mathare's Poker Diary

[mathare]

14th January 2010
This afternoon made up for last night and then some, in fact it was a better afternoon that yesterday's session that I was so chuffed about. And there is a lot to like about this afternoon's session with a profit of $38.50 from 11 SnGs with 6 cashes (3 x 1st, 1 x 2nd, 2 x 3rd). In fact, in true horse racing style my 'form' today reads 17371283418.

I played well, felt very positive throughout and had a 'never say die' attitude even when short-stacked. I protected my hands well and tried to maximise each and every one of my wins. I got into some good battles short-handed and usually came through them intact. No 5th or 6th place finishes and only one bubble although I did have a couple of 7ths and a couple of 8ths but they weren't really due to rash early play, more tight play that meant we still had a pretty full table when the blinds got up there and my moves weren't holding up. Ah well, such is life.

One thing that really pleases me about my results since I started playing SnGs again is my heads-up performance. My cash finishes this year can be broken down into 12 x 1st, 5 x 2nd and 12 x 3rd so when I get heads up I am playing much stronger than last year (when my cashes read 16 x 1st, 27 x 2nd, 23 x 3rd). It looks like the changes I have made to my game are paying off. My PokerTracker stats are all heading in the right direction and I am really happy with the way things are going. I'm creeping towards that bonus too - just another 280 SnGs to go!

[mathare]

15th January 2010
I rewarded myself with the evening off from poker last night. Maybe I was too scared of giving some of those afternoon profits back Anyway, I was back in action this afternoon. However, I wasn't feeling in the zone like I had been recently and couldn't quite concentrate fully on the game in hand so I played 10 SnGs and then stopped even though I would normally go on from there and played another 4 or 5 - I had the time but there didn't seem much point if I wasn't playing my best. And the fact that I am winless this afternoon suggests I am not playing as well as I can. My 'form' string for this afternoon is 2386533426 so I cashed in 50% of the tourneys I played but I couldn't actually push on and secure the win in any of them. I didn't even make a profit despite finishing in the money half the time, but then I did only lose a dollar I suppose so it's hardly a loss worth losing much sleep over.

I spoke the other day of targets and how I had set them to help motivate me along the way but I had an ultimate aim: to get my bankroll to $500. That is still my aim but I have now set a long-term goal too - I want to have a bankroll capable of supporting play at the $50 SnG level by the end of the year. That means I am looking at something like $2,000 to $2,500. It'll take quite a bit of play and grinding but that's my new long-term target.

[MattR]

Mat why not set targets along the way in the same ratio to step up to each SnG that is between the $5 you're at and the $50 you aim to get to? That way things would grow quicker and you'd be moving through the higher SnG's as you increase your bankroll.

[mathare]

Mat why not set targets along the way in the same ratio to step up to each SnG that is between the $5 you're at and the $50 you aim to get to? That way things would grow quicker and you'd be moving through the higher SnG's as you increase your bankroll.

I will be, as and when it makes sense for me to do so. My first target is to get into profit (overall) for the $5 SnGs at PokerStars which I am $14 away from. My next target is to unlock the first Stellar Rewards bonus which I about 30% of the way towards. Next is the deposit bonus that needs to be unlocked within the next month. By then I should have a bankroll around $250-$300 including bonuses and I can start taking shots at the $10 SnGs. It'll be stupid of me to continue playing $5 SnGs when my bankroll can reasonably support higher stakes as I'll be limiting my earning potential. I am avoiding setting too many targets between now and the grand overall target(s) though as I am still mulling over a change of poker room, to Full Tilt so I can get the rakeback deal and save 27% of my house fees. I want those PokerStars bonuses first though before I think about moving my 'roll to Full Tilt.

[mathare]

16th January 2010
Another good session - 13 tourneys netting me a profit of $18.50. It should have been higher but I bubbled the last one when I was looking good for a top 3 finish as the short stacks started to get lucky and got hands to hold up really well. Ah well, I can't complain about this afternoon's results really. I figured I was in for a bad afternoon when within a few minutes of starting the first tourney I got AA cracked. I raised to 3xBB and got min-raised by the player to my left. A late position player min-raises again so when it's folded back round to me I rub my hands with glee and push all-in figuring to get at least one caller. In fact they both call, the first min-raiser holding QTo (!) and the re-raiser showing KK. The flop opens with a King and then blanks out. Busted on the first level. But I came back strongly despite that start to have a session that reads 8526114667314 in terms of finishing positions. I'm particularly pleased with the three wins compared to just one second place as that shows my heads up game is continuing to develop and improve. I am starting to appreciate proper heads up play more whereas before I think it used to scare me and I used to panic a bit and try to end it on the first half-decent hand I was dealt. Now I am content to chip away at my opponent and also happier grinding a smaller stack back up to make a proper fight of it. I am a much more confident heads up player these days.

The big thing to take away from this afternoon is meeting my first target - today's profit sees me break into the black for $5 SnGs on PokerStars, making up for my poor showings in these events last year.

