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Thread: mathare's Poker Diary

  1. #211

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    2nd October 2009 (part two)
    If anyone can tell me what the hell I am doing wrong in this game and what I have to do to have a profitable session then I am all ears, seriously.

    You've probably guessed that this afternoon didn't go well. In fact I took the unusual step of cutting the session short as I was going to play on for another hour or so but not after some of the hands I have just been through. I'm not tilting as such but I needed to shut the tables down in case I did tilt off the rest of the few chips I did have left after a session that cost me $36.71.

    Unbelievable is the best word to describe it really. I was being drawn out on so often despite protecting my hand to the best of my ability. I was building pots when I was ahead and having them snatched away from me either by runner runner draws or the miracle river cards. Several times I was beaten by the only hand that could have beaten me. I'd have the second nuts and be up against the stone cold nuts, regardless of how unlikely it was given the play so far in the hand. I don't fear monsters when I play but I have seen far too many recently.

    The one hand that really got me this afternoon was one I will post up shortly. I am dealt QQ and flop a full house on a board of J-J-Q. I'm building a wonderful pot here as the board comes four to a flush and I am getting action. On the river betting round I am heads up facing raises and then I start to wonder what he has. I think he's overplaying Aces or something, probably including the flush Ace and before I put the final bet in I think "Unless he has quad Jacks but...nah, how unlikely is that?" Guess what he had?

    How much more of this can I take? I need confidence in my game to play properly and I am trying hard to retain that but the last few days have been hard to take. Just under a month ago I sat down with a bankroll of roughly 300 big bets to try and increase that to 500. Instead I have pretty much halved it, and the trend is definitely downwards at the minute. Part of me is telling me to 'borrow' from my sportsbook account at Bet365 to boost the poker bankroll and I will make it back in time. Part of me is thinking of getting off the iPoker network and going to Full Tilt and some of me is considering jacking it all in for good.

    I'll take this evening off and weigh things up...

    Overall Stats
    Hands: 8543
    VPIP: 10.91
    PFR: 5.75
    AF: 1.95
    BB/100: -1.52
    Profit: -$13.21

    Race to $200
    Hands: 8020
    Profit: -$152.86
    BB/100: -1.91
    Hands Required to Complete Challenge: N/A

    If I saw those stats for one of my opponents they would be straight on my buddy list and I would be looking to join whatever tables they were sat at!

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  2. #212

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    Read it and weep. I nearly wept at the end of the hand - and nearly puked too!

    GAME #1873694381: Texas Hold'em L $0.50/$1 2009-10-02 15:19:35
    Table Nawalgarh
    Seat 1: Jvatoly ($23.97 in chips)
    Seat 2: Irbisa ($22.96 in chips)
    Seat 3: alavala ($59.48 in chips)
    Seat 4: Andrey6262 ($15.13 in chips)
    Seat 5: mux777 ($34.67 in chips)
    Seat 7: Zmitrok ($23.00 in chips)
    Seat 8: bitangar ($27.20 in chips)
    Seat 9: terrorwrist ($29.91 in chips) DEALER
    Jvatoly: Post SB $0.25
    Irbisa: Post BB $0.50
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to terrorwrist [CQ HQ]
    alavala: Raise (NF) $1.00
    Andrey6262: Fold
    mux777: Fold
    Zmitrok: Fold
    bitangar: Fold
    terrorwrist: Raise (NF) $1.50
    Jvatoly: Fold
    Irbisa: Call $1.00
    alavala: Call $0.50
    *** FLOP *** [DJ SJ SQ]
    Irbisa: Check
    alavala: Check
    terrorwrist: Bet $0.50
    Irbisa: Raise (NF) $1.00
    alavala: Call $1.00
    terrorwrist: Raise (NF) $1.50
    Irbisa: Call $0.50
    alavala: Raise (NF) $2.00
    terrorwrist: Call $0.50
    Irbisa: Call $0.50
    *** TURN *** [S3]
    Irbisa: Check
    alavala: Bet $1.00
    terrorwrist: Raise (NF) $2.00
    Irbisa: Fold
    alavala: Raise (NF) $3.00
    terrorwrist: Raise (NF) $4.00
    alavala: Call $1.00
    *** RIVER *** [S4]
    alavala: Bet $1.00
    terrorwrist: Raise (NF) $2.00
    alavala: Raise (NF) $3.00
    terrorwrist: Raise (NF) $4.00
    alavala: Call $1.00
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot $25.75 Rake $1.00
    alavala: Shows [HJ CJ]
    alavala: wins $25.75



  3. #213

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    Painful painful painful! I cant fault any of your plays and even if the possibilty of him having Jacks occurs you could not lay that down. He could just have easily had AQ, AJ, QJ, or something like that and raised you too. I can't say much else apart from sorry.

    Keep going. Don't think about changing yet. Even if you have to write off thi entire $300 bankroll keep going as long as you feel you are learning/growing your game. My theory is that if you're not winning then you need to be learning something. If you're not doing either is when you start to consider a change. Bad beats don't count...unless you consider learning that luck is a B*tch!



  4. #214

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazybadger View Post
    Painful painful painful! I cant fault any of your plays and even if the possibilty of him having Jacks occurs you could not lay that down. He could just have easily had AQ, AJ, QJ, or something like that and raised you too. I can't say much else apart from sorry.
    As you say he could have had lots of hands in that situation, including AA or KK for a pair bigger than top pair on the board, a Jack in his hand for trips, QJ for the smaller full house and even the nut flush and be overplaying them. JJ is so unlikely in that situation as it has to be the only remaining two Jacks in the deck so there is only one way he can make his hand from all the possible starting hands he could hold that there is no way I can lay it down. I can't even dial back the aggression really as I want to build a big pot for the times I am ahead and he is overplaying a worse hand. It was just painfully unlucky.

    Keep going. Don't think about changing yet. Even if you have to write off thi entire $300 bankroll keep going as long as you feel you are learning/growing your game. My theory is that if you're not winning then you need to be learning something. If you're not doing either is when you start to consider a change. Bad beats don't count...unless you consider learning that luck is a B*tch!
    I had a good think about this last night. I have just enough in my bankroll at present to fire up 6 tables simultaneously buying in for $25 on each but if I have a losing session today then I probably won't be able to play 6 tables at once with my normal buy in without topping up my account. So I then have to choose between playing fewer tables, buying in for less or dropping down a level to $0.25/0.50. Good bankroll management says I should take the latter option and to be honest it may not be a bad idea. I'm not earning a living from poker by any means so it doesn't matter much that my potential winnings are reduced, what matters is that I learn to start beating the game again and preserve what I have left of my bankroll. It's not a big sum of money, I could lose it and redeposit to start a new bankroll but I don't really want to, I want to prove I can beat the micro stakes games. If I drop down and play 1000 hands a day (which is my target) then working on a profit rate of 1BB/100 (which is reasonable I think) I should be able to step back up to $0.50/$1 in a couple of weeks. If I can't beat that level in that time, say I'm not showing a profit after 15000 hands, then I seriously have to rethink what I am doing and how I am approaching the game.

    So that's the plan for now...



  5. #215

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    Sounds reasonable. I hope it works for you. I always wonder how different the game is at the different levels. The problem could be that your game is actually suited to even higher levels...or maybe you can grind out easy profits in the $0.25/0.50 level. It's so hard to tell...



  6. #216

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    3rd October 2009
    A quick in-play update for you to show how badly things continue to go for me. I have hit a straight flush against a full house to net a big pot and the nut full house against a lesser full house to drag in another big pot but I am still behind for the session because I keep betting/raising to protect my vulnerable hands but draws just keep getting there to beat me :(

    I'm facing a drop to $0.25/0.50 for sure



  7. #217

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    3rd October 2009 (part two)
    That's another session I have called an early end to after a bad beat as I can't take it any more, I really can't.

    I'm not one of those who screams that online poker is fixed and that site X has it in for me and you see more bad beats on the river at site Y than anywhere else unlike others you see posting on the internet. I understand statistics, probability and the laws of large numbers. I realise that seeing more hands in the internet in a shorter space of time than one would playing live means that one will see more freakish hands due to the random nature of the deal. In fact as the deal is more random online than live one may expect to see more freaki hands online even without the speed difference and the ability to multi-table. But sometimes I do wonder what this game is up to and how much the random nature of it and variance hate me and like watching me suffer.

    I dragged in two $20+ pots in this session and yet finished down $31.57 in just over two hours. I had planned to play for 3+ hours but there was no way I could go on like that so when I got a big hand cracked by trash AGAIN I stopped posting the blinds and shut the tables down when the blinds reached me. The hand that did for me this afternoon was AA cracked by 76o. I have AA in middle position. UTG limps, I raise, the SB re-raises, the limper calls, I cap and they both call. The flop comes 4-7-K rainbow. SB checks, UTG bets and I raise - they both call. The turn is a 5. SB checks, UTG bets and I just call. My raise was cold-called on the flop and neither of them have shown any signs of getting away from their hands so I just call to see what the river brings. SB calls also. The river is a 3 and puts a three flush on the board. SB checks, UTG bets and I call thinking my Aces are probably good but I'm not sure. 76o for a flopped pair that backed into a straight on the river. He had second board pair with no kicker on the flop and put in $2 on the flop with that hand - wtf!?!

