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Thread: mathare's Poker Diary

  1. #151

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    27th August 2009 (part two)
    It's been a funny old day, and when I say funny I do of course mean bloody frustrating!

    I've been back on the STTs this afternoon and the one positive I can take is that I have played more of them today than I expected to. I got through 16 this afternoon and another 9 this evening to obviously make 25 on the day and I said I'd like to play 100 a week in a previous diary entry so that target looks fairly easy to hit and even exceed.

    That's close to being the only positive though as things haven't been going that well. The thing is I think I know some of what has been causing today's bad tourney results and it's quite easy to fix. It's me. There, I said it. I haven't been playing well when it comes to the crunch stages towards the end of a tourney. I have been too quick to call an all-in when I have the bigger stack and a marginal hand such as A8, KT etc. You know the sort of hands, the trouble hands. I think KQ will be ahead of his shoving range but he's waited for an Ace so is playing A3o so when the board bricks out he wins with a better kicker. That's happened too often to me tonight. I've also had hands where I have been on a stack of ~10xBB with AJo and shoved only for TT to look me up and I miss all streets. I've had situations like that a few times too. The remedy? Tighten up my all-in calling range massively and watch that all-in raising range too. I'm too quick to shove when stacks get down and I only have a small pocket pair (as I write that I end up with it all in with 99 v ATo in one of the tourneys I am finishing off, fortunately I win). I can fold and still have a stack of say 8xBB which is still playable (to an extent) and can still do some damage. I tend to err, panic isn't quite the right word but I hope you get my drift, and think I need to really start pushing even the smallest of edges (or perceived edges) so as to have a stack that can win the event. It's partly true but I need to survive long enough to make the money first. I read an interesting article on bubble play recently. It said you should play tighter than you might think, especially calling all-ins, because the jump on the pay scale is 20% whereas the jump from third to second is only half that. And that's an interesting point. A $7 profit for third is barely worth fighting for in some respects; it's not going to change anyone's life so people won't tighten up so much that they are scared of not getting at least third place so be careful what hands you're in there with as the average hand is likely to be stronger around the bubble. If I have chips I can play so why risk it all with mariginal hands?

    That said I am getting my money in good (or at least good enough) and hitting more than my fair share of nasty rivers. My last tourney exit came with Qh5h on a flop of 7s-Qs-2h, so top pair with a backdoor flush draw. The turn is 6h to give me that flush draw. The river is 2d and the rest of the money goes in (it has been decent action on all streets thus far, which I am happy with as I have top pair and don't read him as having a better hand). He flips Js-2s for rivered trips. He had that flush draw from the flop, fair enough, but to river that 2...

    So a frustrating day that saw me lose $14 in the afternoon and a further $18 in the evening. Sure, some of that could be turned round by better play of the short stack in the late stages of these tourneys but some of that is also down to awful river cards coming down. I know that's the normal poker player's lament and that some times the river will make rather than break my hand but it just gets to you at times and you need to let off some steam.

    I won't get a full day's play in tomorrow but I hope to get a few hours in early on so would be happy with 10-15 STTs. If I make a profit too I will be over the moon the way things have been going. Can I just not beat PokerStars players? Should I be shopping around elsewhere? Back on Party/Empire perhaps? Something to think about.

    Oh, just quickly before I go - books. I have ordered Phil Shaw's book on winning STTs so should have that in a few days. I have also had another book pile reshuffle and brought Arnold Snyder's Poker Tournament Formula off the book shelf and to the top of the 'to read' pile so I will be digging into that shortly. I am more familiar with Harrington so let's have an alternative approach for a while is what I am thinking.



  2. #152

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    27th August 2009 (part three)
    Just a quickie - I finished 5th nine times today, and fourth a further twice. Had I converted just two of those eleven finishes into 3rd places I'd be in profit for the day (just). I think this shows I am 'panicking' into shoving too early with too weak a hand and can afford to wait a little longer and look to exploit better situations when we are 5- or 6-handed so that I can at least start cashing more often. Then I can worry about converting 3rds into 2nds and then into wins.



  3. #153

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    Morning Mat.

    Just two things I would like to mention.

    1. Don't get too worked up about reading up on different strategies. Believe me, it is very possible to read too much and end up meshing together various strategies that leave your game confused and prone to more errors.

    2. There is a definite pattern of aggression when play becomes 5 or 6 handed as players try to build bigger stacks. Unless you have a monster hand, I would recommend more or less sitting out until there are only 4 left. Obviously, the odd button steal is ok but don't get involved unnecessarily. You mention above that you went out of a tourney with Q5. Please tell me someone limped into your BB.

    Anyway, you know you are good enough so just stick at it.

    I've never understood the attraction of bestiality but looking back over my life it does appear as though I married a cow, lived with a moose, been out with at least 5 dogs and spent a lot of time being chased by whales.


  4. #154

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    Quote Originally Posted by counterfeit View Post
    1. Don't get too worked up about reading up on different strategies. Believe me, it is very possible to read too much and end up meshing together various strategies that leave your game confused and prone to more errors.
    Yeah, I am starting to realise that. OK, I already knew it deep down and I think my natural game is such now that it takes something pretty special or out of left field to change it. I have been playing it so much that I have my own style that is no longer easily changed, I hope. The majority of the books I read are poker books but I don't read them actively in as much as I don't often stop to really think about and digest the material. I read the book cover to cover and some of it will sink in and pop back up at a later date. It's all in there somewhere in my subconscious. The truth is I enjoy reading poker books and like to read different strategies. I won't always apply them but they challenge the way I currently play the game and makes me think about whether my approach is correct and makes me justify my play sometimes.

    Last night I was going to read Snyder's Poker Tournament Formula but a couple of pages in I realised it was the wrong book at the wrong time. What I need was a book that would get me thinking about what I was doing without being condescending or trying to massively change my mindset. It needed to be relevant but fresh. So I turned to a book called Why You Lose at Poker, it spoke to me from the bookshelf and has already got me thinking even though I have read it before and am only a few chapters in so far. I have more confidence going into this morning's session, especially having identified leaks yesterday that I can work on.

    2. There is a definite pattern of aggression when play becomes 5 or 6 handed as players try to build bigger stacks. Unless you have a monster hand, I would recommend more or less sitting out until there are only 4 left. Obviously, the odd button steal is ok but don't get involved unnecessarily.
    That's what I have come to realise when I keep seeing a string of finishes around 5th place in my results. As I said yesterday, I am panicking and shoving too light.

    You mention above that you went out of a tourney with Q5. Please tell me someone limped into your BB.
    I should have made it clear that this was heads up and I was outchipped by 8:5. I limped pre-flop with the blinds at 100/200 and bet half the pot on the flop before being check-raised to 1000. That's a pretty big raise but I had seen him make similar moves on previous hands so I (semi-reluctantly called the raise). He bets 1800 into a pot of 2400 on the turn and I call. The rest of my stack (2265) goes in on what I thought was a harmless river and I was out in 2nd place.

    I was given two opportunities to fold - the check-raise on the flop and the turn but I really felt top pair would be good, I honestly did. I have trouble knowing what the winning hand is likely to be heads up. I have folded some strong hands fearing I was beaten but I have also led out with nothing but an overcard and taken down some big pots so I am still finding my way to an extent. But I am experiencing a lot more second places than wins recently so perhaps I am getting carried away and should be folding more. As I said before, when I have chips I can still play hands which I can't do if I shove it all in on a loser and get eliminated. This week I have had 3 wins and 7 second places and I'm pretty sure I wasn't so far behind in those heads up matches that I couldn't have turned some of the round with a little more patience and converted some of those second places into wins.

    Thanks CF - you have made me really think about some things this morning :)



  5. #155

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    Interesting to read the perspectives going on here. My thoughts on the near-bubble play...

    In a 9 or 10 seat STT I tighten up a little when we get down to 6 players, and a bit more when we hit 5. The reason is that around this stage some people (hopefully not me) are in trouble with small stacks and they'll be trying to get lucky and double up on some sucker. Premium hands only...

    When we get to 4 players I loosen a little as most people are hanging on trying to make the blinds so generally a good time to push the mid stack people around if you get alright cards. Always wary of the short stack.

    3 players and I like to go nuts. Generally the payouts for 3rd is 20%, 2nd gets 30% and 1st gets 50%. My thinking here is that if I have made the money I dont want to "waste" time and then only come 2nd (like you said you dont get that much more from it) so I accept the 3rd place and push for 1st by trying to get the biggest stack early after the bubble. If that fails I've been paid and have more time to play again. Of course this varies depending on how your stack is when the bubble bursts...

