Thread: Six Nations hedging
15th March 2009 #1
Six Nations hedging
I have got myself into a position whereby I effectively have a hefty bet on next weekend's game between Wales and Ireland and I am thinking of trying to hedge my way out of it.
By following a number of sports advisory services (I don't know much at all about rugby myself) I am in a position whereby I have the following bets:
3pts no grand slam winner @ 4/6
3pts no grand slam winner @ 8/13
1pt Wales to win triple crown @ 9/4
3pts Wales to win 6 Nations at 3/1
2pts Wales to win 6 Nations at 2/1
You can see that puts me very much on the side of Ireland not winning. If Ireland win next weekend I lose 12pts because all the above bets lose. If Wales win then I win the top 3 bets and may win the other two depending on the scoreline. I think I need Wales to win by 13pts to win all the bets but it all depends on how the table is ordered. Does it go points then goal difference (or whatever it's called) or is the result of the game between two teams tied on points used to decide the order?
So my possible results (assuming goal difference is used to split tied sides) are:
Ireland win = Lose 12pts
Wales win by less than 13pts = Win 1.1pts
Wales win by 13pts or more = Win 19.1pts
Personally I can't see Wales winning by enough to give me the maximum win, and I can see Ireland winning (although bear in mind I know little about this game). So should I be backing Ireland next weekend to hedge off some of my bets?
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