    Other noteworthy hands from this session include:
    1. QQ beaten by AJo on a board of 9-4-5-3-2. He had nothing but overcards on the flop and a gutshot straight draw on the turn. I'd raised UTG pre-flop, he'd reraised and I called. He bet out on the flop, I raised and he re-raised. The turn and river betting was him betting and me calling. I may not have bet or raised enough to protect but I got the impression from the first two rounds of betting that I was up against a decent hand, and one that wasn't going anywhere regardless of how often I raised.

    2. AA beaten by 62o which flopped bottom pair and turn into trips. He limped in early and I raised. The BB and limper called. The flop is 3-7-2 rainbow. BB bets, the limper calls and I raise. BB folds, limper calls. Turn is another 2. Early limper bets, I raise and he calls. On the river (K) he check-calls my bet and shows me 62o. Jesus Christ!

    3. QQ beaten by 99 when he made trips on the river. Early position raises, middle position raises all-in and the button caps. I cold-call from the SB knowing there can be no more action, the BB folds and the early raiser calls the extra two bets. I bet out on the flop of 8-T-A two clubs to see where I stand. It's called round. The turn is a 3 and it gets checked round. I fear they may be a raggy Ace out there so don't bet again. The river looks like a safe 9 so I bet out (I could have checked here but when it was checked round on the turn I thought there might not be an Ace and my Queens could be good). Early raises and the pre-flop capper raises. I call and he shows me 99. The all-in raiser had KJo so I was ahead till the damn river. Again.

    4. 99 beaten by J2s. There's one limper and I raise from the SB. The BB folds, the limper calls. The flop is 9-5-2 with two clubs. I bet out as I don't want to give a free card to a club draw and thinking I could take this pot down now as it's heads-up and unless he has two clubs, two big overcards or an overpair I won't get any action. He calls. The turn is 8c putting three to a flush on the board. I bet, he raises and alarm bells ring. Has he got it or is he representing? I call and check-call the river (another damn club). He flopped a flush draw which completed on the turn. There was nothing I could have done to protect that hand, which is hugely frustrating.

    So all this got me thinking - bankroll management says I should step down now having lost over half my bankroll but it seems clear to me that I am being beaten by hands that shouldn't even have seen the flop so should I be actually playing at a higher level where there are fewer muppets? There is certainly something to that argument but I'd need to redeposit to have a bankroll to take on the higher stakes and if my luck continues like this then I am losing twice as much money and I can't handle that.

    So it seems like the choices are step down or step out, give up the game and follow other money-making ventures. The good thing about poker though is it takes up time and I can see instant results. It's not betting system research where one can spend hours investigating angles only to find they aren't profitable, or they could make a slight profit over many weeks or months. The results with poker are instant and there for all to see. On the other hand I can't lose money investigating betting systems!

    It's time for a good long, hard think about things.

    Overall Stats
    Hands: 9203
    VPIP: 10.90
    PFR: 5.78
    AF: 1.93
    BB/100: -1.76
    Profit: -$161.78

    Race to $200
    Hands: 8680
    Profit: -$184.43
    BB/100: -2.12
    Hands Required to Complete Challenge: N/A

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  8. #218

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    4th October 2009
    It's clear that the $0.50/$1 limit cash games aren't working for me and that something needs to be done. It's not so clear what that something should be though.

    Poker isn't exactly in my blood but it is a game I love to bits and struggle to let go of. I thought of uninstalling all the poker rooms from my PC yesterday but then thought that was an over-reaction and left them as they were. I have enough self-control to stay away from the tables while I sort things out, I think!

    So what am I to do instead? Yesterday evening I started working on some football systems I had been mulling over for months, if not longer than that. These are potentially good ideas so let's see if that potential can be realised or whether I should just forget about them. If they are good then there is cash to be made from them, both by following them and potentially commercialising them in some format so let's see what lies down that path.

    I also need to think about what has gone wrong for me with poker as I don't want to shut that door permanently. The way I see it is I am being beaten a lot of times by hands that shouldn't be there. So why are those hands still there at the end? Why are these players having the opportunity to beat me? I should welcome hands like 62o playing when I have AA as I am a huge favourite. So am I still the victim of cursed fortunes, experiencing the dark side of natural variance or am I doing something badly wrong? I am prety sure I am doing some things wrong when I play, I know my game isn't perfect, but are these mistakes enough to be giving me the results I am getting? I think there is more reading to be done, and more playing but at what stakes? Should I drop down, stay at the same stakes and hope my luck changes, step up to (hopefully) reduce the number of muppets playing or even change sites? I need to seriously think about these things, but if I need to either create a new bankroll or boost the one I already have (or what's left of it) then I need to bring in some more money from somewhere, and hopefully the football systems I am working on will help there.

    My long terms goals are to bring in cash from reliable football systems, then add a poker income stream (that's income, not additional outgoings) and finally build up a portfolio of my own horse racing systems. I haven't set timescales for all of this but I would like to think that within a couple of years this is all possible if I put the work in.

    I have also been thinking today about my limit hold'em education. Are the books I have the right books? SSHE is considered the bible but it talks about generally loose games and that's not what I am experiencing online really. Has the game changed since the book was written? Are the iPoker games atypical and I should be playing somewhere with more US players such as Full Tilt? Should I join one of the video training sites to pick up more tips about the online game? Is limit poker the right game to play? I have always thought of it as the game in which to grind out a profit, and it is my game of choice for multi-tabling, but can I learn to beat micro-stakes NLHE cash games and build up a bankroll that way? I got Harrington on Cash Games vol.2 last christmas and haven't read it yet as I don't have volume 1 so maybe I should invest in that, read both one after the other and take on the micro-stakes NLHE games to see how I do.

    So much to think about. But for now poker is off my reading list as I have started to read a number of non-poker books to keep my mind off the game somewhat and football systems are my main focus as I look to develop that as an income stream. So don't expect many updates to this diary for a while as I plan to stay away from the tables for a little while while I regroup. Incidentally my health has been suffering of late, and deteriorating as it happens, so I wonder if that is having more of an impact than I realise on my game. Perhaps when that improves so will my poker.

    A lot to think about over the coming weeks then...



  9. #219

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    22nd October 2009
    Over two weeks since I last wrote anything in here but last night I got a phonecall from PokerStars about the bonus I am/was working towards. They wanted to update me on how it was going and ask why I wasn't playing so much (ie at all) any more. We had a chat about that and they offered to up my VIP status back to SilverStar till the end of the month (which doesn't mean much really). They also added another chunk of bonus fund allocation to my account which means when I have worked this one off (around $82) I have another one of over $100 to work off too and I have till around February to get the necessary points I think it is.

    It's slightly tempting but I need to decide first whether I am in the right mindset to go back to the tables. I haven't done everything I wanted to do during my break from the game yet, not by a long chalk, but I am tempted to dabble again at some point in the not too distant future...



  10. #220

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    30th October 2009
    I had been putting off even considering a return to the tables until I had got a number of other things out the way, including various updates to my betting recirds spreadsheet. Thankfully that is all now done and I can think about where poker fits into my plans again.

    It's been just over a week since PokerStars got in touch about upgrading my VIP status and adding the additional bonus funds to my account. So it seems like I ought to give them another chance doesn't it? My overall win rate is lower there than at Bet365 but for some reason I just enjoy playing there more. Or at least I think I do. I ought to look back through my old diary entries and check that really hadn't I?... I prefer the software there to the iPoker software, that's for sure. And after all I have only played cash games there for a couple of weeks, and that coincided with part of my evil downswing so I really do think they deserve another chance. Right, that's the poker room settled but what about the game and limits?

    It's gotta be fixed limit poker, that's what I know and what I am most comfortable with when playing cash games (which suit me better than tourneys at this time). I have a bankroll of just $72.46 at PokerStars and I don't plan on depositing again. So I need to work with what I have got. PokerStars has games at $0.10/$20 and $0.25/$0.50 and there seems to be quite a few active tables of both at present. Playing $0.25/0.50 would give me a bankroll of under 150BB and I like to buy-in for around 25BB on each table. Therefore playing 6 tables at that limit is my limit and that's all my bankroll on the felt at once. That's BAD bankroll management so I need to step down to $0.10/$0.20. My bankroll gives me over 350BB at that level which is a lot of play. If I can build my roll up to $100 then I can mix in some $0.25/$0.50 tables and gradually increase the blend in favour of the higher stakes as my bankroll increases until I am playing all $0.25/$0.50 and building my bankroll through that.