    But you've played a fair bit more poker (and read LOTS more :D) so probably already have heard of this train of thought before



  6. #156

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    Here's one for you then, a hand I just played.

    It's level 1 (10/20) of an STT that started 9-handed but has already seen one player eliminated with QQ into 45 which had made two pair on the flop. You have AA on the button. UTG+1 limps and the player to your right makes it 80 to go (4xBB). AA on the button so you re-raise to 200. The blinds fold, the early limper calls but the original raiser shoves all-in for 1460 total. You have 1270 behind so have him covered (by 10 chips). This is a big re-raise and would basically see you eliminated if you call and lose. UTG+1 has you both covered by a couple of hundred chips.

    What do you do? Call the all-in and risk elimination or fold and keep a good stack running?

    I'm not going to tell you what I did just yet...



  7. #157

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    Call.



  8. #158

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazybadger View Post
    Call.
    I thought about it for a while, using some of the time that PokerStars gives you (something I don't do often enough and am trying to do more often) but that was the conclusion I came to as well.

    I thought that before the original raiser had raised I would like to get as much as I can reasonably get into the pot pre-flop holding the best starting hand, hence my re-raise. I was hoping for a re-raise but not an all-in shove so I could then shove over the top but it didn't quite work like that and his shove threw me a little. I looked at my stack and seriously thought about folding and taking a 1300 stack forward. Then I slapped myself and called. It's an obvious call isn't it?

    The raiser to my right showed 99 and the board came 5-Q-Q-4-K so I doubled up. The QQ v 45 clash a few hands earlier had got me thinking too. When the all-in shove came when I had Aces I had no idea what to expect I'd be facing. There had been some mental play so far, real craziness



  9. #159

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    28th August 2009
    Stop it. Stop it, stop it, stop it!

    I'm beginning to go right off this game, by which I mean poker itself. I can't win at limit cash games and I can't win at no-limit STTs either at the minute. I have tried other forms of the game in the past and I couldn't win at those either. I don't think I'm a great player by any means but I think I am good enough to grind out a small weekly profit on a regular basis and steadily build a bankroll. But that really ain't happening. A week or two back it looked like it could and then I started playing the game full time and it has all gone awry.

    I said I wanted to work on this end of tourney leak I have spotted - calling and shoving all-in with inferior hands. I don't expect to cure myself of this problem instantly but I do expect to be able to work towards a solution and hopefully improve with each event played. So how am I doing on that front? Let's look at my tourney exits today and see how I did...

    1. Eliminated in 4th

    I lost half my stack with KJo when we were on the bubble. I was 3rd in chips with more than double the short-stack. I raised to 600 (3xBB) UTg with KJo and the short-stack shoved over the top for 1200 total. The blinds folded and it was 600 to me into a pot of 2100. My first thought was that I am not supposed to be getting into these situations with hands like this. Right, clear that thought out and think about the situation. The pot odds were decent at 7/2 but what am I up against? I'm 60/40 against a random hand but give him a shoving range of 77+, all Aces (suited and offsuit), suited broadways and KQo (not an unreasonable assumption is it?) and I'm a 40/60 dog. I'm still 30/70 against TT+, AQ+, a very strong, tight shoving range in this situation. The pot odds are there for anything over than an ultra-tight range. Unless I am up against a premium hand I am OK, pot-odds wise. I can call and lose and still have something of a stack (around 1500 with blinds at 100/200) so I can call. And I do. And lose to A2s with the board bricking out and him taking it with Ace high.

    So I am now the short stack but things aren't too desperate yet. I get the rest of my chips in a few hands later with my stack down to 1235. I shove UTG again and the button calls me. The same clash as before only now the stacks are effectively swapped over. I table A2o and he shows me 55. The board blanks and he takes it and eliminates me on the bubble.

    The first move with KJo is justifiable in my mind, looking back on it. The A2o shove? I expected it to get through based on what I had seen go before on previous hands but the button woke up with a playable hand. This one wasn't too bad I don't think. I needed to make some moves with 6xBB else I was going to be stuffed and the Ace UTG looked good enough to give it a go.

    2. Eliminated in 5th
    I had hardly played a hand before this point. The blinds had taken a chunk out of me and I had 1000 behind with the blinds at 75/150. It's 5-handed and I am second to act. I shove all-in with KTo on a steal only to get a call from the SB with AJo. I think I was desperate at this stage. I had little over 6xBB in my stack and had just been getting blinded out. A panic shove or the move that needed to be made given my tight image? Either way an Ace on the flop seals my fate and I bust out in 5th.

    I could perhaps try to justify this given my image to that point but then you can't really blame the guy who called with AJo as his stack was as imperilled as mine. I was a 38/62 underdog so hardly surprising I lost really.

    3. Eliminated in 6th
    I was unable to get going again and brought a stack of 805 to the hand with the blinds at 75/150 so my stack was shorter than the previous examples. I have 3s one off the button and shove. The SB calls with JJ and out I go when the board offers no help.

    I hadn't been very active; I wa hanging back for a decent hand and was usually facing action before me when I had a potentially playable hand so backed off. Unfortunately that left me pretty short coming into this hand and I was unlucky to run into a bigger pocket pair.

    4. Eliminated in 3rd
    I had done well to survive this long, to be honest. I should probably been out in 4th or 5th but I wasn't. I was scrapping to survive though and reached the money with just over 1000 chips and blinds at 100/200. I stole a few hands then went through the BB to leave me in the SB with a stack of 1440 or 7xBB. UTG/button calls and it's an easy shove (in my mind) with 99 for the rest of my chips. The BB calls and shows me TT - another overpair situation like the previous tourney. The board is no help and I go out in 3rd.

    I don't mind this one at all. It's the right move to make with a decent pocket pair. I am short stacked and the button has shown no strength so in it all goes. Had I doubled up I would still be 3rd in chips so there was some scrapping still to be done and I needed to take my chances as they cropped up. This time it just wasn't to be.

    5. Eliminated in 6th
    I actually went out with 94s but that's because I only had 28 chips with blinds of 75/150 thanks to a kicking a couple of hands earlier. Again, I had been quiet and had a little below my starting stack with 1388 having not been able to pick up any chips on the previous levels. A9o second to act and I shove it all in. It's a steal and nothing more. The SB (why is it always the small blind looking me up?) calls with AJo and his better kicker wins the pot after the board blanks out.

    I saw the stack of the SB and didn't think he'd be willing to gamble for all his chips but then I didn't expect him to have a decent hand. A9o is 60/40 against a random hand so it seemed like a good situation for the shove. Maybe I was wrong.

    6. Eliminated in 7th
    Again the blinds are 75/150 - the level where I seem to come unstuck a lot. This time I have built my starting stack up a little to 1940. UTG+1 raises to 450. I look down at AQo and shove over the top thinking I can re-steal but I have a hand if I do get called. Of course he calls, he has AKo and there is no help from the board.

    Aww, come on. I've twice run pairs into bigger pairs, in the last one I ran into kicker problems and the same has happened again here. Who's getting all my luck?

    7. Eliminated in 2nd
    I was lucky to get heads-up here if I recall correctly. Three-handed I raised to 600 UTG with KTo as the short-stack and blinds of 100/200. The two big stacks butt heads with 55 and JJ double up the smaller of the two stacks. I then eliminate the smaller stack (who has been reduced to around my level) a few hands later when I river a 7 with 97s against his KQo. I desperation-shoved from the button and he called out the BB. I got lucky for once. But heads up I was down 3:1 in chips and facing a struggle. We battled a while and we got even in chips at one point before I gained a slight chip lead. Unfortunately it seemed every time I had a reasonable piece of the board he had a bigger piece (bigger pairs, trips to my two pair etc). It's supposed to be hard to hit a flop but he was doing much better than I was at it. He had recently started to shove all-in with every hand even though he had me greatly outchipped by about 5:1 at this stage. I got dealt A6o in the BB and when he shoved from the SB I called for my remaining 2080 (blinds at 100/200 ante 25). He flipped A4o and I am finally ahead in one of these confrontations. Until he flops a 4 and a flush draw of course. His pair of 4s is enough though and he takes the win.

    Seriously, what do I have to do to win a hand like this? I actually got my money in ahead this time and still lost!

    8. Eliminated in 4th
    Blinds are 100/200 and I am short-stacked with 1175. UTG raises to 800 and I am on the button with KQs. Take into account the blind money and I actually have the odds for the shove, even if I get called so off I go. UTG calls and shows me TT for an old-fashioned race. The board blanks out yet again and off I tootle in the bubble yet again. Yawn.