I still need to greatly improve on my ROI though. I have now played 100 SnGs in January for a profit of $39.50 which is a ROI of 7.18% whereas conventional wisdom says I should have a figure that is at least double that, if not a bit more on top of that. I feel my game is improving though and my results are on the up. Now I just have to keep it going!

[mathare]

17th January 2010
Close but no cigar this afternoon, I think that's the best way of describing it. I made a profit again ($7.50 from 15 SnGs) and I suppose that's the main point of playing but I didn't feel quite on top of my game and got some bad luck along the way that prevented me from making more profit, and I feel I should have done better. I didn't play badly as such but I can play better. And if you need an example of the luck going against me how about the nut full house being beaten by a royal flush? Yes, that's twice in the last few days I have been beaten by a royal flush. :(

Only one win from 15 this afternoon, and I would expect more, plus three 2nds and three 3rds so a decent ITM rate but generally disappointing finishes. Most of the times I did reach the cash I was nursing a stack that was in need of some TLC (tourney leader's chips!). My overall form for the afternoon is 364254251635632 - nothing worse than 6th for a change but too many mid-field finishes for my liking. Still, some days are like that aren't they? And I did at least make a profit so I should be content, if not happy.

Today's profit also sees my bankroll break the $100 mark. Now it's a case of keeping it there...

[mathare]

17th January 2010 (part two)
I knew the good play was in me somewhere and this evening out it came, putting a much better spin on the day as a whole. I only played 6 SnGs but it was about quality rather than quantity. Anyway, evenings don't give me that much time to play really.

This evening's performance was 641214 and I had a good scrap in that first one I bubbled and played pretty well in all three heads up matches too. That's another $25.50 on the plus side of the ledger and sees my initial bankroll more than doubled now. It's all moving in the right direction

[mathare]

18th January 2010
I found myself cursing my luck this afternoon as I busted out of a few tourneys much earlier than expected as I ended up on the wrong side of coin flips (which I usually avoid where I can as they are often -$EV) and also got drawn out on plenty when I got my money in good.

My bust outs included ATs v JJ (30/70 dog), QQ v JJ v AKo (45/20/35 favourite), QTs v A6s (45/55 dog), A3s v J9o (58/42 favourite), AA v KTo v AQo (81/12/5 favourite), Q5s v Q7o (26.5/46.5 w/ 27% tie), QQ v KK v AKs (17/53/30 dog), TT v A5o (70/30 favourite), 77 v QQ (19/81 dog), AJs v KJs (70/30 favourite) and ATs v JJ (70/30 dog).

In summary, a profit of $10.50 from 12 SnGs so a decent enough ROI but with a little luck I could have done much better. I know I got it all-in behind in several of those bust-outs but when you're short-stacked and the situation looks good you have to shove and cross your fingers so I'm not too disheartened by any of that today. I'm still learning through experience. Only one win today though in a string of results that reads 665383172235 but profit is profit all the same.

[mathare]

19th January 2010
Another really good session in the bag and while I lost concentration part way through and almost gave up towards the end I did secure a nice profit of $30.50 from just 10 SnGs so I can't have done too badly. There's a couple of wins, a second place and three thirds in there for a 60% ITM and a ROI of 55.45%. The full afternoon finishes are 1743513327.

My bank is now up to almost 3 times where it started

I have to say though, even though this is something all online poker players (especially the bad ones) come out with at some point, I don't feel I am getting the rub of the green at PokerStars. I'm not saying the site is fixed, not in the slightest, more that if luck is going to even out in the long run (as it should) then I am wondering how long that long run really is. I'm back on the Aces things again I'm afraid. 28,374 hands in PokerStars SnGs for me now. Of those 1,687 have been pocket pairs, 5.946% of hands or just under 16/1. That's about right. Now of those 1,687 hands 1 in 13 should be pocket Aces, that's 129.77 pairs of bullets. I've had 110, nearly 20 whole hands less than expected. But I've had 88 145 times and 22 144 times. All other pocket pairs I have had at least 121 times but Aces is down at 110. That poker site owes me some serious Aces. And it's not just starting hands either, it's the showdowns and being rivered. I'm wary of getting into the mindset of thinking it's all against me when what I am witnessing is natural variance but when I enjoy luck like this I am more tempted to switch to Full Tilt and chance my arm there. However, I am aware that I am doing really well at PS right now despite my luck and lack of Aces so if it ain't (that) broke...

[crazybadger]

I don't think Full Tilt is any better. I've seen some very crazy things happen there and they do seem to happen all too regularly.

My mate has a theory (I don't subscribe to it personally) that poker sites are not completely random. He does't say they are rigged but just that each card dealt is not 100% random...he thinks they have specific ranges, types or hands they deal more often to encourage more action between players. Or that they do things like when one player gets a pocket pair then increase the chance of another player getting pocket pair so they can go head to head.

Very much a conspiracy theory but amusing to listen to.