    Sounds like a plan

    But one thing does concern me. I was getting caned when I last played cash and thought the low stakes were a factor didn't I? Muppets chasing hands they had only a small chance of winning with yet getting there? Right. So now is the time to learn from those mistakes and correct them. Protect hands where I can but recognise those cases where I can't and betting would just be building a pot for someone else to take away. It's time to see if I have learned anything and whether I really can make anything from the game long-term. It's time to settle into a positive mindset and value bet the fish - starting this afternoon!



  11. #221

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    30th October 2009 (part two)
    Well that didn't quite go as I had hoped

    I started with four tables and built up to six as I got back into the swing of it but at no stage in the session was I ahead. I obviously paid the blinds at the start and that was the closest I ever got to being even. I finished the session (which lasted over three and half hours and took in 1019 hands) down $5.57. That's equivalent to -2.73BB/100 which I am a bit disappointed with. Oh well.

    I like to think I know myself quite well. For instance I know I am a worrier, a thinker and a planner. I'm risk averse. I know I try to resist the urge to run before I can walk but sometimes I get obsessed with a plan or idea and run with it for a short while only to find it doesn't work as I had thought or hoped and change it. Maybe I don't let things get into the long run and change plans too readily. Or maybe I know myself well enough to know when things must change. It is with all of this in mind that I want to discuss the fallout from today's session as it has made me realise a few things.

    Let's not beat about the bush - I didn't play very well this afternoon. That's not to say I played badly but I can play a lot better. I was on my 'B' game at best. Why? Because it didn't mean anything to me. I make a loose call and it costs me a few pence - so what? The stakes prevented me from focusing on the game. Yes, I had six tables going so I had action most of the time but there was still a fair bit of downtime that allowed me to surf the web, look up stats in PokerTracker and so on. I was able to keep a good eye on my frequent player points and see the rate at which they were accumulating. In short my head wasn't in the game, hence not playing my 'A' game.

    What can I do about this? I can play at higher stakes. Right. That means a larger bankroll and mistakes costing me more but should focus the mind more. And if it doesn't? I lose more money, faster. Not good. It also means I need to deposit more at the chosen poker room which means dipping into my bank account and I am trying to preserve my capital where possible as I no longer have a regular income. Therefore this isn't the best idea. How else can I improve my game? I could play more tables. Yes, but if I don't give a toss about the stakes I am just throwing more money away so that alone is not a solution. I could slap myself hard until I force myself to play the game properly and take it seriously. I could, but I don't think it would work, not in the long-term certainly. I could try a different game, such as Omaha, as I will then be forced to think about the game as I can't play on auto-pilot. I could play no-limit hold'em for similar reasons. But suppose I can't maintain my focus there - I just lose more, faster again.

    That all sounds rather negative doesn't it? And with good reason I think. Think about the stakes I played today. A good session will see me win maybe $10. Whoopee! It's hardly a significant sum is it when I have a lot more than that on the horses and football. The potential profit and losses from a poker session, given the stakes I ought to be playing as dictated by my bankroll, are trivial compared to my horse racing and sports betting. Not that either of those are particularly large stakes but they are in comparison to poker. And they are a lot less effort too. Put the horse racing bet on, wait a few minutes and that's job done. Not so with poker. I have to sit, think, work, put in some effort and still only get a tiny return. I have to wonder if it is worth my time.

    Poker is not so much in my blood as in my heart. I love the game and I enjoy playing it, although not as much as I used to. I can't give the game up and never go back to it but I think I need to take a serious break from it and drop it from my long- to medium-term plans. I can always add it back in later if that becomes a good idea but for now it's best to forget about poker as a potential revenue stream and concentrate on other things instead.

    I know how indecisive (amongst other things) this makes me seem. I say I am making a comeback, have one poor session and spit my dummy out and give it all up, right? In a way, yes, but in so many respects that's not the case at all. This afternoon has made me see the light, as it were, and it doesn't shine down on the poker tables. I don't have the bankroll, or the proper focus and attitude, to play at the stakes that would make it worth my while considering playing. I think $0.50/$1 or $1/$2 is the lowest level I could really face and give the game the respect and dedication it deserves and warrants but I am not ready for that. Maybe I will be in a few months, maybe not for a couple of years but I am not at present so I need to stop trying to force it. Square pegs and round holes spring to mind.

    So that's it from me for a while. I will return at some point, I'm sure, but I don't know when and at which tables. Time will tell I guess. But for now giving up for a while feels more right than coming back from my previous hiatus did. I have many other projects that are a much better use of my time so hopefully they will start to bear fruits in the coming months and reduce any temptation to return to the electronic baize before I am truly ready to do so.



  12. #222

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    Man you're not very good at poker ain't ya matthew. get some balls and start playing a decent amount of tables. I've made $35k this year 24 tabling $16 9mans and it's very easy money you looooooooozzzzzzeerrrrrrrrrrrrr :splapme

    Edited by mathare



  13. #223

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    I assume that was written under the heavy influence of alcohol PS

    Chance of you making 4000 posts before getting banned must be slim if you keep dishing out insults and using foul language like that



  14. #224

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    Consider your infraction carefully before posting again, Profit Seeker.

    Please take a look at:
    My Photostream on Flickr



  15. #225

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    9th December 2009
    I did something very strange today - I played poker.

    The last couple of days I had been reading Victoria Coren's new book (For Richer, For Poorer) which is a damn good read incidentally and just happens to be about her life in poker. Hands from the EPT she won a couple of years back are interspersed throughout the main body of the book and it really got me thinking about the game and how I ought to get back into it.

    I had thought about playing SnGs again but then I don't find those all that convenient at times. I like the fact I can start and end cash game sessions when I choose to - that suits my current situation so much better. I don't get that much time to myself these days, at least not during the day time and not time I could spend playing poker as we have a cat who can be quite needy at times. So even though I am at home all day I don't have that much poker time as she will come up and shout at me until I give her the attention she craves - difficult when I am multi-tabling on PokerStars at the same time. I could play in the evenings I guess but since I am at home all day now I have decided to try to spend my evenings with the missus else I'd be on my computer around 15 hours a day, every day! Anyway, with not that much time to play I figured cash games would be better as I can dip in and out, and recently the cat has tended to leave me alone from mid-afternoon onwards, preferring to sleep for a few hours instead so I can have some piece and quiet. Today I used that opportunity to fire up the cash tables at 'Stars.

    My bankroll is a fraction of what it used to be and I hadn't played for about 6 weeks prior to this afternoon so I thought I'd take it easy with four limit tables - playing $0.10/$0.20 as I said I would to rebuild my 'roll. Update my 'Stars client, log in, and sit at the tables - all good so far. Then I start posting blinds and playing some hands and it's downhill from there. I played loose, sloppy limit poker. Not loose-aggressive either, loose-bad poker. I was calling quite a few (OK, a lot of) small bets because, well, they were small and I might make a hand. Pot odds - what are they? I had planned to sit down, play tight against the fish and make a small profit. That plan went out the window early when I forgot (!) that hands like KJo are not part of a tight strategy. I was seeing short-handed flops with pocket pairs out of position and all sorts of crap like that. I couldn't lose much doing this as there wasn't much on the table. I was almost playing play money poker but with a small sum of real money. It wasn't pretty but it was very valuable. I learned a lot, about myself more than about the game of poker.

    Why was I playing so terribly? Because the money didn't mean anything, partly. And because I lacked the interest and discipline to play properly. Maybe that's because the money wasn't meaningful too. I had four tables up but there was still a lot of downtime when I wasn't in any of the hands which meant I was off surfing the web and all sorts. What was the incentive to play properly though? A good session might see me win $5 across the four tables - big wow! It's going to be hard to build a bankroll this way so I am demoralised and playing poorly as a result.

    I know the answer. I have known the answer for ages but I have refused to listen to the voice that keeps telling me what it is. But today I did listen and I started up one table of no-limit cash, $0.05/$0.10 stakes so that I didn't have much at risk and so I was exercising sensible bankroll management. I have shied away from the NLHE cash tables for so long because I was crap at them before. All my records show I am rubbish at no-limit cash but part of me still sees it as the holy grail - the form of poker that I must become good at if I am to make any serious money from this game. I have tried before to become good, had a couple of bad results and run away from the tables again. I have dipped my toes in the pool and found the waters too cold so I have run back to the safety of the sunbeds. But I know I must get into that pool at some stage, starting today. One table is a start, and a slow one at that, but I enjoyed it a lot more than the limit poker which I seemed to be playing on auto-pilot. I felt more alive with the no-limit game. It wasn't just bet or raise but bet or raise how much? More decisions to make so more time spent thinking about poker and less time to waste elsewhere on the internet. I know that as a naturally tight player (my whole game goes to pot when I try to play loose and I play almost any two cards in appalling positions) one table won't satisfy my poker-lust and that I will need to multi-table to get the best from it but I can do that. I was playing 3 or limit tables at the same time as that no-limit game today. Four no-limit tables should be easy enough and I hope to get up to 6-8 tables eventually.

