfolio for this year and whether I have got my balance right. Looking at my stats for the A+ bets I am no longer that impressed by them. I have tried running the data through TSM and that has been able to improve the profits somewhat but the staking plan included elements of loss chasing and I am not sure I fancy that. So I am considering ditching the A+ bets too. I asked myself: are they contributing to the bottom line as I would expect/hope? And the answer is no. It's one of those banks that never seems to get anywhere; never getting very high nor getting too low. So why bother it when the money could be better invested elsewhere? That's my current thinking. The A+ bets are on a grey-list if you like. I may dump them, I may not. The final decision has yet to be made but they are certainly a candidate for being dropped. It's not like I haven't given them a chance - they have been around for 660 bets.

Other than that I think I am satisfied. I am a little annoyed that I am really struggling for a profit this year but given I have lost over £400 on the System Bankers I would have netted over £350 without those so that's a good sign that everything else is looking alright so I can hopefully expect profits to flow over the rest of the year.

One thing I am thinking about is my balance of backs and lays. I currently have 17 backing systems and only 7 lays (I am excluding dutching etc from this count). I perhaps have room for one or two more lay systems in there I feel so I am going to investigating a few of those to see what I can find that I like and that works.

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