    I'm not so crazy about this one, or I wasn't at the time. I was angry with myself when he showed me tens but in hindsight I did have the pot odds. He's obviously going to call another few hundred chips as he had over 5k at the start of the hand so I am looking at a pot of 1500 for my 1200 (roughly). That's almost exactly what I need if I am up against a pair lower than either of my cards but it just wasn't to be this time. Could I have folded? Sure, but I'd still be in trouble as my stack is under 6xBB so I need to shove sometime. Perhaps I should have waited till I could open-shove rather than being the caller.

    You have to admit there is some bad luck in there. There's some poor play too, granted, but some damn awful luck too.

    One thing I think I do need to work on is my play in the earlier levels. I am getting to 50/100 with a stack around 1000 having been chipped away by the blinds. I need to try to pick up a few pots earlier on but without taking stupid risks. That's the new leak to work on.

    With just two cashes (a second and a third) from eight tournaments this morning for a loss of $43 I am going to have to swallow my pride and step down to protect my bankroll I think. I could deposit more but do I want to at this stage? I'm clearly not on my best form so continuing to play at the $10 level could be dangerous to my wealth. I'm going to step down to the $5 tourneys and try to rebuild some confidence in my play and hopefully start showing some positive results. Hopefully.



  10. #160

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    Mat - always play to your bankroll. I would never recommend further deposits - that's the way to the bankruptcy court.

    My bankroll dips fairly regularly but I just step down a level, build it back and go back to where I was. You should be able to beat the lower level fairly readily so it won't take long to get that $43 and some additional profits back. A couple of days work at the most.

    I've never understood the attraction of bestiality but looking back over my life it does appear as though I married a cow, lived with a moose, been out with at least 5 dogs and spent a lot of time being chased by whales.


  11. #161

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    I think I'm actually going to be forced into a break to take stock of things. The missus' parents are down this weekend to celebrate their anniversary and I don't see much spare time to play poker till Monday at least. Could be a good thing. Time to reflect and all that



  12. #162

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    Take a break fella, it will do you some good. Playing hours and hours of poker every day isn't going well for you at the minute. I'm worried that if you try to play more poker to make back what you've recently lost, you'll lose even more, and faster.

    When you come back to play, keep an open mind at the table, and put to bed everything that's happened before.

    You shouldn't be calling with marginal hands around the bubble. By all means lead out with them, but don't call with them. If they're marginal you really don't want to be seeing a flop, so if you're first to make a move then push all in. The kind of hands I'm talking about are KJ, KQ, A7-9, and any small pocket pair - 2's to 6's. Obviously at the same time you have to protect your stack so I'm not saying push in relentlessly at every opportunity. Even around the bubble I'm conscious of calling with AQ and AK. AK is not much better than any other two non-paired cards. It becomes pot luck, and you don't want that. You want to get your chips in first, being the initial aggessor, with good cards. People are more hesitant to call a big raise or a push than they are leading out with one.

    I'm pleased you've ditched limit poker too. Good move. It works for some but you're someone who's clued up on pot odds, making sure you bet the right amount, and you can't do that in limit poker.

    Try to be the aggressor early on to sustain a healthy enough chip stack for when you're 6 or 5 seated. It sounds like you're either not being dealt the right cards in the right positions, or you're playing too tightly in the early stages.

    If I think of anything else I'll add to it later. Good luck though.

    Please take a look at:
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  13. #163

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    28th August 2009 (part two)
    Seriously, this is getting ridiculous. I managed to get three tourneys played just now (dropping down to $5+0.50) and still the poker gods have it in for me.

    1. Eliminated in 4th
    I had been nursing a short stack for a while now. I think I had around 1300 when the blinds hit 50/100 and around 1000 when we reached 75/150. I had picked up a reasonable pot on the second level with QQ and lost those chips again with 99 on the next level. Other than that it was just the blinds affecting my stack. I had nothing playable - either I was in a duff position or the action ahead of me was too heavy for the hand I was holding and it wasn't worth the risk. I did get a double up with A9 when I was down to 755 chips at 100/200 and managed to keep a steady stack for a few orbits. So it was with 1510 at 100/200 with 25 antes that I met my doom. UTG folds, the button raises to 800 and knowing he would call the extra I shoved the rest of my stack in. He did indeed call and I had him dominated (which makes a change) with my AQo ahead of his KQo. He flops a King and there is no joy for me on the board and I am out. I was nearly 3/1 to win that hand but he hits his King. Why when I am ahead do I never seem to win the crucial hands?

    2. Eliminated in 5th
    I played one hand before I went bust. I raised it up to 3xBB on level two with ATs, checked the flop and dropped the hand on the turn when I faced action and had no piece of the board (4-9-6-J). I got two free flops out of the BB each of which was check-folded when I didn't get anywhere near it. And that was it until the final hand. Again I'd had nothing all tournament and was being steadily blinded out. I took a stand with 33 in the SB with blinds at 75/150 (what else?) and a stack of 685. The BB calls and shows me 44. Why me?

    3. Eliminated in 7th
    The hand I went bust on was annoying enough but we'll come to that in a minute as it was 3 hands earlier that the damage was done. We're still 8-handed with blinds at 50/100. I'm UTG+1 and raise to 300 with QQ but the button re-raises me to 600 total. Hmm. I have two options - call his 300 or shove over the top and get it all in. I can call and still have 575 behind which is a lousy stack but I am still alive. I don't see folding as an option here as I don't think he has Aces. I don't know that of course but I just don't think so. I call his re-raise. We both see a flop of 7-8-9, two spades. He's not re-raising an early position raiser with JT is he? So he hopefully has overcards to the board (AJ+, maybe suited) and isn't making this play with a medium pair that has now made trips. I shove all-in for 575 into a pot of 1350. The money is going to go in anyway so I may as well be the aggressor. He quickly calls and flips over KK. Yes, very good. Sigh.

    I had him covered by 110 chips, 50 of which go on the SB a couple of hands later. I have 94o so won't shove the extra 60 in when there has been a raise and a call. Next hand though - AKo. The 60 chips can go in now. There is a mid-position raise to 300, I call for 60 and the blinds fold. I am heads up on the flop against...QJo. I like those odds (65/35 apparently). It would only be a token win but it would at least see me win a pot for a change. A Queen on the flop puts paid to those thoughts and another on the river comes out just to taunt me and kick me in the knackers.

    If the game just isn't going to play fair then I am getting increasingly tempted to give it all up.



  14. #164

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    Quote Originally Posted by John View Post
    I'm worried that if you try to play more poker to make back what you've recently lost, you'll lose even more, and faster.
    That won't happen. I sound off in here but I do actually practice semi-reasonable bankroll management and I wouldn't chase losses. I would continue to play as often as I have been the past few days and just hope things eventually turn themselves round as I don't think my STT game is that bad at present, despite the results.

    Try to be the aggressor early on to sustain a healthy enough chip stack for when you're 6 or 5 seated. It sounds like you're either not being dealt the right cards in the right positions, or you're playing too tightly in the early stages.
    I'm honestly getting nothing I feel is playable. Either the position is wrong or the action ahead of me is too strong to justify playing the hand. I'll pick a couple of tourneys at random to show you what I mean. I'll start a new post for them to make the discussion easier...



  15. #165

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare
    3. Eliminated in 7th
    The hand I went bust on was annoying enough but we'll come to that in a minute as it was 3 hands earlier that the damage was done. We're still 8-handed with blinds at 50/100. I'm UTG+1 and raise to 300 with QQ but the button re-raises me to 600 total. Hmm. I have two options - call his 300 or shove over the top and get it all in.
    I know one the worst things you can say to someone after they bust out is to tell them you'd have played it differently, but I know also that's why you go to these details in your posts in the first place. If this were me I'd have probably shoved all-in over the top of his 600 re-raise. Because, seeing a King or Ace on that flop spells danger for you and you're forced to give it up. 575 remaining isn't going to give you much time to make a move, and you're reliant on being dealt both a strong hand, and one at that, in good position. Even though you were beat I'd have got all my chips in pre-flop. I say these things, but I'd have probably put him him on Tens, Jacks or AKo/s. I'd always think I was ahead... and I think in poker sometimes you have to adopt that mentality even if it isn't always true. Push and know you're ahead, given the odds are so slim he has Queens or better.