    I think it could be the answer to my problems. Playing no-limit cash will finally address the nagging voice telling me I need to get better at that form of the game. I can build a bankroll better through NLHE than I can grinding limit - which just seems dull to me these days. I need to accept that I am a different person and a different poker player to the one who used to happily grind limit poker and make a few quid on the side. I need the gamble of no-limit now. And there will be more significant sums at stake on each hand as I can potentially lose my whole stack any time I play a hand so I should be more focused. There won't be as many small bets to call, knowing that raises can be any size ought to keep me from calling small bets as I won't have the safety net of knowing the raise will also be small.

    At least that's the theory. I feel really good about the (no-limit) session I played this afternoon even though it was less than a hundred hands. I won $4, which isn't bad at those stakes and I felt like I knew what I was doing. Of course, I may spit my dummy out next time I have a bad session and get felted and swear off the no-limit tables but let's hope I can be bigger than that and start on the long road to building a proper bankroll from which I can make a small income from poker.



  16. #226

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    10th December 2009
    I've done it again, I've played cards! As I said I would, four tables of micro-stakes NLHE cash this afternoon and it felt good. I made mistakes on some hands, as I knew I would as this isn't really the format of the game I am used to, but I felt I was learning. I was aggressive at the right sort of times but not excessively so. I raised well and at times was dominating the table enough to get outright bluffs (in position) through.

    It didn't all go my own way though and I lost a big (for these stakes) chunk on three key hands.
    1. I raise to 3xBB with QQ from the BB with two limpers; one folds and the other calls so two of us see the flop. 8-6-7 rainbow - nice. I bet out two-thirds pot and get a call. I don't particularly like the King that comes on the turn but lead out for around two-thirds pot again, and again he calls. The river is an awful 5 completing straights for anyone who had the draw on the flop. I make a strong bet again, get min-raised and call thinking my queens could still be good but in all honestly the pot was getting a bit big to be folding in this spot. He showed me 96o for a flopped bottom pair that rivered the straight. I couldn't get rid of him throughout the hand but it felt at the time like I made a mistake on the river - now I am not so sure looking back at it.
    2. UTG raises to 4xBB, I re-raise to 10xBB when it is folded round to me in the SB. UTG calls so the flop is heads up and comes Q-7-3 rainbow. I lead out for around half-pot. UTG shoves, raising my $1.20 bet to $4.05. This would be a stupid call wouldn't it? I'm probably beaten here and I could let this one go even though I do have a decent starting hand and am only facing one overcard. The move is too strong for me to call isn't it? So why the hell do I call? He shows me KQo and pairs his King on the river just to rub it in after the turn bricked out. I'm really displeased with that call.
    3. The previous hand left me with around 30xBB (from a starting stack of 100xBB) which all went in pre-flop when I called a shove pre-flop. Early position raises to 4XBB, I jack it to 10xBB with AJo in the cut-off, I get 4-bet all-in and call. Why? I'd be racing a pocket pair at best. In fact I am against AKo and lose the pot as the board offers no help whatsoever.

    Those last two hands were played poorly, I can't decide about the first one now - maybe I didn't play it that badly.

    The net result was a loss of $4.05 from 502 hands, meaning I lost the profit I managed to scrape up yesterday. But I'm not that annoyed by that because the important thing to me is that I played another 500 hands and have recorded more table time, more experience at the game and that can only be a good thing. I don't expect to be good at this game right away but I do need to keep plugging away, keep the number of hands played ticking over and hopefully the bottom line will look after itself in time.



  17. #227

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    13th December 2009
    Another 500 hands this afternoon and I am slowly learning, not as fast as I would have liked but learning all the same.

    Today's session was a bit frustrating at times. I was making mistakes early on and not giving the game the thought and concentration it both deserves and requires. You'll see some of this evident in the hand summaries I am going to go through shortly but it also extended to things like not spotting possible flush draws on the board and then being shown the flush at showdown. In the back of my head I wondered why he had come to life but simply dismissed it as him pairing while I had hit two pair and carried on regardless. Nope!

    I wasn't feeling as comfortable and confident at the tables either today. I was puzzled by some of the villains' moves, especially the three-bets. What did they mean when they re-raised me? I had one guy who called a lot of my pre-flop raises and would often raise me when I bet out on the flop, else do something similar on the turn. Was he intentionally floating me or was it just coincidence and he happened to have a hand he liked when I bet out? Is floating too tricky a move for this level? He didn't seem that tricky a player but then with under 100 hands on all my opponents how can you really tell what type of players you are up against? You need several thousand hands so you have seen these players in some situations at least a couple of dozen times before you can get any reliable sort of line on them I'd say.

    There is no doubt about the biggest mistake I made today though, and I want to discuss that before getting into the specifics of hands. It was a mechanical error too - I clicked the wrong button! And not the safe error of checking instead of betting. Not min-raising when I meant to call or raise more. Not even folding the winning hand on the river. I accidentally called an all-in for a little under half a buy-in when I knew I was behind. I sat and thought over the hand for a few seconds when the villain put me all in. I knew I was beaten but mulled it over just in case. Nope, I was behind and drawing way too thin to make this a good call so fold. Yet I clicked the call button! I was fuming with myself after that. He showed me a full house and I had nothing anywhere near competitive and was felted. I closed that table and nearly the other three with it thinking I was in completely the wrong place mentally to play the game but I stick with my three other tables, focused, knuckled down and got on with it. It was very much a session of two halves - before and after this incident - and I am happy with my play in the second half if not the first half. It took a loss of over three-quarters of one buy-in (spread across the four tables) to kick my mind into gear and start playing 'properly' but even then the hands were interspersed with random brain farts that cost me money (as they should, to train me out of them). Bad hands I played this afternoon include:

    1. I have KK in early and raise to 3xBB with one mid-late caller. The flop comes Q-4-A rainbow and I c-bet for around two-thirds pot. The villain makes a big all-in raise making it around 5 times my c-bet. He's got something hasn't he? This isn't a strong straight draw as any draw here is a gutshot effectively, and there are no flush draws for extra outs. He'd have probably re-raised AA and maybe QQ pre-flop so it's not trips. But this is not a straight bluff - he has at least an Ace, probably with a decent but not staggering kicker. I'm not ruling out AQ or even A4 but any Ace has me behind so the kicker is largely irrelevant at this stage. So even though I know I'm beaten I call, and I still can't explain why. It was every early in the session - maybe I wasn't in the zone yet but this was a really poor call, getting married to my hand. The turn and river bricked and he dragged a nice pot.
    2. I get a free look at the flop with 93o from the BB along with three others and make a small check-raise on the ensuing 9-3-8 flop with top and bottom pair. The bettor makes raises it to 3 times my bet, I make a more sizeable 4-bet effectively putting him all in so he raises the rest of his stack and I insta-call having gone this far with my hand. I have him on a flush draw (there are two hearts on board) or perhaps an overpair. Top pair-top kicker is not outside his range either. I don't have 98s in mind but that's what he shows me and takes a good sized pot as the rest of the board offers me no help. Limping with suited connectors into a multi-way pot - why didn't I see that one?
    3. I got rivered with KQs in a heads-up pot against A9o when an Ace hit on the river with the board coming down 5-K-6-6-A. I check-raised the flop and made a half to two-thirds pot bet on the turn followed by a good (size-wise anyway) bet on the river. I don't know what I put him on - I didn't really have a range in mind when I was betting, it was all about my cards not his too - but it should have included the overcard. I just wasn't think about the game properly on this hand.
    4. I raise to 4xBB UTG with 88 and get a single caller in late position. This guy had called quite a few of my pre-flop bets so I had a wide range in mind as he was quite LAG anyway. The flop comes down 7-7-J and I lead out. He makes a solid raise but I don't have a Jack in that many hands for him, or a seven, compared to overcards and hands that have half-hit this flop so I call. I check the 9 on the turn and fold to his strong bet. I have no idea what he had - this is one of those "I don't know what his bets mean" moves I was talking about earlier. I could have got away from this on the flop when he raised but I had a decent pair for that board so it was perhaps worth a look. I think he had something as he didn't seem like much of a bluffer but I still have no idea what he held.

    Other than that there were no big losing hands for me, everything else is under 15 big blinds which could just be a pre-flop raise and a couple of feeler bets on the flop and turn, or pots that I have kept small as I had some showdown value but in the end not enough it seems.

    There is one more hand I was to quickly look at though - one I won.