[mathare]

21st January 2010
Due to one thing and another it was a day off for me yesterday. I thought I had probably got at least one day in the bank when it comes to meeting that deposit bonus on 'Stars but I am still keen to work it off as soon as possible so even though it was a bit of a squeeze I was back on the tables this afternoon. But my head wasn't really in the game - I was working on some Excel stuff for a friend at the same time and programming and poker don't really mix - and that shows in my results. No wins again but 3 runner up spots and a couple of bronze medal finishes too which from nine SnGs means a profit of $9 for a ROI of 18.18% this afternoon. At least one of those second places should have been a win had I beel focused properly, and I reckon I could have sneaked another cash in there too but I had to settle for making a small profit and being done with it really. It's not bad though, I wasn't playing properly and still recorded a ROI of nearly 20%.

I'm going to try again tonight all being well and will hopefully improve on the day's figures.

[mathare]

22nd January 2010
Yesterday evening continued in the same vein as the afternoon it seems: lack of concentration due to multi-tasking and doing 101 other things while trying to play 4 SnGs at the same time but still grinding out a respectable profit. I played another 8 tourneys last night and made another $10 profit making it $19 from 17 SnGs yesterday. I think I have now cleared my plate of most other pressing tasks so when I settle down to play again this afternoon I should be able to give the game more attention and hopefully that will show up in improved results. Unfortunately I think I am getting complacent and thinking these $5 games are too easy but I don't think my bankroll is quite there for the step up to $10 games yet. Maybe early next week I can take a look again and see if I can't slip in a couple of $10 games a day in amongst the standard $5 fare.

[mathare]

22nd January 2010 (part two)
Another weak afternoon where I wasn't playing anywhere near as well as I can, and should be. A lack of focus and not really giving a toss doesn't help. I was probably down around my B or C game when I should obviously be on my A game. But at least I now know why I have been playing poorly the last few days - I'm ill. I have felt a little iffy these past few days but shrugged it off as one of those things but this afternoon I started to go downhill quite rapidly and couldn't wait for the last table to finish so I could give up and go back to bed. In this afternoon's session I limped a few shortish stacks into 3rd place rather than playing to win the tournament. I think I have done this quite often in the last few days and is symptomatic of me being ill I reckon. Given the number of times I got dealt KK this afternoon (they were coming at me with a seriously unreal frequency) I should have done better than a profit of $3.50 from 10 SnGs but it is still a profit I suppose.

[mathare]

23rd January 2010
My first really poor session for ages with a loss of $21.50 - one second place and a third the only cashes in 8 SnGs. I only played because I felt I need to keep things ticking over to work off that deposit bonus. I wasn't really in the right frame of mind to play, nor really fit health-wise to be playing but my current health concerns are medium- to long-term so won't pass any time soon and therefore I need to get used to them and stop blaming them for playing way below my best.

Maybe I'll be able to play a better game tomorrow. I'm not sure I could really play much worse than I did today.

[mathare]

24th January 2010
Yesterday evening I was casually mulling over my performance that afternoon and was really disappointed with how poorly I had played and my results as a consequence. I went to bed swearing to make up for it today by focusing properly and playing as I know I can. I was half there this afternoon.

I fitted in another 12 SnGs this afternoon (I could have done more but it was starting to drive me mad) and made another $24, recouping all yesterday's losses plus a little more for good measure. But it was an afternoon of what could have beens as in those 12 events I finished runner up a massive 6 times! A great ITM ratio, sure, but some of those seconds should have been wins. My heads up game is suffering a little at the minute though. Some of the passion, desire and more importantly the aggression has gone from it. I can making way too many weak calls, checking too often and not raising often enough pre-flop. I'm dropping to too many 3-bets too I'd say. I haven't analysed my stats in PokerTracker for heads-up play - I don't need to as I can tell from the last few games I have played that my heads-up game is not what it was a week or two back. I'm hoping that my documenting my failures it will sink into my brain that I need to get back on track and play better when it's down to the last two players. In some of those heads-up encounters I was sat behind a much smaller stack than my opponent but in others I was also outchipping him massively so I reckon I should have won at least 2 or 3 of those match ups. That's $18-$27 of missed profit. I'm pleased that I won back what I lost yetserday but disappointed with my final performances and the profit that has cost me. But tomorrow is another day.

[mathare]

24th January 2010 (part two)

I have been thinking more about targets I want to set myself. It's been a good while since I last had a proper job but when I did I was in management and targets and objectives are all part of that so perhaps it's only natural that I am now seeing poker in a similar light. However, I prefer to think of these targets as more like goals or acheivements in a video game. You know, get so far through a level, beat the baddie and get a power up or an extra life - that sort of thing. Some games have a medal hall that let you see the achievements you have unlocked - maybe this thread will contain my poker version of that. The goals I have set are a mixture of short-term and longer-term objectives so I have something to aim for at all levels and enough to keep me interested and motivated. I used to have a line manager that was fond of 'eating elephants' as in "How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time." That is to say you take a big task (eating the elephant) and break it down into a number of smaller, more manageable tasks (bites). That's what I have tried to do here to some degree except I don't really know what my ultimate aim is - do I want to become a professional full-time SnG grinder? - so I don't really know how big my elephant is. Or maybe I know how big this elephant is (build my PokerStars bankroll to $500) but I don't know how many more I have to eat. Enough of this silly analogy for now I think, down to business.