    Quote Originally Posted by mathare
    I'm honestly getting nothing I feel is playable. Either the position is wrong or the action ahead of me is too strong to justify playing the hand. I'll pick a couple of tourneys at random to show you what I mean. I'll start a new post for them to make the discussion easier...
    Yeah, if you could post up examples on here that would be good. I'll try and help you analyse them and tell you what I'd have done... [if you like]

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  16. #166

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    PokerStars Game #32152086516: Tournament #190749755, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit
    I start in seat 9 (button is seat #1). My hands were folded unless otherwise stated:
    Level I (10/20)
    KJo
    J5o
    94o
    64o
    Q4o
    K5o
    83s (BB)
    K4s (SB)
    A5o
    86s
    54o
    Level II (15/30)
    T9s (raise ahead of me)
    K5o
    K7o
    QQ (+405 chips)
    J5s (BB)
    92o (SB)
    75o
    J3s
    75o
    83o
    Level III (25/50)
    A3o
    82o
    99 (-500 chips)
    96s (BB)
    T6o
    T2o
    73o
    A7o
    83o
    (Seat #6 eliminated)
    K5o
    Level IV (50/100)
    AQo (BB - checked with 2 callers. Didn't raise due to my position & the fact that one caller had only 11xBB so a standard raise to 3xBB may result in him being all in and I didn't fancy being all-in with AQo at this stage)
    J9o (SB - I would have made a full house had I seen this to the river, incidentally)
    K3o
    Q5o
    75o
    KQo (folded in mid-position despite no action ahead of me. My best hand for ages but still only marginal. A standard raise pretty much pot commits me and that's something I am trying to get away from)
    A6o
    J8o
    53o (BB)
    KQo (SB - UTG+1 limps, short-stack shoves for 975 so this was an easy fold in this situation)
    85o
    Level V (75/150)
    88 - UTG & UTG+1 both limp. I considered limping but with 1005 in chips a limp leaves me pretty much committed to the pot if there is a raise (in my view). I could shove but both limpers have me covered and I expect to get at least one caller, especially as UTG+1 doesn't have me covered my more than a few hundred so maybe looking for a near double up. The flop came 2-9-6 with two diamonds and both limpers folded to a bet from the BB.
    94s
    Q6o
    Q9o
    K8o
    43o (BB)
    (Seats #1 & #2 eliminated)
    KQo (SB, +150 chips from a steal when folded round to me)
    55 (folded due to 3xBB UTG raise)
    A4o
    A6o
    52o
    Q9s (BB)
    Level VI (100/200)
    Q4s (SB)
    (Seat #7 eliminated)
    Q9o
    62o
    J2s
    85s (BB)
    75o (SB, +200 chips from a steal when folded round to me)
    A6o - UTG raised so I folded else I may have considered a steal
    A9o (+855 chips) - doubled up with a 9 on the turn against 55 in BB
    K9 - too risky UTG so folded
    94o (BB, +300 chips) - checked down to the river where my 9 high card held up, bizarrely
    J2o (SB)
    54o
    T5s
    (Seat #3 eliminated)
    JTo - a hand I thought about stealing with but I had my own words about busting out with marginal hands ringing in my ears and I still had 9xBB
    J5o (BB)
    98o (SB)
    62o
    A2o
    T7o (BB, +100 chips with a walk)
    42o (SB)
    74s
    72o
    Level VII (100/200 ante 25)
    AQo (BB, -1510 chips)
    (Seat #9 is eliminated)

    And there we have it. The pocket 8s may have been playable but I don't see many other spots I missed.



  17. #167

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    Quote Originally Posted by John View Post
    I know one the worst things you can say to someone after they bust out is to tell them you'd have played it differently, but I know also that's why you go to these details in your posts in the first place.
    I put up the details to help me dissect my own play but also to spark discussion about how I could/should have played so feel free to chip in.

    If this were me I'd have probably shoved all-in over the top of his 600 re-raise. Because, seeing a King or Ace on that flop spells danger for you and you're forced to give it up.
    I considered this and perhaps I should have done so but I honestly don't think it made much difference here. He'd call the difference anyway given his actions so far and his stack size. I thought the flat call and shove on the flop may give me the chance to represent a stronger hand than he thought I'd have. Plus I have the option to check-fold to a King or Ace on the flop this way.

    Yeah, if you could post up examples on here that would be good. I'll try and help you analyse them and tell you what I'd have done... [if you like]
    Have a look at the rather dull post above as it's not at all atypical of what I have seen in each tourney. If you can find edges I should have pushed let me know and I can post more details as necessary



  18. #168

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    Mat

    Inspired by reading your posts and your previously mentioned dislike/disdain for the double or nothing games on Poker Stars, I have decided to put to use the rather unexpected $45 I had sitting in there.

    My idea is to play the $1 tables until I get to $100 and then increase the stakes. I will ONLY play these when I am doing nothing else as they will get in the way of the real work.

    I'm not going to crash your poker diary with my updates. I will start my own thread.

    The reason I am posting this here is because of the Poker Stars link. I doubt we will play the same players at this stage but I have no doubt I will meet your adversaries along the way and maybe we could compare notes.

    I've never understood the attraction of bestiality but looking back over my life it does appear as though I married a cow, lived with a moose, been out with at least 5 dogs and spent a lot of time being chased by whales.


  19. #169

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    Hmmm. You're right Mat. Nothing there actually looks like you could have made any kind of moves different from what you did. The very small number of Ax+ hands you did play, and one of them (A9) paid you off. Shame there weren't more of these at A6 or better, as they could have helped you out (no **** sherlock!)

    You didn't post any premium or sub-premium hands which is a shame (obv. you weren't dealt any, but had you have been it would have been interesting to see how you played them).

    Just keep at it. You can't be doing that much wrong, you're just getting unlucky more times than is mathematically/statistically correct for the hands you're up against when you get all your chips in. How many tables are you playing at once? Don't play any more than 4 at a time; it's one thing keeping you in focus and making you concentrate but it's another thing when you can't keep track of what you're doing.

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  20. #170

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    Quote Originally Posted by John View Post
    Hmmm. You're right Mat. Nothing there actually looks like you could have made any kind of moves different from what you did. The very small number of Ax+ hands you did play, and one of them (A9) paid you off. Shame there weren't more of these at A6 or better, as they could have helped you out (no **** sherlock!)
    And that A9 was a desperation move, not one I'd normally make with that hand (I prefer AT+).

    You didn't post any premium or sub-premium hands which is a shame (obv. you weren't dealt any, but had you have been it would have been interesting to see how you played them).
    The Queens were the best I got and there's not much of a tale to tell with those. I raised to 3xBB pre-flop and got two callers. The flop came T-A-9 rainbow and I bet 180 into a 315 pot to see where I stood with that Ace out there. One caller to the turn of another T. I check as that Ten concerns me. Was he playing Tx with the x being a broadway card? Check and see what he does. He checks behind me and we see another Ten dealt on the river. OK, now I'm worried. I'm losing to a naked Ace (as I was anyway) but otherwise I should be OK unless he's made quads. Argh. It goes check-check and I take the pot against his QJs.

    Just keep at it. You can't be doing that much wrong, you're just getting unlucky more times than is mathematically/statistically correct for the hands you're up against when you get all your chips in.
    Cheers John

    How many tables are you playing at once? Don't play any more than 4 at a time; it's one thing keeping you in focus and making you concentrate but it's another thing when you can't keep track of what you're doing.
    I play 4 at once and that's comfortable for me. It's the right level. When one ends I start another up to try and keep 4 running at all times. That's my comfort zone



  21. #171

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    29th August 2009
    I don't have time to play any poker today (and may not tomorrow either) but I do have a few spare minutes just to consider my starting hands once more. Looking at the tournaments played only on PokerStars and sorted by BB/hand I see the best hands for me have been AA, KK, QQ, TT and 77 which are over 0.5BB/hand better than than the rest (next up is AJs, A9s, 88, J8s and KTs). So that's big pairs and big suited Aces basically, although note that AK and AQ havem't popped up yet. AKo comes in a bit lower down the list (13th best) with AQo in 17th position. So where are AKs and AQs?

    AKs is actually my 3rd least profitable hand behind ATs and 76s although this last hand is only in there as I have lost some decent pots with it when play has been 2 or 3-handed and the blinds have been high. I'm only dealing with just over 11,000 hands here so as the sample increases this picture will become clearer and more accurate. The full top ten of losing hands then is ATs, 76s, AKs, 33, Q5s, KQs, 55, JTs, KQo and 43s. It's no surprise that both KQ hands are in there given my all-in difficulties with marginal hands.

    If I update the filter slightly to look at hands with 7 or more players (so we're not short-handed but the blinds could still be quite high) we see the worst hands are now AKs, ATs, KQs, 97s and 99 with the best five being AA, KK, QQ, 77 and TT - the big pairs again mainly.

    I'm only scratching the surface here and I don't have much time to go any deeper but I am sowing seeds in my mind as to where to take this in the future. I need to build up more hands to 5 or 10 times what I have already really which means another 40,000 hands or roughly another 500 tournaments working on an average of 80 hands per tourney (which is pretty much what I am seeing at present). So that's another 4 or 5 week's 'work' I guess. In another month I should have a much clearer picture of how things stand with my best/worst hands and can use that to narrow down how I should be playing at full tables and as we get short-handed.