    I had JJ in early and raised to 4xBB after a limper. The SB and limper call so three of us see a flop of 8-9-5 rainbow. It's checked to me so I make a solid bet and get a caller from the SB. The turn pairs the 8 and this time the SB leads out. I just call fearing potential trips or two pair and trying to exercise pot management. I could have raised to find out how much he really liked his hand but that didn't feel right. The river was a 4 - again he bet out solidly and by now I had to call with the overpair. If he had two pair it was two board pair and I was ahead. 67 for the straight? Nah. There was no possible flush and an 8 was possible but instinct told me I could be good here. He flipped A7s and I dragged the pot. At no stage on the turn and river was I really confident I was ahead. It was partly instinct and partly not thinking and just blustering on that won me this hand. The turn was the time to raise, and if not then then I should have raised on the river. I needed to throw a raise in here I reckon to see if he really had that 8. What's the point of position if you don't use it?

    It's all part of my education as a poker player though.



  18. #228

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    14th December 2009
    I managed to get an earlier than usual start and played for a bit longer than normal so I managed to pack in 777 hands rather than the 500 or so I had planned, but that's certainly no bad thing. It was profitable too, but only to the tune of 75 cents!

    I played well today, for the most part anyway. A couple of questionable decisions that I can recall but that's better than it has been and much better than yesterday. So I will skip straight to the key hands...

    1. I have QQ in the SB. UTG raises to 4xBB and gets two callers and an all-in shove from the button making it $1.80 in total. I have a good hand here and cosider my options. A fold is out of the question despite the 3-bet as it was from the button and any sensible 3-bet would have pot committed him so the shove was the natural move there. I can widen the button's range from a standard 3-bet because of that. I want to get this heads-up with the button if I can which means raising enough to get rid of the UTG raiser. I consider shoving for around $11 but in the end decide a raise to $5 ought to get the job done yet leave me some wiggle room. In the unlikely event that someone 5-bets over the top of that raise I can re-evaluate where I stand in the hand. UTG min-raises to $8.20 and it's back to me. I made a strong 4-bet and have been re-raised - I'm likely beaten here or racing a hand like AKs. It doesn't feel like a good call so I fold my hand. This was my biggest loss of the session - $5 and I didn't even see the flop. The board came down 8-2-4-8-2 and UTG showed Aces. The all-in button didn't show but I made a good fold in hindsight, although possibly an excessive raise in the first place. It was raised to $1.80 and $4 may have signalled the same intentions as a raise to $5.

    2. Six-handed due to players sitting out I raise to 4xBB with KK on the button after UTG limps. The SB shoves making it $2.75 total. I snap call without really thinking, which is not the best move but unless I definitely put him on Aces what am I going to do if not call this bet? You can't win a big pot unless the money goes in at some stage and KK is obviously a really good hand here. The SB shows JJ and I am way ahead...until the flop includes a Jack and the turn and river blank out.

    3. I raise to 3xBB with AJs in middle position and get two callers including the BB. The flop is 7-A-9 with one of my suit. I bet out half-pot when the BB checks and get min-raised. BB folds and I call the raise putting the villain on a flush draw (the flop has two diamonds) or a good Ace so I am not sure whether I am ahead here or not. Tc comes on the turn and I check-call the villain's shove of his remaining 60c which is only around one-third pot. He tables A9 and I don't hit the Jack I need on the river. I was right that he had an Ace put I didn't weight the chances of him having already paired his kicker too as highly as I perhaps should have done.

    4. I raise QQ to 3xBB in middle position and get two callers, including the BB. The flop is 7-4-8 two clubs. The BB makes a small bet which I raise with the overpair looking to shut out flush and straight draws. The other caller makes a big shove raising my $0.80 bet to $5.55 and I fold. I had no idea where I was there hence the raise but that bet was far too big for me to consider calling with just an overpair. He could be drawing but he could equally have had a bigger pair, trips or the made straight. Even if he was drawing I needed to dodge quite a few bullets and couldn't justify the call. Best fold and lose a small pot than call and probably lose a much bigger one.

    5. A suck-out on my part this one. UTG raises to 4xBB and I pop him to 12xBB. It's folded to him and he shoves the other $0.65 from his stack in. I make this an easy call with my JJ but he flips over AA and I am well behind. Eek! The flop contains a Jack and he doesn't get the Ace (or backdoor flush) he needed to beat me. A suck-out but pay back for the KK v JJ hand earlier. Karma.



  19. #229

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    9th January 2010
    To put it politely, I have been fannying around a lot at the poker tables and not really concentrating enough to make a serious go of bringing down any real money from a game I understand and love to bits. Why? I honestly don't know why. But it applies to the type of games I play as well as my play of the actual hands. I have flitted about between various game types from SnGs, turbos, limit cash, no-limit cash and so on, all without settling on a form of the game I am happy to play long-term and give myself a chance of making money at. I hope I can stop that sort of behaviour now.

    I have $57.90 in my PokerStars account (or I did at the start of the day) which give me just over 11 bullets if I play $5+0.50 SnGs which is the form of the game I plan to specialise in from now on. Forget the cash tables and the fact that I'm a wimp if I can't hack it at NLHE cash and all that crap. SnGs are recognised as a good little earner and bankroll builder so that's where you'll find me from now on. I said in my last diary entry that I plan to play less than I was but for something like SnGs and a desire to build a proper 'roll I am going to have to put in a few hours here and there if I want to see any sort of progress, and I most certainly do want to see progress. I may even need that progress to keep me motivated and going in the right direction.

    My first target is to build my current PokerStars roll to $500, and in doing so I will count any bonuses I pick up along the way. I'll play SnGs, at the $5 level, until I can get my bankroll up to $500 and then re-evaluate. I know that's a big roll for SnGs in terms of number of buy-ins but I am looking to prove to myself I can handle the lower stakes tables, build up plenty of experience along the way and show good money management skills too, which means not taking shots too early.

    I played a few pipe-openers this afternoon, winning the first and busting out of the money in the other three leaving me up 50c for the day - woohoo! I spotted dozens of mistakes and weaknesses in my game though, primarily a lack of aggression short-handed in position. I rarely think I can get a hand like 63o through when I am on the button four-handed but I shouldn't be thinking about my cards. It's all about the situation - my opponent's stack sizes and their relative positions, my image at the table, what size raises have been folded to in the past and so on. I need to play regularly to build up my experience and keep the game fresh in my mind. I'd like to get in 15-20 hours a week but we'll have to see how that goes.



  20. #230

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    10th January 2010
    I am a real mix of emotions at present: disappointment, anger, despair, confusion and so on. It has come to my attention that I am playing really poor poker and I am struggling to break out of that and start playing how I know I can play, how I used to play. How can I be playing so badly? Am I just rusty or am I really a crap player who has deluded himself into thinking he's not actually that bad? Is it the games I am playing and the opponents I am playing against putting me off my stride? Is it the poker site I play at? Is it bad luck, pure and simple?

    I said yesterday that I had a plan - take my small bankroll at PokerStar and try and take it up to $500 through $5 SnG play. I didn't give myself a great chance of succeeding with only 10 bullets in the gun when I started but I hoped I could at least spin that up a little and in doing so start to build a roll that was suitable for launching a challenge of this type, and if I failed then I haven't lost much and have hopefully learned a lot. I also said that I thought I would need the progress to keep me interested and motivated. Hmmm. Was my plan too ambitious? I don't think so. It's hardly the Ferguson $0 to $10,000 challenge is it? It's a reasonable idea and gives me a solid target to aim for. I said I would include bonuses along the way so I don't need to make $450 from the SnGs alone as I have a couple of bonuses I am working off at PokerStars anyway that will help the bank balance move in the right direction.

    So how is it going?

    You had to ask didn't you? We couldn't just let this one slip away silently, oh no. Since you ask, the answer is badly. I have played 10 SnGs now and remarkably, given the standard of my play in them, I still have some cash left. I have won two of them and finished outside the cash in the other eight. Yes, two wins is decent enough but an ITM of just 20% is really very poor. And oh my God I have been playing badly.

    I'm not stealing enough.
    I'm wimping out when I am 3-bet pre-flop.
    I'm not putting opponents on hands.
    I lack focus, concentration and discipline.
    I fear I am playing too tight at times (short-handed & high blinds).
    I'm getting carried away with some hands, overvaluing them and losing (e.g. ATo on a board of T-Q-J-6-T, I river trips and make a big raise off the back of it only to be shown 89 for the flopped straight. This is one of many examples where I felt invincible when I made the bet and then said "oh " when the cards are flipped).
    I wonder if I am too reliant on PokerTracker (although deep down I don't think I am, although I do think I need a lot more hands on my opponents before I am happy to trust anything PT says).
    I'm weak post-flop, especially when I have missed the flop.
    I'm suffering hugely from poor information density.

    I need to find out where I am going wrong and plug those leaks NOW. In particular I want to look at things like:
    how my results vary by site
    how my results vary by game type
    how I am playing in each position (VPIP, PFR etc)
    how often I am stealing, especially when the table is short-handed
    how my play varies with the blind levels (am I loosening up as the blinds increase? etc)
    what sort of hands I am busting out on and was there anything that could (should) have made me realise I was in a bad spot

    In short, I need to completely dismantle my game examine all the little pieces in great detail and then it back together in a better order so that it works properly. The SnGs at these stakes (and the level above plus perhaps the one above that too) should be easy money and I should be able to show a long-term ROI of around 15-20% according to popular opinion and an ITM of 50% shouldn't be beyond me.

