Flat Betting Strategy: Relying on the consistent older horses
Betting on the flat can be a tricky business as the season begins, so concentrating on older horses with proven form can often pay its way writes Wayne Bailey...
The UK flat season kicks off this weekend, but it can be difficult at the start of the season trying to assess contests full of unraced two-year-olds, while not all three-year-olds can replicate last year's form. But the older animals have usually been around for a while and I find it easier to predict how well or otherwise they will run.
They say that the key to this game is to specialise - a friend of mine for example will focus solely on three-year-old maiden races for the next couple of months, while others like to get stuck into the handicaps. Each to their own and it's important do find a niche that pays its way. Personally, I'm not too keen on races for younger horses at this time of the year; I prefer to concentrate on the older horses - especially those that have proved themselves in the past.
Races for horses aged 4+ are particular favourites of mine as you get plenty of animals that have been around the block more than once; and they've matured enough for their form to stand up against the past. You can find the age restriction information in the race title.
Since 2003, there's been 39,227 races restricted to 4yo+ in the UK and Ireland and using a pin, you'll get a strike-rate of 8.4%. I'm stating the obvious here, but it's pretty easy to get the strike rate up by concentrating on horses that have done well in the past.
The table below shows how well or otherwise horses perform in races for 4yo+ based on career placings in the UK or Ireland. As you can see, the horses with a greater percentage of career placings go on to win more races:
If we isolate horses that have placed in every single career run, we get 65 winners from 234 races (27.78%) since 2003 and a profit of just over 65 points.
Of course, such horses are going to have less career runs under the belt as it would be near impossible to keep up a 100% place strike-rate with animals that are racing on a regular basis. Indeed, 65 of those horses had just one race under the belt, 58 had raced twice, 39 had races three times, 24 had raced four times, 20 had raced five times, while 28 had raced six or more times.
I'm never keen on backing horses that have raced just once so I usually cut those out of the equation and I've found that doing so drops a lot of inconsistent sorts.
I'm NOT telling punters to back these horses in a systematic way; you must still consider the other horses in the race! But it's a strategy that has worked well for me in the past few years and has highlighted some great betting opportunities along the way. So to summarise:
* 4yo+ Flat turf races
* Horse was placed in every career run
* Horse has raced at least twice
Since 2003, the above has produced 50 winners from 169 bets (29.59%) and had you stuck a tenner on each, you would show a profit of £776 to industry SP. However, my own records show a much better return to Betfair prices. Interestingly, the handicaps have a higher strike-rate than non-handicaps but both prove profitable. Last year's winners included Phoenix Tower (Newmarket) priced [19.0] on Betfair, Sabana Perdida (Ascot) priced [5.30], and Mad Rush (Haydock) priced [3.80]. As usual, I'll report back later on in the season with profit/loss.
Thoughts and comments are most welcome!
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Originally Posted by Win2WinRSS
...so have a high turnover.....