    I also want to start thinking more about position. At the minute I am green on all positions but the blinds when viewed in terms of BB/hand (a much better measure than amount won/lost in chips). I want to get a better picture of my VPIP and PFR and how that changes with position too though, and also what hands I am taking to show down in each position and whether or not I am winning these confrontations. I'm not doing so 2 off the button it seems as I only win 34.21% of showdowns. Just over 1 in 3 - oof!

    More on all of this another day...



  22. #172

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    1st September 2009
    Given the current flakiness of my cable modem I wasn't sure whether or not to play any poker this morning. I was weighing up the potential cost of the modem going kaput again while I had four tables open against the chance of it happening and the need (desire) to record more tourney hands and get a better line of how I should be tweaking my play. In the end the unbridled joy of actually having a broadband connection that worked (for now at least) was too much to take after yesterday and I jumped on a couple of tables. Only two, mind, as I thought that was a fair compromise given the risk of losing my connection.

    In both events I got dealt an absolute bucketload of unplayable trash again until I was short-stacked (under 10xBB) with the blinds up at 50/100 or 75/150. In the first tourney I had already had one lucky double up when my Q5s desperation shove was called by the big stack to my left who really defended everything going but this time had me dominated with A5s. I flopped a flush draw that completed on the river and that was enough to keep me alive a bit longer. Some trash through the blinds then a steal with AJo and a walk with KJo. Fold my SB and then a few hands later another steal attempt with AJo again. I get a caller this time from the SB (the position that usually busts me it seems) and we check the board down all the way. I paired my Ace on the river to take it down against his KTs which was drawing to an inside straight from the flop. Fold my BB and then I was eliminated with TT on my small blind. Second to act min-raises to 300 so I shove over the top to 1900 total. He calls and shows ATs making me around 65/35 to win the hand. Two Aces on the flop weren't exactly what I wanted to see but that's what came and busted me in 5th.

    If that was some lousy luck then karma tried to balance things out in the second event. I had folded everything until my stack was down to 750 with blinds at 50/100 when I got AKs in middle position with the game five-handed. I got a double up against TT after the flop gave him trips and me an inside straight draw which hit on the river. Phew. I then folded ATo UTG next hand (just didn't fancy risking it, to be honest) and then exactly the same cards next hand in the BB. There was a raise to 3xBB (450 with blinds now 75/150) UTG+1 so I re-raise shove over the top for 1650 total and get a call with KQo. I pair my Ten on the flop and it holds up eliminating the other guy in 5th. That's normally my trick with KQo. There follows a period of folding trash before I eliminate another with QJo against K3o when I attempted to steal from the short-stacked BB as the SB myself. I didn't mind being called as it was blind v blind and I had half a hand. I paired the river again to win the hand. Lucky boy. What happened a few hands later was extremely fortunate - my internet connection died. I resigned myself to finishing 3rd as I guessed my cable modem had gone kaput again. But I reset it and hoped and 3 or 4 minutes later my connection was restored. I checked the poker table to see just two of us sat there - I hadn't gone out in 3rd and someone had stupidly played and lost while I was sat out when they could have cruised into second place. Ha ha ha! I was outchipped over 5:1 at this point though and was being dealt cards I wouldn't even play heads up so I was folding for a while. I then got some good hands like JJ and AJo I could steal raise with and 77 which I was able to double up with. More folding and stealing followed till I got a glorious AKo against his 99 and with all the money in the middle I flopped a straight and I was off. I now had a better than 2:1 chip lead and kept up the steal/fold combinations till I got those wonderful 7s again and we got all the money in the middle. I turned the top end of a straight with the board reading 6-5-3-4 and he turned the bottom with Q2s so when the river blanked I registered the win. After expecting to bust in 3rd when my connection failed the win was very welcome.

    Not sure I will risk any more poker this afternoon though as my connection has dropped 3 times while writing this so it is clearly unstable. I can't wait for that new modem to arrive!



  23. #173

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare
    Fold my BB and then I was eliminated with TT on my small blind. Second to act min-raises to 300 so I shove over the top to 1900 total. He calls and shows ATs making me around 65/35 to win the hand. Two Aces on the flop weren't exactly what I wanted to see but that's what came and busted me in 5th.
    Good play, I'd have done the same. He should never have called your shove with ATs though.

    Quote Originally Posted by mathare
    I then folded ATo UTG next hand (just didn't fancy risking it, to be honest) and then exactly the same cards next hand in the BB. There was a raise to 3xBB (450 with blinds now 75/150) UTG+1 so I re-raise shove over the top for 1650 total and get a call with KQo. I pair my Ten on the flop and it holds up eliminating the other guy in 5th. That's normally my trick with KQo.
    That was quite a brave push! What made you push over the top; what made you sure you had the better hand? The reason I ask is that he could have had a whole host of decent cards: Pocket pairs 88 through to, well, AA, and maybe he'd have pushed with AQ/AK. Nice that you hit though. Again, I'd just have been very wary of a call to your shove from the initial raiser and I'd think I was well and truly beaten when seeing his call. He flipped over KQo, a bad call really [any shove like yours screams that you have JJ/QQ/KK/AA or at least any Ace plus a 10+ kicker]. So on that presumption, his KQ call makes him odds against to win the pot. Nice that you won it, I just don't think I'd have pushed over the top of him, I'd have probably folded.

    Nice that you [very fortunately] won the tournament though, good work. Hope it holds out.

    I'm not going to be around much over the next few days Mat, but I'll read this with interest over the weekend and catch up on your posts then, if I get chance. Leave me a reply if you like and I'll get back to you in a few days. Good luck.

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  24. #174

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    Quote Originally Posted by John View Post
    That was quite a brave push! What made you push over the top; what made you sure you had the better hand?
    This was purely situational for me. Five players left with stacks of 2910 (SB), 1650 (me in BB), 4235, 1420 and 3285. UTG folds and UTG+1 raises to 450 with the blinds at 75/150. A standard 3xBB raise but he has less than 10xBB in his stack so why isn't he shoving? Folding to a re-raise here will leave him no sort of stack at all so he's basically committed himself to the hand but allowed someone to make an aggressive move against him. It's folded round to me where it is 300 to call from a stack of 1500 after posting. Call and I have 1200 left if I lose and there is no more betting but the pot will be 975 so roughly the same size as his remaining stack and not much less than mine. We'd both be committed to the hand really. Could I bet him off it on the flop on that basis? I don't think I could so if I am going to do anything it's all-in or fold pre-flop. Do I think he'd fold to an all-in shove? No, probably not but it's possible. His pre-flop raise isn't that strong and he has shown inexperience by not going all-in himself. ATo is a decent hand heads-up. If he's shoving any pair or any broadway hand then my hand is close to 50/50 against his range. The tighter his range the worse my odds, granted, but he's the short stack with the blinds approaching - he cannot afford to wait around too long for a hand to come to him so he is going to have to make some moves. In hindsight this is perhaps a marginal move but on the basis that there is a slight chance he will make another pre-flop mistake and fold plus the fact I have an Ace with a decent kicker that will hopefully mean I am in suitable shape here.

    All that analysis was done just now, way after the event of course but it serves a useful purpose and helps to hone my instincts, which is what I used at the time to make the move.

    Again, I'd just have been very wary of a call to your shove from the initial raiser and I'd think I was well and truly beaten when seeing his call.
    Don't get me wrong, I didn't want the call that much at all but it was probably the right move from both of us given the stack sizes. If one knocks the other out the stacks across the four remaining players are much more even and it becomes a fairer fight.

    He flipped over KQo, a bad call really [any shove like yours screams that you have JJ/QQ/KK/AA or at least any Ace plus a 10+ kicker]. So on that presumption, his KQ call makes him odds against to win the pot. Nice that you won it, I just don't think I'd have pushed over the top of him, I'd have probably folded.
    Now I have given the details of stack sizes would you still have folded? Would you have called the 300 from the BB and seen a flop?

    Replying here as not to disturb the flow of your thread. Yes, I would still have folded the AT I think. I prefer to make the first move when going all in, I dislike calling someone else's push (unless I have a very strong hand). You stated that his pre-flop raise wasn't that strong, but he could have had a really strong hand and deliberately only raised 3xBB in an attempt to build a pot. I wouldn't have flat called his raise either, because I'd have lost it on the flop on the assumption that being first to act, he'd have probably pushed his remaining stack regardless of the flop (unless an Ace appeared). My preference here would be to fold and wait for a better opportunity (in a better position). I'd have been too scared of being the underdog with AT and feared he'd have AJ or AQ. If anything, the bottom line is this: the differences in our decisions is what makes this game so interesting.