The list below includes the objectives I have devised so far. Some of them should occur naturally as a result of regular play but are there to keep me playing, to have a target in sight but just out of reach is a great motivator, and the feeling of ticking something off a list as being acheived is a fantastic reward. Others are in there to keep my mind on not just playing but playing well, a crucial distinction. For each objective I have outlined my current status so we can all see how far away I am from each target. So in no particular order...

Increase PokerStars balance to $200
My current balance is $196.40 so I am setting myself a very easy first target. Once this one is met I will up the target balance by $50 until I finally reach my overall target of $500 in my PokerStars account.

Unlock 1st stellar reward bonus
Stellar rewards are a regular bonus awarded by PokerStars as you pick up loyalty points. I think you can secure $1000 if you make it all the way to Supernova within the year. I don't expect to get anywhere near that sort of level but the first instalment comes when one reaches 750 points. I have 522 points at the minute and they are awarded at the rate of 5.5 points per dollar paid in house fees for tournament players which means I am pulling in around 30 points a day (give or take) so this bonus should be unlocked in a week or so.

Unlock 1st deposit bonus
As you probably know by now, I am working off a deposit bonus on PokerStars that is worth around $80 and requires me to have earned 2061 points in the bonus period, which ends on the 12th February. I have earned 1606 points since I was awarded the bonus which means I need another 455 points, equivalent to another 166 $5 SnGs, although I will obviously need to play fewer games if I start mixing in $10 SnGs as I have thought about doing at some stage. I have a couple of days grace but we're I am still looking to try and get at least 10 SnGs in each and every day until this bonus is available. Also I say this is my first deposit bonus because I have another one if the pipeline, one that PokerStars offered me as a lure to get me playing again back in October. That (along with the stellar rewards I will earn along the way) is equivalent to a 27% rakeback deal (coincidentally the same as at Full Tilt, the room I was thinking of switching to) but crucially only if I complete the bonus before it expires towards the end of April. I have yet to decide whether I want another two months grinding, which is what it would take to unlock that one too.

Log 50,000 tournament hands
I'm including all my tournament play here - it would be remiss of me to forget my past and just count my recent hands at PokerStars for example. With that in mind I have just over 44,000 hands played and by playing SnGs with the frequency I am at present I am logging around 1000 hands a day on average so this target will be met inside a week at which point I will up the target by 5,000 or to some other nice round number, e.g. 75,000 hands.

ITM to be at least 45% after 500 SnGs
For this objective and the couple that follow I am talking about $5 SnGs. I have 243 of them under my belt now and reckon that to get to that $500 balance I am probably going to need to play nearly 500 of them, which is fine by me. If I switch to Full Tilt I would probably start at the $5 SnG level just to find my feet too. My ITM figure is currently around 43% but this month I am running at over 44% so I think 45% is realistic and achievable.

ROI to be at least 15% after 500 SnGs (20% stretch target)
For this objective I have also set a stretch target, a greater figure that I would love to meet making this one a sort of dual target. I'd be happy enough with 15% but if I can stretch that to 20% then I would be delighted. Hopefully this will encourage me to keep striving for a better ROI not just settle at 15%. Is that figure a reasonable one? Including my past poor play my current overall ROI is a touch under 8% although I am showing a ROI of over 14% this month. I think by working on maintaining my focus at the tables (and how many times have I said that is an issue for me?) and getting a little bit of luck along the way I should be able to increase my ROI to 15% over 500 SnGs.

Heads-up win ratio over 50% after 500 SnGs
By heads-up win ratio I mean my ratio of 1st places to 2nd places - I want to win more heads-up encounters than I lose. There is an extra 20% of the prize pool for the winner when compared to the money for runner up so I need to be taking at least my fair share of that cash. My figures are currently 39 wins and 53 seconds giving me a ratio of 42% but for this month the figure is 47%. It would be up over 50% had it not been for the six second places this afternoon.

BB/hand at least 0.10 for all non-blind positions
My hands are least profitable in middle positions and this is something I am working on while I play at present as much of the damage was done last year and it is taking some undoing. My worst position is 4 off the button (true middle position) where my profit is only 0.4BB/hand. Other positions are already there are thereabouts for this target but I want to get them all up to at least 0.10BB/hand. I'm not putting a time limit or any other sort of constraint on this objective (much to the horror of many a manager) because it should occur naturally as a result of good play. At least I hope so. I don't see why 0.10BB/hand isn't realistic but it may be that I never reach this target, especially as I step up the stakes and the games get harder but I am hoping to keep my game ahead of the curve hence this target.

Overall profit on PokerStars according to s/sheet
I have deposited £200 in PokerStars according to my spreadsheet but once currency exchange rates have been accounted for (I calculate all my winnings in the currency of the game as well as in pounds sterling) I only have £120.35 of that left in my account. The £80 or so I have lost is equivalent to around $135 so this target will be acheived automatically if I can keep my balance rising but it is still another goal, albeit related to previous ones, that I feel impelled to meet.