    I have been playing poker on and off (and maybe that's the problem and I should be playing regularly) for years now. I have read all the major texts and a lot of supplementary volumes too. I feel I understand the game and when I watch a hand I am not involved in I can see others making mistakes such as not shoving when they have a great situation to do so, and that's without knowing any of the cards at the table so I am able to think beyond just the cards I hold. But my performance both recently and much longer term is both disappointing and frustrating me. If I can't reliably beat these low-stakes SnGs I am clearly doing something very wrong and it's a case of identifying those problems and addressing them. If I can't do that then I should seriously consider giving up online poker for good and just play the occasional home game where it's as much about the craic as it is the cards, if not more so.

    This afternoon will see some serious soul-searching and number crunching, all part of a game called "spot the leak"...



  21. #231

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    11th January 2010
    Not one to do things by halves, I spent almost all of yesterday afternoon and evening plus a couple of hours this morning analysing my SnG game looking for weaknesses. I tend to absorb information better when I write it down so to that end I have written a 13-page dossier on my play that I can refer back to as necessary. It captures a lot of the relevant PokerTracker data too so I can see how my play progresses from this point too. It focuses more on pre-flop play than post-flop as I feel any mistakes made pre-flop are going to be more expensive than post-flop errors and also because I have identified a number of leaks in my pre-flop game so I wanted to work on those before looking deeper into my post-flop play. Get the basics right and then I can work on fine-tuning my approach to the game.

    The main ways in which I can improve my game are:
    • tighten up pre-flop in the early levels
    • reduce steal frequency in early levels, especially from the small blind
    • open-limping needs to be tightened up considerably from middle position
    • stop open-raising with so many weak aces from middle position
    • steal more when we are short-handed, even with trash
    • raise more pre-flop when heads-up
    • continuation bet more often heads up


    I wondered yesterday if I was playing too tight but the answer is almost certainly that I am not playing tight enough in the opening levels. I questioned whether I was stealing enough - nope, I must steal more often but only when it is worth doing so, i.e. when the blinds are high. I should stop stealing as often in the early levels, especially from the SB. I felt I am weak post-flop especially when I miss the flop but PokerTracker suggests otherwise, which is good to know.

    Obviously PokerTracker can't help with the issue of focus/concentration and information density but PokerStars can - play more tables. I ought to be able to play at least 4 tables at the same time without any issue, especially if I tighten up my early game. The online game will always have a much lower information density than the live game as you can't see your opponents, there are no cocktail waitresses, no clanging slot machines and general casino hubbub etc. The way to make up for this is to trade volume for density, play more tables each offering less information than a single live table to build the level of information to be processed up to a similar level as for live play. It's got to be worth a go hasn't it? For now though I will stick with just a couple of tables at once while I absorb the required changes into my game. When they become second nature and my results start to improve I can add more tables into the mix.

    I feel quietly confident at the minute. I have spotted a number of leaks in my game and identified simple ways to address them. All good so far but what I really need now is for the cards to go my way too and for my results to improve alongside my game. I don't want to find myself improving my game but hitting a natural downswing that makes it seem like although I am playing better I am doing worse. I need positive reinforcement of these changes to my game. Fingers crossed...



  22. #232

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    12th January 2010
    So how is my new improved game working out for me? Still mixed results I'm afraid. I feel confident in my game though, which is good, so I am sure it will all click in time.

    Since I did that analysis of my SnG play I have played a further 26 $5 tourneys on PokerStars. I won $28.50 from 12 of them yesterday (most of the profit come in the evening) and then lost $27.50 this afternoon across 14 tourneys. It's not that I played badly as such but some things just weren't going my way. Bubbles just weren't bursting whatever I tried, and far too often I ended up all-in against AA and losing those confrontations for the most part, as you'd expect. Short-handed, especially when down to 4 players it seems that I ended up losing fairly dominant, or at least strong, chip positions and I don't really understand how. The fact it is happening suggests I am not picking my spots properly. I am playing aggressively and stealing plenty (too much?) but this is something I clearly need to be aware of and to watch my play at these stages of the game. This tendency to squander decent chip positions is borne out in my recent results too with 11 cash finishes of which 7 have been in 3rd place. Not good enough.

    While retaining the overall target of building my bankroll up to $500 (it's currently $48.90 - I am down $9 overall since I started playing again) I have started to set myself little targets along the way to help keep me motivated. For example, I want to get my $5 tourney profit figure into the black - that's the first target as it stands at -$44 at present. I want to increase my ITM to 45% (it's 38.20% at these stakes) and improve my ratio of wins/second/third places which presently reads 8/7/19. I want to improve my profit per hand in middle positions but I haven't yet put any firm figures on this. My main aims are to play more and win more but I feel it is good to have specific goals in mind.

    Talking of goals and playing more, I can quantify how much I want to play each day now as circumstances have forced my hand somewhat. I have been steadily working off a bonus of $82.45 and have given up on trying to unlock it several times but now I realise it represents a good chunk of the bankroll I wish to build - over one-sixth of the profit I need to realise to achieve a $500 bankroll so it is worth trying to get this free money. To do that I need to earn a total of 2061 VPPs by 12th February 2010. I currently have 1183. Each SnG is worth 2.75 points so I need to play another 320 SnGs to get those points which means playing an average of 10 a day. I managed 12 this afternoon and will hopefully get some more in this evening but I need to put the hours in the table if I want that $80. I want to put the hours in though as I need this sort of intensive training to help improve my game.

    I am back up to 4 tables a time, by the way. I know I said I would be on 2 at a time and I was for a bit but then I decided that I was getting bored and distracted so last night I cranked it up to 4 at a time and I have stuck with that this afternoon too. And it feels fine. I don't think I could manage more, especially when they get short-handed and the action is back on you so quickly, but I have been playing 4 tables comfortably. I am even balancing the required aggression levels when tourneys reach different stages too, say I have one in the early stages and am on the bubble in another. I'm coping perfectly well with that and don't find that my approach to one spills into the other, which is a relief.



  23. #233

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    12th January 2010 (part two)
    I don't know how significant some of these findings are as I am still dealing with a relatively small number of hands once you start slicing and dicing the data as I have been but I have noticed a few quirks in my PokerTracker stats, such as:

    - my BB/hand UTG is better when there are six players left than where there are only five of us
    - should my BB/hand really be nagative in the blinds? This is what I have always thought but I am now starting to wonder why I can't profit from the blinds. I am very profitable in these positions without accounting for the blinds but what figures should I be aiming for?
    - my BB/hand is positive in all positions except the BB when there are only 4 players left
    - is BB/hand a good measure of my performance in any given position/situation or is another stat more telling?
    - when the table has only 4 or 5 players left I am raising almost every hand I play (VPIP 26.73%, PFR 23.28%)

    Hmm, just had a quick Google about. BB/hand is a sensible stat to be using it seems and it is expected to lose out of the blinds but the amount won without the blinds should be significantly positive, which mine is.

    I have just filtered down to hands played on 'Stars only and looked at my positional stats. I'm stronger in earlier position than late positions. Perhaps I am overvaluing marginal holdings pre-flop in later positions when we're short-handed and squadering chips that way. That sounds plausible, and should be a fairly easy leak to plug but I need to make sure I am still stealing often enough.

    I am a loser three-handed, according to PokerTracker. This shouldn't come as a surprise as I have more 3rd place finishes than any other but I'd like to work out what I am doing wrong. Looking at the amount won without blinds I am positive (and nicely so) in the blinds but losing from the button. Hmm. Am I pushing too hard, too far and too fast on the button when we're three-handed? Am I deluding myself that I am going for the win when what I am actually doing is risking more chips than I need to and risking them more readily than I should? That's something else to keep in mind. I am not winning many showdowns from the button, just 1 in 3. Small samples and all that but even so, it should be more than that.

    Something to take into this evening's games for sure.