  25. #175

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    2nd September 2009
    I still don't trust my internet connection enough to stay alive for a proper poker session today so I am exercising restraint and proving to myself that I don't need to play poker every day. It's proving quite difficult though, more so the longer my broadband stays up. But I will stay strong and stay off the tables. Instead I want to do some more analysis of my PokerTracker database, in particular my all-ins.

    I have filtered my PT database to look just at hands played in PokerStars tourneys where I raised all-in pre-flop and got a caller so we saw a flop. I want to look at these 231 hands and see what I have been shoving with, what I am getting called by and whether I am winning as many of these all-ins as the odds say I should be. Basically have I been the victim of bad luck or have I actually been quite jammy? For each of the hands I have recorded the blinds, effective stacks, the pot and the hand(s) I was up against. I have run each hand through an odds calculator and noted down the chances of each hand winning and also the chance of a tie. From this I have worked out the most likely result for each hand and compared it to the actual result, as well as calculating my EV on each (given that a hand has called me so I know my exact chances of winning the pot, as well as the pot size as there can be no further betting as I am all-in). I have flagged the hands where I got my money in good, i.e. where my EV is positive. So let's have a look shall we...

    Of the various hands I have raised all-in with pre-flop and got a caller the biggest winner for me in terms of BB/hand is AA, unsurprisingly. The biggest loser? KQo. Again, no surprise given the rants I have had about my exits with that hand in the past. It should be noted here that we're dealing with very small samples so these conclusions aren't that accurate and are just for interest more than anything else. That said, I should probably stop shoving with KQo unless I really have to. Ditto QJs and perhaps 55 which is also right up there.

    Of the 231 hands in this study the biggest winning percentage I experienced pre-flop was 92.80% (AA v AKo) with the lowest being 1.82% (AKo v AKo so a likely split pot). On average my chance of winning was 45.78%, lower than I was expecting if I am honest. Hmmm. The average chance of me losing a hand was 50.79% so perhaps it's not quite as bad as I thought. Take out some of these shoves with low pairs when I was up against an overpair (as seems to happen quite often) and things look much better though.

    144 of the 231 hands (62.34%) went the way they "should" have done, that is to say they went the way of the greatest percentage chance. I was expected to win 89 of the hands (again, lower than I expected) but I actually won 102! That's 13 hands I shouldn't have won that I did. Of the 89 hands I was expected to win I won 53, split 4 and lost 32 so effectively I won 55/89 (61.80%) and lost 34/89 (38.20%). I was expected to lose 138 hands and of those I did indeed lose 88 of them, split 2 and won 48. That's 89/138 lost (64.49%) and 49/138 won (35.51%). So I am actually winning a greater percentage of the hands I should have lost than the hands I should have won. There's not much in it though and this is a small sample so I won't be reading too much into this.

    What about bad beats? What's the biggest bad beat I received and the biggest I dished out? The biggest bad beats I have given (lowest chance of me winning but I still won the hand) are my AQo cracking pocket Aces then when I rivered a straight, closely followed by AKs beating AKo by rivering a flush. The worst bad beat I have received was getting JJ beaten by 88 but having AKo beaten by AQo and A7o (on separate occasions) and AQo beaten by KQo are pretty close.

    Finally - am I getting my money in good? How often do I have a positive expectation given my winning percentage and the size of the pot once I have been called? I have a positive expectation 112 times, out of 231 hands that equates to a percentage of 48.48% so I am getting a good deal from these all-ins less than half the time. Uh-oh. I plotted a graph (that I may include here later) to show how my EV changes with hand, working from AA on the left down to 22 on the right. The idea is when the graph takes an obvious downturn in EV there is probably a cut-off for my shoves and I should stop going all-in with hands below that. And it seems the turning point is TT. It's not quite as simple as only play hands TT+ as the way hands are organised this includes things like J2o but excludes 88, 99 etc. which obviously seems a bit daft. Suppose we take this data and trim out the obviously weaker hands (such as J2o) and see how that affects things shall we? That means cutting out everything below A8, all hands below K9, Queens weaker than QT, the same for Jacks, Tens weaker than T9s and then everything other than the pairs and suited connectors down to 76s. Once I do that it turns out I am getting my money in good on over 54% of hands, which is much better. If I cut out pairs below 77 then things improve even more. Interesting.

    So what is all this telling me? I'll be honest and say I am not 100% sure what I am trying to achieve here but I'm sure my brain will churn it around for the next few days and something will crop up eventually. What I think I can say though is that I am shoving with too loose a range, including some real trash. How much of that is out of necessity though? Let's look at hands where the effective stack was at least 5xBB and see how that affects things. That's 186 out of 231 hands and there is still some trash in there, about 30 or so hands meaning roughly 1 in 6 of these shoves is with hands I don't think I should be shoving with. Eek! With effective stacks of 10xBB or more there are only 6 such trash hands out of 73 so the ratio is down to 1 in 12 - much better.

    I think the main conclusion to draw here is that my range needs to be tightened for pre-flop shoves. There will always be situations where desperate measures are called for but in normal cases I should be shoving with a tighter range, something like 77+, A8+, K9+, QT+, JT+, T9s, 98s, 87s and 76s with these middling suited connectors pretty suspect too when we're thinking about heads-up all-in confrontations. Take T9s down out of the mix and that range is 63.8% against a random hand. I won't be up against random hands I know but it at least shows I am starting with a solid range for the basis of my shove tactics.

    My new cable modem arrived midway through this whole exercise but I continued with it anyway despite the massive temptattion to break off and play some poker. I'm glad I did as I now have a better outlook on my all-in tendencies and the way I am playing when it comes to the crunch. I am panicking too early and too often. I need to wait for better hands to come along rather than shoving with any Ace, for example. I can hopefully take this on board for tonight's session, assuming I get to play (which I should manage).

    Also Phil Shaw's Secrets of Sit'n'Gos has arrived so I can start reading that tonight :)



  26. #176

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    2nd September 2009 (part two)
    I managed to get 4 STTs in this evening - I could have played more but once I got all 4 fired up simultaneously I started to feel a little tired and made the decision to play them out and not start any more.

    So tonight was the first opportunity to put my new all-in knowledge into use so how did it go? I'll just focus on the main all-ins, the ones that got me eliminated.

    1. Eliminated in 3rd
    Out with AKo against 66. This is certainly in my new tight range and goes down as one of those things. It was close to a coin flip, as such confrontations are usually designated, but he was ahead all the way so I cannot complain too heartily.

    2. Eliminated in 5th
    The damage was done a few hands before I actually busted. I had 64o in the SB and had a great read on the BB - he was folding to every steal attempt and I had nicked a few chips from him myself when it had been folded round to me in the past so let's try it again. The BB was short-stacked and didn't need to take unnecessary risks - or so I thought. He called me with A6o and it held up, in fact he paired his Ace on the river. With my stack down below 400 and blinds at 100/200 with a 25 ante I was doomed. I got A5o a few hands later and in it all went. I'm called by T7o but he pairs his 7 on the turn to knock me out. 64o was nowhere near my new tight all-in zone, I know, but this time I went with a solid read and was perhaps unlucky to run into a playable hand.

    3. Eliminated in 3rd
    The 75/150 blinds have really been crippling my stack and there has been too much action for me to try stealing with anything worth trying it with so I scrape into 3rd. I get 44 in the SB and re-raise the button who had raised to 450 but my all-in is only to 660 total and I expected the call. I had made the money and had little chance of making it up the money ladder unless I took some risks so this was one of those, which is why I ventured below my pair cutoff of 77+. The button shows K5o and I am OK until the river puts a second pair on the board (6-9-6-T-9) and counterfeits my 4s to eliminate me. Like I say, I needed to take some risks to have any chance of anything but 3rd so it was worth trying.

    4. Eliminated in 7th
    Another where I couldn't get going early on with nothing playable. The end came with three pairs in a row - 7s, Tens then 4s. I lost the minimum by limping with 77 into a multi-way pot and folding when the flop came A-Q-J and the action told me I was well beaten. Next hand I had TT and raised to 300 pre-flop with blinds at 50/100. A player two behind me raised all-in (1835) and I tanked for a while. He had shown himself to be fairly loose but I could fold and have 900 chips left. My own words about not panicking too early rang loudly around my head and after a while I folded. In hindsight I think this was probably the wrong move. I'm more likely to be up against overcards than a higher pair so I should perhaps have called. I'm not sure there was enough dead money in the pot to justify it though so then again maybe the fold was correct. The next hand was bad - I made a desperation shove UTG with 44, exactly the sort of move I said earlier I need to avoid in the future. I think I was still slightly tilting from the previous hand, second guessing myself. I got called by AKo which paired the Ace on the flop and eliminated me. Oh well. Live and learn.