More objectives may be added as time goes on but that's a decent set to start with.

[mathare]

25th January 2010
Put on your best Punch and Judy voices everyone because "that's the way to do it" :D

This afternoon was my most profitable session in a long time, up $55.50 from 12 SnGs which is equivalent to a ROI of 84.09%. This came from three wins and four second places. No bronze medals for me today, it was all silver or gold. And it should have been more gold than silver but I got caught by a lucky out for my opponent on the river in the last tourney. All the money was in and I had him dominated and drawing very thin but he hit and took it down so fair play to him I suppose. I'm not going to complain about making over $55 regardless of whether or not it should have been more than that.

Guess what else happened this afternoon...I hit a royal flush . In fact I didn't just hit it, I flopped it! I had AJs (diamonds) and the flop came Qd-Kd-Td. I was already all-in against A9o but didn't have that big a stack, unfortunately, so hitting such a big hand didn't do me all that much good as I was still in a scrap to stay in the tourney. I didn't even go on to win either, I came second. Better that than getting a royal flush one hand and then busting out shortly after, eh?

This afternoon's profit means I can tick off a couple of objectives too, which is very satisfying.
Increase PokerStars balance to $200 - Done
Increase PokerStars balance to $250 - Done
And of course that's another 12 tournaments in the bag so another 33 points towards the various bonuses I am working towards. All in all an excellent afternoon :)

[mathare]

26th January 2010
If yesterday really was the way to do it then today could scarcely have been more different. An awful session consisting of 15 SnGs but just five cashes and four of those were third place. I wasn't getting the hands or the luck I needed at any stage of any of the tournaments; I wasn't picking my spots at all well; I was all-in against Aces way too many times. All in all, not good, not good at all. A loss of $33, most of what I won yesterday. I have yet to decide whether to have another go this evening or save the 'pleasure' for tomorrow. I wasn't playing that badly, not as badly as the results suggest I don't think.

[mathare]

27th January 2010
I did play poker again last night but only got 6 SnGs in during the available time. I did make a profit of $21 though reducing the overall loss on the day to just $12 so I'm glad I made the effort to get back to the tables.

The same cannot be said of this afternoon though. I may only have lost $5 from 14 SnGs but it was a massively frustrating afternoon. I don't think any of the coin-flips that mattered went my way and I am still seeing AK and AA far too often in the hands of my opponents once I have shoved all-in. It's seriously annoying. Is online poker always like this? Sigh. I can't wait to get these bonuses out the way and then I can move to Full Tilt. I don't feel as though I have ever got my fair share of luck at PokerStars for some reason. I am all too conscious of the poker player's lament about online poker being rigged (I'm not suggesting that at all) but I do feel as though I keep butting heads with premium hands too often and the number of times I have been rivered these past couple of weeks or so is unreal!

I think once these bonuses on PS are out the way I will take a short break from full table SnGs on there and will play some $2 heads-up tables on iPoker (Bet365). I did alright at these ages back but last time I played I got through 10 tourneys but only cashed in one! I think a change of pace would be useful and I have learned a lot about heads-up play recently. Hmm, on the other hand, if Full Tilt's fees aren't excessive at low stakes then maybe I could play there and work off my initial deposit bonus (when I create an account and deposit cash there, of course). I refuse to pay much in the way of house fees for low stakes heads-up play though. It's 5% at iPoker but 10% at PokerStars but when you go to the $5 level it's 5% on PokerStars too. Am I ready for $5 heads-up play? I'll have to give that some thought...

[crazybadger]

I've been playing some heads-up games recently and on FT too. The rake there is about 5% of your buy-in at most levels unless you play Turbo which reduces it down a little because they normally give you a little extra buy-in for the same rake.

E.g.
Normal Heads up = $5 + 0.25 (5%)
Turbo Heads up = $6 + 0.25 (4.17%)

Good luck

[mathare]

27th January 2010 (part two)
Thanks for the above CB, very useful

I had a few minutes before my tea this evening so threw in a quick $2 heads-up game on Bet365 to remind myself what it's all about. The early skirmishes were very even but my opponent started to pull ahead and put me in serious trouble with pre-flop raises and c-bets I felt I couldn't call till I ended up short-stacked. But I battled back and won it in the end after cranking up the aggression a notch or two.

I have to say though, I don't like the new Bet365 software. I haven't played there for ages and since then they have tried to give the software a more modern feel but it just doesn't look right to me. I can't really put my finger on what I don't like but it feels a bit too colourful, almost as though it's Fisher Price or Baby's First Poker Game or something. It loses some of the professional edge and becomes more video game-like. I can't say I approve. Ah well, just another 120 or so SnGs on PokerStars to go and then I can review my options, i.e. move to Full Tilt. I worked out the other day that the 27% rakeback is worth something like 0.25% to my bottom line ROI so it's definitely worth having. I need to work out what to do with my loyalty points at PokerStars, and Bet365 for that matter, at some point though.