  24. #234

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    12th January 2010 (part three)
    I am now going to parrot out some of the common phrases you'll hear poker players utter:

    I don't get dealt pocket Aces as often as other players
    I keep getting my good hands outdrawn
    They keep hitting lucky rivers against me

    And all of these were true this evening. I'm not going to go through anything in any real detail but I remember one hand where I was miles ahead only for him to runner-runner me to make bloody quads. Git! I had what seems like endless outdraws on the damn river too, and got flashed AA a few times when I was all-in. Why do I never have AA in this situations? OK, I had it once this afternoon when some muppet thought A2o was good enough for an all-in first hand

    Unlike many other players though I have some evidence to back up some of my moans. The standard small sample disclaimer applies but I have been dealt 22,729 hands of which 1,378 have been pocket pairs. So 1 in 16.49 hands is a pocket pair which is pretty much in line with the maths. Those pairs should be pretty equally split between the ranks, especially in a large sample (which this isn't) so I am expecting to have been dealt AA 106 times, not the 96 times I have had it. Not a huge difference but surely I am due those Aces at some point. I have the same number of pocket Queens too and only 98 pocket Kings. The world owes me some big pocket pairs. Filter this down to just hands played at PokerStars (and thus reducing the sample size, I know) and there have been 1155 pocket pairs giving me an average of 88.8 of each rank. I have had KK 88 times, that's OK, I'll let Stars off for that. But 76 pocket Aces - they owe me 12 or 13 AA starting hands annd 7 or 8 QQ hands too while we're at it. Grrrr.

    Tonight's seven tournaments included three 5th place finishes. I seem to be having a lot of those so I looked at my results for PokerStars and broke it down by final position to see if I could learn anything useful.

    1st: 22
    2nd: 29
    3rd: 30
    4th: 25
    5th: 39
    6th: 37
    7th: 28
    8th: 14
    9th: 5

    I'm not busting out too early (good) but I am finishing 5th or 6th too often to be healthy. I'm not saying I should be taking more risks and busting out more in 7th or 8th but I should be getting to the bubble more often than I am, then I can push on to finish in the money. The final 5 or 6 seems to be a real black spot for me. I'll have to keep an eye out to see if I can work out what I am doing wrong. Am I getting there with too short a stack? Passing up too many steal opportunities? Stealing too often with trash? It'll be hard to see true patterns until I have a lot more data though.

    Apart from the three 5ths I had a win, a 2nd, a 9th and a 7th this evening so a loss of another $2.50. This is proving a lot more challenging than I expected I must admit. I must stick with it though.



  25. #235

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    13th January 2010
    Those 5th and 6th place finishes are annoying me and I want to try and work out what needs to be done to make it further in the tournament more often so it's back to PokerTracker for another look at the data. I want to focus on regular SnGs played at PokerStars as they not only represent my current game and site of choice but also my most recent play meaning I am getting a more accurate picture of how I am playing now, not how I played last year or whenever. This reduces my sample to just over 19000 hands from 229 tourneys but it's a necessary filter I feel.

    Everyone knows that tight is right for the early levels and it became apparent during my last study of my results that I wasn't tight enough during the early stages. I am in danger of covering the same old ground here but it may help reinforce the idea somewhat. I am looking at my performance in each of the blind levels and I am disappointed in what I see.

    The first level (10/20) is profitable for me to the tune of 0.18BB/hand. My VPIP is 8.42% with a PFR of 4.48%. I win two out of three showdowns and don't defend my blinds to a steal really. That's all fair enough I think, although as I said the other day I would like to see the VPIP and PFR figures converge a little. Have I been heeding my recent advice to tighten up early doors? Yes, it seems I have as my VPIP is 6.53% and PFR is 4.44% since I did that big dossier on my play. I am attempting very few steals too (7.69%). I still need to tighten up a little more though. I may be overvaluing AJo and have been struggling with TT the few times I have played it so perhaps that one can be dropped too. That's still a much tighter range than I had previously employed in this situation though so by and large my opening level play is fine.

    But it's downhill from thereon in. I am losing 0.04BB/hand when the blinds are 15/30 for some reason. My VPIP has stepped up slightly to 9.31% and with it my PFR has upped to 4.91%. I win 55% of showdowns, which is obviously more than I lose, and I am not defending my blinds more than is necessary. They are the overall stats but what about the stats from the last few days? My game is one of 8.56/4.81 with 50% of showdowns won, blinds folded to steal attempts 100% of the time and a steal percentage of 13.64%. Yet recently I am losing 0.06BB/hand, why? If we look at all the hands I have entered the pot with the range is much wider than for the opening level. ATs has been an expensive hand for me as has AJs and pocket pairs including JJ, 99 and even 66. I haven't had too much luck with ATo and AQ (suited and offsuit) either. Small samples but even so it is clear I should be tightening up massively here. Add a date filter in to reduce the sample to just my play since I took my game apart over the weekend and I have indeed tightened up significantly. I have been unlucky with KK and am losing heavily with AQs and AQo though. With so few of each hand played in these circumstances though it is impossible to say for certain whether any specific hands should be dropped. I just need to get into the long-term building up more data and keep in mind that I need to continue to play tightly. Take out those big losses with KK and AQ and it puts a completely different spin on the figures. Perhaps my play in the second level is not as bad as I feared and a bit of bad luck in a small sample is making it seem that way.

    25/50 next and this is my worst level of all of them with a loss of 0.07BB/hand overall. VPIP is 10.55% with a PFR of 6.99% so I am loosening up but only slightly as the blinds increase slowly. That looks alright to me. I am winning less than 50% of showdowns though (48.96%). I am folding my blinds to a steal regularly though, which feels like good news. It's my two pair hands that are doing for me on the showdowns it seems. It's difficult to say whether this is due to bad play or bad luck but they are costing me money at this level. What of my recent play though, have I tidied things up a bit since I gave myself that kick up the rear? VPIP of 10.22% with a PFR of 7.11% means I am playing about the same as I always have at this level. I have won 50% of showdowns in the last few days though so things have improved slightly on that front. I am giving my blinds up without a fuss and attempting few steals of my own. On the surface of it that all looks OK so why am I losing 0.03BB/hand? It is bad luck like on the previous level? I've been burned heavily a couple of times with two pair hands including one that began life as A8o. Why was I playing that? It was in the SB so I hope I limped into a multi-way pot with amazing pot odds....no. I called from the SB with just one previous limper. That's rubbish play that ended up costing me 8.5BB! That hand is one of several weak offsuited Aces I have played at this level so I need to cut those out. I have also had a couple of TTs go against me so I should watch my play of that one and similar pocket pairs that readily face overcards on the flop. So it's a general tightening up that is required at this level, more than I have done already.

    The next level is 50/100 and it's a breakeven one for me overall. My VPIP is up to 14.24% with PFRs coming in 12.02% of the time. Those figures are much closer together, I like that. I win just under 50% of showdowns (49.69%), defend my blinds a little more often (80.12% fold BB to steal, 89.19% for SB) but am concerned I may be stealing too regularly at 26.27%, almost double my figure for the previous level. It's hard to say when viewing the stats in this way because it's not clear how many players are left at the table - these figures are just averages for all hands played at this level regardless of how many players were left in. My range has opened up a bit for hands I am willing to play but has it opened too much? Let's look at the hands I have played recently... With a VPIP of 14.71% and a PFR of 12.61% it seems I am playing as wide a range now as I ever was but losing too many showdowns (42.86% won). It's broadway hands doing the damage including QTs, QJs, AJo and AQs plus small pairs such as 22 and 33. I'd say I should be tightening up further but this needs to be based on things other than the blinds so we're running into territory where this approach of examing my stats for each blind level starts to fail.

    I'll finish this examination of play at each blind level with a quick dash through the remaining levels. 75/150 is a slight winner for me while 100/200 is a slight loser. Above that the sample is too small to be meaningful in any way. I should be winning more showdowns at 100/200 though, a sign I am overvaluing some holdings. Recently (since the last big analysis of my game) both 75/150 and 100/200 are breakeven levels for me but there is still room to win more showdowns at both levels. Don't read too much into that though as we are dealing with very few hands all told.

    I wanted to get an idea of how I played as the blinds increased and the above gives me that. I'm OK on the first couple of levels but could tighten up more on the 25/50 level. If I am squandering too many chips there I could be leaving myself in a poor position when the table gets short-handed, an area I want to look at in more detail now.

    I said above that all those 5th and 6th places were doing my head in so let's look at my play when there are just 5 or 6 players left and see if I can work out where I am going wrong. I have an inkling that I am getting down to 10-12xBB and panicking faster and more extremely than many of my rivals at this level and this is leading me to bust out with marginal holdings against overcards. That is to say I am picking the wrong time, and the wrong hands with which to make a stand. I have filtered the data down to hands with 5 or 6 players at the table and by looking at the breakdown by blind level it is quite obvious that I have a problem with the 25/50 level. A loss of 0.16BB/hand. And marginal hands seem to be the problem indeed. Significant losses with medium pocket pairs such as JJ and TT and problems with hands like QJs. My range has tightened up over the past few days but I have had big losses (my full stack) with JJ and TT in that time. The TT hand I overvalued when one overcard came on the flop, a Jack, and my opponent held JTo. I had him 65/35 pre-flop so that's not too bad. I made a strong bet on the flop that he just called and shoved on the turn (1245 into a pot of 1425 so not excessive) with 11 outs. I was counting on him not having the Jack or a bigger pair in the hole, obviously. Whoops. With the Jacks I raised to 3xBB pre-flop and got shoved on for around 30xBB total. And I called. Erm, what was I hoping he had? He's got AQ+ here at least. He had AA and doubled up through me. These things happen but that was a loose call. I should have folded and just taken the 3xBB hit. I had a stack of 45xBB so why squander two-thirds of it on a non-premium hand? Dumb. Cut out such plays - and I need to! - and things don't look anywhere near as bad.