    So two third places tonight is all I have to show for my efforts. There's always tomorrow...



  27. #177

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    3rd September 2009
    I am becoming increasingly frustrated with this game. What do I have to do to win these days? My results are really making me question my whole approach to the game and making me wonder if I have any idea what I am doing any more, which is not good.

    I only got five STTs in this morning due to one thing and another and they results don't make for good reading. Let's take the traditional look at how I got busted shall we?

    1. Eliminated in 6th
    Blinds are 75/150 and I have a stack of 1440. The table is 6-handed. 3rd to act limps in showing no strength whatsoever. I have AJo in the SB and raise all-in over the top of the limper. He has me covered several times over with a stack of 5040 but even so I don't expect him to call what amounts to a decent re-raise from a tight player. The BB gets out the way but the limper calls and shows JJ making me a 30/70 underdog roughly. Oh dear. His pocket pair holds up when I don't pair my Ace and I am out in 6th. The hand was very much in my new pushing zone and I think I made the right play here but it just didn't work out on this occasion.

    2. Eliminated in 4th
    I had lost a couple of gambles with ATs for 9xBB and 77 for 8xBB levels two and three respectively, hadn't really won any hands other than a couple of steals and was desperately short-stacked when this hand came up. My stack was 680 with blinds at 75/150 so whatever happened I was probably going to get called. I had had nothing for several orbits now and any marginal hands I could have perhaps tried to shove with faced too much action before it was my turn to act so I lost all my fold equity. So it was with 76s that I took a stand on the button and got called by 55 in the SB. It was a tight one with the chances of me winning coming out as 48.57% plus a 1.49% chance of a split pot so with the dead BB in the pot too I had the odds to make this a +EV play. Except the 5s made a full house on the river although I had several straight draw outs till that point. Another one that wasn't to be.

    3. Eliminated in 6th
    I actually went out with QJs against KK (16.88% chance of winning) but by then I had less than 1.5xBB thanks to an earlier battle I lost. With blinds of 50/100 it's folded to the SB (1150 total) who raises to 300. My steal radar starts bleeping and I take a few seconds to consider whether my hands of KQs stands up well enough against his likely range. I could call and see a flop with him and then look to shove or fold depending on the texture of the board and his actions but instead I re-raise all-in trying to semi-bluff re-steal on him as I think my hand is good. He calls and shows A2s giving me around a 43% chance of winning. The flop comes 9-K-9 rainbow - a great flop for me. The turn is 7d giving him a flush draw, which I dodge on the river when an Ace hits instead giving him a bigger pair than mine. Rivered and out. Yawn.

    4. Eliminated in 6th
    I'd had a lucky double up earlier on when I got it all in with A9o against AQo and rivered a 9 but I still didn't really have a stack as the blinds were eating me up and I wasn't getting playable hands in the right situations. Even when it was folded round to me in late position I didn't get any hands I could confidently steal with given the tendencies of the blinds. So the end came with A4o UTG with blinds at 100/200. I shoved for 1030 total and got a caller one off the button with 88. I'm a 30/70 underdog again and his pair holds up to knock me out. Tsk.

    5. Eliminated in 2nd
    This is the only bright spot of the day. I folded my way into second, basically. I was folding a lot when it was 4-handed and was fortunate enough to have two bigger stacks clash. I got the same sort of result 3-handed too and went heads-up with a huge chip deficit of nearly 8:1. I battled this back (again by folding a lot of trash) to under 3:1 but ultimately I was fighting a losing battle. I went out with a brave/stupid shove with 74s in the BB after he had min-raised from the SB. I shoved for 2420 with blinds at 100/200 and was up against QTo. My hand defied the 35/65 odds to hit two pair on the flop of 7-4-T. The turn gave him additional flush outs but the river came a Q giving him two higher pair than me. I cannot complain too heartily here as I shouldn't have even made it that far but to to get rivered again was frustrating.

    The worst of it is I don't know where my game is going awry. I seem to almost always have a short stack going into the later levels (50/100 onwards). Am I playing too tight early on and folding too many marginal opportunities to build up some chips? Am I just getting unlucky? What the hell is wrong?!?



  28. #178
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    Laf is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    The worst of it is I don't know where my game is going awry. I seem to almost always have a short stack going into the later levels (50/100 onwards). Am I playing too tight early on and folding too many marginal opportunities to build up some chips? Am I just getting unlucky? What the hell is wrong?!?
    It's probably a combination of both. If you're playing too tight and not getting cards it's so hard to build a stack early on. Of course the problem then is if you get to the later stages and you're short stacked, you can't afford to get unlucky as it usually ends up with you being knocked out.

    Confidence can play a big part too. If you're not confident in your game it can be very difficult to make the right decisions. That certainly applies to me. I recently had a run of 27 SnG's without a win and only cashed in 4 of those over a period of about three weeks. As bad runs go I'm not sure how it compares to others but it felt pretty bad to me!. I could only put it down to a lack of confidence. After a small run of bad results I was eager to get back to winning ways and probably tried to force things a bit too much. A few more bad results and my confidence was down and I was making bad decision after bad decision. By the end of it I didn't know what I was doing and felt like I was guessing the whole time.

    I'm not sure if you'd consider yourself to be 'running bad' right now but you might find these tips from Chris Ferguson useful.
    http://www.chrisferguson.com/tip/132/Running+Bad
    http://www.chrisferguson.com/tip/140...+Money+in+Good

    Ħuʍop ǝpısdn sı pɹɐoqʎǝʞ ʎɯ


  29. #179

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    Cheers Laf. I think I am on a natural downswing made worse by some of my own plays, if you see what I mean. I will read those Chris Ferguson articles in the morning to gee me up for the day's play



  30. #180

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    4th September 2009
    I was thinking earlier this morning that were I to go through each elimination it could get quite time consuming if I am playing 100+ tourneys a week. That said though I think it is a useful exercise, for now at least, so I am going to continue with it. And that means I need to go through yesterday afternoon's events before I can start today's play.

    Yesterday afternoon was very much one of two (unequal) halves. I got 10 more events played with a break after the first four as the cat came up when I had these STTs on the go and demanded feeding. I managed to stall her until I had played out those four but it meant I couldn't start new ones up as existing ones finished. With her fed I managed to get another six STTs in so let's see how it went.

    1. Eliminated in 3rd
    I had got a little lucky 5-handed when I had 76s and was forced to shove my remaining 860 in with blinds at 75/150 only to get called by AQo. I had straight-flush outs and a pair on the flop but didn't improve on the turn or river but then again neither did my opponent and I doubled up. I kept a steady stack for a good while then, neither threatening the chip lead nor looking set for elimination really and secured another double up 3-handed with AQs v A9s. By now the stacks were starting to level out with me on around 3500, another on 4000 and the chip leader on 6000. I got AQo in the SB and with blinds at 100/200/a25 (so we all had playable stacks) I raised to 800 after the button limped. The BB folded and the button called. The flop came 6-6-3 two suited and I made a continuation bet of 1000 into a pot of 1875. The button min-raised to 2000 and I didn't fancy it any more. I was behind to a lot of hands so figured I was best saving my chips for a better spot as I still had a stack of around 8xBB. There must be another double up later on that's not in my database for some reason as my stack was just under 3000 when I busted. I have A8o on the button with around 7xBB and shoved. The BB called with AQo dominating me, paired his Queen on the flop and busted me. I think that's fair.

    2. Eliminated in 3rd
    I had been struggling to build or even maintain any sort of stack but had folded my way into the money, basically. I was short stacked (as always) with 1333 and blinds of 100/200 when I got QTo on the button and decided it was good enough to push with. In it all went but the BB had other ideas and called with pocket 5s, which held up easily to eliminate me. I had to make a move at some point else I was going to run desperately short of fold equity. Antes were to be introduced in a few minutes so I needed to try and gather some chips and figured a broadway hand was good enough given the utter trash I had been dealt to that point. It was just a shame I ran into 55 but I had at least made the money.