[mathare]

28th January 2010
I think of myself as an honest and open person and I try never to delude myself about how well, or otherwise, I am playing when I am at the poker tables. I confess that this afternoon I have not played to the best of my ability but nor have I played dreadfully. A few loose calls when I should have known better. I missed picking up on a few reads focusing more on my hand than really going through all the options for my opponent so get a proper view on where I stood in the hand. These mistakes will be more costly at the higher stakes so I should work hard to eliminate them from my game as much as possible now but even so they should really be major factors in my results for $5 SnGs. Luck, on the other hand....

Boy, could I do with a little luck going my way at the minute. Or not even going directly my way but not favouring my opponent so much instead, that'd do me for starters. I have lost count of the number of flush draws I have seen hit against me on the river today. I'm not giving my opponent the odds to hit his draw but who needs pot odds or implied odds when you have luck on your side? I have them beaten all ends up apart from the few flush outs and still they pluck them out the deck. It gets worse too. More than once I have had two-outers hit for the villain on the river this afternoon. That's seriously frustrating. I'm trying to protect my hands with bets and raises but what else can you do when they are calling you down? I've tried varying my bet sizes too, overbetting the pot from time to time and still they come at me with half a hand that makes a bigger hand than mine by the time all five community cards are out there. I'm basing reads on player stats, stack sizes, position and so on to give me an idea of hand ranges and I'm still taking so many beatings it's unreal. Grinding these SnGs on PokerStars is becoming depressing; I can't wait to get that bonus and move on. I get my money in good - I get outdrawn. I go card dead for levels at a time and am forced to shove my short-stack in with the best hand I have seen for ages - outdrawn, or facing a big pocket pair.

Maybe I am too quick to raise/call all-in with semi-strong Aces like AJ because they always seem to be up against a bigger Ace or a pocket pair. Just as I was typing that I got AQs beaten by J8s! And then AJo against TT with the pocket pair holding up. I seriously don't know what I have to do to win a hand these days. These hands almost always crop up when I am have an awkward stack - call the raise and I'm basically pot-committed anyway but when I shove over the top they call and either have me crushed or win the coin-flip.

I played a lot more SnGs this afternoon (15) than I would in a normal afternoon simply because I wasn't getting very far in them. I had 8 bust-outs (2 x 4th, 3 x 5th, 3 x 6th) before I got my first cash this afternoon. Since then I have recorded a couple of 3rds but plenty more busts too. It's been a long, painful afternoon but thankfully it will soon be over. I seem to be nailed on for 5th or 6th in this final SnG given the relative chip stacks

[mathare]

I seem to be nailed on for 5th or 6th in this final SnG given the relative chip stacks

Nope, 3rd - after losing a 70/30 on the river

[mathare]

28th January 2010 (part two)
I calmed down a bit over tea and got over the afternoon session to some degree. I decided the best thing to do was to pick myself up, brush myself off and get playing again. A rotten set of results, yes, but not one I was going to let beat me. It was a downswing, right, but that's why we have a bankroll isn't it? And all told it was only a 6 buy-in downswing - a couple of wins and it's all back again.

I can't fit that much poker in to an evening session as I can't usually sit down to play till 8pm and like to have it all wrapped up in time for bead around 10.30pm, and that includes entering all the results (tourney summaries) into PokerTracker. I managed 7 SnGs tonight with 5 cashs (2 x 2nd, 3 x 3rd) plus a 4th and a 7th. But the stinking luck is still with me, only tonight it was at least waiting till I was in the money most of the time before sinking me. Look at some of my bust outs this evening:

A6s v A3o - flop comes A-T-3 leaving me behind, turn and river are bricks. I was 60/40 ahead when it all went in pre-flop (halving splits)
ATs v A9s - K-Q-4 flops, one of his suit. Turn is T in his suit and he rivers the flush. It's around 70/30 to me pre-flop, 76/24 on the flop and 75/25 on the river. I was always well ahead on this one but he pulled it out on the river, again.
87s v A5s - flop comes 7-A-8 and it's here that the money goes in (my doing). I'm 68/32 to the good when the turn comes down a 9 to give him more outs but I am still better than a coin-flip (just about). He hits a 5 on the river to make a bigger two pair and I bust out.
AKo v J7o - this is a heads-up hand so at least I'd made the cash here but pre-flop I am ahead 67/33. Effective stacks are only around 6xBB - 3xBB goes in pre-flop, the rest when the flop comes down 3-T-9 and I shove my overcards with a small stack and fingers crossed. When he flips J7o I know exactly what's going to happen even though I am still a significant favourite. Turn is a 6 taking me up to 77% chance of winning and the river is his gutshot 8!
KK v A9o - I'm 71/29 ahead pre-flop although the money only really goes in on the flop which was 4-Q-5 rainbow and enough to put me 85/15 in front. Turn is a 7 putting me 93/7 ahead so he's drawing to 3 outs (the Aces). And the river is indeed one of those three Aces.