    But plays like that are relatively few and fare between - they aren't the major reason I am finishing 5th or 6th so often are they? Why, when the table is short-handed, is everyone outlasting me? If I can get past that 25/50 level I do alright. I make 0.06BB/hand at 50/100 and am breakeven at 75/150. At 100/200 I obviously start to panic a bit more as I lose an average of 0.04BB/hand. I need to dig a bit more into the numbers to see what is going on and where I am going wrong (and also what I am doing right). My VPIP increases steadily along with the blinds, as does my PFR although as always the two could be closer so I need to limp less, especially with hands that don't really justify my entry into the pot. I am winning only 31.58% of showdowns at 25/50 - that's incredibly low suggesting I am taking far too many hands to the end. I don't seem to be getting my share of flushes and straights - or perhaps I am not giving myself a chance to get them by not playing the right hands - but I am overvaluing two pair again, often a middling pocket pair against an overcard that has paired or an overpair. My straights aren't holding up very well either but I am conscious of the sample size once more.

    This is getting frustrating, what am I doing wrong? Where should I be looking to try to find my short-handed leaks? Positions! I'm better in late than early but profitable everywhere except the blinds and even then I am showing a significant profit without the blinds. Ah, but do I lose more from the blinds short-handed than at a full table? My overall averages are -0.16BB/hand from the BB and -0.09BB/hand for the SB. When there are 7 or more of us at the table those figures are -0.23 and -0.16. Short-handed (6 to 5 players) they are -0.21 and -0.16. These figures rise when we get to the bubble and beyond it seems. Hmm. What about my steal percentages? Aha! I have attempted to steal in 21.47% of cases from one off the button, 26.40% on the button and 50.00% in the SB. I have had 320 steal opportunities from the small blind and raised in 160 of those. Eek! It's been a profitable move but only just at 0.01BB/hand compared to over 0.5BB/hand from the other positions. A deeper look at those 160 hands seems in order. I've been unlucky with a few hands such as AJs (rivered the nut flush but was up against an unlikely flopped full house), KK (v A8o & he flopped an Ace) and have got on the wrong side of some coin-flips but that will all equal out in time. It's the 64o, the J8s, T7o and the like I need to be cutting out unless I have a very strong read on my opponent and know he will fold his big blind to my steal. That means I need plenty of hands on him and also to make sure I am risking enough chips to make the steal look strong enough to get through but not so many that I am needlessly squandering chips when faced with a better hand. Ooh heck, I have just realised that over the past few days I have stolen 100% of the time from the SB when short-handed. That's every hand out of the 24 in which I have had the chance, so 83o has been just as worthy a candidate as AA. Hmmm, I don't like that much.

    I don't want to swamp myself with too many changes to consider at any one time. I will be far better off improving my game bit by bit so what are the main points to take from this analysis?
    - ease off with the stealing from the SB when short-handed. Make sure your hand has some sort of merit to it before even considering this move
    - tighten up more during 25/50 play
    - big re-raises mean something, don't call them without a premium hand unless your stack size forces you into it

    I feel buoyed by that. I like finding flaws in my game as it means that I am doing something wrong and when that's the case you can take positive action to address the problem. When it is just the natural variation in the game getting at you there is nothing you can really do about it, you just have to suck it down and get on with it. But with this I have something I can take to the tables, things to be aware of while playing and conscious changes I can make to how I approach the game.



  26. #236

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    13th January 2010 (part two)
    I have just realised as I was typing the year in that title above that automatically wrote 2009, as I have done in all my posts so far this year :splapme. I had better go back and correct that at some point.

    Anyway, it looks like this morning's efforts have paid off as I had a pretty good afternoon. 15 tournaments played and guess how many 5th or 6th place finishes I had? Two! Today's results read 1 x 9th, 1 x 7th, 2 x 5th, 4 x 4th, 3 x 3rd, 1 x 2nd, 3 x 1st for a profit of $25.50. That's not bad is it? It was a rocky start to the day with my first few results reading 4th, 4th, 3rd, 7th, 5th and 4th again. I was bubble boy. But in a way I don't mind that too much. It shows I am getting it right early on and putting myself in a position to be able to cash as none of those 4th places were me sneaking past 5th just to say I did it, in each case I was in a proper scrap on the bubble and was making a damn good fight of it to try and not only cash but get in the money with a chance of winning it outright. At this point, with four tables open I was down to mere pence in my PokerStars account and in need of some results. 1st, 1st, 3rd, 9th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 1st and finally a 5th place - much better.

    What pleases me about this afternoon's session is how I played - I was in the zone for a lot of it. Not all of it, granted, but a lot of the time I was doing it all right. I got outdrawn on any number of times (including ATs losing to A9s on the river, AKo beaten by A7o when they flopped a full house and one hand where I got beaten by a royal flush, made on the river to beat my hand which had been ahead till then of course) but I also got lucky myself on a few occasions so perhaps it all balances out in the end. I was getting my money in good far more often than not but I needed some luck along the way too.

    I feel I really advanced as a player today. Something clicked that helped a lot of things make sense. I developed the mental strength to play the short stack and didn't feel under pressure, even during short-handed play. I came to accept that a short stack is a challenge and one must rise to it or be doomed to failure. I tried not to panic and realised that in the past I had been thinking that when my stack gets to 10xBB I have to start shoving at some point. Partly true, but only when I was going to make a raise anyway - I don't need to just shove for the hell of it even when the blinds are coming back round to me. I realised that stacks of 4xBB can still have fold equity. I practiced min-raises to steal blinds rather than risking more chips than I have to. I folded when I met too much resistance and generally played a much more solid game. I enjoyed myself even though I am starting to feel the grind a bit now and am realising what a long lonely road it will be to $500. Even at a 20% ROI (which I am still a way off) I am talking about making around $450. Take off a bit for bonuses accrued along the way, say $100 once you include the stellar rewards at PokerStars as well as the $80 or so deposit bonus I am working off and we're looking at needing to make $350 which at around $1 a tourney will take over 300 SnGs, obviously. I know I said I want to try and play that many in the next month but it seems like a hell of a lot.

    I hope I have the heart to grind it out without busting along the way. My balance is up to $71.90 which gives me 13 buy-ins, still a short bankroll and one that could still be swallowed up by variance but I'm in a better position that I was. I put some thought in to what I would do if I went bust this afternoon. Would I redeposit at PokerStars in a desperate attempt to claim that bonus? I decided that if I don't then I have wasted all the effort I have put in so far so the sensible thing to do is probably deposit another $100 or so, work off that bonus and then re-evaluate where I stand. I read something today that says at the low VIP levels (which is where I am) PokerStars loyalty scheme is equivalent to something like 8% rakeback whereas you can get 27% on Full Tilt. I have to give Full Tilt a crack at some point on that basis don't I? That said, I don't want to quit on this challenge, I want to finally achieve one of of my goals for once.



  27. #237

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    The afternoon was so good you posted it twice :D Glad you're making some progress Mat Haven't played poker in ages now, kind of lost interest in it. Reading your thread is whetting my appetite a bit but I haven't bitten yet

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  28. #238

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    It's not big or clever to remove it

    "I put a skylight in my apartment...... the people upstairs are furious." - Stephen Wright


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  29. #239

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattR View Post
    The afternoon was so good you posted it twice :D
    By mistake, I promise you.
    Quote Originally Posted by MattR View Post
    It's not big or clever to remove it
    No, but it does make things tidier, and I did so before I realised you had spotted it. If you're that bothered just scroll back up and read it twice :wink
    Glad you're making some progress Mat
    Thanks, me too but I am all too aware that I haven't made that much progress and there is a long way to go yet.
    Haven't played poker in ages now, kind of lost interest in it. Reading your thread is whetting my appetite a bit but I haven't bitten yet
    I know what you mean, I have times like that too. It's only now I have set myself a target that I am really keen to achieve that I am able to keep focused and not spit my dummy out and go sulk when things go against me. I hope to develop into a much better player because of this.



  30. #240

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    13th January 2010 (part three)
    What the afternoon giveth the evening taketh away

    Not a good session with one second place my only cash. I thought those 5th places were behind me but I bagged two tonight. I managed a 7th, 8th and a 9th too. One bubble finish was the closest I came to another cash and it was disappointing not to finish in the money there as I was proper scrapping for it. I lost count of the number ot times I got rivered this evening. I get myself into good positions but lady luck just doesn't want to know right now. Sigh.

    A loss of $30.50 this evening with just that one cash in eight resulting in a loss on the day of another $5 despite that terrific afternoon.

    Back on the horse tomorrow though...



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