    3. Eliminated in 2nd
    Things got short-handed fairly quickly, and without me getting involved much. In fact we were four-handed when I started to win some hands and even then I had a stack of 1565 so hadn't suffered too much from the blinds even though I was below an average stack. I took a big chunk of chips and eliminated the short stack with AKo against A6o with blinds at 75/150 then next hand added another couple of thousand to my stack with AQ0 against 94o (I know!). That evened the stacks out a bit with the chip leader on around 5050, me on 4700 and the short stack on 3750. A largely uneventful period of me folding and stealing a few hands followed as my plan was to sit back and play tight and see what happened. On the next key hand it was folded to me in the SB with K2s with 16xBB in my stack so I raised to 3xBB and got called by the BB who was also the big stack. The flop came 3-2-2 so I checked looking to trap him and double up. He bet 1400, overbetting the pot, and I called. The turn was a King completing my full house. Again I checked. He bets 2200 and I call all-in for my last 1200. It has worked perfectly. He shows 55, the river is a 7 and I take a nice pot to double up. Stacks are now around 6500 (me), 4000 and 3000. More folding and stealing as I revert to playing tight again. It works and the other two clash on a few occasions and eventually one is eliminated to leave us heads-up, although I have a 2:1 chip deficit due to my previous tight play. I start strongly and bring the chip lead down to around 6:4 before I am eliminated with A8o. He min-raises from the BB and I call. The flop is 5-6-5 and I bet 600 (into a pot of 850) which he calls. The turn is an Ace and I figure I am now certainly ahead and bet out again, 1000 which he calls. The river is a King. There are no straights or flushes on the board so I bet 2200 on my Ace. He min-raises putting me all-in so I call. No point folding now. He shows K5o for a flopped set and rivered full house. Ouch. But these things happen I suppose. I don't mind how I played this hand, and he played it well to trap me like that I suppose.

    4. Eliminated in 3rd
    My fourth successive cash of the afternoon and fifth of the day - I was on a roll. I don't have the end of this tourney in my database - really not sure why - but it looks like I was again slightly fortunate to have made it to third by folding. Ah, remove hole card filter - that'll help! Ahh, I had been stealing to keep my head above water and even though I had the shortest stack it was over 10xBB. The button raised to 450 with blinds at 75/150 so I shoved over the top with 88 in the BB. The button called with TT and I lost, as one expects to in those situations. A risk worth taking I feel, just unlucky to run into a bigger pair instead of overcards maybe.

    5. Eliminated in 6th
    The run of cashes comes to an end with the first tourney of the second part of the afternoon session. I had won one hand before this point with AQo continuation betting into a board of 2-A-7 all of the same suit when I didn't have any of that suit. And that was it. So it was with a stack of 1010 and blinds of 50/100 that I went out, annoyingly with AKo dominating my opponent's A8o but he flopped an 8. Right move, wrong result.

    6. Eliminated in 4th
    Nothing much doing for ages and I was forced into a risky double up 7-handed with J9s (my stack was 665 and blinds at 75/150) when I rivered a 9 against a dominating JTs. Phew. The blinds ate up a portion of that stack quite quickly as I folded trash hand after trash hand and got it all in again with Q7s on the button facing AJo in the BB. I flopped a 7 and survived. I then got AQo twice in successive hands, the first time executing a good steal of 500 chips but the second time losing 1915 when I got called in two places (TT and A6o). Whoops. I was down to 400 chips now or just 2xBB. I got a double up with QQ but it was just prolonging the inevitable and I went out with 65s against AA and A4s. Oh well. I think I was doomed from a pretty early stage to be honest.

    7. Eliminated in 6th
    I was desperately short-stacked (how many times have I written that recently?) with blinds at 50/100 (I had 595). Mid-position raised to 300 and got a caller so I shoved from the SB expecting a call from both players but with 55 and my stack as it was I had to take a shot. The original raiser called but the limper curiously folded. I was up against QJo and made trips on the flop. He had flush draw outs on the river but they missed, thankfully and I nearly tripled up. I managed to steal a couple more hands but not many and the blinds were fierce with a stack my size. I only had 735 left when I was forced in with a weak hand, J9o, as the blinds were 100/200. The SB called with AJo and the expected happened. Another short stack disaster for me - I just had nothing to work with in the early stages so when the blinds get to 50/100 or so I am losing big chunks of my stack each orbit. Maybe I need to make stands earlier... Just looked over my hands till the first double up and I can't see any opportunities I missed. I got a free look from the BB first hand and flopped a straight but in trying to trap I let a flush draw get there on the river and lost 100 chips (could have been much worse) and two hands later I lost 180 with AKo. The only other decent hand I had was 99 and it was heavily raised pre-flop so I didn't fancy it so early on in the game. Every hand was trash after that so I was destroyed by the blinds.

    8. Eliminated in 3rd
    I had a good result on the third level with QQ against 99 winning a nice pot to give me around 2250chips (45xBB). That was nibbled at by rising blinds before I was forced into another double up attempt with KJo on the button. I shoved for 1440 (blinds 75/150) and the SB called with KK. Uh-oh. The board came 6-J-J-4-5 and I was still alive, somehow! Fold & steal, fold & steal - you know the story by now. But soon the stealing died out as I lost all opportunity to steal with anything worth attempting it with. I lost over a third of my stack (by survived the bubble) during this period of folding and went out shoving A9o over the top of a standard raise from the button. He called with AQo and won the kicker battle. I didn't have much of a stack for this hand (11xBB) but there was a dominating stack (who eliminated me) and I was trying to target the other stack of 14xBB but this A9o opportunity was too good to miss so I had to take a risk.

    9. Eliminated in 2nd
    I lost nearly a third of my stack on the fourth hand with AKo when he flushed on the river and didn't really make much back for a while. In fact I was down to 910 with blinds of 50/100 when I went for the big double up with AKo. A shorter stack called with AQo (good) and the BB thought the odds were good enough for J9s. At least his cards were live I suppose. In fact the BB caught two of his suit on the flop to give me a scare but my hand held up all the way and put me back in contention with an average stack again. Blinds lost and stolen, blah blah. Four-handed UTG limps for 200 and I check my option with Q4o. It's a lousy hand but if he lets me see a flop I'll take it. 6-K-T two suited is no help so I check it. He checks behind. The turn is 4h putting three hearts on the board. I have a pair of fours and a draw to a Queen high flush so I bet 200 (min-bet) which he calls. I still have no idea where I stand in the hand but he's shown no strength so far. Another 6 comes on the river. I check-call his bet of 600 after much thought as I only have 6s and 4s so I am praying he missed everything and is trying it on with an overcard. I don't think he has a King or Ten from how he played the hand and calling and losing leaves me with 5xBB so I can attempt to double up in the next few hands. He does indeed just have an overcard, A8s in fact and I win over half my stack. Lots more folding and tight play while the bubble bursts before I double up with AKo against 97o (!). He shoved from the SB when the button folded and I made the easy call. He had me covered but was now crippled when I pair the flop and turn. I put him out of his misery two hands later when my A6o flukily held up against his much better hand of AKo as I paired my 6 on the flop. The stacks were 5000 (me) against 8500 at the start of heads up but I lost 1225 on the first hand heads-up with a combo draw that missed on the turn and was facing too much action to risk busting with. We swapped blinds for a while without seeing many flops (6 in total from 30 hands). I went out with JTo getting it all in pre-flop against A9o. I had 15xBB and called his all-in re-raise which was perhaps a little rash. I should have folded here - I made a mistake. He had a 3:1 chip lead though so I would have had some work to do, but I should have kept myself in the game and tried to fight it out.

    10. Eliminated in 8th
    I'd played tight and folded all the tripe hands but it all went wrong with QQ on the third level (25/50). I raised to 3xBB, got min-raised to 250 with someone else going all-in for a further 20 chips. I called the 120 and the re-raiser called the last 20 so 3 of us saw the 4-4-7 flop. The pot is 835 and I bet 450 into it with my overpair to see where I stand. No-one is going to play a hand with a 4 or 7 in like that pre-flop are they? Unless they have 44 or 77 specifically, and the former is very unlikely now. I get a call. Hmmm. The turn is a bad card - a 7. That's two pair on board (and a flush draw) but they are both lower than my Queens and if I don't think anyone is playing a 4 or 7 pre-flop then I am in good shape, right? I push my last 665 in and get a call. Yes, he has KK in the hole and takes the side pot but loses the main pot to A6s when the 5 on the river completes the flush. I am out though. QQ v KK - harsh, but it happens.

    I have 24 STTs recorded at this level ($5) and have lost $15 despite cashing 10 times (ITM 41.67%). I'm simply not finishing first often enough. I only have 1 win, 3 second places and 6 thirds. I need to try and go for the win more rather than just surviving the bubble but to do that I need to gather some chips early on. I still don't know if I am missing too many spots to make chips early on or are just being dealt unplayable hands (or potentially playable hands in unplayable situations). Time will tell I guess, and it's something I need to keep my eye out for.

    Now let's get some more poker under my belt shall we?



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