That KK v A9o bust out was especially frustrating. He was drawing to 3 outs The eliminations I haven't posted up were fair enough but in all of those above I am ahead when the money goes in, often well ahead, but I can't get hands to stand up when it matters.

Oh well. A profit of $15.50 reduces the daily loss to a total of $17.50 so the picture looks a little healthier now than it did at tea-time at least. And tomorrow is another day (of being rivered, no doubt )

[mathare]

28th January 2010 (part three)
I forgot about the notes I made during play :splapme

Log 50,000 tournament hands - Done

I'm up to 50,617 hands now so let's set a new target:
Log 60,000 tournament hands

Am I c-betting too often short-handed (when the blinds are high and effective stacks quite short)? I c-be close to 100% in these situations but I need to have a look in PT3 to see whether this tactic is working for me or not because I seem to be suffering from it lately with opponents either floating me or 3-betting me and when I don't have much (or any) of the flop I am in a pickle to say the least. I often end up folding and being left with an awkwardly short stack. I might be better checking the flop and seeing what the turn brings. I'll try and have a look at this in PT3 tomorrow if I remember...

[mathare]

Am I c-betting too often short-handed (when the blinds are high and effective stacks quite short)? I'll try and have a look at this in PT3 tomorrow if I remember...

Nope, I'm doing fine here. It's just variance and short-term luck that has me thinking I am doing poorly here. PokerTracker shows this to be a profitable move so I should carry on as I have been, really.

[mathare]

29th January 2010
One of those afternoons again - yes, another one - where it doesn't seem to matter if I get my money in good, I will still be outdrawn and when I am forced to take risks and make moves I will come up against relative monsters. The frustration at all these bad beats has probably put me on tilt. I usually pride myself on my tilt control but I have to admit that I am not playing my best and am thinking I will probably lose hands I should be winning. I'm not steaming my cash (or chips) away though. Perhaps I am even spurning too many opportunities, opportunities I should be taking but I am concerned about yet another bad beat so fold and wait for a bigger and better hand to come along which results in me being short-stacked, forced into moves and then up against bigger hands. It seems that whenever I get into prime steal positions, with stacks that I need to make a move with, that my opponents wake up with much stronger hands than one would expect them to have in those circumstances. After dozens of trash hands I'll get A9s with 8xBB left in my stack and shove when it's folded to me on the button but one of the blinds will have AQ or AK and it will hold up, inevitably. My opponents even took to flashing me their massive hands when I paused for a few seconds to consider the steal but chickened out; the BB would flash me a much bigger hand than the one I was thinking of stealing with. Sheesh!

Still...
Unlock 1st stellar reward bonus - Done
I am not setting the second stellar reward bonus as an objective as I'm not sure I will be around long enough to claim it. I plan to unlock that stage 1 deposit bonus and then re-evaluate where I stand at PokerStars.

I got through 14 SnGs this afternoon to complete that bonus but it's only $10, and I actually need to manually claim it rather than it being automatically added to my account and I haven't got round to it yet. It's there, waiting for me though. That was perhaps the only bright spot in a rough afternoon that saw me log another losing session but this time only to the tune of $0.50 with 1 x 1st, 2 x 2nd and 3 x 3rd. I don't intend to go through all my eliminations but the ones I have noted down are:
1. "played very patiently 3-handed but ran QQ into KK" - my first good hand for ages although I had done some stealing to keep my stack alive and when I get QQ and manage to get it all in I am delighted, till he flips over KK. Why when I get a good hand do they have to have a better one?
2. "ahead when it went all-in pre-flop but he hit on the turn and the river blanked" - I think (I can't be bothered to look) this was a dominated Ace contest. No, I have just checked and it was my ATo against Q8o with him hitting a Q on the turn. Pfft! I was 65/35 pre-flop and 80/20 on the flop too.
3. "mechanical error - meant to fold rather than call all-in but was ahead when money went in, rivered by 6-outer!" - oh yes, I remember this one as I busted in 9th after 2 minutes play! Third hand of the tournament and I have AKo. I raise pre-flop to 3xBB (60) and get two callers. Flop comes A-K-5 rainbow. It's checked to me, I bet 120 - a fold and a call follow. The turn is a Ten and the villain shoves for 1320 into a pot of 430 so it's a massive overbet. I click my time bank to give me a few more seconds to think this through. Top two is a good hand but he could have called a pre-flop raise with TT, a weaker Ace (but probably still a broadway Ace), pocket Queens or Jacks but AA and KK are unlikely (he'd have raised before now) and AK is of course possible but that's a huge overbet and I can't call it can I? I mean to click the fold button but I accidentally click the call button. Argh! Villain flips QTo and I am way ahead. The four Jacks give him the gutshot straight and of course he has the two remaining Tens (no flushes are possible) and guess what the river is...a Ten. Mechanical error for clicking the wrong button, a bit of luck being so far ahead when I did accidentally call and then that kick in the balls on the river, Gee, thanks.
4. "needed to make a move w/ short-stack in position but ran into bigger Ace" - I had A9o and ran into AQ in the blinds, just as I said earlier really.
5. "AQo v ATo - lost" - I have him dominated but still lose the hand. Typical of my luck in the past week or so.

