Six Nations hedging

[mathare]

I have got myself into a position whereby I effectively have a hefty bet on next weekend's game between Wales and Ireland and I am thinking of trying to hedge my way out of it.

By following a number of sports advisory services (I don't know much at all about rugby myself) I am in a position whereby I have the following bets:
3pts no grand slam winner @ 4/6
3pts no grand slam winner @ 8/13
1pt Wales to win triple crown @ 9/4
3pts Wales to win 6 Nations at 3/1
2pts Wales to win 6 Nations at 2/1

You can see that puts me very much on the side of Ireland not winning. If Ireland win next weekend I lose 12pts because all the above bets lose. If Wales win then I win the top 3 bets and may win the other two depending on the scoreline. I think I need Wales to win by 13pts to win all the bets but it all depends on how the table is ordered. Does it go points then goal difference (or whatever it's called) or is the result of the game between two teams tied on points used to decide the order?

So my possible results (assuming goal difference is used to split tied sides) are:
Ireland win = Lose 12pts
Wales win by less than 13pts = Win 1.1pts
Wales win by 13pts or more = Win 19.1pts

Personally I can't see Wales winning by enough to give me the maximum win, and I can see Ireland winning (although bear in mind I know little about this game). So should I be backing Ireland next weekend to hedge off some of my bets?

[yerotsluap]

The only thing I see with Ireland is all this pressure on them to get their first grand slam since 1948 could get to them. After seeing today's game between England and France, if England can do that then so can Wales. A lot depends on the team that Gatland picks, I'd have thought Henson and Shanklin in the centres with Roberts on the bench, especially as so many of their main guys were rested at the weekend.

[mathare]

So let the bets ride or hedge would you say?

Paddy Power have priced it up early as Wales 4/5, Ireland evens with the handicap set at Ireland +1 so it looks like they are expecting Wales to squeak it in a tight match. That said, applying a bit of lateral thinking and taking Ireland to win the Grand Slam is 13/10 at Totesport and is basically the same as Ireland to win the match. In fact an Ireland tie against Wales would net that bet too.

[yerotsluap]

So let the bets ride or hedge would you say?

Paddy Power have priced it up early as Wales 4/5, Ireland evens with the handicap set at Ireland +1 so it looks like they are expecting Wales to squeak it in a tight match. That said, applying a bit of lateral thinking and taking Ireland to win the Grand Slam is 13/10 at Totesport and is basically the same as Ireland to win the match. In fact an Ireland tie against Wales would net that bet too.

I think I would have to agree with the way its priced up, I think Wales will win but not by the necessary amount to win the championship, so I'd probably say Ireland to win the championship on points difference so I'd hedge the bets if it was me

[sparkyminer]

My thoughts are, the Bog Hoppers won't beat the Velcro Glove wearers next Saturday but it'll be close.:D

[counterfeit]

The Wales team will bear no resemblance to the side that played Italy so don't use that game as a benchmark. The Welsh pack had only 2 players that will probably play this week and it was that area of the game that allowed Italy to stop the Welsh backs getting the ball.

Wales were poor against France but ... playing in Paris is a totally different propostion to playing in Cardiff.

The result may be quite close but one thing that is almost guaranteed is that both sides will really be going for it. It could end up as one of those ridiculous 33-30 games.

As far as the betting is concerned I would definitely try to limit your liabilities on this match.

[mathare]

Thanks for all your input so far. I'd like to hedge at least some of these liabilities off but I am struggling to get my head round it. It's the fact there are three possible outcomes that's confusing me.

I can back Ireland to beat Wales at 5/4. Say I put 10pts on that. I am now about even if Ireland win the match on Saturday (+0.5pts profit overall). However, if Wales win by less than 13 points I lose 8.9pts and I win 9.1pts if they win by 13 or more. So 1 point in the match could cost me 18pts (the difference between Wales winning by 12 points and losing me 8.9pts or winning by 13pts and netting me 9.1pts). At present the bets I already have could have 18pts riding on one point by the Welsh but at least I make a profit whether they win by 1 point or by 13 points plus.

Or I could back Ireland to win the Six Nations at 2/9 and then I win that bet if Ireland win or if Wales win by less than 13 points. I can't stick enough on at that price to wipe out that much of my potential loss on the Irish winning though.

Popular opinion, and the odds, seem to suggest a Wales win is quite likely so should I be hedging? I win if Wales win by any score, and more so if they win by 13 points or more. If Ireland win I lose a wedge but that's gambling isn't it?

[MattR]

Mat there's a Wales -12.5 market on Betfair, maybe you could lay them on that?

[mathare]

Mat there's a Wales -12.5 market on Betfair, maybe you could lay them on that?

It's basically the same as the grand slam/triple crown market though. Isn't it?

I could lay Wales at around 5.0 on that market, but factor in commission and I'm not really any better off than backing Ireland for the Six Nations at 2/9 am I?

[MattR]

Hmm, no I guess not. Although if you do decide to hedge something at least if you do it on an exchange you may get to lay off your stake for a free hedge.

[sparkyminer]

(I don't know much at all about rugby myself)

Remember 'The Webmaster' and his chess bet?:D

[mathare]

Remember 'The Webmaster' and his chess bet?:D

Oh yes! But this is different as I am following a sports advisory service rather than just making it up for myself. I don't know much about horse racing either but am following the Win2Win tips and even won the joint effort last month.

I'll steer clear of betting on board games though

[mathare]

I decided against hedging and the full bet rides on the match this evening. Come on Wales!!

[mathare]

So close! Nay mind though