One thing I have noticed, and one that worries me, is that I seem to hit short-handed play with a pretty small stack most of the time. Tight is right early on, I get that and play it pretty well but should I be taking a slight risk with the medium pocket pairs (77,88) and KQ when there have been 2 or 3 limpers before me? I seem to fold my way to 25/50 or beyond and thus have 10 or 12xBB when we hit 50/100 which means I will need to start thinking about making some moves soon. The other common scenario is big Ace early on, pre-flop raise and flop bet (sometimes a turn bet too) before it becomes obvious I am beaten when I still haven't hit the board and I have lost a few hundred chips. I need to look at ways of building my stack even slightly in the early stages so I am not in jeopardy as soon as we reach level 4 of the tournament.

[mathare]

31st January 2010
Yesterday was pretty much a day off for me, partly to let the remaining tilt wash away but also because fitting in much poker wasn't really practical given my other commitments. I played one heads-up SnG (I am fitting these in now and then just for practice at this stage really) which I won comfortably but that was it.

Today, however, was a different story. I am getting increasingly keen to play enough to get that deposit bonus in my account which meant, before today's play, fitting in another 83 SnGs before the end of the 12th Feb. Easy enough but I still need to take the time to play a good number each day. I'd like that bonus as soon as possible; I don't want a last minute panic to get the requisite number of tourneys played. I managed 9 this afternoon and another 6 this evening for a total of 15, obviously. When have 9 and 6 ever summed to anything else? As well as playing a good number of events I wanted to make sure I was playing well so while I could have played more this afternoon (and one or two more this evening) I wanted to watch Arsenal v Man Utd so I didn't try to cram in too many tourneys so I could remain focused on them and then use the football as a reward for playing well. And I think it must have worked as I profited to the tune of $36 this afternoon and another $30 this evening making it my most profitable day yet. It didn't all go my way but I kept my head (mostly - I got carried away in one event and busted out quickly when I massively overvalued JJ) and played well, taking my opportunities when they came and getting a bit of luck along the way, which makes a change. In those 15 tourneys there were 4 wins, 3 second places and 2 thirds for another good ITM ratio and an excellent ROI as well.

No more objectives met today but I'm getting closer to some of them for sure. And more importantly I am making a few quid along the way. My profit for this month now stands at $228.60 which I am pretty happy with. I think I'd have taken that at the start of the month if offered it. I just hope I can keep this standard of play up now and build on what is a decent enough start to 2010.

[mathare]

1st February 2010
Another good afternoon with a profit of $28.50 from 12 SnGs with tow wins, three second places and a third. I played well, got a bit of luck along the way (about time too!) and tried to make the most of all the opportunities I had. I nursed short stacks back to life and didn't panic at any point. I'm really pleased with my overall standard of play today. It looks like that day off on Saturday has done me the world of good.

Another piece of good news too:
Increase PokerStars balance to $300 - Done
That means a new objective, of course:
Increase PokerStars balance to $350.

It's really pleasing to have seen my balance at PokerStars rise from $57.90 to over $300 while learning a lot more about SnGs and the nuances of play. I'm getting closer to that bonus too. I still haven't spent the 1 loyalty point I need to part with to get the $10 stellar reward bonus yet but I am now only 56 SnGs away from the deposit bonus. In theory, I can lose every one of those 56 SnGs without busting my PokerStars account so whatever happens this adventure has been profitable as the bonus is worth more than I had in my account when I started. I don't want to go on a run of 56 tourneys without a cash though, don't get me wrong, just saying that I am now in a position where I am guaranteed a profit.

[mathare]

2nd February 2010
Not so good today, I couldn't get going in (m)any of the 10 SnGs I played and could only manage two seconds and two thirds for a loss of $10 on the session. The cards weren't coming when I needed them and the luck has swung the other way from yesterday and I am back to being rivered. There were a few occasions when I had built up a medium stack and felt I had a hand good enough to tackle the short stacks' shoves but I was often outdrawn. The real indicator that it wasn't going to be my day came in one tourney where it was down to the last three. I had AK against 22 and the winner of this hand was set to take a massive chip lead as myself and the villain were close in chips and a little way ahead of the other fella. It was a coin flip pre-flop and he was ahead on the flop of 4-4-J but when a second Jack came on the turn the momentum switched and he was drawing to just two outs (the 2s). I don't need to tell you what the river was but I was down to just a few chips, less than 1xBB, and eliminated in third a couple of hands later. Rivered by a two-outer, pfft!

I'm not going to get upset about a $10 loss today though. My results for this month (today and yesterday) still show a profit and at a ROI of just over 15% - a figure I am happy with long-term. Anyway, I said yesterday that I could theoretically lose all the remaining SnGs and still come out ahead but now I have cashed in four today I have effectively locked in more profit.